A Realistic View at 2016

[Emp9]

I think what DD said before the Pom trade still holds true. There was nobody available as talented as ERod. I'm more interested in ERod's starts than Pomeranz's to be honest.

[Hugh2]

The better the player, the better the return demanded. Also, and this is remarkably important here, is that quantity will never make up for quality in trades. That last point rings more and more true the better the player you are trading for.

 

With that in mind, I think we have to acknowledge that a trade for Sale starts with someone like Bogaerts or Betts. Although if they believe in a guy like E-Rod, you might be able to center a deal around him if it is also headlined by Moncada.

 

If Sale was for sale (pun totally intended) it probably looks something like EROD/Moncada/Kopech/Devers.

[SoxnCycles]

I think what DD said before the Pom trade still holds true. There was nobody available as talented as ERod. I'm more interested in ERod's starts than Pomeranz's to be honest.

 

Yup. There's more upside to E-Rod.

[southpaw777]

Yeah you probably right.

 

Rosenthal said the WS were offered a "Kings Ransom" for sale within the last 48 hrs and they got a very firm NO. So im guessing hes not going anywhere

[Emp9]

The better the player, the better the return demanded. Also, and this is remarkably important here, is that quantity will never make up for quality in trades. That last point rings more and more true the better the player you are trading for.

 

With that in mind, I think we have to acknowledge that a trade for Sale starts with someone like Bogaerts or Betts. Although if they believe in a guy like E-Rod, you might be able to center a deal around him if it is also headlined by Moncada.

 

If Sale was for sale (pun totally intended) it probably looks something like EROD/Moncada/Kopech/Devers.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't do that trade. If you replaced Moncada w/ Swihart ... I'd consider it. I'd have a long think. If we had a guy like Sale, I wouldn't care so much on who our 5th starter would be. With our offense, we'd be favored every 4 out of 5 games. Our #5 cld be you, or me... They cld bring Moon out of retirement to throw his softball-knuckleball for all I care. Lol

[a700hitter]

Rosenthal is right about 10% of the time.

[Hugh2]

Yeah, I wouldn't do that trade. If you replaced Moncada w/ Swihart ... I'd consider it. I'd have a long think. If we had a guy like Sale, I wouldn't care so much on who our 5th starter would be. With our offense, we'd be favored every 4 out of 5 games. Our #5 cld be you, or me... They cld bring Moon out of retirement to throw his softball-knuckleball for all I care. Lol

 

If anything that trade is too light. It took 2 top 100 prospects, one arguably a top 25 to get a reliever. The premium for a TOTRS, who is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball is going to be significant.

 

Remember, the White Sox have the right to walk away from a deal here. They are the sellers, and everyone in the league would want Sale if he was available....they hold the chips, not us.

[a700hitter]

Sale is one of the best pitchers in the game on a very cheap contract. There is absolutely no reason to move him. He is the kind of pitcher and contract that you build around.

[mvp 78]

I don't see the ChiSox moving Sale without being overwhelmed by a package involving lots of young great arms. We don't have any to deal at the moment. Kopech throws hard, but his consistency may push him out of the rotation. ERod is coming off an injury and hasn't looked great. Aside from that, there's no other arms that are enticing to another team.

[Emp9]

If anything that trade is too light. It took 2 top 100 prospects, one arguably a top 25 to get a reliever. The premium for a TOTRS, who is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball is going to be significant.

 

Remember, the White Sox have the right to walk away from a deal here. They are the sellers, and everyone in the league would want Sale if he was available....they hold the chips, not us.

 

Oh, I agree w/ you. I just wouldn't do it that's all.

[d-money]

I think what DD said before the Pom trade still holds true. There was nobody available as talented as ERod. I'm more interested in ERod's starts than Pomeranz's to be honest.

 

Pomeranz's no slouch. He has always had talent. He didn't put it together. I don't think rodriguez's any more talented then pomeranz.

