2016 Starting Rotation

[mvp 78]

Since we are about a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting, it seems thre are probably no more major moves to make.

 

What is your projected rotation? How do you see things shaking out during 2016?

 

I think the rotation will end up being:

Price

Porcello

Buchholz

ERod

Kelly

 

I think Kelly struggles at the start of the year and is put into the BP with Elias being promoted. Buchholz gets injured near AS break and results in Kelly returning to the rotation. I believe Price will have a typical CY season and that Porcello will rebound and pitch more to his 2014 numbers. ERod will struggle at times, but will ultimately earn enough experience to make him a long term fixture in this rotation. Owens will remain in Pawtucket and struggle with command all year. He'll only be brought up if there are two huge injuries to the pitching staff.

[a700hitter]

Since we are about a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting, it seems thre are probably no more major moves to make.

 

What is your projected rotation? How do you see things shaking out during 2016?

 

I think the rotation will end up being:

Price

Porcello

Buchholz

ERod

Kelly

 

I think Kelly struggles at the start of the year and is put into the BP with Elias being promoted. Buchholz gets injured near AS break and results in Kelly returning to the rotation. I believe Price will have a typical CY season and that Porcello will rebound and pitch more to his 2014 numbers. ERod will struggle at times, but will ultimately earn enough experience to make him a long term fixture in this rotation. Owens will remain in Pawtucket and struggle with command all year. He'll only be brought up if there are two huge injuries to the pitching staff.

I think this is a very plausible scenario. I think it is just as plausible the ER breaks out this season. And I think Porcello's performance will continue to be very inconsistent and will end up having another mediocre year. He is a solid #4 and nothing more.

[jacksonianmarch]

David Price will come into Boston and struggle in the first 2 months. He will initially have trouble dealing with the expectations in Boston and the fact that LF is basically a HR waiting to happen. He settles down the final 4 months and posts an ERA just north of 3 on the year while throwing over 200IP like clockwork

 

Porcello will not rebound to 2014, but he will rebound to a 4.3ish ERA and give you 180IP.

 

Buchholz will come out next yr and be terrible from the start. He will be on the shelf for good by June and DFA'd by seasons end. He will finish the regular season on the operating room table

 

ERod is impossible to read. Lights out stuff, intermittently solid command. Tips his pitches at times. When on, he is unhittable. He probably proves his high 3 ERA isn't a fluke, but he will continue to show some inconsistency

 

Kelly ends up in the pen by the ASB

 

The only 3 guys left in the rotation after the ASB will be Price, ERod and Porcello

[mvp 78]

Buchholz would never be DFA'd. That's just silly. No matter howbad he is, they'd keep him around and give him the qualifying offer poison pill.

[jacksonianmarch]

Buchholz would never be DFA'd. That's just silly. No matter howbad he is, they'd keep him around and give him the qualifying offer poison pill.

 

Not if he undergoes TJS. If he needs a surgical procedure, then he's gonna get DFA'd

[mvp 78]

Does the TJS suregery now give the recipient an exoskeleton so that the pitcher could now throw like robocop? Not worth the copay to Buchholz otherwise. Just throwing money down the drain.

[Spudboy]

The rotation remains the most significant weakness on this team. There are other problems as well.

 

This team will do well to finish several games over .500.

[jacksonianmarch]

You filled the biggest hole at the top. The problem is, you dealt away the only other guy you could count on in Miley and have 2 guys in the rotation who likely won't make it to the ASB due to health or performance. There is another move afoot. I'm surprised they didn't go in on Chen, although keeping the pick would be beneficial. The only reason why the sox are contenders is because the division sucks. In any other division, this is a .500 team. In the suck of the AL east, they should do well enough to have meaningful Sept baseball

[cp176]

Price, Rodriguez, and Porcello will at least be around in the fall. Price will perform as he has in the past. E-Rod will remain a consistent starter. He will have his ups and downs but overall he will continue on an upward trend. Porcello may show signs of improvement but more likely will be what he has been for quite some time. He will be dependable though. Buchholz and Kelly will give us something and that represents an added bonus to me. If Brian Johnson is healthy, I expect him to be a pleasnt surprise. He knows how to pitch. I wouldn't be at all surprised if either or both - Owens and Wright- helped out significantly.

