A Realistic View at 2016

[cp176]

Wow. From Texas to Maine. That is cool. The best Barbecue to the best seafood.

 

Ocean breezes and baseball.

 

Good stuff.

 

 

screw the ocean and Portland too Spud. Get about one hour away from Portland, Mass, (north) and you get into the heart of Maine.

 

Seadogs just aren't very good. Moncada, Dubon, and Benintendi will help though. over watching Dubon even though he looks to be about 15. He is happy and has a very good glove. curious to see what they do with Moncada. Sharing time with someone at second base shouldn't be in his future.

[cp176]

screw the ocean and Portland too Spud. Get about one hour away from Portland, Mass, (north) and you get into the heart of Maine.

 

Seadogs just aren't very good. Moncada, Dubon, and Benintendi will help though. over watching Dubon even though he looks to be about 15. He is happy and has a very good glove. curious to see what they do with Moncada. Sharing time with someone at second base shouldn't be in his future.

 

 

Meant to say enjoyed watching Dubon. Also - comparing Swihart physically with Benintendi is a joke. Swihart looks like a power lifter by comparison.

[mvp 78]

The heart of Maine = Northern Hillbillies. That's why theyhave that s***** governor right now.

[cp176]

The heart of Maine = Northern Hillbillies. That's why theyhave that s***** governor right now.

 

Ain't that just the way we like it!

Come up sometime for a little visit. You are always welcome up here in vacationland.

[Spudboy]

I am somewhat familiar with coastal Maine.

 

I lived in Kenebunk one summer.

 

I worked in York on and off for two years. I worked in Sanford for a few weeks.

 

One of my best friends was from Camden so I went there with him a few times.

 

My Sister owned a home in Dameriscota ( sp ) and now owns a home in New Castle. It's pretty up there.

[cp176]

I am somewhat familiar with coastal Maine.

 

I worked in York on and off for two years. I worked in Sanford for a few weeks.

 

One of my best friends was from Camden so I went there with him a few times.

 

My Sister owned a home in Dameriscota ( sp ) and now owns a home in New Castle. It's pretty up there.

 

It really is beautiful. The coastal communities are a little too crowded for me but they are beautiful. I'm from rural western Maine. I've only left for short periods of time. When I do change residencies, it will absolutely just be for tax purposes. Hadlock field is also a great place to watch baseball. if we were just a little closer, we would have season's tickets.

[moonslav59]

I'd still be living in Maine, if it wasn't for the 5 month winters.

[Spudboy]

I'd still be living in Maine, if it wasn't for the 5 month winters.

 

I hear that!

 

But you have scorching heat and rattle snakes!

[moonslav59]

I hear that!

 

But you have scorching heat and rattle snakes!

 

True, except I've yet to see a rattlesnake in 9 years living in Sugar Land (a suburb of Houston).

 

My wife's a teacher, and I volunteer teaching, so we both have summers off. We go to Maine every summer for between 3-6 weeks, so I found a way to get the best of both worlds.

 

The heat here is stifling, but only for 3 to maybe 4 months, so it's still beats 5 month winters..

[moonslav59]

Now that Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax, let's re-look at next year's luxury budget numbers:

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players):

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

 

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.)

 

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $17.25M

 

Arbs (9 players):

Bogaerts:$650K > ~$3.5M (1st of 3)

Bradley: $546K > ~$2.7M (1 of 4)

Kelly: $2.6M>$2.5M (2 of 3 arbs)

Ross: $1.25M> $1.5M (2 of 3)

Holt: $606K > $1M (1 of 3)

Leon: $minor > $800K (1 of 3)

Layne: $564K> $700K (1 of 4)

Rutledge: $minor> $700K (1 of 3)

Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

TOTAL ARBS: ~$14M

 

TOTAL of 18 players: ~$155M ($138M without Buch and Hanigan)

 

The 22 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Cuevas & LaMarre

TOTAL: ~$12M

 

Grand Total: $167M or $150M (No Buch/Hanigan)

 

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

 

$178M or $161M

 

That leaves us with about $11M to $28M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M aand perhaps closer to $210M.

