Moncada is coming

[sk7326]

Don't care how much potential he has, he's done nothing. Hasn't hit a pitch of MLB ball, and we're giving him $30 mil?? I hate the economics of the game.

 

It's about what the top pick in the draft would get if the players and owners did not agree to keep their bonuses down. If Moncada delivers 3 decent seasons before arbitration, it's paid for itself.

[mvp 78]

If Pedroia has another 2 years like last year and Moncada projects as a 2nd baseman, I'd send the dirt dog on his way in 2017 and say thanks for the memories. But if Pedroia regains his form, as Emily Litella once said .....

 

http://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/assets/4251599/Emily-Litella-Never-mind.jpg

I love this plan.

[cp176]

It's about what the top pick in the draft would get if the players and owners did not agree to keep their bonuses down. If Moncada delivers 3 decent seasons before arbitration, it's paid for itself.

 

It's a gamble. As far as where he projects to eventually play, that depends on what you are hearing and reading. Third - second - first - outfield - not even to mention ss. I wonder what the original - George S. would be feeling right about now?

 

Ultimately I think that they "might " make a move for pitching (although that doesn't appear to be the major point of emphasis.) I don't see them making a move for any aging pitcher whose best years are behind them. If a young strong arm becomes available for cash, they will likely outspend everyone to get him. As far as top young talent being moved - At some point in time - who knows when - Swihart or Vasquez gets moved. I would bet on it being Swihart. It doesn't look like he will be dh ing or moving to first now like some have suggested. He won't become the next potential all-star backup catcher. I don't think that anybody is in a hurry to see this happen. If a move is made for pitching, I think that it will be for the one the Sox really want. Might not happen this year.

[sk7326]

It's a gamble. As far as where he projects to eventually play, that depends on what you are hearing and reading. Third - second - first - outfield - not even to mention ss. I wonder what the original - George S. would be feeling right about now?

 

Ultimately I think that they "might " make a move for pitching (although that doesn't appear to be the major point of emphasis.) I don't see them making a move for any aging pitcher whose best years are behind them. If a young strong arm becomes available for cash, they will likely outspend everyone to get him. As far as top young talent being moved - At some point in time - who knows when - Swihart or Vasquez gets moved. I would bet on it being Swihart. It doesn't look like he will be dh ing or moving to first now like some have suggested. He won't become the next potential all-star backup catcher. I don't think that anybody is in a hurry to see this happen. If a move is made for pitching, I think that it will be for the one the Sox really want. Might not happen this year.

 

I take Cherington at his word that the Red Sox are done shopping for now - makes more sense for the trade market to open up instead of being wed to Hamels (or anybody else) right now. Both Castillo and Betts have options, so the team can either A) start with one of them in AAA or only bring 11 pitchers up north if none of the outfielders get moved in the spring. (Obviously Bradley has options too, but I am assuming he is not a part of the big league picture for now)

 

The willingness to move Swihart will be dependent on the usual things - how desperate they are as shoppers, how well Swihart plays and how well Vasquez plays. I mean, if Swihart crushes AAA and Vasquez delivers a .600 OPS sort of season, the front office will have to make a real decision about where the future is. That might involve taking a plunge with a guy you have not seen in the bigs - that is why Cherington gets the big bucks, to make such a leap.

 

Very clearly, Cecchini, Bradley, Merrero, Coyle and the middle class pitchers are the first batch of trade fodder the Red Sox will offer. Very clearly a team with an asset like the Phils will be looking at the Sox Top 100 entrants. To me, it is clear there is a position player surplus - enough of one that solving that represents an optimal use of resources.

[BSN07]

I hate clowns, so no. Possibly Bluntnaut after I realized James Blunt is God-tier at Twitter.

James Blunt is phenomenal on twitter

Bogaerts, age 19, between A+ and AA:

127 g, .307/.373/.523/.896; 20 HR, 81 RBI

 

Bogaerts, age 20, between AA and AAA:

116 g, .297/.388/.477/.865; 15 HR, 67 RBI

 

Those are excellent numbers for a player a few years ahead of his competition. I think it would be unrealistic to expect Moncada to do much better than that, wouldn't it? Those numbers and age made Bogaerts a top 10 prospect.

 

Keep them both, maybe use other chips to get a Hamels. They have an enviable young offensive core on their hands. Yes, they need a top pitcher but not at the expense of a core cost controlled offensive player. All of these guys (Betts, Moncada, Swihart, Bogaerts, even Castillo) appear to be either defensively viable or plus, with decent to excellent speed.

 

There are good FA pitchers available next year who won't cost a guy like Swihart. Patience is the best play here.

 

Exactly. This team has a very young high potential core. Xander, Betts, Swihart, and Moncada could be the 4 horsemen of the Red Sox Apocalypse on the league for the next 10 years haha.

[User Name]

I still don't understand the fascination with Hamels.

 

He has pretty good numbers in a HR-inflating stadium, but he's exiting his prime, has had elbow issues in the past, plays in a weak offensive division and has a terrible track record against the AL. Not to mention the Sox would have to give up prospects AND pony up a ton of money to get him. No thanks.