Although I would like to see them add one more good one to the rotation, I think that they have other equally important issues that we all are hoping that will resolve themselves. First base - third base - the hitting of both JBJ and Castillo - what happens with the catching scenario.

 

If everything comes together, could be an excitingly competitive season. If there is too much flopping around again, they will have to battle to get the 80-85 win level.

[a700hitter]

You filled the biggest hole at the top. The problem is, you dealt away the only other guy you could count on in Miley and have 2 guys in the rotation who likely won't make it to the ASB due to health or performance. There is another move afoot. I'm surprised they didn't go in on Chen, although keeping the pick would be beneficial. The only reason why the sox are contenders is because the division sucks. In any other division, this is a .500 team. In the suck of the AL east, they should do well enough to have meaningful Sept baseball

Chen is being signed by the Marlins for 5 years $80 million -- a better deal than the Porcello extension.

[Kimmi]

Fangraphs currently has the Sox projected to have the second best record in baseball with 92 wins, behind only the Cubs. They like our offense.

[Kimmi]

Since we are about a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting, it seems thre are probably no more major moves to make.

 

What is your projected rotation? How do you see things shaking out during 2016?

 

I think the rotation will end up being:

Price

Porcello

Buchholz

ERod

Kelly

 

I think Kelly struggles at the start of the year and is put into the BP with Elias being promoted. Buchholz gets injured near AS break and results in Kelly returning to the rotation. I believe Price will have a typical CY season and that Porcello will rebound and pitch more to his 2014 numbers. ERod will struggle at times, but will ultimately earn enough experience to make him a long term fixture in this rotation. Owens will remain in Pawtucket and struggle with command all year. He'll only be brought up if there are two huge injuries to the pitching staff.

 

Sounds about right.

[Bellhorn04]

Fangraphs currently has the Sox projected to have the second best record in baseball with 92 wins, behind only the Cubs. They like our offense.

 

Oh no, not again.

[cp176]

Fangraphs currently has the Sox projected to have the second best record in baseball with 92 wins, behind only the Cubs. They like our offense.

 

If everything works out the way we all want it to, that probably is a great estimate. Everything doesn't work out, who knows? Anybody's guess.

[Kimmi]

Oh no, not again.

 

That was mostly for Jacko and his "Sox may contend but only because of the sorry state of the division" argument.

[Kimmi]

If everything works out the way we all want it to, that probably is a great estimate. Everything doesn't work out, who knows? Anybody's guess.

 

That's always the case though, isn't it? You need things to go according to plan.

[jacksonianmarch]

That was mostly for Jacko and his "Sox may contend but only because of the sorry state of the division" argument.

 

Didn't they also say the sox were the favorite coming into last yr? Really reliable

[a700hitter]

Didn't they also say the sox were the favorite coming into last yr? Really reliable

It is so reliable that they don't keep a record of it.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox have the ace. They have the best pitcher in the division. They also have probably the worst 2-5 in the division as well. They have a solid bullpen. They have an offense with potential to boom or bust. They are contenders. If I know Dombrowski, he isn't finished. This team has holes. They might fill themselves or they might start an avalanche

[mvp 78]

It is so reliable that they don't keep a record of it.

 

https://reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/3gxd6m/fangraphs_projected_standings_on_april_1/

 

Had Sox winning 86 games.

[cp176]

That's always the case though, isn't it? You need things to go according to plan.

 

Not to the extent of being a contender or a bottom feeder like we have been. This year's team with a top of the rotation guy and a vastly improved bullpen may even allow us to hang in there throughout the course of the summer. We will see.

