A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

Hanley's hitting has been an enigma. As you say, he goes off here and there but in between looks weak and turns into a rally killer. What is the difference when he hit? Is it a weak opponent pitcher? Is it that he gets angry or focused? His body of work hasn't been very good for a first baseman and is likely to get worse as he ages. When you pay a guy $22 million a year, you should expect a very effective hitter and decent field player. We have gotten better play at first then his experiment in the outfield but his hitting remains in question.

 

I don't think we need to replace HanRam to be highly competitive next year, but I'm not projecting him to be above #15 at 1B WAR next year. He'll probably be near #20.

 

With Moncada getting very close at 3B, a slight chance of Pablo's pride kicking in and him returning to his form of several years ago, and Sam Travis returning from injury aall joining Shaw and Hanram in competition for 3 openings (3B, 1B and DH) maybe we'll be fine there. I certainly feel better here than with the pitching staff.

[southpaw777]

Han Ram is the 1b in my eyes. Hes done a great job overall defensively for being brand new there. The bat has been down this year and last year he was hurt so you cant go there.

No need to move him, or platoon him. There may be competition at 1b or there may not be...the job its Henley's to lose. To me , hes earned that job. Not worried about his bat. Getting over a shoulder injury and working at a brand new position can do that.

[oldtimer]

I don't think we need to replace HanRam to be highly competitive next year, but I'm not projecting him to be above #15 at 1B WAR next year. He'll probably be near #20.

 

With Moncada getting very close at 3B, a slight chance of Pablo's pride kicking in and him returning to his form of several years ago, and Sam Travis returning from injury aall joining Shaw and Hanram in competition for 3 openings (3B, 1B and DH) maybe we'll be fine there. I certainly feel better here than with the pitching staff.

 

I would consider replacing Hanley for next season if we can get out of his contract somewhat cheaply. I warrant, that he has done a decent to good job defensively at first base, but having a middle of the lineup power hitter that is inconsistent at bat and who is ageing, is not what will make the club a pennant contender. I note that the Yankees have been getting rid of their older non-productive players and even trading some of their pitching assets to get solid young players. All of a sudden they are winning and may surprise a lot of people and catch the Red Sox in the standings. You noted some of our young assets who may compete for the 3 positions where we need a boost. If we can fill two of those from within, we can possibly find a DH from within. Thinking Young and Swihart.

 

I agree that our pitching needs the most work.

[notin]

I don't think we need to replace HanRam to be highly competitive next year, but I'm not projecting him to be above #15 at 1B WAR next year. He'll probably be near #20.

 

With Moncada getting very close at 3B, a slight chance of Pablo's pride kicking in and him returning to his form of several years ago, and Sam Travis returning from injury aall joining Shaw and Hanram in competition for 3 openings (3B, 1B and DH) maybe we'll be fine there. I certainly feel better here than with the pitching staff.

 

I think Sam Travis will need to get healthy first before anyone re-arranges the infield to accommodate him...

[notin]

no, but every bad start equates with the trade not being worth it. every bad start equates with some of us wishing this trade never happened.

the flip side would be that every great start would make us forget all about Espinoza. i really wish we had the flip side. but we dont. thanks DD.

 

Not to mention, every bad start by Pomeranz just further drives home how poorly Dombrowski has used his trade resources. The Sox certainly could have gotten something better than this...

[S5Dewey]

Not to mention, every bad start by Pomeranz just further drives home how poorly Dombrowski has used his trade resources. The Sox certainly could have gotten something better than this...

 

"Fast backward" one year and substitute "Porcillo" for "Pomeranz".

[Spudboy]

Hanley's hitting has been an enigma. As you say, he goes off here and there but in between looks weak and turns into a rally killer. What is the difference when he hit? Is it a weak opponent pitcher? Is it that he gets angry or focused? His body of work hasn't been very good for a first baseman and is likely to get worse as he ages. When you pay a guy $22 million a year, you should expect a very effective hitter and decent field player. We have gotten better play at first then his experiment in the outfield but his hitting remains in question.

 

Many of us who raged on him last year are just relieved that he not only has not s*** all over himself at 1st base but that he actually looks pretty good there most of the time.

