Who is the Biggest Problem Right Now?

[a700hitter]

You don't think that one bad month can make or break a season?

 

The team has not been great all season, but they have played at .500 or above each of the other months. It is their play in May that is the difference between leading the division and being in last place.

I believe that last place or first place is earned over the course of an entire 162 game season. Edited July 13, 2015 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

You don't think that one bad month can make or break a season?

 

The team has not been great all season, but they have played at .500 or above each of the other months. It is their play in May that is the difference between leading the division and being in last place.

You can't take yes for an answer? I am agreeing with you. It is a pointless argument. If you want to think that our staff was properly constructed, go right ahead. It's not worth arguing about.

[BigPapi]

Such a shame the sox offense really wasted a great pitching performance too in may. The pitching staff really stepped it up to go from 15th in the al all the way up to having the 12th best era in may in the al! The pitching was certainly there that month! Edited July 13, 2015 by BigPapi

[iortiz]

Some of the so-called sabremetricians here have lost credibility. Cherry picking one month as the explanation for the sorry ass situation of the 2015 Red Sox runs counter to sound sound statistical study. More than half the season is over and we are a last place team, because we have been the worst team for the first half of the season. We earned ignominy over the entire first half, not a single month. The cherry picking of the offense in May is embarrassingly silly, but I am sure that Ben appreciates the support.

 

funny how cherry picking works around here, huh? LOL!

 

Let's face it, the strategy was death wrong since day one. The pitching staff is a very bad one as some of us predicted in the offseason. Some drank the mediocre=good enough kool aid made by Ben, which is fine, but it's time to move on and put a real GM. It's enough, this team is a joke.

[Elktonnick]

Ben's construct of the pitching staff is indefensible, Masterson, Kelly, Porcello, Miley, and Clay Buchholtz really now. The first two are no longer in the rotation. The third has the worst ERA in the league, the fourth embarrasses his manager on national television and the fifth is day to day even when he is healthy.

[cp176]

Too many unrealistic expectations to start the season with. A lot of assumptions that probably should not have been made. I never really get the feeling that this team has much of a chance of coming back when they fall behind. I wanted to believe in all of the positive thinking points of view but once again there were just too many question marks. We have some good young players but this team is a long ways away from being a good team. It is not a quick fix.

[SoxnCycles]

Exactly. You have no valid counterargument, so go with snarkiness instead.

 

It's all some of these dopes have to work with.

They talk a good game about wanting civil discussion, but that's only as long as you agree with them.

[Kimmi]

I believe that last place or first place is earned over the course of an entire 162 game season.

 

Of course it is. That's why they play the full season. That doesn't mean that one bad month can't be the difference between the postseason or not. How often do you hear the saying about playoffs being lost in April?

[a700hitter]

Of course it is. That's why they play the full season. That doesn't mean that one bad month can't be the difference between the postseason or not. How often do you hear the saying about playoffs being lost in April?

I am usually the one saying it, while being told by people like you that it is "just April" . Every game counts, but to blame one aspect of the team in one month for its failure is cherry picking squared. The Mets June offense has been worse than our May offense, but it's pitching stepped up and won many close games. Sorry, but the offense is not the weak leak of the 2015 team. It is the pitching. It stinks. It is dead last. No offense can support that for a whole season.

[Kimmi]

I like the research you do and the stats you show us. It adds to my enjoyment of this site. We are both huge fans of this team, but these arguments really do make me view your posts as something coming from a homer. Our pitching is putrid. If it performed up to career standards, it still would have been inferior. We earned last place over almost 90 games. It isn't the fault of the hitters in a single month. You are the one viewing the hitting and pitching in a vacuum.

 

No one has ever said that our pitching doesn't stink. No one has ever said that our pitching was supposed to be great or that they are capable of carrying the team. If they performed up to expectations, they would be mediocre. They haven't performed up to expectations, and they have been overall terrible. Would we win more games if the pitching were better? Of course we would. That is not my point. Is that the area that needs to be addressed? Of course it is. That is not my point either.

 

My point is and has always been that if the offense had been performing up to expectations all season long, this team would be leading the division, despite the putrid pitching. You, nor anyone else, has not been able to dispute that. So, you can say that our offense could be Murderer's Row and we still wouldn't win with this pitching staff as many times as you want, but that isn't going to make your statement true.

