Who is the Biggest Problem Right Now?

[Kimmi]

I don't agree with everything here, but it's fair enough and I'm not gonna try to nitpick everything.

 

I do want to to talk about the idea that Porcello was a victim of bad defense in Detroit. More generally, the thought that a pitcher's ERA will suffer because of poor defense. I'm not sure that's the case. Poor range, not turning double plays, stuff like that hurts for sure. But actual errors can only help a pitcher's ERA. Anything a direct result of the error isn't counting anyway, and now anything after 2 outs is not counting either. A 2-out error, followed by 2 hits, 3 walks and a HR is a 0.00 ERA. If the error was an out, and the next 6 batters did the same thing the next inning, it's 6 ER. That's on the extreme side, but illustrates the point. I don't know which of the bad defense factors has more influence on ERA, but it's food for thought anyway.

 

It's interesting that Oakland is 1st in AL ERA, and have by far the most errors. Not suggesting it's a direct relation because obviously there are much more important factors in the ERA than what I was suggesting. But it shows very clearly how errors, which are a big part of poor defense, is only helping ERA.

 

I understand what you're saying. I just don't think you can judge defense by errors alone. I think teams give up more runs defensively from players not getting to balls due to lack of range than they do by errors. Either way, when you see a huge gap between a pitcher's ERA and his FIP and/or SIERA, something is going on beyond a pitcher's control.

[BigPapi]

That's the point. The offense has recovered, but they were instrumental in burying into the hole we currently are, and the overall numbers reflect that.

 

You can't expect an offense to score five runs a game every month. Your stupid if you do,

[Kimmi]

What the hell are you talking about. The offense and the unearned runs saved the pitching's ass in May. The pitching had a friggin 5.04 era in June. The pitching is still dead last in the al. The pitching has also failed to have an average month where they pitched to the american league average era of 3.85. I do agree that the offense was certainly the biggest problem in may by scoring only 2.8 runs a game, but the red sox offense has had above average run production of 4.2 runs per game in april( over 5 runs a game)' june (over 4.5 runs a game), and july (5.44 runs a game). Overall, our offense has been average and our pitching has been the worst in the al. The offense has been fine except for may, and the pitching was terrible in april, below average in may, a little below average in june, and has been below average so far in july with a 4.78 era. It has obviously been the pitching's fault primarily.

 

What are you talking about? The offense didn't save anything in May. I know the pitching has been last or close to last all season long. The offense, which is what this team was built around, was last in baseball in May. Had they done their job in May, we would be in first place.

[User Name]

You can't expect an offense to score five runs a game every month. Your stupid if you do,

 

But scoring 2.8 runs a game for any given month is not normal either. That's what underperformance means.

[Elktonnick]

No stat is perfect but ERA especially over the course of a season is a pretty damn good measure of performance especially as a comparative. You can rationalize all you want but the starting pitching sucks and that's the main (but not the only ) reason why this team is in last place.

 

BTW Last year Porcello pitched in Comerica Park. One should have expected that he would find it a bit more difficult to pitch at Fenway. To pay Porcello as if he were a Lester is one dumb move. Cherrington should be fired for that idiocy alone.

[Kimmi]

When our offense has been productive, we have won ... when it hasn't we haven't. Now their poor record is the pitching's fault - in the way that the Patriots in 2011 had a s***** secondary. In NEITHER case was the "formula for team victory" built on those areas of the game being amazing ... they were built for an offense to do the lifting and the defense to be sufficient. So when the team fails (like the Patriots did in that Super Bowl) blaming the DEFENSE when the vaunted offense could not get to 28 points is somewhat misguided.

 

That sums it up pretty nicely.

[BigPapi]

But scoring 2.8 runs a game for any given month is not normal either. That's what underperformance means.

 

 

Its called variance.

[Kimmi]

If:

 

The offense was expected to be top of the pack and instead it's middle of the pack.

The pitching was expected to be middle of the pack and instead it's bottom of the pack.

 

Are they not roughly equally responsible?

 

Fair point, but let me say this.

 

The month of May is what has put the team in the hole that they are in. The offense wasn't just last in May, they were horrific.

 

The offense was pretty good in April (albeit with a lot of gift runs given to them), and they have recovered in June/July. Our record month by month has pretty much gone the way our runs scored/game has gone.

 

If we played .500 ball in May, we'd be right at the top of the division with the Yankees.

[Kimmi]

Anyway, it seems kind of odd for us to be trying to pin all the blame on one or the other when they are both well below expectations.

 

I'm not really trying to pin all the blame on one or the other. I'm just trying to defend my opinion against those who are putting all the blame on the pitching, and those who are faulting Ben's strategy of building this rotation.

[Kimmi]

Its called variance.

 

This is not normal variance. Far from it.