 

That would mean we'll have between $22M and $32M, or if we dump Buch and Hanigan between $39M and $49M to spend on added salary and be close to the limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

Edited June 27, 2016 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

ms, Castillo's contract absolutely counts towards luxury tax

[moonslav59]

ms, Castillo's contract absolutely counts towards luxury tax

 

I thought he wasn't on the 40 man roster anymore (like Craig).

[User Name]

If he's not on the 40-man roster, his contract does not count against the luxury tax.

[Spudboy]

Now that Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax, let's re-look at next year's luxury budget numbers:

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players):

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

 

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.)

 

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $17.25M

 

Arbs (9 players):

Bogaerts:$650K > ~$3.5M (1st of 3)

Bradley: $546K > ~$2.7M (1 of 4)

Kelly: $2.6M>$2.5M (2 of 3 arbs)

Ross: $1.25M> $1.5M (2 of 3)

Holt: $606K > $1M (1 of 3)

Leon: $minor > $800K (1 of 3)

Layne: $564K> $700K (1 of 4)

Rutledge: $minor> $700K (1 of 3)

Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

TOTAL ARBS: ~$14M

 

TOTAL of 18 players: ~$155M ($138M without Buch and Hanigan)

 

The 22 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Cuevas & LaMarre

TOTAL: ~$12M

 

Grand Total: $167M or $150M (No Buch/Hanigan)

 

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

 

$178M or $161M

 

That leaves us with about $11M to $28M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M aand perhaps closer to $210M.

 

That would mean we'll have between $22M and $32M, or if we dump Buch and Hanigan between $39M and $49M to spend on added salary and be close to the limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

 

Am I blind or did you not include Betts?

[Nick]

Moon

 

You can simply ignore Clay Buchholtz. His option is not vested. There is no f***ing way he'll be on Sox roster for 2017. At best, his skinny ass will be traded.

[moonslav59]

Am I blind or did you not include Betts?

 

I forgot to put him with the pre-arb players. I went back and added him. Thanks for the eagle eye.

[moonslav59]

If he's not on the 40-man roster, his contract does not count against the luxury tax.

 

Yes.

 

I thought he was off the 40-man roster, but soxprospects.com still has him listed on the 40 man.

 

Anybody know for sure what his roster status is right now?

[moonslav59]

Moon

 

You can simply ignore Clay Buchholtz. His option is not vested. There is no f***ing way he'll be on Sox roster for 2017. At best, his skinny ass will be traded.

 

Agreed. We could probably trade him now,i f we paid all but one dollar of his remaining contractfo r a bag of used balls.

[moonslav59]

Now that Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax, let's re-look at next year's luxury budget numbers:

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players):

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

 

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.)

 

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $17.25M

 

Arbs (9 players):

Bogaerts:$650K > ~$3.5M (1st of 3)

Bradley: $546K > ~$2.7M (1 of 4)

Kelly: $2.6M>$2.5M (2 of 3 arbs)

Ross: $1.25M> $1.5M (2 of 3)

Holt: $606K > $1M (1 of 3)

Leon: $minor > $800K (1 of 3)

Layne: $564K> $700K (1 of 4)

Rutledge: $minor> $700K (1 of 3)

Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

TOTAL ARBS: ~$14M

 

TOTAL of 18 players: ~$155M ($138M without Buch and Hanigan)

 

The 22 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Cuevas & LaMarre

TOTAL: ~$12M

 

Grand Total: $167M or $150M (No Buch/Hanigan)

 

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

 

$178M or $161M

 

That leaves us with about $11M to $28M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M aand perhaps closer to $210M.

 

That would mean we'll have between $22M and $32M, or if we dump Buch and Hanigan between $39M and $49M to spend on added salary and be close to the limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

 

MLB.com does not have Castillo listed on the 40 man roster. We have 39 listed, including the 5 players on the 15 day DL (Holt, Swhart, Young, Rutledge & Hanigan.

 

The 3 players on the 60 day DL do not count against the 40 man roster (Pablo, Smith & Workman).

[Nick]

MLB.com has 42 players listed and Castillo is not on the list. The whole point of placing him on waivers was to avoid paying $3m luxury tax penalty on his &10M annual value.