 

I have said many times that the way this team was constructed is not my preference in ways to construct a team, but there was certainly some sound rationale behind it. The large majority of analysts and computer models agreed, so obviously his strategy is defensible. It hasn't worked, but good strategies don't always work. If it makes you feel better about yourself to call me a homer and to say that I've lost credibility, go right ahead.

[Bellhorn04]

To me the projections that we would have the top offense in the AL, or one of the top offenses, may have been faulty. In 2014 we scored 3.91 runs a game, tied for 3rd worst in the league, and we had an OPS+ of 92, 2nd worst in the league.

 

It baffles me a little how we were going to go from that to the top of the league with the additions we made. But I haven't looked at the projections.

[sk7326]

To me the projections that we would have the top offense in the AL, or one of the top offenses, may have been faulty. In 2014 we scored 3.91 runs a game, tied for 3rd worst in the league, and we had an OPS+ of 92, 2nd worst in the league.

 

It baffles me a little how we were going to go from that to the top of the league with the additions we made. But I haven't looked at the projections.

 

Well ...

 

Sandoval was an improvement over bubkus at 3B

Ortiz's 2014 was not in line with his previous years and almost entirely due to a very low BABIP. He was an upside regression candidate.

Bogaerts was going to improve

Betts was going to be solid as a full time CF

Ramirez was an improvement over bubkus in LF

Napoli was expected to be roughly the player he was in 2013 and 2014 (i.e. quite good)

There were a lot of options for RF if Victorino remained unhealthy, enough for at least one to click

Pedroia would be healthier

 

RF was the most speculative. But none of the above were huge leaps. Basically the idea was that Ramirez and Sandoval were going to make outsized impacts because the positions they were playing were staffed by giant sucking sounds the last season. Also Ortiz' 2014 looked like a legitimate fluke.

 

What has happened is that Napoli and Ortiz' relative dropoffs have not been able to make up for the improvements offensively at 3B and LF. Plus RF and C have remained sore spots - although the latter was liveable.

[a700hitter]

No one has ever said that our pitching doesn't stink. No one has ever said that our pitching was supposed to be great or that they are capable of carrying the team. If they performed up to expectations, they would be mediocre. They haven't performed up to expectations, and they have been overall terrible. Would we win more games if the pitching were better? Of course we would. That is not my point. Is that the area that needs to be addressed? Of course it is. That is not my point either.

 

My point is and has always been that if the offense had been performing up to expectations all season long, this team would be leading the division, despite the putrid pitching. You, nor anyone else, has not been able to dispute that. So, you can say that our offense could be Murderer's Row and we still wouldn't win with this pitching staff as many times as you want, but that isn't going to make your statement true.

 

I have said many times that the way this team was constructed is not my preference in ways to construct a team, but there was certainly some sound rationale behind it. The large majority of analysts and computer models agreed, so obviously his strategy is defensible. It hasn't worked, but good strategies don't always work. If it makes you feel better about yourself to call me a homer and to say that I've lost credibility, go right ahead.

Over the course of the season, the 4.25 ERA (if they had performed to career norms) would have knocked us out of contention early. You study the stats. You know that. Sorry, but you are cherry picking, and I disgree with your premise. If the offense had been better in May, in the end this still would have been a last place team, because of the pitching. It's all opinion. Neither of us has proved anything, but I am pretty sure that it will be the pitching that will be getting upgraded on this team (either this year or next year) not the offense. That will show what the FO thinks is the problem.

[Thunder]

No one has ever said that our pitching doesn't stink. No one has ever said that our pitching was supposed to be great or that they are capable of carrying the team. If they performed up to expectations, they would be mediocre. They haven't performed up to expectations, and they have been overall terrible. Would we win more games if the pitching were better? Of course we would. That is not my point. Is that the area that needs to be addressed? Of course it is. That is not my point either.

 

My point is and has always been that if the offense had been performing up to expectations all season long, this team would be leading the division, despite the putrid pitching. You, nor anyone else, has not been able to dispute that. So, you can say that our offense could be Murderer's Row and we still wouldn't win with this pitching staff as many times as you want, but that isn't going to make your statement true.

