2016 Prospects Thread

[moonslav59]

If you knew anything about the Red Sox system you would know that the Portland team was empty of any talent. Up until recently they didn't have one single guy who projects as a MLB starter. You also do realize that there are multiple levels of minor league baseball? AAA, AA, high A, low A, short season A, rookie leagues and Dominican summer leagues? Taken the weakest team of 8 in the system and using that as an indictment of the system as a whole seems a bit biased to me.

 

Yes the top of the system is weak, but that's because in recent years they've graduated Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, JBJ, Barnes, Wright, Shaw, Vasquez. No team, not even those with some of this decades best farm systems have elite talent at all levels, that is virtually unheard of. I see a very nice wave of talent coming up behind our recent graduates....who by the way were called by many Sox fans grossly overrated and busts because they had an adjustment period at the MLB level.

 

Well said, and I might add that many of our recent prospect graduates were rushed to the bigs. Had Vazquez never gotten hurt, Swihart might still be counted as a prospect. Had Pablo not sucked or got hurt, Shaw might still be in the minors and not even viewed as "helping" the farm be viewed as strong.

 

I trust the experts, when they say our farm system is very strong, and when you add the list of recent graduates, it is clear that acquiring and developing prospects has been maybe the only bright spot on this team recently other than the 2013 championship. Our issues developing solid starting pitchers is a major concern, but overall, our farm has been and still is very strong. Remember, we also got Kimbrel by trading away some pretty darn good prospects. Margot is still ranked very highly. Guerra might have slipped a little, but Logan Allen and Acosta are still "alive" as prospects. A bit farther back, we traded Rizzo to get Gonzo.

 

I think the evidence clearly shows our farm is very strong. Our biggest problem has either been identifying the right big named free agents to sign or choosing to sign so many big named free agents in the first place.

 

Our record on keeping and letting go our best talent when they near free agency took a big hit with the handling of the Lester extension, but overall, I think we've judged correctly more often than not. We've had a few big misses, but I feel more often than not, we've chosen wisely. Now that DD is in charge all of this might change over time. Let's hope for the good.

[moonslav59]

That wasn't my intent, sorry. Just was curious why you came to that conclusion.

 

I don't think it's any secret that the reputation of our current prospect group is due more to the quality at the top rather than quantity...after the top 4-5 there is a steep drop off, and as I mentioned, most players on a minor league roster are ultimately organizational filler or guys who will never sniff the major leagues (and aren't really expected to) anyway. So going to a game and expecting the whole roster to be loaded with studs, and deciding the system must be overrated because it isn't, is really missing the point. Again, if you picked out Moncada and Benintendi and (maybe) Dubon, then you hit most of the prospect highlights from Portland. There wasn't much to watch there before those guys were promoted.

 

We just traded away excellent mid level prospects Margot, Guerra, Allen and Asuaje. We still have Kopech, Travis, Dubon, Chavis, Hernandez, Light, TBall & Ockimey. Other teams have these type of prospects as their 2-3-4-5 prospects. Are their 6-7-8-9-10 prospects really much better than the ones I listed above?

[Hugh2]

If you knew anything about the Red Sox system you would know that the Portland team was empty of any talent. Up until recently they didn't have one single guy who projects as a MLB starter. You also do realize that there are multiple levels of minor league baseball? AAA, AA, high A, low A, short season A, rookie leagues and Dominican summer leagues? Taken the weakest team of 8 in the system and using that as an indictment of the system as a whole seems a bit biased to me.

 

Yes the top of the system is weak, but that's because in recent years they've graduated Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, JBJ, Barnes, Wright, Shaw, Vasquez. No team, not even those with some of this decades best farm systems have elite talent at all levels, that is virtually unheard of. I see a very nice wave of talent coming up behind our recent graduates....who by the way were called by many Sox fans grossly overrated and busts because they had an adjustment period at the MLB level.

 

Just realized this sounded sort of stand offish, didn't mean for it to be.