[moonslav59]

If anything that trade is too light. It took 2 top 100 prospects, one arguably a top 25 to get a reliever. The premium for a TOTRS, who is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball is going to be significant.

 

Remember, the White Sox have the right to walk away from a deal here. They are the sellers, and everyone in the league would want Sale if he was available....they hold the chips, not us.

 

What did it take to get Hamels? Yes, Hamels was set to get paid much more than Sale or Quintana, but sometimes the offer does not look like a gross overpay.

[Bellhorn04]

Rosenthal is right about 10% of the time.

 

We'll never know really, because he usually deals in un-confirmable rumors, like the 'Buchholz or Miley' one.

[Dojji]

Sale is one of the best pitchers in the game on a very cheap contract. There is absolutely no reason to move him. He is the kind of pitcher and contract that you build around.

 

Right, exactly. EXACTLY.

 

I'm getting a bit weary of fans here with pie in the sky expectations that we're going to somehow con teams out of franchise centerpieces. It's. Not. Happening.

 

The only times that kind of trade has EVER happened is when those guys are about to get expensive and are on skin. And there is no situation like that that exists in the league right now because at the moment more teams are on good financial ground as a percentage of the league than ever before in the league's history and everyone can afford to re-sign at least a few key studs to team friendly deals. It is NOT. HAPPENING.

 

Now I know that we as fans lived the exception taht proves the rule. We all want to recreate the Pedro trade, because that was sure fun. But so many extenuating factors forced to Pedro trade to happen, including, I'm fully convinced, a leaguewide consipracy against the city of Montreal, and there is no parallel situation today. It isn't going to happen.

 

I get the idea of building from the top, I understand, I do, but everyone else wants to do it too if they could. If there's even a whiff that these bigtime talents are coming available, everyone calls to find out the price, and the less cautious GM's start outbidding each other or potentially even themsevles. An ace, a real one, is a prize worth going crazy for, that's why you guys are doing it, but in that environment the price becomes embarrassing for everyone really quickly, even if someone is desperate and stupid enough to mortgage their future to do it. And woe betide the GM who trades one of these guys and gets nothing useful back. See also, again, the Pedro trade.

Edited July 22, 2016 by Dojji

[Hugh2]

What did it take to get Hamels? Yes, Hamels was set to get paid much more than Sale or Quintana, but sometimes the offer does not look like a gross overpay.

 

Completely incomparable. Sale is about 1/2 the financial cost as Hamels, a better pitcher, and 4 years younger on the right side of his prime. Apples to Oranges.

[Dojji]

Yeah, I wouldn't do that trade. If you replaced Moncada w/ Swihart ... I'd consider it.

 

That's OK, the White Sox don't touch it with a 10 foot pole and if you push, they ask for Bogaerts and Bradley (yes both of them) on top.

Edited July 22, 2016 by Dojji

[Dojji]

What did it take to get Hamels?

 

It took a Phillies team that lost nearly 100 games and didn't have the roster to contend within the next 5 years. That's what it took to "get" Hamels, meaning what it took for the Phillies FO to even start fielding phone calls about the guy. The cost in talent is secondary.

[Slasher9]

That's OK, the White Sox don't touch it with a 10 foot pole and if you push, they ask for Bogaerts and Bradley (yes both of them) on top.

 

so don't "push"? what does that even mean?

[moonslav59]

Right, exactly. EXACTLY.

 

I'm getting a bit weary of fans here with pie in the sky expectations that we're going to somehow con teams out of franchise centerpieces. It's. Not. Happening.

 

The only times that kind of trade has EVER happened is when those guys are about to get expensive and are on skin. And there is no situation like that that exists in the league right now because at the moment more teams are on good financial ground as a percentage of the league than ever before in the league's history and everyone can afford to re-sign at least a few key studs to team friendly deals. It is NOT. HAPPENING.

