2016 Starting Rotation

[sk7326]

Yep, that is what I am saying. If our opinion of him is not high enough for him to be anything but our backup it establishes a ceiling for him -- the guy's potential now has a limit that wasn't there before. That could only hurt his value.

 

Exactly how I remember it with Steve Young and the 49ers

[Slasher9]

I'm more interested in how you got to that conclusion. Is it what you saw? Is it the pitching performance, are you using stats?

 

I tend to think Swihart may be a sub optimal pitch caller and I don't know why I think that. I was wondering if someone had something behind that thought? Maybe he is a better pitch caller that Vasquez.

 

too sss to use stats IMO. it is purely based on what i have seen. just look at the confidence Vaz exudes when behind the dish. I can see it. certainly his pitchers can see it. his pitchers have to feel that and have to be more confident burying an offspeed pitch in the dirt knowing he WILL block it. yes, he does give up the occasional PB because he is framing (or presenting) the pitch. but the strikes (and backwards K's) he steals more than make up for the occasional PB. Swihart on the flipside has not looked comfortable to me behind the plate. he wasn't "born" to be a catcher but he certainly can develop into an above average receiver. this season in AAA will be very good for his growth as a catcher. i just hope the FO doesnt waste too much of his time in LF. his value is as a C (whether we keep him or trade him).

fwiw - i am not trying to teardown swihart. i truly believe he will be an above average catcher at the MLB level. he just needs a bit more time to develop defensively. Vaz on the otherhand was born to squat.

[Slasher9]

a quick look at BR:

vaz: 1.3 dwar in 62 games played / 52% CS rate! / Rdrs: 7

Swi: -0.4 dwar in 90 games played / 28% CS rate / Rdrs: -17

[a700hitter]

Exactly how I remember it with Steve Young and the 49ers

Steve Young was the successor plan for an aging QB. It is not the same situation as having two 22 year olds and relegating one to be a backup in your organization. By making that decision, you have just made a major judgment about his potential. That can't help his trade value. No one wants to pay a premium for someone elses excess baggage. His exposure last year and this year as a substandard defender has probably already impacted his value.

[Spudboy]

Yesterday I saw a tape of Dombrowski discussing Swihart being sent to Pawtucket.

 

He said that he believed that it was beneficial to have both players on the field. It sound like they really want Swihart to get significant time at another position ( LF? ).

 

Swihart has a good bat now and with more experience at MLB should be really productive. I'll take that.

[a700hitter]

Yesterday I saw a tape of Dombrowski discussing Swihart being sent to Pawtucket.

 

He said that he believed that it was beneficial to have both players on the field. It sound like they really want Swihart to get significant time at another position ( LF? ).

 

Swihart has a good bat now and with more experience at MLB should be really productive. I'll take that.

I don't think the organization has any shortage of position players with bigger upsides offensively. I don't see the value in converting him to another position, unless they are much higher on his offensive potential than I am.

[SoxHop]

It's not the same thing with prospects. A big part of their value is their potential. A Porsche is a Porsche. It doesn't have the potential to be anything else.

 

But Swihart and his potential are still his potential. Having Vasquez take the position has nothing to due with Swiharts potential or ability.

 

So did the move to the roster a couple years before he should have hurt his trade value because other teams didn't see a final product?

[a700hitter]

But Swihart and his potential are still his potential. Having Vasquez take the position has nothing to due with Swiharts potential or ability.

 

So did the move to the roster a couple years before he should have hurt his trade value because other teams didn't see a final product?

If the Red Sox commit to Vasquez as their catcher of the future despite his offensive limitations, they have made a very definite judgment regarding the limits on Swihart's potential at the position. Neither of us is going to convince the other, so let's move on. Swihart is one of our most valuable trade chips right now and he is a redundancy. He can be used to get pitching -- something we need. Prospect value can evaporate quickly. I just want them to maximize his value.

[a700hitter]

So did the move to the roster a couple years before he should have hurt his trade value because other teams didn't see a final product?

Teams did get to see his tools whether finished or not. He has a lot of work to do just to be an adequate major league catcher.