[moonslav59]

Sox players by age- not prospect status:

18: Espinoza, R Rniel

19: Devers, L Ax Basabe, L Aj Basabe, Y Aybar

20: Kopech, Chavis, Ockimey, Longhi

21: Moncada, Benintendi, Dubon, Chatham, K Washington

22: Travis, T Ball, Lakins, Pimental, Beeks, J Cosart

23: Bogaerts, Betts, ERod, Hernandez, Owens, Shepherd

24: Swihart, Ysla, H ramos

25: Vazquez, Marrero, Light, Marrero, Johnnson, Cuevas, K Martin

26: JBJ, Shaw, C Smith, Barnes, N Ramirez, M Miller

27: Porcello, Hembree, Ross, Leon, Rutledge, Elias, Brentz, LaMarre

28: Kimbrel, Holt, Kelly, Castillo, O'Sullivan, A Wilkerson

29: Sandoval

30: Price, Tazawa

31: Wright, Buchholz, layne

32: Pedroia, H Ramirez, C Young

 

35: Hanigan

 

40: Ortiz

41: Uehara

 

We may lose the oldest three players on this list next winter, and if we replace them with under 30 players, we will greatly lower our average team age.

 

 

[cp176]

Just realized this sounded sort of stand offish, didn't mean for it to be.

 

 

thanks for that Hugh. For the record, my comments really were more related to what I saw from just a fitness and athletic standpoint as opposed to how well they play baseball. It might not always sound like it but I am a devoted fan. Maybe frustrated because people see something that I just don't see as clearly right now. I saw them one night - Moncada physically could fit anywhere right now.

[cp176]

That wasn't my intent, sorry. Just was curious why you came to that conclusion.

 

I don't think it's any secret that the reputation of our current prospect group is due more to the quality at the top rather than quantity...after the top 4-5 there is a steep drop off, and as I mentioned, most players on a minor league roster are ultimately organizational filler or guys who will never sniff the major leagues (and aren't really expected to) anyway. So going to a game and expecting the whole roster to be loaded with studs, and deciding the system must be overrated because it isn't, is really missing the point. Again, if you picked out Moncada and Benintendi and (maybe) Dubon, then you hit most of the prospect highlights from Portland. There wasn't much to watch there before those guys were promoted.

 

Jack - I really didn't expect to see a roster filled with studs but once again I wasn't particularly excited by what I saw athletically. I understand that they a poor baseball team but once again I was hoping to see just a bit more from purely an athletic standpoint. Moncada, Rosario, and Coyle stood out. That is my opinion. It might not be what others see or want to hear.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, that's the way I read it too. I just don't understand why they would try it. Easy enough to get caught, obviously. Should withhold judgment until verdict is in, I guess.

The verdict is in. I know that MVP already posted a tweet on this. Here is a report on the International Signing ban for 1 Year. Plus, last year's signings are voided. Of course, one or more of them will go on to super stardom with another organization. It seems that we just went over budget. If so, that is really delinquent -- organizational incompetence. Who screwed this up last year? BC or DD?

 

Reports: Red Sox banned from signing international amateur players for next year

 

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[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: right]07.01.16 at 11:49 am ET[/TD]

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By Ryan Hannable

According to multiple reports, the Red Sox have been banned from signing international players for the next year and had five of their prospects declared free agents after a MLB investigation found a violation of signing rules last year.

The Red Sox were limited to spending a maximum of $300,000 on a prospect last year and manipulated that by using “package deals” where an agent would have two players sign and give some money that was said to be all for one player to that other player. They had the $300,000 cap because it exceeded spending limits the year before when they signed Yoan Moncada.

 

The five players declared free agents are outfielders Albert Guaimaro and Simon Muzziotti, infielders Antonio Pinero and Eduardo Torrealba, and right-handed pitcher Cesar Gonzalez. They can sign with any other team as of Saturday, the start of the new international signing period.

 

The Red Sox can still sign major league international free agents, but this will certainly be a huge blow to their developmental system as they have a number of talented international minor leaguers in their system, including top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza and third baseman Rafael Devers.

Baseball America was first to report this was a possibility Thursday night.

[mvp 78]

The verdict is in. I know that MVP already posted a tweet on this. Here is a report on the International Signing ban for 1 Year. Plus, last year's signings are voided. Of course, one or more of them will go on to super stardom with another organization. It seems that we just went over budget. If so, that is really delinquent -- organizational incompetence. Who screwed this up last year? BC or DD?

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/134057576/red-sox-sign-albert-guaimaro-simon-muzziotti

 

The guys were signed in July. Dombrowski wasn't on board until August.

[mvp 78]

"The violations occurred under the stewardship of former Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, not current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski."

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/07/01/red-sox-penalized-for-international-signing-violations/HPinJrtIf9hu6zi8yXcO6I/story.html

 

Thanks Ben.

[a700hitter]

"The violations occurred under the stewardship of former Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, not current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski."

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/07/01/red-sox-penalized-for-international-signing-violations/HPinJrtIf9hu6zi8yXcO6I/story.html

 

Thanks Ben.