 

However, we still have not seen a sustained run of offensive output from someone who was one of the best RHH in the game.

 

Maybe those days are gone? I hope not.

[Behindenemylines]

As bad as the Sox have played since the All-Star break they are only 2 games out of first. It is there for the taking. All three AL East teams are flawed teams and is the reason why known of them will run away with the division. Sox get the pitching they have just as good of a shot as the other two.

[moonslav59]

Han Ram is the 1b in my eyes. Hes done a great job overall defensively for being brand new there. The bat has been down this year and last year he was hurt so you cant go there.

No need to move him, or platoon him. There may be competition at 1b or there may not be...the job its Henley's to lose. To me , hes earned that job. Not worried about his bat. Getting over a shoulder injury and working at a brand new position can do that.

 

I strongly disagree with your use of the words "great job overall defensively". While he's probably done better tahn anyone expected him to do, I think calling him an average fielder at 1B is an over-statement.

He hasn't looked horrible, but he hasn't looked good either, to me.

 

There are 30 1Bmen in MLB with 300 or more PAs . Here's how HanRam ranks:

 

38 1Bmen with 250+ innings:

 

21st on fangraph's value rating on defense (-2.8)/ 27th in UZR (-1.4)

24th in UZR/150 at -2.8

30th in DRS at -4

31st in Inside Edge scoring

 

[moonslav59]

More on 1B next year. I think Shaw would be a much better 1Bman than HanRam, especially if he can learn to hit lefties.

 

Maybe, if Shaw turns out to be a platoon player, Shaw could play 1B vs RHPs, HanRAm vs LHPs and then maybe HanRam DHs vs RHPs (although HanRam is looking like a platoon candidate asw ell, despite his hefty contract).

 

Here are the 2015-2016 rankings/numbers at 1B with 36 1Bmen having 650 innings there:

 

UZR/150

1 Shaw (+15.0)

30 HanRam -2.8

 

DRS

17 Shaw (+2)

26 HanRam (-4)

 

RngR

7.4 Shaw

-0.7 HanRam

 

ErrR

1.6 Shaw

-0.7 HanRam

 

DPR

0.2 Shaw

0.0 HanRam

 

To me, it's more about how good a fielder Moncada will be at 3B on the decision to move Shaw to 1B - not who is better at 1B: Shaw or HanRam.

 

[moonslav59]

I think Sam Travis will need to get healthy first before anyone re-arranges the infield to accommodate him...

 

Agreed. I just threw his name in there as a possible contender, but that might not happen at all in 2017.

[moonslav59]

Steven Wright was just placed on the 15 day DL.

 

HanRam is on the 3 day bereavement list.

 

All in time for our 5 cities in 5 nights and 3 flights in 4 days start to our 11 game road stretch.

[a700hitter]

Steven Wright was just placed on the 15 day DL.

 

HanRam is on the 3 day bereavement list.

 

All in time for our 5 cities in 5 nights and 3 flights in 4 days start to our 11 game road stretch.

Thanks Farrell, you dope. Your stupidity will cost us the Division and maybe even cost us a Wild Card spot.

[Spudboy]

Thanks Farrell, you dope. Your stupidity will cost us the Division and maybe even cost us a Wild Card spot.

 

What a f***tard.

[moonslav59]

 

Counting today...

 

4 cities in 5 days.

 

3 flights in 4 days.

 

Tough way to start an 11 game road trip!

 

I think Farrell was right to give almost everyone a day off before this crucial stretch against fellow contenders.

 

[Kimmi]

Thanks Farrell, you dope. Your stupidity will cost us the Division and maybe even cost us a Wild Card spot.

 

This is really an absurd comment.

[sk7326]

Fascinating stretch here ...

 

There is the make-up game today, and the 6 games against the teams we are fighting for Wild Card position. Obviously, an 0-7 is a disaster, but most likely we will end this week with the standings not changing a whole lot.

 

But the big stretch to me are the 16 games that come after that:

 

4 at Tampa

home for 7 (4 with Tampa, 3 with KC)

6 in California (3 at Oakland, 3 at San Diego)

 

16 straight against below .500 teams ... a really good chance to hulk up and perhaps get some real breathing room in this hunt.

[a700hitter]

This is really an absurd comment.