 

Now I know that we as fans lived the exception taht proves the rule. We all want to recreate the Pedro trade, because that was sure fun. But so many extenuating factors forced to Pedro trade to happen, including, I'm fully convinced, a leaguewide consipracy against the city of Montreal, and there is no parallel situation today. It isn't going to happen.

 

I get the idea of building from the top, I understand, I do, but everyone else wants to do it too if they could. If there's even a whiff that these bigtime talents are coming available, everyone calls to find out the price, and the less cautious GM's start outbidding each other or potentially even themsevles. An ace, a real one, is a prize worth going crazy for, that's why you guys are doing it, but in that environment the price becomes embarrassing for everyone really quickly, even if someone is desperate and stupid enough to mortgage their future to do it. And woe betide the GM who trades one of these guys and gets nothing useful back. See also, again, the Pedro trade.

 

You make some excellent points. I think the doubts on Pedro's physique and projected durability played a role in that trade.

 

On the Hamels comp: I realize the situation was vastly different in several ways. The Phillies were clearly in rebuild mode. Hamels was older and more expensive, but my suggested offer for Quinatana, IMO, was much much better than the Hamels package from the Rangers:

Jorge Alfaro- ranked 31 and 45 at the time of the deal

Jerad Eickhoff- not sure where he was ranked, but I think he was in the top 100

Matt Harrison - a declining ML talkent

Jake Thompson- 43rd and 47th

Nick Williams- ranked 71st

Alec Asher- not sure if he was ranked

 

Benintendi, Swihart, Espi and Devers are all ranked much higher than their counterparts in the Hamels trade. Holt > Harrison too.

 

It's probably still not enough, but I feel my suggested offer is significantly better than the Ranger's package.

[moonslav59]

I doubt the CWS trade Sale or Quintana. This reminds me of last winter, when the Guardians reportedly offered up Carrasco and Salazar, but then said no to every offer or pulled them off the table.

[Dojji]

You make some excellent points. I think the doubts on Pedro's physique and projected durability played a role in that trade.

 

On the Hamels comp: I realize the situation was vastly different in several ways. The Phillies were clearly in rebuild mode. Hamels was older and more expensive, but my suggested offer for Quinatana, IMO, was much much better than the Hamels package from the Rangers:

Jorge Alfaro- ranked 31 and 45 at the time of the deal

Jerad Eickhoff- not sure where he was ranked, but I think he was in the top 100

Matt Harrison - a declining ML talkent

Jake Thompson- 43rd and 47th

Nick Williams- ranked 71st

Alec Asher- not sure if he was ranked

 

Benintendi, Swihart, Espi and Devers are all ranked much higher than their counterparts in the Hamels trade. Holt > Harrison too.

 

It's probably still not enough, but I feel my suggested offer is significantly better than the Ranger's package.

you're close to getting it, but still a little off on a couple key points. The big one is that no one trades an ace like that at all, for any price, unless they have a reason to do it. Either they think they have no chance at all to build a winner during the lifetime of the contract *AND* they don't think they can re-sign them to a mutually reasonable deal, or they don't deal their ace. Right now NEITHER of these things is strictly true for CWS.

 

Let me put it this way -- what would have been your reasonable price to trade Jon Lester in 2009 when it looked like we were still right on the doorstep of another ring?

[Dojji]

so don't "push"? what does that even mean?

 

Sorry, that was shop talk. You probably don't know that I'm a telemarketer. "push" is to persist and use additional rebuttals, it's something we often do when the fish aren't biting. The response usually isnt' good, no the first time is usually no the second, third, and fourth, but management will never get that through their heads, so we "push" when the numbers aren't good, even if ti might be better to simply go on to the next call.

[a700hitter]

Sorry, that was shop talk. You probably don't know that I'm a telemarketer. "push" is to persist and use additional rebuttals, it's something we often do when the fish aren't biting. The response usually isnt' good, no the first time is usually no the second, third, and fourth, but management will never get that through their heads, so we "push" when the numbers aren't good, even if ti might be better to simply go on to the next call.

