A Realistic View at 2016

[Kingface]

I have seen nothing but great plays from Shaw...hes going to make a couple errors, but i really dont know what your watching Moon. theres really nothing i can think of that most other 3b would get to that he hasnt. with that said, Im not sure hes the long term solution there.

Moncada hasnt played one inning at 3b so lets not pencil him in just yet. I agree that I would give him reps at another position, but lets wait til the kid can get a full pro year under his belt at one position and also get through A Ball first.

Benintendi may have the faster track because of his college time. I could see him in Boston in 2017 and moncada maybe in 2018.

Panda needs to go one way or another. at this point he has to play some to get any value, so until he goes back to andrews and we can shift him to the 60 day DL hes going to have to take up a valuable roster spot.

Ive never been one to complain about the Manager too much, but Farrell has got to go...this guy has made so many questionable in game moves and has mismanaged his roster so badly you would swear hes trying to lose. he was a great pitching Coach, but IMHO is a terrible game Manager. I bet (hope) after DD's "vote of confidence" Farrell is gone sometime soon..

 

As usual.....I agree with you 100%. Good to see you here my friend.

[Maxbialystock]

I think we may have our 1baseman. Who would have thought the most solid part of this team would be the corners manned by Shaw and Ramirez?

 

Defensively, Hanley is fine, but 1b should produce a good hitter. Last year and this year not so great at the plate.

[User Name]

It's April 25th.

[mvp 78]

It's April 25th.

 

Hanley should have X hr's by now! Obv.

[mvp 78]

Sure, complain all offseason that his defense will be putrid. When he plays defense really well, just get mad that he's not Barry Bonds.

[Dojji]

We don't need barry Bonds but Hanley's cooled off a bit after a fast start, it's not unfair to point that out. It's entirely possible that Hanley winds up on the bench by the deadline and Sam Travis is our starting firstie.

[mvp 78]

We don't need barry Bonds but Hanley's cooled off a bit after a fast start, it's not unfair to point that out. It's entirely possible that Hanley winds up on the bench by the deadline and Sam Travis is our starting firstie.

 

Sure, if he is injured again. Right now, Travis is playing worse at 1b than Hanley.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Hanley will bust out at the plate.

[a700hitter]

Hanley is just about ready to break out. He has hit in some hard luck for the last week.

[SoxnCycles]

It's April 25th.

 

Exactly.

 

Hanley was off to a hot start, but has cooled off some. I don't expect it to last.

[sk7326]

We don't need barry Bonds but Hanley's cooled off a bit after a fast start, it's not unfair to point that out. It's entirely possible that Hanley winds up on the bench by the deadline and Sam Travis is our starting firstie.

 

Not betting on it. Hanley has been comfortable defensively and he has not look overwhelmed at the plate. The spike in strikeouts is worth watching - evidence of lost bat speed. That said when he has made contact it has been solid. Would be nice to see the walk rate perk up a bit too.

 

But it's early - I am optimistic.

[mvp 78]

That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

Papi's replacement will be in house. I don't see them adding any positional players. They should add a #2 in the offseason and go from there. The only problem is that most FA's wind up being overpays. They probably need to trade some of their prospects and bring back a young starter. The failure to develop pitchers has really hurt them lately.

[Slasher9]

I also think that getting Moncada off second base makes sense. He is very apt to be moving quickly through the system. I think that quite possibly Sam Travis could be our first baseman on opening day next year. Ramirez to the dh and Shaw stays put at third. Sandoval is heading toward that big dumpster. Now, with all that being said, a package of Sam Travis and others might just help to bring a real pitcher to Boston to help us get over the fact that both Kelly and Buchholz are essentially useless if you have to count on them.

Ramirez has been playing Gold Glove defense at 1b. yup, i said it.

His salary dictates that we play him at 1b. Papi is the greatest DH of alltime and he never sniffed $22MM salary. Cannot waste that much salary on DH spot.

[a700hitter]

Ramirez has been playing Gold Glove defense at 1b. yup, i said it.