[Kimmi]

No stat is perfect but ERA especially over the course of a season is a pretty damn good measure of performance especially as a comparative. You can rationalize all you want but the starting pitching sucks and that's the main (but not the only ) reason why this team is in last place.

 

BTW Last year Porcello pitched in Comerica Park. One should have expected that he would find it a bit more difficult to pitch at Fenway. To pay Porcello as if he were a Lester is one dumb move. Cherrington should be fired for that idiocy alone.

 

I don't think anyone is saying that the starting pitching doesn't stink.

 

As far as it being more difficult to pitch at Fenway, that should not be the case for a groundball pitcher with a better defense behind him. I realize that he has not been the groundball pitcher that everyone expected, but pitching at Fenway versus Comerica should not have been a problem for Porcello.

[User Name]

Its called variance.

 

You don't know what variance is.

[BigPapi]

This is not normal variance. Far from it.

 

I'm done with the nitpicking. All of you who think wade Miley is good because if you take away his april and july he has an era in the mid 3's are fooling yourselves. The pitching has sucked, and the run production has been average, That''s it.

Edited July 12, 2015 by BigPapi

[Spudboy]

Why debate which aspect of the team sucks the most?

 

Suck is suck.

 

This team has sucked most of this season.

[Elktonnick]

I don't think anyone is saying that the starting pitching doesn't stink.

 

As far as it being more difficult to pitch at Fenway, that should not be the case for a groundball pitcher with a better defense behind him. I realize that he has not been the groundball pitcher that everyone expected, but pitching at Fenway versus Comerica should not have been a problem for Porcello.

 

Poor defense didn't give up 16 home runs. The alleged poor defense didn't cause him to throw sinkers that didn't sink etc. The alleged poor defense can't account for hitters batting 297 off him. It is Porcello who grossly under performed. He has no one to blame but himself.

[BigPapi]

Poor defense didn't give up 16 home runs. The alleged poor defense didn't cause him to throw sinkers that didn't sink etc. The alleged poor defense can't account for hitters batting 297 off him. It is Porcello who grossly under performed. He has no one to blame but himself.

 

Exactly.

[iortiz]

Thing is that this pitching staff was not a mediocre one when the season started, it was a very bad one since day one. Some of us said that over and over again in the offseason. As I said, the strategy was death wrong from the beginning. Here the results; we are one of the worst teams in that department.

 

Regarding Porcello, Elk is right, He has no one to blame but himself.

 

Said that, we need to rebuild the FO first, I do not care we are in the mid of the season... Start the rebuilding process right away, this team is a joke.

[a700hitter]

If:

 

The offense was expected to be top of the pack and instead it's middle of the pack.

The pitching was expected to be middle of the pack and instead it's bottom of the pack.

 

Are they not roughly equally responsible?

No. One aspect; i.e. the offense is good enough to be playoff quality, the other aspect; i.e. the pitching is so horrendous that it is the worst in the league. Your argument is just silly, but in order to stop this silly merry-go-round of nonsense, I am going to concede and admit that Ben did a fine job putting together the pitching staff and that the offense is our ruination. Damn you Big Papi and Hanley and your 34 combined Home Runs and Bogaerts and your .300 BA and Holt with your 4th highest OBP in the league and damn you Pedroia performing to your lofty career standards and Betts with your break out season. Damn you all!! You let down Ben!!

[a700hitter]

Some of the so-called sabremetricians here have lost credibility. Cherry picking one month as the explanation for the sorry ass situation of the 2015 Red Sox runs counter to sound sound statistical study. More than half the season is over and we are a last place team, because we have been the worst team for the first half of the season. We earned ignominy over the entire first half, not a single month. The cherry picking of the offense in May is embarrassingly silly, but I am sure that Ben appreciates the support.

[BigPapi]

Some of the so-called sabremetricians here have lost credibility. Cherry picking one month as the explanation for the sorry ass situation of the 2015 Red Sox runs counter to sound sound statistical study. More than half the season is over and we are a last place team, because we have been the worst team for the first half of the season. We earned ignominy over the entire first half, not a single month. The cherry picking of the offense in May is embarrassingly silly, but I am sure that Ben appreciates the support.

 

I can't stand it either. Just like Miley is a 3.50 era guy if you take away his 8 era in april and his 6.88 era in july.

[Northern Star]

Some of the so-called sabremetricians here have lost credibility. Cherry picking one month as the explanation for the sorry ass situation of the 2015 Red Sox runs counter to sound sound statistical study. More than half the season is over and we are a last place team, because we have been the worst team for the first half of the season. We earned ignominy over the entire first half, not a single month. The cherry picking of the offense in May is embarrassingly silly, but I am sure that Ben appreciates the support.

 

But ya are, Blanche, ya are in last place!

[Kimmi]

Why debate which aspect of the team sucks the most?

 

Suck is suck.

 

This team has sucked most of this season.