And more of his incompetence is revealed. MVP, you are a CPA. Does this seem like it was more than a gross mismanagement of budget?

[Spudboy]

Dumb f***s.

[a700hitter]

Dumb f***s.

It looks that way. I am interested in getting MVP's view of this since he is CPA. Do we have any Finance people on TalkSox?

[Jack Flap]

And more of his incompetence is revealed. MVP, you are a CPA. Does this seem like it was more than a gross mismanagement of budget?

 

This wasn't mismanagement of the budget...it was deliberate circumvention of the rules.

 

'Boston was limited last year to spending a maximum of $300,000 on international prospects after exceeding its spending limit the year before by spending $62 million on Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada. The Red Sox skirted the $300,000 threshold by packaging highly regarded prospects with lesser ones, paying both similarly and allowing the players’ agent to give the lion’s share of the money to the better prospect, according to the source.'

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/source-red-sox-banned-from-signing-international-players-for-a-year-153432545.html

 

 

Basically, you sign a group of kids with the same agent for $300K each, and the agent then distributes the money behind the scenes, with a higher amount going to the better prospects...explaining how the Red Sox were able to land two top talents (Guiarmo and Muzziotti) last July despite being hit with spending restrictions.

 

Hard to feel sorry for the team...they really brought this on themselves. At least the penalty only extends to the 2016-17 signing period (where they would, again, have been limited to $300K per player anyway) and not the year after, when the restrictions will be lifted.

[a700hitter]

This wasn't mismanagement of the budget...it was deliberate circumvention of the rules.

 

'Boston was limited last year to spending a maximum of $300,000 on international prospects after exceeding its spending limit the year before by spending $62 million on Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada. The Red Sox skirted the $300,000 threshold by packaging highly regarded prospects with lesser ones, paying both similarly and allowing the players’ agent to give the lion’s share of the money to the better prospect, according to the source.'

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/source-red-sox-banned-from-signing-international-players-for-a-year-153432545.html

 

 

Basically, you sign a group of kids with the same agent for $300K each, and the agent then distributes the money behind the scenes, with a higher amount going to the better prospects...explaining how the Red Sox were able to land two top talents (Guiarmo and Muzziotti) last July despite being hit with spending restrictions.

 

Hard to feel sorry for the team...they really brought this on themselves. At least the penalty only extends to the 2016-17 signing period (where they would, again, have been limited to $300K per player anyway) and not the year after, when the restrictions will be lifted.

So it wasn't innocent incompetence. It was conniving stupidity. I wonder where this lesson is in Ben's syllabus.

[a700hitter]

Dumb f***s.

this is a prime example of why I don't have a high opinion of baseball management and consider them to be overpaid suits that couldn't run a candy store in Brooklyn.

[Hugh2]

The verdict is in. I know that MVP already posted a tweet on this. Here is a report on the International Signing ban for 1 Year. Plus, last year's signings are voided. Of course, one or more of them will go on to super stardom with another organization. It seems that we just went over budget. If so, that is really delinquent -- organizational incompetence. Who screwed this up last year? BC or DD?

 

They didn't go over budget, they tried to circumnavigate the rules to try and bring in talent without handing out big bonuses. It wasn't technically wrong as their is/was no policy against what they did. It was an open secrete, they weren't hiding it and while anyone can make a good argument that what they did was wrong and perhaps they do deserve penalties the frustrating thing is that many other organizations have been doing the same exact thing.

[Hugh2]

this is a prime example of why I don't have a high opinion of baseball management and consider them to be overpaid suits that couldn't run a candy store in Brooklyn.

 

You think you could run a team better?

 

I bet I couldn't.

[Hugh2]

I actually new the Sox were doing this a year ago. There was talk all around baseball BEFORE they signed any of these guys that this is what all the teams who went over budget prior years and were limited to 300K per player were talking about doing.

 

Soxprospects were talking about teams doing it, baseball america were talking about teams doing it, it was an open secrete. It really seems a bit odd that the Sox are being made an example of here when there are other teams that surely should be penalized as well.

[a700hitter]

You think you could run a team better?

 

I bet I couldn't.

I'd give it a shot. I am pretty capable. I was the lead attorney on a Pension Plan worth more than the Red Sox.

[Hugh2]

I'd give it a shot. I am pretty capable. I was the lead attorney on a Pension Plan worth more than the Red Sox.

