Is there a point at which the solution to the Betts program involves moving Pedroia?

[Dojji]

I love Pedroia. He's a great ballplayer and a heck of a second baseman. Buuuuuuuuuuut, his OPS for the last 5 years goes like: .860, .861, .797, .787, .721. A .721 OPS isn't awful for a second baseman, but there's a trend here over the last 4 years, a clear one.

 

He's a tough little guy, but still a little guy, the kind that get to this level by throwing their bodies all around with no regard for health and limb, and health and limb suffer accordingly. David Eckstein, a very physically similar player (while he didn't have Pedroia's power) was out of the league by age 35. Pedroia is going into his age 31 campaign and has been plagued with a neverending string of minor injuries of exactly the same kind that eventually caught up to Eckstein.

 

There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that Dustin Pedroia has at least 3 more years of life as a highly serviceable second sacker, if not an elite one. But with the outfield jamup and a very, very, very high ceiling young second baseman (among other positions Mookie Betts plays) pounding the door down in Spring Training, it's time to remove the taboos and talk about the elephant in the room. Is it possible that the dispassionate solution to the Betts problem is to move one of our franchise cornerstones to give the kid room to realize his potential at an infield position he's considered a plus defender at, where his bat makes him all the more valuable?

 

This question has two main parts. First, is it the right move for Betts, and I think it is. That bat at second would make him a moster and give us a huge franchise weapon. The second question is, is it right for the franchise, and when you combine Betts' cost controlled status, performance ceiling, and Pedroia's age, contract and injury history, the case starts to look compelling.

 

One of those two has the demonstrated potential to be an elite 5 tool player going forward, and let's be honest, it isn't Pedroia. He's still a beloved player who hustles hard and defends as well as anyone I've seen at second, but the bat is beginning to leave and the injuries are catching up, which for a little guy is a big concern.

 

With his constant plague of injuries, which I don't see Pedey's offense changing for the better anytime soon, expecting Pedroia to return to his former peak production just seems unreasonable. Betts isn't by all accounts any kind of liability at 2B and in fact is considered a high level defender, and also looks like a reasonable bet to outproduce Pedroia at the plate. And that bat... at a fielding-premium position....

 

Also there's a big issue based on the fact that it's not all that common for a player to move back to the infield after pulling multiple full seasons as an outfielder. it's done from time to time, but definitely not the norm. If Pedey plays out in 2-3 years or so we could be looking at a situation where Betts is our CF and we're playing woulda-coulda-shoulda with a hole in a big defensive position. It is a lot easier to find a serviceable league average CF than a league average 2B on the open market, that's just a fact. From a pure moneyball/risk management standpoint, or if this was a video game, using Betts and trading Pedey is objectively the optimum move.

 

That said, we're talking about a huge franchise-shaking move here, changing our identity fundamentally and there's going to be some very good reasons not to consider it. On the other hand -- we just finished in the basement last year, shaking up the identity may be exactly what we SHOULD be doing. So I'm torn.

 

Thoughts?

Edited March 28, 2015 by Dojji

[bostopz]

There is no elephant in the room. We won a a title with him 2 years ago as a number 3 hitter in which he was hurt the entire year. We'll see if he gets hurt again. If he has the elite year as you say he has in him - then he'll bounce back thus no reason to make a panic move and disrupt the entire team in which just 2 years ago we were best.

 

Secondly, Betts is tremendous player in the outfield. I think he can be tremendous for the rest of his career in the outfield. You don't?

 

Third we have a stud replacement in the minors coming up by the time Pedroia reaches the end of his contract. Why mess with jerking Betts around?

 

Fourth- so you put Betts at 2nd base, then who is your outfield? Are you suggesting you have more faith it Victorino? He's probably going to break down to boot.

[User Name]

Doesn't make any sense. If he's not hitting, his value is at an all-time low, so you can't move him because the return wouldn't be good enough. If he's hitting, try selling to the fanbase and team core that you got rid of the heart and soul of this team for no discernible reason.

 

I don't see the logic behind any of this.

[jacksonianmarch]

The guy has been battling a hand injury and a foot injury the last 3 years or so. He says he's healthy. He's on a long term deal that is currently untradeable. If you move him now, you're gonna get pennies on the dollar. When he's on, he's one of the best in the business. You gotta ride it out this year at least.