 

The question is can we do the same to Panda? Obviously there's no point in doing it if we're under the cap. There's no penalty.

 

I worked for a big company and new COO would flush out all the expenses and put it all on previous management. That's what DD is doing. Price is on him but not Panda and Hanley's contracts.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com has 42 players listed and Castillo is not on the list. The whole point of placing him on waivers was to avoid paying $3m luxury tax penalty on his &10M annual value.

 

The question is can we do the same to Panda? Obviously there's no point in doing it if we're under the cap. There's no penalty.

 

I worked for a big company and new COO would flush out all the expenses and put it all on previous management. That's what DD is doing. Price is on him but not Panda and Hanley's contracts.

 

We may try it with Panda next season, when we may need to avoid a heavy luxury tax.

 

The free agent market is not very good next year, especially for SP'ers, but maybe we can trade for a high-priced SP'er or prospects for a cheaper one and use the "cap space" on offense ad RP'ers.

[mvp 78]

Moon

 

You can simply ignore Clay Buchholtz. His option is not vested. There is no f***ing way he'll be on Sox roster for 2017. At best, his skinny ass will be traded.

They're picking up the option again. I guarantee it.

[illinoisredsox]

We may try it with Panda next season, when we may need to avoid a heavy luxury tax.

 

The free agent market is not very good next year, especially for SP'ers, but maybe we can trade for a high-priced SP'er or prospects for a cheaper one and use the "cap space" on offense ad RP'ers.

 

Won't work with Panda. He's got more than 5 years service time, which means he can refuse to go to the minors (and I have to think he would). So the choice would be outright release or keep him on the major league roster.

 

One question, if he is outright released and no one picks him up, does his salary count towards the luxury tax?

[User Name]

Short answer: No. A player needs to be on the 40-man roster in order for his salary to count towards the salary cap.

[illinoisredsox]

Short answer: No. A player needs to be on the 40-man roster in order for his salary to count towards the salary cap.

 

One reason I ask is because I'm pretty sure that if a player is released by team 1 and signed by team 2 (thus going on their 40 man roster), whatever portion of the contract is still being paid by team 1 counts towards team 1's luxury tax. Team 2 would almost certainly sign said player to the MLB minimum, putting ht e old team on the hook for most of the salary.

[User Name]

One reason I ask is because I'm pretty sure that if a player is released by team 1 and signed by team 2 (thus going on their 40 man roster), whatever portion of the contract is still being paid by team 1 counts towards team 1's luxury tax. Team 2 would almost certainly sign said player to the MLB minimum, putting ht e old team on the hook for most of the salary.

 

This is a good point. I will do further research.

[moonslav59]

Won't work with Panda. He's got more than 5 years service time, which means he can refuse to go to the minors (and I have to think he would). So the choice would be outright release or keep him on the major league roster.

 

One question, if he is outright released and no one picks him up, does his salary count towards the luxury tax?

 

Not sure, but I think it does.

 

If nobody claims him, and they won't at his money, then he can go any where for whatever he agrees to be paid. The Sox will have to pay the rest of his contractual salary, so I think they'd be on the hook. I think it all comes down to being on someone's 40 man roster or not.

 

If Pablo only gets minor league offers, I suppose he could stay with the Sox a la Craig.

 

BTW, didn't Craig have 5 years when we DFA'd him?

[illinoisredsox]

Not sure, but I think it does.

 

If nobody claims him, and they won't at his money, then he can go any where for whatever he agrees to be paid. The Sox will have to pay the rest of his contractual salary, so I think they'd be on the hook. I think it all comes down to being on someone's 40 man roster or not.

 

If Pablo only gets minor league offers, I suppose he could stay with the Sox a la Craig.

 

BTW, didn't Craig have 5 years when we DFA'd him?

 

Baseball Reference lists Craig's service time as "4.154" which means 4 years, 154 days (a full year is 180 days). So no, he is about 4 weeks shy of 5 years.

[Bellhorn04]

BTW, didn't Craig have 5 years when we DFA'd him?

 

Craig still has less than 5 years service time.

[Slasher9]

man. he fell off a cliff quick.