His salary dictates that we play him at 1b. Papi is the greatest DH of alltime and he never sniffed $22MM salary. Cannot waste that much salary on DH spot.

I think Hanley is just fine at 1B, but GG talk my be a bit of hyperbole.

[mvp 78]

Ramirez has been playing Gold Glove defense at 1b. yup, i said it.

His salary dictates that we play him at 1b. Papi is the greatest DH of alltime and he never sniffed $22MM salary. Cannot waste that much salary on DH spot.

 

DH will be swapped between Travis, Shaw and Ramirez (if they can dump Pablo).

[mvp 78]

I think Hanley is just fine at 1B, but GG talk my be a bit of hyperbole.

 

He'll be the first platinum glove winner in league history.

[Slasher9]

DH will be swapped between Travis, Shaw and Ramirez (if they can dump Pablo).

 

i could definitely see a rotation at the DH spot next year (but HanRam not getting the bulk of it).

sss as a DH in his career HanRam .318 / .951 in 116 PA's.....so he may have the chops/mindset to sit on the bench the whole game and only stroll onto the field 4 times a game to rake. but his salary dictates to me that as long as he is an "average" 1bman defensively he will get the bulk of the playing time there. and he has certainly been better than "average" for the first 3 weeks at the position.

[Slasher9]

He'll be the first platinum glove winner in league history.

 

I know i'm knew to this site but i am unfamiliar with that award.

http://m.redsox.mlb.com/bos/video/v623401783

Edited April 25, 2016 by Slasher9

[mvp 78]

I know i'm knew to this site but i am unfamiliar with that award.

http://m.redsox.mlb.com/bos/video/v623401783

 

It was a joke that not only will he win the gold glove award, but that it will be designated a platinum glove award since his defense will be that much better than regular ass gold.

[FredLynn]

Shaw has looked very good defensively, IMO. The metrics say he has been very good, although you really can't take anything from 3 weeks worth of data.

 

OTOH, there is reason to be less optimistic about his offense. His K rate and his BABIP both say beware of when he returns to earth.

 

I think teams have learned to pitch him up in the zone, which is where his hole is. He is not going to be a .900 OPS guy; I expect more like .780 or so. And at least his defensive metrics don't suck. In any event, he has been better than Sandoval would have been.

[Hugh2]

Shaw doesn't exactly have the quickest bat but he's got a good eye and is a smart kid so he makes up for it so I suspect he will still hold his own when he comes back down to earth at the plate.....and he is going to come back down.

[Dojji]

I'm past worrying about Shaw offensively at this point because the defense is so solid. He could regress quite a bit offensively without losing his value because the glove has been such a pleasant surprise.

 

I think we may just have third base locked down for a few years, which I didn't let myself hope before we got a chance to see Shaw play everyday. I thought he'd struggle with the glove but make up for it with some key hits, I never thought he'd explode onto the scene on both offense and defense Every now and again a guy like that just clicks at the big league level. Too early to say whether that describes Shaw, but early returns are exciting.

 

I don't think he's going to combine good to great defense with his current OPS, if he does, he'll be a Hall of Fame candidate, but if he drops down to the .720--.750 OPS range, and is still playing this level of defense, he's probably still worth keeping as the starting 3B going forward.

[moonslav59]

Who is the worst fielder in the starting line-up and is the guy behind him any better on defense and offense?

 

This is how we determine who will DH once Papi retires.

 

It won't be Betts or Pedey, unless they need a rest, and we need their bats in the line-up.

 

It won't be JBJ, because nobody is better in the field, and he doesn't hit like a DH, except for one 5 week stretch.

 

It won't be Castillo (see JBJ).

 

It won't be Bogey, because the guy that can field SS very well, Marrero, can't hit.

 

That leaves HanRam (1B to DH), Shaw (3B or 1B to DH), Sandoval (3B to DH maybe vs RHPs only) or Young (OF to DH vs LHPs).

 

I guess one could argue Swihart, but he's got a lot to prove with the bat, before I even consider him at DH.

