Who is the Biggest Problem Right Now?

[Bellhorn04]

I think everyone is aware that underperformance by both our offense and our pitching are responsible for our record. They're about equally responsibly, perhaps.

 

This is about heat being directed at Ben and the FO.

 

The difference is that Ben and the FO made a major effort to upgrade the offense. Nobody is criticizing them about that. The criticism is that they could have done more to upgrade the pitching and they made a clear decision not to.

[Spudboy]

I think everyone is aware that underperformance by both our offense and our pitching are responsible for our record. They're about equally responsibly, perhaps.

 

This is about heat being directed at Ben and the FO.

 

The difference is that Ben and the FO made a major effort to upgrade the offense. Nobody is criticizing them about that. The criticism is that they could have done more to upgrade the pitching and they made a clear decision not to.

 

Which is notable because they jettisoned 80% of their rotation last year. I had expected that they would do more to rebuild it but I continue to expect that they will do so with the apparent abundance of SP this fall.

 

We all knew that the Sox were in need of offensive fortification from what we saw of the 2014 team.

[jd98]

This is why you need to look at peripheral stats and other factors, and not go by ERA alone. Masterson, Buchholz, and Miley all pitched better than their ERAs. Masterson was injured last year. Porcello has been the victim of terrible defenses behind him. Vazquez and Hanigan are both highly touted defensive catchers, especially in the area of pitch framing. IMO, the level of underperformance this year is surprising.

 

I don't agree with everything here, but it's fair enough and I'm not gonna try to nitpick everything.

 

I do want to to talk about the idea that Porcello was a victim of bad defense in Detroit. More generally, the thought that a pitcher's ERA will suffer because of poor defense. I'm not sure that's the case. Poor range, not turning double plays, stuff like that hurts for sure. But actual errors can only help a pitcher's ERA. Anything a direct result of the error isn't counting anyway, and now anything after 2 outs is not counting either. A 2-out error, followed by 2 hits, 3 walks and a HR is a 0.00 ERA. If the error was an out, and the next 6 batters did the same thing the next inning, it's 6 ER. That's on the extreme side, but illustrates the point. I don't know which of the bad defense factors has more influence on ERA, but it's food for thought anyway.

 

It's interesting that Oakland is 1st in AL ERA, and have by far the most errors. Not suggesting it's a direct relation because obviously there are much more important factors in the ERA than what I was suggesting. But it shows very clearly how errors, which are a big part of poor defense, is only helping ERA.

[Elktonnick]

ERA is an excellent measure of overall pitching excellence. It is a simple indicator. Regarding Porcello I believe he has the worst ERA at 5,90 of any atarter in the AL and opponents are hitting 297 against him. Those numbers aren't the result of poor defense. To suggest it is, is just wrong.

[User Name]

The only thing Porcello is a victim of this year, is unadulterated sucking.

[BigPapi]

They are where they are mostly because of the putrid offense in May. If the offense scored and average of 5 runs/game in May, even with the stafff underperforming, we'd be a first place team.

 

What the hell are you talking about. The offense and the unearned runs saved the pitching's ass in May. The pitching had a friggin 5.04 era in June. The pitching is still dead last in the al. The pitching has also failed to have an average month where they pitched to the american league average era of 3.85. I do agree that the offense was certainly the biggest problem in may by scoring only 2.8 runs a game, but the red sox offense has had above average run production of 4.2 runs per game in april( over 5 runs a game)' june (over 4.5 runs a game), and july (5.44 runs a game). Overall, our offense has been average and our pitching has been the worst in the al. The offense has been fine except for may, and the pitching was terrible in april, below average in may, a little below average in june, and has been below average so far in july with a 4.78 era. It has obviously been the pitching's fault primarily.

[sk7326]

I don't agree with everything here, but it's fair enough and I'm not gonna try to nitpick everything.

 

I do want to to talk about the idea that Porcello was a victim of bad defense in Detroit. More generally, the thought that a pitcher's ERA will suffer because of poor defense. I'm not sure that's the case. Poor range, not turning double plays, stuff like that hurts for sure. But actual errors can only help a pitcher's ERA. Anything a direct result of the error isn't counting anyway, and now anything after 2 outs is not counting either. A 2-out error, followed by 2 hits, 3 walks and a HR is a 0.00 ERA. If the error was an out, and the next 6 batters did the same thing the next inning, it's 6 ER. That's on the extreme side, but illustrates the point. I don't know which of the bad defense factors has more influence on ERA, but it's food for thought anyway.

