A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

Bryce played better in AA than Benintendi. Stop making the prospect out to be something more than he is right now. Someday he'll be better than Brentz, but that day is not today.

 

Again, small sample sizes and apples to oranges on ages:

 

Brentz .819 OPS at AA in 552 PAs (ages 23 & 27)

A Beni .815 OPS at AA in 241 PAs (age 21)

[mvp 78]

Again, small sample sizes and apples to oranges on ages:

 

Brentz .819 OPS at AA in 552 PAs (ages 23 & 27)

A Beni .815 OPS at AA in 241 PAs (age 21)

 

Bryce is a known commodity right now. Benintendi is not. He is just as likely to bomb as Brentz is today.

[Hugh2]

Again, small sample sizes and apples to oranges on ages:

 

Brentz .819 OPS at AA in 552 PAs (ages 23 & 27)

A Beni .815 OPS at AA in 241 PAs (age 21)

 

I agree, Benitendi is much younger than Brentz was at this age, about two years younger. That doesn't make Brentz slash line look all that better, actually I'd put much more weight into Andrews stats seeing how much more age advanced he is.

 

Also, I think it's worth noting that Andrew Benintendis BB/K rate is 22/30 in Portland while Bryce's was 40/130. Andrew is showing much much much better plate discipline. Many consider BB/K rate one of the best predictors of MLB success. For that reason I don't think he's as likely to bomb as Brentz, because Brentz has already effectively bombed. He was a first round draft college bat who doesn't have the power, defense, or speed to even carry himself as a 4th outfielder right now. With Andrew Benintendi's speed/defense combo I think he has much more of a chance of at least sticking on a MLB roster as a 4th outfielder rather than the up/down guy Bryce has been.

[d-money]

What some people call 'clutch', I call 'lucky'. They are 15-14 in blowout games. That's not a good sign.

 

Idk if you can say that. In the playoffs the games will be low scoring.

[bowman]

Bryce is nothing. A fill in guy that wouldn't even be on the team if it weren't for some injuries. Last night showed how poor our bench was when we had the bases loaded again and no one good to pinch hit.

[illinoisredsox]

Bryce is nothing. A fill in guy that wouldn't even be on the team if it weren't for some injuries. Last night showed how poor our bench was when we had the bases loaded again and no one good to pinch hit.

 

ESPN sort of addressed that last night. The Red Sox have a bunch of guys who virtually play every day. The bench players never really get much of a chance. One or 2 ABs a week is not going to keep anyone sharp.

[Jasonbay44]

ESPN sort of addressed that last night. The Red Sox have a bunch of guys who virtually play every day. The bench players never really get much of a chance. One or 2 ABs a week is not going to keep anyone sharp.

 

They also brought up another good point - which is why didn't we use Aaron Hill? That AB you would assume would be the reason we got Hill..

[illinoisredsox]

They also brought up another good point - which is why didn't we use Aaron Hill? That AB you would assume would be the reason we got Hill..

 

I've posted about that a couple of times. If they had sent Hill up, the Tigers would counter witha righthander, probably KRod. Holt has struggled against southpaws (nt too many PAs against them). this season (although he over .300 against them last year). Holt was also something like 8-11 getting guys in from 3rd this year. Hill is 2-11 against KRod lifetime. So your choice probably that or having Holt face a lefty who was nearing 40 pitches and had already allowed 4 hits and a run in the inning.

 

Unappetizing choice either way. Frankly, I may gone after the struggling pitcher as they did. But the one thing Holt couldn't do he did (to borrow a phrase used by the late, great Tiger broadcaster Ernie Harwell), "stood there like the house at the side of the road and watched it go by".

[Jasonbay44]

I've posted about that a couple of times. If they had sent Hill up, the Tigers would counter witha righthander, probably KRod. Holt has struggled against southpaws (nt too many PAs against them). this season (although he over .300 against them last year). Holt was also something like 8-11 getting guys in from 3rd this year. Hill is 2-11 against KRod lifetime. So your choice probably that or having Holt face a lefty who was nearing 40 pitches and had already allowed 4 hits and a run in the inning.