[Kimmi]

If Pedroia is healthy, as he claims he is, I would expect a rebound from him offensively. He is the last player I would bet against. Even without an offensive rebound, his elite defense makes him well worth his contract and a valuable player. Pedroia is the heart and soul of this team. He is worth more to the Sox than he would be to any other team. Selling low on him would be unwise, for several reasons.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no Betts problem. Victorino is the odd man out. The guy who is signed for one more year and has big trouble staying on the field.

[mvp 78]

I think Pedroia is vastly overrated, but we're stuck with that contract for now.

[User Name]

There is no Betts problem. Victorino is the odd man out. The guy who is signed for one more year and has big trouble staying on the field.

 

I like you. I like that "common sense" thing you like to throw out there on almost all of your posts.

[User Name]

For the record, the fundamental flaw in Dojji's thinking (and it's a very big one at that) is assuming that an above-average CF (which Betts can absolutely be) is not as valuable as an above-average 2B. That's every type of wrong possible.

[Dojji]

For the record, the fundamental flaw in Dojji's thinking (and it's a very big one at that) is assuming that an above-average CF (which Betts can absolutely be) is not as valuable as an above-average 2B. That's every type of wrong possible.

 

It's not wrong at all. 2B is third on the defensive spectrum behind C and SS and just ahead of CF. They're both critical positions, but it's harder to find a capable 2B. It's not easy to find a capable CF either, but it is *easier* and we do have a few good candidates right now.

 

The fact that Betts can be an incredibly valuable CF doesn't change the fact that he could also be an incredibly effective 2B, and depending on how Pedroia's health goes, we could wind up needing one.

 

I am very nervous about a small player that is showing signs that his body may be beginning to break down, who's struggled with injury for at least 4 years, and whose numbers over those years, at least offensively, have dropped pretty steadily, and who is on the wrong side of 30. If I wasn't concerned about these things I'd agree that there was nothing to discuss.

 

There's not a lot of players Pedroia's size who make it past age 35 or so. Chone figgins didn't. David Eckstein didn't. The life span for these littler infielders as starting players seems to be substantially shorter than average and if that holds true, Pedroia is 2-3 years away from the end of his. Well within the lifespan we'd expect to have Mookie on this team.

 

I am ignoring some key factors like chemistry and team leadership, and that, if anywhere, is where the flaw in my thinking is, but if this was a video game, the answer would be to unload Pedroia's contract, slot Betts in at 2nd, and work CF and RF out between JBJ, Castillo and Vic

Edited March 28, 2015 by Dojji

[Palodios]

There is a new obsession in baseball to trade good players every 3-4 years. When you have a former MVP with elite defense at 2B, who is mostly healthy, and still giving 4 WAR a year, why worry?

 

Unless they can get an ace for him -- and they won't -- I say absolutely not.

[Dojji]

Key word there being "former." I don't exactly expect Pedey to be an MVP this year. If I did, I would never have started this thread.

[User Name]

It's not wrong at all. 2B is third on the defensive spectrum behind C and SS and just ahead of CF. They're both critical positions, but it's harder to find a capable 2B. It's not easy to find a capable CF either, but it is *easier* and we do have a few good candidates right now.

 

The fact that Betts can be an incredibly valuable CF doesn't change the fact that he could also be an incredibly effective 2B, and depending on how Pedroia's health goes, we could wind up needing one.

 

I am very nervous about a small player that is showing signs that his body may be beginning to break down, who's struggled with injury for at least 4 years, and whose numbers over those years, at least offensively, have dropped pretty steadily, and who is on the wrong side of 30. If I wasn't concerned about these things I'd agree that there was nothing to discuss.

 

There's not a lot of players Pedroia's size who make it past age 35 or so. Chone figgins didn't. David Eckstein didn't. The life span for these littler infielders as starting players seems to be substantially shorter than average and if that holds true, Pedroia is 2-3 years away from the end of his. Well within the lifespan we'd expect to have Mookie on this team.

 

I am ignoring some key factors like chemistry and team leadership, and that, if anywhere, is where the flaw in my thinking is, but if this was a video game, the answer would be to unload Pedroia's contract, slot Betts in at 2nd, and work CF and RF out between JBJ, Castillo and Vic

 

How exactly is 2B a more important defensive position than CF? CF is the captain of the OF, and the player expected to cover the most ground. A 2b is usually a guy who didn't have the range to play SS. You're making this stuff up on the fly here.

 

Also, Palodios is absolutely right. If healthy, Pedroia is a near-lock to be a way above average 2B. He doesn't need to be MVP, but a healthy Pedroia in 2B and Betts in CF is the best configuration the Sox can put out there. You're just spitballin' here.