[sk7326]

Teams did get to see his tools whether finished or not. He has a lot of work to do just to be an adequate major league catcher.

 

He was solidly above replacement last season with 300+ PAs and basically no time at AAA. He already has passed adequate.

[a700hitter]

He was solidly above replacement last season with 300+ PAs and basically no time at AAA. He already has passed adequate.

I was referring to his defensive tools.

[sk7326]

I was referring to his defensive tools.

 

I think we get clouded because the comparison is with somebody who is a bit of a prodigy. This is not Ryan Lavarnway or late career Mike Piazza.

[a700hitter]

I think we get clouded because the comparison is with somebody who is a bit of a prodigy. This is not Ryan Lavarnway or late career Mike Piazza.

He is going to be a backup on our team, unless he converts to another position. And the question is whether he hits enough to convert him to another position. Also, do we have a need for him to convert to another position. He is still a highly valued trade chip as a catcher. That will have a limited shelf life. It is quite possible that this value will not be there in 2 years if he remains in our minor leagues.

[a700hitter]

Do people think that Swihart is going to make a big league career with us at another position? If so, at which position? If not, wouldn't it be best for him and the Red Sox to trade him to fill a need if Vasquez is the future at catcher?

[mvp 78]

Do people think that Swihart is going to make a big league career with us at another position? If so, at which position? If not, wouldn't it be best for him and the Red Sox to trade him to fill a need if Vasquez is the future at catcher?

 

He could wind up being a productive 3b or LF. It's all just guesswork. I agree that they need to maximize the value of each prospect, something they have struggled with in the past.

[Kingface]

Do people think that Swihart is going to make a big league career with us at another position? If so, at which position? If not, wouldn't it be best for him and the Red Sox to trade him to fill a need if Vasquez is the future at catcher?

 

I don't. Swihart's appeal was that he was ok/decent behind the plate but his hit tool was above average.....FOR A CATCHER. He was seen as a .275 15hr 60rbi guy.....which is very good for a catcher. Is that good for a 3B or 1B??? I really don't think so. Converted players to a new position like 1B/3B with that stat line are a dime a dozen. I actually think his stock will drop. If he can show that he can call a good game and get his pitchers full confidence and handle the entire staff....as well play average to slightly above average Defense.....his stock would be MUCH higher then as a 3B/1B.

 

Of course if he becomes that.....then I doubt we trade him in the first place! I still think we should though......Vaz is already one of the best defensive catchers in the league and he already has the pitching staffs confidence. Catcher is not an area of need.....pitching is so I pull the trigger.

[sk7326]

He is going to be a backup on our team, unless he converts to another position. And the question is whether he hits enough to convert him to another position. Also, do we have a need for him to convert to another position. He is still a highly valued trade chip as a catcher. That will have a limited shelf life. It is quite possible that this value will not be there in 2 years if he remains in our minor leagues.

 

One more season after this to be exact - since that's his last option year.

[Slasher9]

He was solidly above replacement last season with 300+ PAs and basically no time at AAA. He already has passed adequate.

 

he was 0.4 WAR for 2015. i'm not sure that is solidly above replacement, but it is above a minor leaguer.

[cp176]

I don't think the organization has any shortage of position players with bigger upsides offensively. I don't see the value in converting him to another position, unless they are much higher on his offensive potential than I am.

 

If Swihart is moved from behind the plate to either 3rd, left, or first, once he goes through the process of learning a new position once again, he will be standing in a long line of damned good prospects just licking their chops and waiting to show what they can do. His attraction is and always will be for better or worse that he projects as a decent hitting catcher. If he is going to make it in Boston, he is going to have to learn how to catch. We actually do have some other pretty good catching prospects who are showing good promise at the plate.

[sk7326]

he was 0.4 WAR for 2015. i'm not sure that is solidly above replacement, but it is above a minor leaguer.