 

Unappetizing choice either way. Frankly, I may gone after the struggling pitcher as they did. But the one thing Holt couldn't do he did (to borrow a phrase used by the late, great Tiger broadcaster Ernie Harwell), "stood there like the house at the side of the road and watched it go by".

Didn't Brentz pinch hit for Shaw? I would've preferred Hill, even knowing it would force K-Rod in, I just trust him more at the plate, 2-12 is a small sample size and Brentz has been struggling a bit since his hot start.

[illinoisredsox]

Didn't Brentz pinch hit for Shaw? I would've preferred Hill, even knowing it would force K-Rod in, I just trust him more at the plate, 2-12 is a small sample size and Brentz has been struggling a bit since his hot start.

 

That's true, and KRod would not have come in when it was Shaw's turn to bat. Hill for Shaw would have been the move.

[Nick]

Our starting left fielder is hitting .250 or so.....great production out of corner OF spot. But he is our good luck charm.

[moonslav59]

Bryce is a known commodity right now. Benintendi is not. He is just as likely to bomb as Brentz is today.

 

Agreed. Bryce is known to be nothing more than a AAAA player.

 

Beni has much more upside.

 

Again, I'm not saying he should be called up.

[moonslav59]

ESPN sort of addressed that last night. The Red Sox have a bunch of guys who virtually play every day. The bench players never really get much of a chance. One or 2 ABs a week is not going to keep anyone sharp.

 

Not true. Shaw was our back-up 3Bman, Vazquez and Leon were our back-up catchers and LF has been manned by back-ups more often than not.

 

They've all played plenty.

 

Our 4-5 SP'ers are all back-ups. Hell, our 3rd SP'er (Wright) was probably our 7th or 8th starter on the winter depth chart. We're also missing our top 4 RP'ers.

[moonslav59]

Let's look at our defense so far this year, position by position (400+ innings):

UZR/150

C- Vazquez (16th out of 27)

1B- HanRam -3.4 (20th out of 30)

2B- Pedroia +15.0 (1st out of 25)

SS- Bogey -3.0 (16th out of 30)

3B- Shaw +0.1 (15th out of 29)

LF- No player with 400+ innings (Holt ranks 20th out of 30 with 300+ inn at -5.9)

CF- JBJ -1.7 (18th out of 30)

RF- Betts +11.2 (7th out of 27)

 

I expected better defense this year. We are currently 11th in team UZR/150 at +1.8.

 

It's weird that UZR/150 has the Guardians as the best team defensively at +9.0, but they are ranked 16th in DRS at -3.

 

The Sox are ranked 15th in DRS at +2.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Let's look at road OPS to try and take away park influences:

 

.813 STL

.796 CUBS

.790 BOS

.768 FLA

.759 SEA

.758 WSH

.756 TBR

.750 AZ

.749 HOU

.748 TOR

 

I remember many feeling the Blue Jays had the best offense by far.

 

The Sox place 20th in runs scored on the road, but I'm not sure how many games they have played away vs others ahead of them. We are 3 runs from 17th and 18 runs from 13th away.

 

Away Pitching:

 

22nd in ERA at 4.56

13th in WHIP at 1.36

18th xFIP at 4.42

 

However, if you look at SP'ing, the Sox have 3 of the top 19 SP'ers by WAR (120+ IP):

13) Price 2.9

16) Wright 2.6 (before tonight)

19) Porcello 2.3

 

If you go to 100 IP, there are 90 pitchers.

14) Price

19) Wright

26) Pomeranz

27) Porcello

 

That's pretty impressive.

If the pen gets healthy and pitches well, our staff looks okay (on paper) for the post season.