I think it may be prophetic, unfortunately.

[StephenCurry30]

if wright misses an extended period of time, and buchholz shits the bed and we miss the playoffs, farrell will look like one of the biggest idiots in baseball. which he already is considering one of the biggest, so this will be impressive if he can pull it off.

[SoxnCycles]

Yup, Farrel should have known Wright would handle himself like a little leaguer out there.

[a700hitter]

Yup, Farrel should have known Wright would handle himself like a little leaguer out there.

Especially since he hasn't run the bases since he was just a little older than a little leaguer.

[StephenCurry30]

Considering That Wright has been in professional ball since 2007 and has never ran the bases once, not in the MLB, or minor leagues, then yes, Farrell should consider that Wright who had 0 experience might run the bases like an idiot. So yes, this is on Farrell. Pinch running with a starting pitcher who doesn't ever run the bases, and rarely even has an AB (5 CAREER MLB ABS, 0 career minor league ABs) is a dumb ass f***ing move and its no surprise whatsoever that it backfired.

[moonslav59]

Considering That Wright has been in professional ball since 2007 and has never ran the bases once, not in the MLB, or minor leagues, then yes, Farrell should consider that Wright who had 0 experience might run the bases like an idiot. So yes, this is on Farrell. Pinch running with a starting pitcher who doesn't ever run the bases, and rarely even has an AB (5 CAREER MLB ABS, 0 career minor league ABs) is a dumb ass f***ing move and its no surprise whatsoever that it backfired.

 

Gotta think that if we had won on a base hit with Wright barely beating the throw, the narrative would be different now.

 

Actually, there's be no narrative. It would be a tiny footnote in history.

[StephenCurry30]

No, I called the move stupid when it happened. it made no sense.

[moonslav59]

No, I called the move stupid when it happened. it made no sense.

 

So, if he'd barely scored on a base hit, you'd be hear complaining about it still?

[a700hitter]

Gotta think that if we had won on a base hit with Wright barely beating the throw, the narrative would be different now.

 

Actually, there's be no narrative. It would be a tiny footnote in history.

But we didn't. And there was a higher probability of trouble when he put a guy out there that had never run the bases in the majors or the minors than if someone else had run.

[StephenCurry30]

Would I still be complaining about it? No, but you can look, I said it was dumb when it happened, and most people around baseball questioned it and guess what? It didn't work and the guy with no experience got injured, why are we still talking about it? because its still effecting our team, in a pennant race we just lost our ERA leader because our manager got him injured pinch running.

 

If Farrell started David Ortiz at SS, and Sox won, would you think it was a good move?

[sk7326]

The thing about MMQBing this is figuring out - what was the alternative. Burning a reliever? A different starter? Could you argue that Wright should not have taken an ambitious lead? It was weird to think that Wright would be faster than Ortiz (aside from the fact that most people under the age of 60 are).

[Bellhorn04]

The thing about MMQBing this is figuring out - what was the alternative. Burning a reliever? A different starter? Could you argue that Wright should not have taken an ambitious lead? It was weird to think that Wright would be faster than Ortiz (aside from the fact that most people under the age of 60 are).

 

Wright might be a little faster than Ortiz but you can't really expect him to have much clue how to run the bases...so it doesn't seem like much was gained replacing Ortiz with him.

[Jasonbay44]

Wright himself admitted he was trying to get a good secondary lead so that he could score from 2nd on a double. If with two outs in an inning where he is running on contact, he is concerned about scoring from 2nd on a double, that should tell you all you need to know about how "fast" Wright is.

 

“That's why I more like dove, jump backed to the bag vs. slide, because it caught me off guard," Wright said. "I didn't think my lead was that big and I panicked, I just jumped back. My initial reaction was 'don't get picked off.' That's the last thing I wanted to do. If the ball's hit hard — I wasn't going to try to score like other hitters would on a single, I wanted to make sure I had a good enough secondary where if it's a double, I could score. But that's what I did, I jumped back to the bag, and I just happened to land on my arm the wrong way. One of those things at first, I was thinking the worst, I was thinking labrum because of the way I felt, but I'm glad that it's not.”

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2016/08/steven_wright_hurt_shoulder_pinch_running_replaced_by_clay