 

I have said many times that the way this team was constructed is not my preference in ways to construct a team, but there was certainly some sound rationale behind it. The large majority of analysts and computer models agreed, so obviously his strategy is defensible. It hasn't worked, but good strategies don't always work. If it makes you feel better about yourself to call me a homer and to say that I've lost credibility, go right ahead.

 

I agree with you about the offense. In this two week stretch or so, the offense has begun to wake up. We're 15-9 since June 15, and 10-5 since June 26. Most of those games, it's been the offense leading the way. I wouldn't go so far as to say that the pitching is at a level that I'm comfortable with, but it's definitely better than it was in the middle of May. Everyone's heating up, and we're getting Pedey back now, right after the break. I think it is crucial that we get a pitcher at the deadline. Buchholz won't be gone for too long. If our offense can keep us going for that time, I think we'll be able to move out of last place, when Buchholz, E-Rod, and Hamels (let's be honest, we have a much higher chance at getting Hamels then Cueto) all come together in early August. Plus, I think Miley's been respectable. He needs to stay out his own head, which is his biggest flaw, and a question mark moving forward. Other than that, I think this team looks good. If possible, although it's not the first priority, I would like to see another hitter be pursued at the deadline. Maybe someone like a first basemen, for Nap, of course. Justin Bour on the Marlins sticks out at me.

[Kimmi]

Such a shame the sox offense really wasted a great pitching performance too in may. The pitching staff really stepped it up to go from 15th in the al all the way up to having the 12th best era in may in the al! The pitching was certainly there that month!

 

Who said that the pitching was good in May?

 

I'll post this again:

 

In May, the Sox ERA was 4.12. The Rangers ERA was 4.23. The Yankees ERA, incidentally, was 4.38.

 

The Sox were 10-19 that month. The Rangers were 19-11. The Yankees were 13-16.

 

In other words, the Rangers and Yankees both had worse ERAs during the month of May than the Sox did, yet both had better records. The Rangers had a significantly better record. Now look at the runs scored per game.

 

Sox - 2.8, Rangers - 5.3, Yankees - 4.1

 

The Sox had 10 games that month in which the pitching gave up 4 runs or fewer and the Sox lost. TEN games where the pitching was decent or even very good, and the offense didn't come through. Even if we only won 4 of those games, think of the difference in the standings.

[Kimmi]

Ben's construct of the pitching staff is indefensible, Masterson, Kelly, Porcello, Miley, and Clay Buchholtz really now. The first two are no longer in the rotation. The third has the worst ERA in the league, the fourth embarrasses his manager on national television and the fifth is day to day even when he is healthy.

 

It obvioulsy hasn't worked out, but that does not mean the rationale going into the season was not solid.

[iortiz]

It obvioulsy hasn't worked out, but that does not mean the rationale going into the season was not solid.

 

To me was not solid since day one. Some of us didn't drink that kool aid.

[Kimmi]

Too many unrealistic expectations to start the season with. A lot of assumptions that probably should not have been made. I never really get the feeling that this team has much of a chance of coming back when they fall behind. I wanted to believe in all of the positive thinking points of view but once again there were just too many question marks. We have some good young players but this team is a long ways away from being a good team. It is not a quick fix.

 

Think of how many question marks the Yankees had with both their pitching and their offense. And yet, things are currently working out for them. Is Cashman suddenly GM of the year because things are breaking the right way for the Yankees, but are not breaking the right way for the Sox?

[Bellhorn04]

Well ...

 

Sandoval was an improvement over bubkus at 3B

Ortiz's 2014 was not in line with his previous years and almost entirely due to a very low BABIP. He was an upside regression candidate.

Bogaerts was going to improve

Betts was going to be solid as a full time CF

Ramirez was an improvement over bubkus in LF

Napoli was expected to be roughly the player he was in 2013 and 2014 (i.e. quite good)

There were a lot of options for RF if Victorino remained unhealthy, enough for at least one to click

Pedroia would be healthier

 

RF was the most speculative. But none of the above were huge leaps. Basically the idea was that Ramirez and Sandoval were going to make outsized impacts because the positions they were playing were staffed by giant sucking sounds the last season. Also Ortiz' 2014 looked like a legitimate fluke.