 

0.4/1.5 depending on flavour ... the fangraphs post on him seemed reasonable http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blake-swihart-the-red-sox-mythical-third-prospect/

[Kimmi]

Porcello is a sinker baller. When you trust your catcher to block your sinker, it makes it more effective. I also think Vasquez is an elite defensive catcher in mind as well as skill. He seems to be a take charge catcher who doesn't f*** around. Someone with a wimpy demeanor like Porcello needs that

 

This was a good post, until the last sentence.

 

Vazquez instills confidence in his pitchers for many reasons. I posted before that when a pitcher knows his catcher will block pitches in the dirt, will steal some extra strikes on pitches thrown a couple of inches off the plate, can read the reaction of batter, and will deter baserunners from stealing, he can pitch with a lot more conviction.

[Kimmi]

Yet neither of them are on an MLB team............ But yes, you're right....Swihart has had a much better MLB career than Cecchini....and probably will. My point is that Swihart should have been traded when his stock was SKY HIGH. Now.....it's going down........... I'll say it once....I'll say it again.....everyone LOVES a good catching prospect. The Sox seem to produce great catching prospects.......TRADE THEM WHEN THE STOCK IS HIGH!!!!!!

 

I think Swihart stock is higher in the eyes of other GMs than he is in some of our fans' eyes. Swihart is still young. He did an admirable job when he was thrown into the fire last season before he was ready. He just needs more time to develop behind the plate.

[Kimmi]

I disagree, by almost every defensive metric Jeter was a below to well below fielder, and Posada ranked negative in runs saved for his career I believe.. Williams was maybe average.

 

Jeter was nowhere close to average as a defender.

[Spudboy]

I think Swihart stock is higher in the eyes of other GMs than he is in some of our fans' eyes. Swihart is still young. He did an admirable job when he was thrown into the fire last season before he was ready. He just needs more time to develop behind the plate.

 

I second this opinion.

 

Ask any GM if he would like Swihart on his team.

 

A couple of dropped balls does not change that.

 

He's young, very athletic, and can hit at any level.

 

That still spells top prospect.

[moonslav59]

I hate to part with Swihart, but I think it's bound to happen.

 

We better not trade him for a two month rental this July, but I'd be fine with making him part of a package to get a high quality SP'er with 2+ years of team control (preferably 3+ years). It's not really worth speculating on who might be on the block this July or December, but I could see Swihart being paired with Devers as h.eadliners to a blockbuster for a second ace or top quality #2

[SoxHop]

I hate to part with Swihart, but I think it's bound to happen.

 

We better not trade him for a two month rental this July, but I'd be fine with making him part of a package to get a high quality SP'er with 2+ years of team control (preferably 3+ years). It's not really worth speculating on who might be on the block this July or December, but I could see Swihart being paired with Devers as h.eadliners to a blockbuster for a second ace or top quality #2

 

If they can't get something good in return for Swihart they failed miserably. Maybe it would take adding something else as you said.

 

There is a great base of excellent young talent on this team that is locked up for the next few years. Add in Price.... maybe E-Rod. Adding another strong pitcher by next year this team could be a strong contended for the next few years.

[Palodios]

If they can't get high end talent for Swihart they should keep him. There aren't any other significant catchers in the system, and catcher is the hardest position to fill in free agency.

[Spudboy]

If they can't get high end talent for Swihart they should keep him. There aren't any other significant catchers in the system, and catcher is the hardest position to fill in free agency.

 

Amen Tony.

[moonslav59]

Yes, the catching position is the hardest position to fill, and that is precisely the reason why several GMs will gladly overpay for the hope that Swihart develops into a top 5-10 MLB catcher at a low cost for 4+ years. He will never be undersold due to the high value placed on catcher talent, even if speculative in nature.

 

Add Dever (since he is blocked by several vets and possibly even Moncada) plus the SP'er that will be replaced and one from Kopech, Owens or Johnson, and I think we get someone special.

[User Name]

Devers' bat will be blocked by no one. The Red Sox should trade no member of their big 3 (Moncada, Benintendi, Devers) unless absolutely overwhelmed by an offer. Kopech won't net the Sox a packet of gum with his behavioral issues.