Tough way to make a living.

[moonslav59]

you're close to getting it, but still a little off on a couple key points. The big one is that no one trades an ace like that at all, for any price, unless they have a reason to do it. Either they think they have no chance at all to build a winner during the lifetime of the contract *AND* they don't think they can re-sign them to a mutually reasonable deal, or they don't deal their ace. Right now NEITHER of these things is strictly true for CWS.

 

Let me put it this way -- what would have been your reasonable price to trade Jon Lester in 2009 when it looked like we were still right on the doorstep of another ring?

 

I never viewed the Sox as being in total rebuild mode, but if we were, I'd consider my package. I might say no, because I value top SP'ers more than almost anyone I know. Maybe I assume some GMs love them much less than I do. I get that.

 

I don't get the CWS putting low cost quality SP'ers on the block. Since both are under team control for 3 and 4 years, I assume it is a total rebuild move not a sideways trade view (like Cespedes for Porcello).

 

I can't see any sense in looking for equal ML talent when you have Sale and Quintana. I'd keep both, unless I don't see the chances of winning in 3-4 years as likely. If this is the case, then looking for far-away prospects makes more sense than even ML ready prospects that may be FAs in 4-5 years. That's why I suggested something like Beni, Espi, Swi & Devers when I asked if posters would rather have Espi for Pom or Quintana for all 4 + midlevels.

 

I'm fine with people thinking my offer was not enough. I said it probably wasn't myself, but I think your 1/1000th comment was out of line or pure hyperbole. If the CWS are looking to win 4-5 years from now, why ask for Boegy or Betts who will hit the market around then?

 

I can see them wanting Moncada, Beni, Epsi & Swihart and/or Devers, but I'd say no to that offer.

 

[Dojji]

What you're overlooking is that even if they don't think they're contenders in the lifetime of those 2 contracts, and I don't see why they'd think that since they're barely a tick below .500, easily in the range of a couple strong roster moves putting them into the playoffs, but even if not, they should be able to re-sign Quintana and Sale. or at least the odds of doing so are high enough that no team is going to throw away the ace in hand without at least trying.

 

Talk to me in 2018 and we'll see what the price is on Sale or Quintana. Sale in particular has been disgruntled with the white Sox, they might deal him near the end of his current contract. In the meantime the White Sox have plenty of reason to think they can pick up a couple good bats and put a team in the postseason if they keep their guys. I don't see them entertaining any deal for those two at any price at all. When the price is infinite, 1/1000 was probably giving you too much credit

 

It's fun to dream though. I prefer to dream practical however. And dreaming on a Sale trade certainly isn't an excuse to fail to pursue real meaningful upgrades to a potential championship team in the meantime.

[User Name]

Sale has a very pronounced inverted L/W. I would be weary.

[Spudboy]

Gray is still the guy I would get.

 

I doubt that DD is going to get another starter.

[moonslav59]

What you're overlooking is that even if they don't think they're contenders in the lifetime of those 2 contracts, and I don't see why they'd think that since they're barely a tick below .500, easily in the range of a couple strong roster moves putting them into the playoffs, but even if not, they should be able to re-sign Quintana and Sale. or at least the odds of doing so are high enough that no team is going to throw away the ace in hand without at least trying.

 

I just don't see why any team that thinks they can win in the nest 3-4 years would trade an ace pitcher signed for 3-4 years at such a low cost. The only way it makes sense is that they are totally rebuilding, or Sale is a clubhouse problem.

[mvp 78]

Gray is still the guy I would get.

 

I doubt that DD is going to get another starter.

No. He blows this year.

[Emp9]

Sale is one of the best pitchers in the game on a very cheap contract. There is absolutely no reason to move him. He is the kind of pitcher and contract that you build around.

 

Well, if they're seriously looking to rebuild they would. The rest you mention are true and play a huge part on the asking price. It comes down to where they see their team the next 3 1/2 years.