 

Assuming we don't add anyone on offense, I'm looking at a Sandy/Young DH platoon with Shaw getting his share (assuming he keeps hitting)- like it or not. Maybe HanRam and others get a little breather here and there as spot DHs, but the bulk will go to Sandy-Young and some Shaw on the side.

[moonslav59]

Who is the worst fielder in the starting line-up and is the guy behind him any better on defense and any good on offense?

 

This is how we determine who will DH once Papi retires.

 

It won't be Betts or Pedey, unless they need a rest, and we need their bats in the line-up.

 

It won't be JBJ, because nobody is better in the field, and he doesn't hit like a DH, except for one 5 week stretch.

 

It won't be Castillo (see JBJ).

 

It won't be Bogey, because the guy that can field SS very well, Marrero, can't hit.

 

That leaves HanRam (1B to DH), Shaw (3B or 1B to DH), Sandoval (3B to DH maybe vs RHPs only) or Young (OF to DH vs LHPs).

 

I guess one could argue Swihart, but he's got a lot to prove with the bat, before I even consider him at DH.

 

Assuming we don't add anyone on offense, I'm looking at a Sandy/Young DH platoon with Shaw getting his share (assuming he keeps hitting)- like it or not. Maybe HanRam and others get a little breather here and there as spot DHs, but the bulk will go to Sandy-Young and some Shaw on the side.

[User Name]

That is assuming one (or two) of Benintendi, Moncada, or Travis don't blow the front door down, because that would complicate matters.

[moonslav59]

In a good way, yes. That's also one reason I am against spending large and long on a bat this deadline or next winter.

 

Moncada and/or Benintendi are going to have to knock an established vet off a pedestal anyways, so why add one more big bat to the "block the prospects" list?

 

We should spend every available dollar on pitching.

 

I'm not saying I'm a hundred percent content with our everyday players, but it is what it is.

[sk7326]

Everyday lineup is fine ... no automatic outs in the order (although jury is out on Vasquez to some degree). Defensively the team is middle of the pack - which is an improvement on last year, whether or not you see any untapped potential. (Jackie Bradley has a negative UZR to date for one)

 

What they need is another middle class to upper middle class starter. Possibly two.

[SinceYaz]

For years I started threads at the Globe's Red Sox Front Burner Forum titled "A Realistic Look at ...." I hope I can continue the tradition here. Here's an updated look at the last one I posted on that site:

 

Regardless of what many Sox fans might believe, the Red Sox have a restricted budget. The sky is NOT the limit. Henry has allowed DD to go over the luxury tax limit, but I seriously doubt that will last going forward (at least by a significant amount). To be realistic, I think we should hold all suggested trades, signings and moves to the standard of not going over the limit by more than about $10M. With that in mind, here is how the luxury tax budget numbers look as of now: under contract (luxury tax not 2016 salary):

 

$187.8M Total

 

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $16M Ortiz, $13.75M Pedroia, $13M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrell, $10.25M Castillo, $9M Uehara, $6.5M Young, $6.2M Craig, $3.6M Hannigan, $3.375M Tazawa, $2.6M Kelly, $1.25M Ross

(Note: Craig's contract does not count on the luxury tax budget, if he remains off the 40 man roster, so the luxury number is really $181.2M)

 

The 25 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Holt, JBJ, Workman (DL), Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Layne, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Rutledge, Cuevas

 

Add about $14M for these 25 players and the player payroll budget (luxury tax) equals about:

 

$195M

 

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

 

$206M

 

That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

 

Feel free to comment on my 25 and 40 man roster projections and anything else that has to do with the Red Sox.

 

Let's keep politics and personal attacks off this thread.

 

More to come. Thanks!

 

Sox4ever

 

 

 

Moon! Good to see you!

[mvp 78]

That is assuming one (or two) of Benintendi, Moncada, or Travis don't blow the front door down, because that would complicate matters.

 

Beninturdi will be fast tracked next year when Pedey gets injured and Holt is moved to 2b.

[Maxbialystock]

Ortiz has spoiled us because he is close to the best DH ever. The Sox traded to get him and maybe should try that again although I prefer not to. Moonslav has it about right.