 

It's interesting that Oakland is 1st in AL ERA, and have by far the most errors. Not suggesting it's a direct relation because obviously there are much more important factors in the ERA than what I was suggesting. But it shows very clearly how errors, which are a big part of poor defense, is only helping ERA.

 

The number of earned and unearned runs across the game is small and fairly consistent. Also, what is an earned and unearned run is largely left to opinion. Obviously if a guy who reached on an error came around to score that is unambiguous, but other cases are more esoteric.

 

A bad defense influences the number of actual runs of all flavours. After all, you replace human fielders with potted plants and suddenly many balls are getting through the infield. Oakland leads the league in ERA - but you almost expect that since their pitchers aren't terrible and they play in one of the best pitcher's parks in the whole league.

 

Anyway, digging on this - the top AL teams in runs allowed and ERA and FIP

 

Royals 3.61 - 3.51 - 3.83

Rays 3.76 - 3.57 - 3.81

Astros 3.79 - 3.58 - 3.62

Angels 3.82 - 3.65 - 3.88

A's 3.84 - 3.41 - 3.62

Orioles 3.97 - 3.76 - 4.07

Mariners 3.98 - 3.76 - 3.92

Twins 4.08 - 3.85 - 4.07

Guardians 4.18 - 3.80 - 3.35

White Sox 4.26 - 3.91 - 3.57

Yankees 4.33 - 3.96 - 3.64

Jays 4.37 - 4.13 - 4.11

Rangers 4.52 - 4.24 - 4.37

Tigers 4.67 - 4.27 - 4.17

Red Sox 4.67 - 4.40 - 3.98

 

If you take the numbers together ... he A's clearly allow the most unearned runs ... since they have committed the most errors, that is not a stunner. On the other hand, the A's get to so many balls that only 0.22 runs per game is explained by defense.

 

In an aside, when you see the Red Sox' RA/FIP spread the REAL miscalculation Ben made is clear.

[jd98]

The number of earned and unearned runs across the game is small and fairly consistent. Also, what is an earned and unearned run is largely left to opinion. Obviously if a guy who reached on an error came around to score that is unambiguous, but other cases are more esoteric.

 

A bad defense influences the number of actual runs of all flavours. After all, you replace human fielders with potted plants and suddenly many balls are getting through the infield. Oakland leads the league in ERA - but you almost expect that since their pitchers aren't terrible and they play in one of the best pitcher's parks in the whole league.

 

Anyway, digging on this - the top AL teams in runs allowed and ERA and FIP

 

Royals 3.61 - 3.51 - 3.83

Rays 3.76 - 3.57 - 3.81

Astros 3.79 - 3.58 - 3.62

Angels 3.82 - 3.65 - 3.88

A's 3.84 - 3.41 - 3.62

Orioles 3.97 - 3.76 - 4.07

Mariners 3.98 - 3.76 - 3.92

Twins 4.08 - 3.85 - 4.07

Guardians 4.18 - 3.80 - 3.35

White Sox 4.26 - 3.91 - 3.57

Yankees 4.33 - 3.96 - 3.64

Jays 4.37 - 4.13 - 4.11

Rangers 4.52 - 4.24 - 4.37

Tigers 4.67 - 4.27 - 4.17

Red Sox 4.67 - 4.40 - 3.98

 

If you take the numbers together ... he A's clearly allow the most unearned runs ... since they have committed the most errors, that is not a stunner. On the other hand, the A's get to so many balls that only 0.22 runs per game is explained by defense.

 

In an aside, when you see the Red Sox' RA/FIP spread the REAL miscalculation Ben made is clear.

 

That he focused too much on FIP in acquiring pitchers rather than stuff that mattered? I'm mostly kidding. You're obviously referring to the Sox poor defense. I'm just not a believer in FIP at all except for what it is, a conglomerate of BB, K, and HR.

 

Anyway, good stuff, thanks for posting this. It's the kind of stuff I was looking for. I was curious if 'poor defense' actually lowers ERA instead of the normal perception that it raises ERA. I don't trust FIP as the indicator of defense to attempt to draw any conclusions for myself.