[cp176]

I also would like to see Betts at second base at some point in his career but only when Pedroia gives it up or can't get it done. Right now he can. I think that Betts will become an above average outfielder as he continues to learn the position. If Bradley had become the player we all thought he would become, I might look at this differently. With Victorino's health history, I think as many others do that you keep Betts right where he is. I also do not think that Pedroais's trade value is particularly high. Everybody is trying to get younger.

[Spudboy]

You don't fix what ain't broke.

 

I say no.

[sk7326]

Pedroia is still a GREAT defensive player - so much so that he is still a very good starter despite the bat sagging. One of the funny things about life is when writers do the right thing for the wrong reasons. In 2008, they voted Pedroia MVP for scrappy mcscraperson reasons most likely, because his counting stats weren't amazing. But when you dig deeper, add positional value and defense - and Pedroia had a truly elite season, but perhaps not in a way that the average BBWAA member understood.

 

Pedroia doesn't have to be the 2008 model to be well above average. Moving Betts to 2B could be a future step, but not to solve the outfield problem. He is the best CF choice by far right now and that should stay.

[sk7326]

Key word there being "former." I don't exactly expect Pedey to be an MVP this year. If I did, I would never have started this thread.

 

Dude, Pedroia is STILL A 4-win player despite his hand problems. He doesn't have to hit any better than this as long as he still picks it with the same quality.

[Spudboy]

I have no doubt that Pedroia will exceed his last two years of production at the plate IF HEALTHY. If his hand allow him to resume his Vlad Guererro swating why not?

 

BUT, if he does go down again with injury this team still has quality depth at second.

 

I am more concerned about Bogaerts. If he does not hit what then? If he gets hurt, what then? I love me some Holt but he is not a full time SS. Will Hanley be playing SS again?

 

The Sox say no but things can change. Especially with so much redundancy in the outfield.

[bostopz]

It's not wrong at all. 2B is third on the defensive spectrum behind C and SS and just ahead of CF. They're both critical positions, but it's harder to find a capable 2B. It's not easy to find a capable CF either, but it is *easier* and we do have a few good candidates right now.

 

The fact that Betts can be an incredibly valuable CF doesn't change the fact that he could also be an incredibly effective 2B, and depending on how Pedroia's health goes, we could wind up needing one.

 

I am very nervous about a small player that is showing signs that his body may be beginning to break down, who's struggled with injury for at least 4 years, and whose numbers over those years, at least offensively, have dropped pretty steadily, and who is on the wrong side of 30. If I wasn't concerned about these things I'd agree that there was nothing to discuss.

 

There's not a lot of players Pedroia's size who make it past age 35 or so. Chone figgins didn't. David Eckstein didn't. The life span for these littler infielders as starting players seems to be substantially shorter than average and if that holds true, Pedroia is 2-3 years away from the end of his. Well within the lifespan we'd expect to have Mookie on this team.

 

I am ignoring some key factors like chemistry and team leadership, and that, if anywhere, is where the flaw in my thinking is, but if this was a video game, the answer would be to unload Pedroia's contract, slot Betts in at 2nd, and work CF and RF out between JBJ, Castillo and Vic

 

1--- Yes you are wrong. You're way off with your comments of "elephant in the room" "the Betts problem" etc.

 

2--- You speak of .Pedroia's injuries yet you want to move Betts to 2b thereby allow more games for Victorino? Are you serious?

 

3--- Regarding Pedroia's size and age-- so weed out Pedroia yet you want to bench him in favor of Victorino? A guy that has basically missed two of the last three years and unlike Pedroia's thumbs- Victroino's back injury along with age is much much much worse. Yet you favor Shane? You're nervous about Pedroia's body more than Victorino????

 

 

4--- If we are talking this year -- why are you mentioning Pedroia at 35? What does that have to do with anything? You mean you are looking for the future? So then what about Moncada being the 2nd baseman? Now that you have Betts what's your future plan for Moncada? Right now from the accounts I hear Moncada is believed to be most comfortable at 2b. Have you heard different? So this early you want to to throw in the towel with Moncada potentialy being most comfortable at 2b and move him to another position? Because if you put Betts at 2nd -- you're locking up that position for many years aren't you?

 

5--- No offense but really there is nothing here to discuss other than you're being nervous. Which is fine. We all get nervous about different things. IMO you're nervousness on this issue ranks below the equator.

 

6--- So you are willing to bench Pedroia in place of Jackie Bradley? Really?