[a700hitter]

https://reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/3gxd6m/fangraphs_projected_standings_on_april_1/

 

Had Sox winning 86 games.

Is there an easy way to get the projections for prior years versus actual results -- on a year by year and cumulative basis?

[SoxHop]

Porcello, Kelly, E-Rod, Buch are all question marks with high potential.

 

I'm really excited to see E-Rod this year though.............. from what he showed last year he could be phenomenal, I think we have something there. He makes it look easy.

 

Porcello may be able to hang in to the six inning, and now that our bullpen is strong that will help his case.

 

Buch......... WHO THE HELL KNOWS!!!!!!!!!

 

Kelly............ Hoping for the best......... but think he we will all want him in the pen at some point.

 

Runs will help this staff...... Hanley is the biggest gamble and a major factor........ if Hanley somehow can hold down first and can hit to his average..... we should rake....... but maybe, as we might need some outfield help later on if Castillo or JBJ can't hit.....

[Station 13]

I feel Price, E-Rod and Porcello will carry the torch in the rotation, each tossing 200 inning. I the case of E-Rod, he is only 23 so he might have restriction. Price is paid as an ace, he will perform to a low 3ERA, adjusted for Fenway and division. Porcello was a 3.50ERA 8.8K/9 4.70K/BB starter last 2nd half last year, I'd be happy if he sends up around 4.00 with 200 inning. E-Rod is the wild card, he was brilliant outside a few disastrous games. He has the highest upside and can only improve.

 

I like Kelly. That 8 straight win was something either happen in a vacuum or just an overdose delusion. I predict he will make roughly 28 starts and toss 150 inning. 4.25ERA, he will get wins because the bullpen will help out our stater significantly with the additional 2-3 set up man to bridge the ball to Kimbrel.

 

Clay, just anything out of him is better than the 5th starter. Huge upside. A pest.

 

The game changer is our bullepn of Smith, Tazawa, Uhera and Kimbrel.

[mvp 78]

Is there an easy way to get the projections for prior years versus actual results -- on a year by year and cumulative basis?

 

Couldn't find one. My guess is that they are so wrong, that they hide that s*** as quick as possible so that people won't immediately ignore the following year's projections. I take zero stock in fangraphs and Bill James' projections as they never seem to remotely pan out.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fan graphs tried to project teams as close to the median that they can say they predict most teams accurate down to 8-10 games or so. I cannot conceivably think that the sox are done or that the team as is is a good bet for 92 wins. I think DD has something else up his sleeve. He's still got a lot of prospects and a major hole at #2

[Bellhorn04]

I can see a case for the Sox being projected for 90 wins or so. Their 2015 Pythagorean record was 81-81. I think Price and the bullpen upgrades add about 9 wins on paper.

[cp176]

Some of their success or lack there of this year will be determined by how quickly it takes them to react if things don't go according to plan. We all want to think that Hanley can get it done at first, Sandoval at third , and that Castillo will hit. If any of these guys don't get off to good starts, we have potentially very good and maybe even better options to replace them. If the decision is made to just hang on and hope that things will get better and they don't, .500 is still a good target. If the sun shines everyday, the skies are blue, and the birds keep singing, "on paper (once again)" we look fairly good.

[jung]

IMO, Farrell, with his undying faith in players and his general stubbornness will play Hanley and Panda till they drop almost regardless of what they are doing with a bit of a nod to Shaw but not much of one. DD does not look inclined to give Farrell an option with regard to Castillo who I expect will play 100+ games or more if he holds up.

[a700hitter]

Couldn't find one. My guess is that they are so wrong, that they hide that s*** as quick as possible so that people won't immediately ignore the following year's projections. I take zero stock in fangraphs and Bill James' projections as they never seem to remotely pan out.

 

Like weathermen, everyone listens to what they have to say, but no one keeps a record of how often they are right.