[sk7326]

What the hell are you talking about. The offense and the unearned runs saved the pitching's ass in May. The pitching had a friggin 5.04 era in June. The pitching is still dead last in the al. The pitching has also failed to have an average month where they pitched to the american league average era of 3.85. I do agree that the offense was certainly the biggest problem in may by scoring only 2.8 runs a game, but the red sox offense has had above average run production of 4.2 runs per game in april( over 5 runs a game)' june (over 4.5 runs a game), and july (5.44 runs a game). Overall, our offense has been average and our pitching has been the worst in the al. The offense has been fine except for may, and the pitching was terrible in april, below average in may, a little below average in june, and has been below average so far in july with a 4.78 era. It has obviously been the pitching's fault primarily.

 

When our offense has been productive, we have won ... when it hasn't we haven't. Now their poor record is the pitching's fault - in the way that the Patriots in 2011 had a s***** secondary. In NEITHER case was the "formula for team victory" built on those areas of the game being amazing ... they were built for an offense to do the lifting and the defense to be sufficient. So when the team fails (like the Patriots did in that Super Bowl) blaming the DEFENSE when the vaunted offense could not get to 28 points is somewhat misguided.

[BigPapi]

When our offense has been productive, we have won ... when it hasn't we haven't. Now their poor record is the pitching's fault - in the way that the Patriots in 2011 had a s***** secondary. In NEITHER case was the "formula for team victory" built on those areas of the game being amazing ... they were built for an offense to do the lifting and the defense to be sufficient. So when the team fails (like the Patriots did in that Super Bowl) blaming the DEFENSE when the vaunted offense could not get to 28 points is somewhat misguided.

 

First off, Bill Bellichick uses a bend don't break defense. The pats were actually 15th in points allowed in 2011, but in yards allowed they were 31st. Thats kind of like having a terrible whip but being average in era because you didn't allow too many hrs. THE RED SOX THIS YEAR ARE DEAD LAST IN ERA. If our pitching was league average, we would be .500 or a little better. Now I never said that the offense has been good this season. It's been average, which is dissapointing for what we believed was a top offense. The reason why we have been a bad team instead of an average one is the pitching.

[sk7326]

First off, Bill Bellichick uses a bend don't break defense. The pats were actually 15th in points allowed in 2011, but in yards allowed they were 31st. Thats kind of like having a terrible whip but being average in era because you didn't allow too many hrs. THE RED SOX THIS YEAR ARE DEAD LAST IN ERA. If our pitching was league average, we would be .500 or a little better. Now I never said that the offense has been good this season. It's been average, which is dissapointing for what we believed was a top offense. The reason why we have been a bad team instead of an average one is the pitching.

 

That is a seductive narrative which actually flies in the face of what actually has happened.

[BigPapi]

That is a seductive narrative which actually flies in the face of what actually has happened.

 

I would respond to this excpet that I'm not smart enough to know what you mean ahhahaha.

[User Name]

He's saying you're wrong, and you are.

[iortiz]

First off, Bill Bellichick uses a bend don't break defense. The pats were actually 15th in points allowed in 2011, but in yards allowed they were 31st. Thats kind of like having a terrible whip but being average in era because you didn't allow too many hrs. THE RED SOX THIS YEAR ARE DEAD LAST IN ERA. If our pitching was league average, we would be .500 or a little better. Now I never said that the offense has been good this season. It's been average, which is dissapointing for what we believed was a top offense. The reason why we have been a bad team instead of an average one is the pitching.

 

Pretty much of what is happening. Time to rebuild.

[Bellhorn04]

If:

 

The offense was expected to be top of the pack and instead it's middle of the pack.

The pitching was expected to be middle of the pack and instead it's bottom of the pack.

 

Are they not roughly equally responsible?

[BigPapi]

If:

 

The offense was expected to be top of the pack and instead it's middle of the pack.

The pitching was expected to be middle of the pack and instead it's bottom of the pack.

 

Are they not roughly equally responsible?

 

No, because who is underperforming offensively (besides napoli?)

[User Name]

No, because who is underperforming offensively (besides napoli?)

 

Is this serious?

[Bellhorn04]

No, because who is underperforming offensively (besides napoli?)

 

Didn't you expect this team to score more than 4.2 runs a game?

[BigPapi]

Didn't you expect this team to score more than 4.2 runs a game?

 

Yes, I did. Because I was stupid.But look at everyones stats right now, Who, besides nap, is underperforming?