 

What has happened is that Napoli and Ortiz' relative dropoffs have not been able to make up for the improvements offensively at 3B and LF. Plus RF and C have remained sore spots - although the latter was liveable.

 

But Ortiz is almost 40, and on borrowed time one would think. And guys like Napoli have been known to fall off the cliff at around this point in their careers.

 

The projections seem to be based on optimism, without much consideration for 's**t happens'.

[sk7326]

Over the course of the season, the 4.25 ERA (if they had performed to career norms) would have knocked us out of contention early. You study the stats. You know that. Sorry, but you are cherry picking, and I disgree with your premise. If the offense had been better in May, in the end this still would have been a last place team, because of the pitching. It's all opinion. Neither of us has proved anything, but I am pretty sure that it will be the pitching that will be getting upgraded on this team (either this year or next year) not the offense. That will show what the FO thinks is the problem.

 

Those are different points. The FO knew the pitching had to be upgraded in March to get the team to the level we want - you know, the one which wins titles. I don't think the FO expected the pitching to need to be upgraded to get to the level that they NEEDED - to be in a reasonable form of contention, due to the other two thirds of the game.

 

So far the playoff berths in the AL are occupied by the (fWAR ranks):

 

1st (NYY)

4th (Hou)

6th (LAA)

9th (KC)

12th (Min)

 

Really the major miscalculation Ben made was how much the defense would bring to the run prevention operation ... you look at how much Minnesota has been helped by a cavernous home park and good fielders. The leaking oil in the Red Sox defense (the left side primarily) has been the real disappointment.

[Kimmi]

I am usually the one saying it, while being told by people like you that it is "just April" . Every game counts, but to blame one aspect of the team in one month for its failure is cherry picking squared. The Mets June offense has been worse than our May offense, but it's pitching stepped up and won many close games. Sorry, but the offense is not the weak leak of the 2015 team. It is the pitching. It stinks. It is dead last. No offense can support that for a whole season.

 

People "like me" have never said that the games in April don't count. When we say it is "just April" is that it's silly to make any season decisions based on less than a month's worth of play.

 

First off, the Mets offense in June was not worse than our May offense. Secondly, June was the Mets worse month. Thirdly, the Sox were not built around great pitching, they were built around great offense. We have talked many times about how this team was supposed to win a lot of 8-7 games. Well, we have failed to win too many 5-4, 4-3, 3-2 games.

 

Once again, I'm not saying that the pitching is fine or that they are not part of the problem.

[Kimmi]

Well ...

 

Sandoval was an improvement over bubkus at 3B

Ortiz's 2014 was not in line with his previous years and almost entirely due to a very low BABIP. He was an upside regression candidate.

Bogaerts was going to improve

Betts was going to be solid as a full time CF

Ramirez was an improvement over bubkus in LF

Napoli was expected to be roughly the player he was in 2013 and 2014 (i.e. quite good)

There were a lot of options for RF if Victorino remained unhealthy, enough for at least one to click

Pedroia would be healthier

 

RF was the most speculative. But none of the above were huge leaps. Basically the idea was that Ramirez and Sandoval were going to make outsized impacts because the positions they were playing were staffed by giant sucking sounds the last season. Also Ortiz' 2014 looked like a legitimate fluke.

 

What has happened is that Napoli and Ortiz' relative dropoffs have not been able to make up for the improvements offensively at 3B and LF. Plus RF and C have remained sore spots - although the latter was liveable.

 

Thank you for this post. You saved me the time.

[sk7326]

But Ortiz is almost 40, and on borrowed time one would think. And guys like Napoli have been known to fall off the cliff at around this point in their careers.

 

The projections seem to be based on optimism, without much consideration for 's**t happens'.

 

A little bit - although Ortiz in 2014 did not show the signs you'd expect of a guy who was on borrowed time (and in a lot of measurable ways still hasn't). Bat speed hadn't slowed - strikeouts didn't go up. He was doing a lot of the same things without getting the results. I think the projections were fairly in the middle of the bell curve as far as expected outcomes. The drop in Ortiz' hard contact is striking though.