 

There is no elephant in the room when it comes to Pedroia at least for the near-term.

Edited March 28, 2015 by bostopz
typos

[iortiz]

Seems like he is 100% healthy entering into this new season, I want to see him this year first, in order to make an opinion regarding him for 2016.

 

I think he is going to be fine this year.

[User Name]

Seems like he is 100% healthy entering into this new season, I want to see him this year first, in order to make an opinion regarding him for 2016.

 

I think he is going to be fine this year.

 

One of the weird instances where we agree, meaning it's one of the weird instances where you're actually right.

[Kimmi]

Absolutely not on trading Pedroia. But it is nice to know that if Pedroia suffers a significant injury, we have a player who can replace him at 2B and the Sox probably wouldn't miss a beat. I've mentioned before that our depth is amongst the best in baseball, and could end being the difference between making the postseason or not.

[mvp 78]

There is a new obsession in baseball to trade good players every 3-4 years. When you have a former MVP with elite defense at 2B, who is mostly healthy, and still giving 4 WAR a year, why worry?

 

Unless they can get an ace for him -- and they won't -- I say absolutely not.

 

Pedroia is far from "mostly healthy."

[seabeachfred]

Dojji likes to trawl and throw out different kind of scenarios....this one smells like a sewer at high tide. Pedroia is the heart and soul of our team and we don't know how these newcomers are going to mend in the clubhouse, whether they are positive influences of negative ones a la Crawford and Gonzales.....remember? If Dojii wants to do some fishing he might concern himself with Bogaerts and whether he is going to perform this season and whether Sandoval's four year offensive decline will continue into a fifth season, not to mention whether Hanley can stay in one piece and show a positive attitude this time around. We have our share of problems, that's certain but Pedroia is not one of them. Doj---look elsewhere.

[Ogden]

I don't give much credence to a player's comments about his own health. But all the local and national commentators I've heard this spring say Pedroia looks and is said to be healthy. Ergo, he's pretty freakin valuable today even if his contract doesn't end for 7 long seasons.

[Spudboy]

Dojji likes to trawl and throw out different kind of scenarios....this one smells like a sewer at high tide. Pedroia is the heart and soul of our team and we don't know how these newcomers are going to mend in the clubhouse, whether they are positive influences of negative ones a la Crawford and Gonzales.....remember? If Dojii wants to do some fishing he might concern himself with Bogaerts and whether he is going to perform this season and whether Sandoval's four year offensive decline will continue into a fifth season, not to mention whether Hanley can stay in one piece and show a positive attitude this time around. We have our share of problems, that's certain but Pedroia is not one of them. Doj---look elsewhere.

 

Still, Dojji has some good ideas and observations. Right or wrong makes no difference to me because he thinks and makes us look at things from an other perspective which I believe is a good thing.

[Brown28]

Pedroia isn't going anywhere. The Sox don't trade guys like that, even if they slump hard in their 30's and everyone think's they're done (See:Papi,Big). Also, and this may shock the hell out of people...we dont know if Betts is good yet (See: Bradley Jr, Jackie). And even if he is, he's not blocked by Pedroia. They play different positions. If anyone's a threat to Pedroia is Moncada and word is he's good enough to play pretty much any position.

[mvp 78]

Betts has spent more time at 2b than OF. Unlike JBJ, he's actually had sustained success in MLB.

[sk7326]

With Petey the question with his decline the last two years is how much decline is left. Honestly though, as long as he can still make a lot of contact and field his position at approximately his current level, there is no real near term reason to look to replace him. Betts is an entirely qualified 2B, but if he is established at CF that might be the more valuable spot. That said, could I see a future in three years of Betts at 2B and Margot in CF? Why not? But it's not a "current problem" or "elephant in the room".

[Kimmi]

With Petey the question with his decline the last two years is how much decline is left. Honestly though, as long as he can still make a lot of contact and field his position at approximately his current level, there is no real near term reason to look to replace him. Betts is an entirely qualified 2B, but if he is established at CF that might be the more valuable spot. That said, could I see a future in three years of Betts at 2B and Margot in CF? Why not? But it's not a "current problem" or "elephant in the room".

 

 

In 2014, the MLB average slash line at 2nd base was .250/.307/.364/.671 . While Dustin has shown some decline from where he once was, he still hit .278/.337/.376/.713 during a season in which he was not completely healthy. Throw in his elite defense, and he is far from being a liability or a problem to this team. Pedroia is among the least of the team's concerns.