 

Why not debate it?

 

What else is there to do?

[a700hitter]

There is no debate. It is clearly not Ben's fault. He put together an epic team. Stupid May offense!!

[Kimmi]

Poor defense didn't give up 16 home runs. The alleged poor defense didn't cause him to throw sinkers that didn't sink etc. The alleged poor defense can't account for hitters batting 297 off him. It is Porcello who grossly under performed. He has no one to blame but himself.

 

I never said that poor defense was to blame for Porcello's pitching this season. This is what I posted earlier:

 

I am not saying that Porcello's poor season this year is due to poor defense. What I am saying is that Porcello had a poor defense playing behind him in Detroit, and his ERA reflected that. Therefore, it was not unrealistic to expect him to pitch better this year with what was supposed to be a very good defense behind him.

 

You stated that we should expect Porcello to pitch worse at Fenway then at Comerica. I am arguing that we should not have expected the parks to make a difference because Porcello is a groundball pitcher, and that we should expect him to pitch better by not having the terrible Detroit defense behind him. Poor defense is not to blamed for how badly he's pitching this year.

[Kimmi]

No. One aspect; i.e. the offense is good enough to be playoff quality, the other aspect; i.e. the pitching is so horrendous that it is the worst in the league. Your argument is just silly, but in order to stop this silly merry-go-round of nonsense, I am going to concede and admit that Ben did a fine job putting together the pitching staff and that the offense is our ruination. Damn you Big Papi and Hanley and your 34 combined Home Runs and Bogaerts and your .300 BA and Holt with your 4th highest OBP in the league and damn you Pedroia performing to your lofty career standards and Betts with your break out season. Damn you all!! You let down Ben!!

 

You can't look at the offense or the pitching in a vacuum like you are. Together, they have to be good enough to score more runs than the other team. The offense was supposed to be the best in baseball, averaging about 5 runs per game. Show me where I'm wrong when I say that if the offense had averaged 5 runs per game like they were expected to, this team would be in first place, despite the league worst ERA.

 

I have presented several sets of numbers to you, and you have not countered with anything other than stating again that the pitching is not good enough to get this team to the playoffs. You are entitled to your point of view, but looking at the gamelogs, the ERAs month by month, and the runs scored/game month by month, that point of view is wrong.

 

To date, the pitching staff has been good enough to keep us in contention if the offense had produced like expected.

[Kimmi]

Some of the so-called sabremetricians here have lost credibility. Cherry picking one month as the explanation for the sorry ass situation of the 2015 Red Sox runs counter to sound sound statistical study. More than half the season is over and we are a last place team, because we have been the worst team for the first half of the season. We earned ignominy over the entire first half, not a single month. The cherry picking of the offense in May is embarrassingly silly, but I am sure that Ben appreciates the support.

 

Nice. Attack the credibility of other posters. How is that any less insulting than what you call UN? out for?

[a700hitter]

You can't look at the offense or the pitching in a vacuum like you are. Together, they have to be good enough to score more runs than the other team. The offense was supposed to be the best in baseball, averaging about 5 runs per game. Show me where I'm wrong when I say that if the offense had averaged 5 runs per game like they were expected to, this team would be in first place, despite the league worst ERA.

 

I have presented several sets of numbers to you, and you have not countered with anything other than stating again that the pitching is not good enough to get this team to the playoffs. You are entitled to your point of view, but looking at the gamelogs, the ERAs month by month, and the runs scored/game month by month, that point of view is wrong.

 

To date, the pitching staff has been good enough to keep us in contention if the offense had produced like expected.

I agree with Ben's assessment of our pitching as stated in my signature. They did their job. Porcello has earned his money. Miley should be on the Wheaties Box. You are right. There is no debate. Ben has positioned our pitching well for the future too.

[Kimmi]

There is no debate. It is clearly not Ben's fault. He put together an epic team. Stupid May offense!!

 

You don't think that one bad month can make or break a season?

 

The team has not been great all season, but they have played at .500 or above each of the other months. It is their play in May that is the difference between leading the division and being in last place.

[Kimmi]

I agree with Ben's assessment of our pitching as stated in my signature. They did their job. Porcello has earned his money. Miley should be on the Wheaties Box. You are right. There is no debate. Ben has positioned our pitching well for the future too.

 

Exactly. You have no valid counterargument, so go with snarkiness instead.

[a700hitter]

Nice. Attack the credibility of other posters. How is that any less insulting than what you call UN? out for?

I like the research you do and the stats you show us. It adds to my enjoyment of this site. We are both huge fans of this team, but these arguments really do make me view your posts as something coming from a homer. Our pitching is putrid. If it performed up to career standards, it still would have been inferior. We earned last place over almost 90 games. It isn't the fault of the hitters in a single month. You are the one viewing the hitting and pitching in a vacuum.