[Bellhorn04]

Anyway, it seems kind of odd for us to be trying to pin all the blame on one or the other when they are both well below expectations.

[Kimmi]

It's the pitching. It is always pitching. Besides a very weak rotation, the bullpen isn't that solid either. The reason the sox are below 500 is because their pitching is the worst in the American league by ERA , only Philadelphia and Colorado have a poorer team ERA than Boston. BTW I believe only one team in all of MLB has averaged more than 5 run per game and that is the Blue Jays who have 476 runs through 90 games. Expecting a team to score 5 runs per game is somewhat unrealistic in today's game with offenses down throughout baseball.

 

The offense was supposed to be the best in baseball. They were built to mash, not to pitch. Averaging 5 runs/game might be pushing it a bit (though not unrealistic), but they should be able to average 4.7 or 4.8 runs/game. In May, they averaged 2.8 runs/game and had a 10-19 record. If they could have scored 4 runs/game they would have had a 15-14 record that month and would be in first place.

[BigPapi]

Is this serious?

 

I am serious. Find someone who is underperforming besides nap who is either a utility player or starter,

[User Name]

Yes, I did. Because I was stupid.But look at everyones stats right now, Who, besides nap, is underperforming?

 

David Ortiz: .762 OPS

Panda: .691 OPS

Napoli: .648 OPS

Victorino: .644 OPS

Castillo: .544 OPS

Nava: .440 OPS

Craig: .430 OPS

 

Four regulars, and a bunch of guys who killed the team until they got rid of them.

 

Again, was the question serious?

[User Name]

Anyway, it seems kind of odd for us to be trying to pin all the blame on one or the other when they are both well below expectations.

 

My finger is on the coaching staff. Crappy fundamentals, bad defense and widespread underperformance.

[BigPapi]

David Ortiz: .762 OPS

Panda: .691 OPS

Napoli: .648 OPS

Victorino: .644 OPS

Castillo: .544 OPS

Nava: .440 OPS

Craig: .430 OPS

 

Four regulars, and a bunch of guys who killed the team until they got rid of them.

 

Again, was the question serious?

 

David isn't underperforming. He's old,

 

Panda is staying true to his trend and is about what he was last year.

 

Victorino has been injured like last year.

 

Craig sucked last year and only played a month this year and sucked

 

Rusney was unproven and only idiots would think he was going to rake,

 

Nava hasn't been a regular for a while now.

 

The truth is, no one who is in the lineup now is really underpeforming except nap.

[Kimmi]

ERA is an excellent measure of overall pitching excellence. It is a simple indicator. Regarding Porcello I believe he has the worst ERA at 5,90 of any atarter in the AL and opponents are hitting 297 against him. Those numbers aren't the result of poor defense. To suggest it is, is just wrong.

 

I disagree that ERA is an excellent measure of pitching excellence. Not as a stat in and of itself. ERA is very much a team driven stat.

 

I am not saying that Porcello's poor season this year is due to poor defense. What I am saying is that Porcello had a poor defense playing behind him in Detroit, and his ERA reflected that. Therefore, it was not unrealistic to expect him to pitch better this year with what was supposed to be a very good defense behind him.

[User Name]

David isn't underperforming. He's old,

 

Panda is staying true to his trend and is about what he was last year.

 

Victorino has been injured like last year.

 

Craig sucked last year and only played a month this year and sucked

 

Rusney was unproven and only idiots would think he was going to rake,

 

Nava hasn't been a regular for a while now.

 

The truth is, no one who is in the lineup now is really underpeforming except nap.

 

Do you know what "underperforming" means? Because you either don't, or this entire post is a massive cop-out. None of these guys were expected, or projected, to be this bad.

[mvp 78]

ERA is stupid. If the pitcher makes an error with 2 outs, then allows the next 10 guys to hit homeruns, none of the runs are earned. Stupid.

[BigPapi]

Do you know what "underperforming" means? Because you either don't, or this entire post is a massive cop-out. None of these guys were expected, or projected, to be this bad.

 

I am admitting that I was stupid too believe in the hype of this great offense. We all were. No ley member of our offense who is playing now besides nap is underperforming.

[User Name]

I am admitting that I was stupid too believe in the hype of this great offense. We all were. No ley member of our offense who is playing now besides nap is underperforming.

 

That's the point. The offense has recovered, but they were instrumental in burying into the hole we currently are, and the overall numbers reflect that.