[Kimmi]

Over the course of the season, the 4.25 ERA (if they had performed to career norms) would have knocked us out of contention early. You study the stats. You know that. Sorry, but you are cherry picking, and I disgree with your premise. If the offense had been better in May, in the end this still would have been a last place team, because of the pitching. It's all opinion. Neither of us has proved anything, but I am pretty sure that it will be the pitching that will be getting upgraded on this team (either this year or next year) not the offense. That will show what the FO thinks is the problem.

 

So, you don't think the Sox could have won even 4 more games out of the 10 that they lost in May if they averaged 5 runs per game instead of the mere 2.8 that they did?

 

Of course it will be pitching that the team upgrades. The offense has rebounded and should never have been a weakness to begin with. That shows nothing in terms of how big a problem the lack of offense was for the first part of the year.

[cp176]

Think of how many question marks the Yankees had with both their pitching and their offense. And yet, things are currently working out for them. Is Cashman suddenly GM of the year because things are breaking the right way for the Yankees, but are not breaking the right way for the Sox?

 

I can only speak for myself and in all honesty i made no study of the Yankees and their potential for this season. I have nothing to say really about Cashman. i don't see any team in the aLe as really being all that good. Good fortune - good breaks - call it what you like, most of the time it isn't really luck at all. I got caught up in the emotion of the moment. This is not a good baseball team. We have a short list of good young players with a few more with pretty good potential just on the outside looking in. Note - I did not say that all of our players are bad. It is a bad team in need of something more that just a quick fix.

[a700hitter]

N

People "like me" have never said that the games in April don't count. When we say it is "just April" is that it's silly to make any season decisions based on less than a month's worth of play.

 

First off, the Mets offense in June was not worse than our May offense. Secondly, June was the Mets worse month. Thirdly, the Sox were not built around great pitching, they were built around great offense. We have talked many times about how this team was supposed to win a lot of 8-7 games. Well, we have failed to win too many 5-4, 4-3, 3-2 games.

 

Once again, I'm not saying that the pitching is fine or that they are not part of the problem.

I honestly don't know what point you are trying to make. Did the offense slump in May? Yes. I am not going to argue against the obvious. If they hadn't slumped, maybe they would be closer in the standings. I would agree with saying maybe to that. We can't say for sure because any conclusion would have to ignore the dynamics of the game. Okay. So what point are you making if I concede these points? That this is really a good team? Because it is not and the atrocious pitching would have doomed them anyway. So please tell me the point that you are trying to make so that I can agree or disagree and we can both move on. I am sure that you are quite certain that you are making an important point, but it is escaping me. Edited July 13, 2015 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

People "like me" have never said that the games in April don't count. When we say it is "just April" is that it's silly to make any season decisions based on less than a month's worth of play.

But it is not silly for you to make that decision here, basing your opinion on a 1 month offensive slump? Edited July 13, 2015 by a700hitter

[Elktonnick]

It obvioulsy hasn't worked out, but that does not mean the rationale going into the season was not solid.

 

Not only was it not solid, it was dumb. Pitching and defense win championships. The rest is all fluff. If the Red Sox defense sucked as badly as you contend then who is to blame? Obviously the GM who constructed it to support his supposedly ace ground ball throwing pitching staff is primarily culpable.

 

A great many of us had doubts about this "strategy" since there were questions about Bogaerts at short and Sandoval at third. There is no denying that Bogaerts has improved his defense considerably. Nevertheless, whether the pitching was bad or the defense worse or vice a versa, It all goes to prove what many have contended that Ben 's team was poorly constructed. His rationale was deeply flawed.

[jd98]

The problem with the FO strategy was assuming that the pitching would even be mediocre. Many of us thought it would be terrible. I predicted 13th in ERA, and that was my optimistic prediction. I'm no guru of predictions, just trying to show why the FO strategy may not have been so sound. Porcello is the only one I'm surprised by at all, and that's partly countered by having a mostly good Buchholz. It's probably even a bit fortunate that Masterson was as bad as he was. That forced ERod to be called up sooner, and he has been very good. I was dumbfounded at how bad the rotation looked given the payroll of the team.

[Elktonnick]

Excellent point about Masterson.