 

[Bellhorn04]

We've now lost 8 games in which we scored 7 or more runs.

[SoxnCycles]

We've now lost 8 games in which we scored 7 or more runs.

 

Yup, last night's game pretty much sucked.

 

I shudder to think what the team ERA is right now.

[Bellhorn04]

Yup, last night's game pretty much sucked.

 

I shudder to think what the team ERA is right now.

 

Team ERA is 4.43, 4th worst in the league.

 

But team runs allowed per game is 4.84, 2nd worst in the league. We seem to have given up the most unearned runs as well.

 

Bottom line, our run prevention is a disaster.

[Nick]

Team ERA is 4.43, 4th worst in the league.

 

But team runs allowed per game is 4.84, 2nd worst in the league. We seem to have given up the most unearned runs as well.

 

Bottom line, our run prevention is a disaster.

 

And that's troubling considering we have some good defensive players....

[SoxnCycles]

And that's troubling considering we have some good defensive players....

 

Yup, it seems that the errors come at the worst possible time.

[mvp 78]

Let's look at our defense so far this year, position by position (400+ innings):

UZR/150

C- Vazquez (16th out of 27)

1B- HanRam -3.4 (20th out of 30)

2B- Pedroia +15.0 (1st out of 25)

SS- Bogey -3.0 (16th out of 30)

3B- Shaw +0.1 (15th out of 29)

LF- No player with 400+ innings (Holt ranks 20th out of 30 with 300+ inn at -5.9)

CF- JBJ -1.7 (18th out of 30)

RF- Betts +11.2 (7th out of 27)

 

I expected better defense this year. We are currently 11th in team UZR/150 at +1.8.

 

It's weird that UZR/150 has the Guardians as the best team defensively at +9.0, but they are ranked 16th in DRS at -3.

 

The Sox are ranked 15th in DRS at +2.

 

 

 

Most fielding stats are garbage. UZR is especially putrid.

[d-money]

The pitching should be better. Some of these guys just haven't done the job. I am disgusted. The bullpen has been a mess. This team better get it together and quickly.

[illinoisredsox]

Team ERA is 4.43, 4th worst in the league.

 

But team runs allowed per game is 4.84, 2nd worst in the league. We seem to have given up the most unearned runs as well.

 

Bottom line, our run prevention is a disaster.

 

There are 4 main culprits. Funny thing is, 2 of them have had good years to date, 1 has been brutal and 1 has been okay.

 

Wright has allowed 16 (passed balls are probably the main reason), yet the Sox are 12-8 in games he has started (he's personally 12-5)

 

Porcello has allowed 6; the Sox are 15-6 in his starts (he's 13-2 personally).

 

Hembree has allowed 6 unearned runs. While he's 4-0, he has either been lights out or bad.

 

Then there's everyone's favorite whipping boy, Mr. Buchholz, who has also given up 6 unearned runs. No real surprise given his mental fragility and inabaility to handle a little adversity.

 

The rest of the staff is in the 1s and 2s, so no concern there.

[S5Dewey]

Most fielding stats are garbage. UZR is especially putrid.

 

That's something you and I will always agree on every day, and twice on Sunday.

 

Defense statistics are Voodoo statistics. When two sites can calculate the same statistic (DWAR) and get two different results ....

[greenwell]

There are 4 main culprits. Funny thing is, 2 of them have had good years to date, 1 has been brutal and 1 has been okay.

 

Wright has allowed 16 (passed balls are probably the main reason), yet the Sox are 12-8 in games he has started (he's personally 12-5)

 

Porcello has allowed 6; the Sox are 15-6 in his starts (he's 13-2 personally).

 

Hembree has allowed 6 unearned runs. While he's 4-0, he has either been lights out or bad.

 

Then there's everyone's favorite whipping boy, Mr. Buchholz, who has also given up 6 unearned runs. No real surprise given his mental fragility and inabaility to handle a little adversity.