 

Well....to be fair that's so pretty legit credento's there. Still I think you'd need maybe a year or two as an assistant G.M. before you might be able to take over a team.

 

You could call it your "minor league development"

[User Name]

I actually new the Sox were doing this a year ago. There was talk all around baseball BEFORE they signed any of these guys that this is what all the teams who went over budget prior years and were limited to 300K per player were talking about doing.

 

Soxprospects were talking about teams doing it, baseball america were talking about teams doing it, it was an open secrete. It really seems a bit odd that the Sox are being made an example of here when there are other teams that surely should be penalized as well.

 

They were the most obvious target because they were the ones who were bending the rules the most.

[a700hitter]

I actually new the Sox were doing this a year ago. There was talk all around baseball BEFORE they signed any of these guys that this is what all the teams who went over budget prior years and were limited to 300K per player were talking about doing.

 

Soxprospects were talking about teams doing it, baseball america were talking about teams doing it, it was an open secrete. It really seems a bit odd that the Sox are being made an example of here when there are other teams that surely should be penalized as well.

Maybe no one else did it. Do you think that MLB would selectively enforce this rule? I don't.

[a700hitter]

Well....to be fair that's so pretty legit credento's there. Still I think you'd need maybe a year or two as an assistant G.M. before you might be able to take over a team.

 

You could call it your "minor league development"

I am retired now, but it would be a fun second career. LOL!! I am still only 57 and look years younger than the cadaverous JH.

[Jack Flap]

I actually new the Sox were doing this a year ago. There was talk all around baseball BEFORE they signed any of these guys that this is what all the teams who went over budget prior years and were limited to 300K per player were talking about doing.

 

Soxprospects were talking about teams doing it, baseball america were talking about teams doing it, it was an open secrete. It really seems a bit odd that the Sox are being made an example of here when there are other teams that surely should be penalized as well.

 

I forget where I read this today, but apparently this was the first instance of a team subject to MLB spending restrictions using this method to get around those restrictions...which would definitely explain the harshness of the penalties. If these $300K limitations were going to have any teeth going forward, the league had to put its foot down.

[Hugh2]

Maybe no one else did it. Do you think that MLB would selectively enforce this rule? I don't.

 

Perhaps the Sox were more open and deliberate about it and they thought they had to put their foot down as slasher said. The thing that doesn't sit right with me is that these guys were signed over a YEAR ago, and it wasn't that secretive. You would think that the league would have been clearer and warned teams or clarified the rules prior.

 

Do I think the Sox probably did it more than any other team and thats' why they are being punished? Yes, but I'm skeptical that if they were a smaller market team that they'd be coming down on them like this. All these spending rules, and bonus penalties are derived from the fact that baseball is trying to pump up small markets and create more parity in baseball.

[Hugh2]

I hope the Sox go ape-s*** crazy on July 2nd 2017 and just sign every single highly regarded International free agent as a giant F.U. to MLB.

[Jack Flap]

I hope the Sox go ape-s*** crazy on July 2nd 2017 and just sign every single highly regarded International free agent as a giant F.U. to MLB.

 

I was thinking the same thing, lol. Time to start reading up on next year's big talents...

[Hugh2]

Here is an excerpt from ESPN's KEITH LAW from a chat earlier.

 

Matt Neffer: Keith, in your opinion, should the Red Sox be penalized for their actions in the last international signing period or are they just doing what every other clubs does but on a larger scale?

 

Klaw: Most clubs do it. Boston got caught. I don’t think the penalty is that big of a deal, though, as they’re going to lose a handful of low-probability 16- and 17-year-old prospects, none of whom projected (yet) as average or better guys. Maybe it will end up hurting them, but this seems more like a message sent to other clubs not to pull the same maneuver … even though the system provides plenty of incentive for everyone to do this. See my previous answer

[Emp9]

We just traded away excellent mid level prospects Margot, Guerra, Allen and Asuaje. We still have Kopech, Travis, Dubon, Chavis, Hernandez, Light, TBall & Ockimey. Other teams have these type of prospects as their 2-3-4-5 prospects. Are their 6-7-8-9-10 prospects really much better than the ones I listed above?

 

Both Margot & Guerra were top 100 though weren't they? I considered Margot a blue chipper, would that be acurate?

[Hugh2]

Both Margot & Guerra were top 100 though weren't they? I considered Margot a blue chipper, would that be acurate?

 

He's hitting .298/.353/.423 in AAA with 22 SB's and excellent defense in CF.

 

Sure could of used us some Margot right about now.