 

The rest of the staff is in the 1s and 2s, so no concern there.

 

It's essentially the stephen wright factor. Buccholz is high only because he's given up so many runs. For both Hembree and Porcello, 3 of those unearned runs came in one game, it's just statistical variation.

[mvp 78]

That's something you and I will always agree on every day, and twice on Sunday.

 

Defense statistics are Voodoo statistics. When two sites can calculate the same statistic (DWAR) and get two different results ....

 

Now, that being said, there is still a potentially large gap between what you might see on the field if you were to watch every play of every game and what UZR “says” happened on the field. And that is one of several reasons why one year or even 10 years of UZR (or any other sample metric) does not give us a perfect estimate of a player’s true talent or even an accurate picture of what actually happened on the field. The reason for that is that the data is imperfect. For example, UZR might put a certain batted ball in a certain bucket and determine that that batted ball was extremely difficult for the CF’er to catch, based on the recorded (by the BIS “stringers”) qualities of the ball and other data. We don’t, of course, know for sure whether it was indeed a difficult to field batted ball. We don’t know exactly where each fielder was stationed, we certainly don’t know the exact location of the batted ball to the nearest square inch on the field, and we definitely don’t know how long the ball was in the air or on the ground.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

[moonslav59]

Relying on sporadic personal observation is more "putrid".

 

Just look at who have won GG awards, and you can see why defensive metrics were created.

 

All stats and metrics are flawed as are personal observations.

[mvp 78]

Relying on sporadic personal observation is more "putrid".

 

Just look at who have won GG awards, and you can see why defensive metrics were created.

 

All stats and metrics are flawed as are personal observations.

 

Jeter won the awards due to name recognition, NOT due to personal observation. Those are two completely different things.

[Bellhorn04]

Jeter won the awards due to name recognition, NOT due to personal observation. Those are two completely different things.

 

moon did say 'sporadic' personal observation - which could mean one or two games in a season.

[moonslav59]

Team ERA is 4.43, 4th worst in the league.

 

But team runs allowed per game is 4.84, 2nd worst in the league. We seem to have given up the most unearned runs as well.

 

Bottom line, our run prevention is a disaster.

 

I'm not trying to minimize the fact that our staff has stunk this year, but there is a glimmer or two of hope.

 

1) Our top 4 RP'ers are or were recently on the shelf with injury. Only one is out all year. When the three return, our run prevention ability should improve immensely.

 

2) If we make the playoffs, we will only need 3-4 SP'ers to keep advancing. Much of our poor staff numbers are distorted by our 5th starter numbers and pre-Pomeranz 4th starter numbers. Here's a look at how our 4 starters rank in the top 91 MLB qualified starters:

 

WAR

13) Price 2.9

20) Wright 2.6

26) Pomeranz 2.4

28) Porcello 2.3

 

All 4 SP'ers are in the top third.

The Nats have 3.

The Cubs and others have 2.

 

ERA-

17) Wright 70

19) Pomeranz 71

28) Porcello 80

57) Price 102

 

We have 3 in the top third with Price as the unexpected outsider.

 

I'd also like to add that many here are skeptical of metrics and non-traditional stats, but freely float stats like ERA without taking park factors, divisional foe factors (strength of schedule) and playing in a DH league. If you look at ERA-, we place 19th in SP'ers at 106. Despite all the pen injuries, we still have the 12th best RP'er ERA- at 87.

 

Overall, we rank 16th in pitching WAR and ERA- at 100 (just 5 points away from ranking 11th). This revealing stat makes us look average not near the bottom. We rank 15th in WHIP at 1.34 (just 0,05 away from 10th place). We might look re-markedly close to a top third pitching staff with a little uptick with the return of our top RP'ers, the addition of Pomeranz and the possibility of Price getting his s*** together.

 

I'm not saying I'm optimistic. I still think we need a top of rotation pitcher, but I don't view our staff as bottom 5.