[SoxnCycles]

I still don't understand the fascination with Hamels.

 

He has pretty good numbers in a HR-inflating stadium, but he's exiting his prime, has had elbow issues in the past, plays in a weak offensive division and has a terrible track record against the AL. Not to mention the Sox would have to give up prospects AND pony up a ton of money to get him. No thanks.

 

I don't either.

I'd much rather start the year off with the rotation as is and see where the Sox are in June/ July.

A lot of the questions hovering over the rotation will be answered, one way or another by then.

I don't see another team in this division running away with it, so the Sox should be in a position to to help themselves in the last two months.

 

It'll cost too much in players and money to get Hamels.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox have focused on building a young core. Cole Hummus doesn't make much sense if they can't get him without trading one of those core players. If the Phillies want some combination of Cecchini, Barnes, Margo, Devers, the Red Sox may make the trade, but it seems like Swihart/Owens/Eduardo are not on the table.

[BSN07]

I still don't understand the fascination with Hamels.

 

He has pretty good numbers in a HR-inflating stadium, but he's exiting his prime, has had elbow issues in the past, plays in a weak offensive division and has a terrible track record against the AL. Not to mention the Sox would have to give up prospects AND pony up a ton of money to get him. No thanks.

 

^ This.

 

There are scenarios I would deem as palatable, but they would be pretty unlikely.

[iortiz]

Bogaerts, age 19, between A+ and AA:

127 g, .307/.373/.523/.896; 20 HR, 81 RBI

 

Bogaerts, age 20, between AA and AAA:

116 g, .297/.388/.477/.865; 15 HR, 67 RBI

 

Those are excellent numbers for a player a few years ahead of his competition. I think it would be unrealistic to expect Moncada to do much better than that, wouldn't it? Those numbers and age made Bogaerts a top 10 prospect.

 

Keep them both, maybe use other chips to get a Hamels. They have an enviable young offensive core on their hands. Yes, they need a top pitcher but not at the expense of a core cost controlled offensive player. All of these guys (Betts, Moncada, Swihart, Bogaerts, even Castillo) appear to be either defensively viable or plus, with decent to excellent speed.

 

There are good FA pitchers available next year who won't cost a guy like Swihart. Patience is the best play here.

Do not take me wrong, I want to keep both. In fact I'm against trading top prospects mostly when you are not the A's, KCR or TBR which do not have money. Since Lackey, they haven't paid big dollar tickets for a No.1. and a lot of FA have come and go with several profiles and $ attached to them. This year is a clear example. Maybe they are a bit hesitant because they do not want to s*** the bed again like Theo did with D-K or Lackey. Not sure who are the "right" profile FA to sign if so, for them. The "There are good FA pitchers available next year who won't cost top prospects" argument have been beaten a lot since I've been here and have never happened. As I said, If this experiment becomes a nightmare, the good thing will be that they finally will likely grab a couple of solid pitchers while balancing the roster as I've been suggesting.

Edited February 24, 2015 by iortiz

[mvp 78]

Iortiz would definitely eat Cole Hummus.

[mvp 78]

Pedro salsa > Papi Hot Sauce > Pedroia Salsa > Pitino Tomato Sauce

[User Name]

Do not take me wrong, I want to keep both. In fact I'm against trading top prospects mostly when you are not the A's, KCR or TBR which do not have money. Since Lackey, they haven't paid big dollar tickets for a No.1. and a lot of FA have come and go with several profiles and $ attached to them. This year is a clear example. Maybe they are a bit hesitant because they do not want to s*** the bed again like Theo did with D-K or Lackey. Not sure who are the "right" profile FA to sign if so, for them. The "There are good FA pitchers available next year who won't cost top prospects" argument have been beaten a lot since I've been here and have never happened. As I said, If this experiment becomes a nightmare, the good thing will be that they finally will likely grab a couple of solid pitchers while balancing the roster as I've been suggesting.

 

The roster is balanced. An imbalanced roster would mean below-average pitching, which isn't the problem. What they lack is an ace, but that doesn't mean the pitching sucks. Also, as usual, you stay fixated on "high-profile and $ free agents". That's missing the point by a mile. It's not price, it's quality.

[Palodios]

The "There are good FA pitchers available next year who won't cost top prospects" argument have been beaten a lot since I've been here and have never happened.

 

It is starting to seem unlikely that the Red Sox go after Price/Cueto/Zimmerman next year. I think it is highly probable that the Red Sox re-sign Porcello because of his age and history in New England.

 

If the Red Sox go for an ace, he's going to be Cuban, Japanese, or a cost controlled 25 year old that they trade a blue chip for.

[BSN07]

It is starting to seem unlikely that the Red Sox go after Price/Cueto/Zimmerman next year. I think it is highly probable that the Red Sox re-sign Porcello because of his age and history in New England.

 

If the Red Sox go for an ace, he's going to be Cuban, Japanese, or a cost controlled 25 year old that they trade a blue chip for.

 

I'm feeling the same way. I'm not sure they will ever throw 150M+ at a SP again and that's what the market is for an "ace".

 

I'm also really looking forward to seeing how Porcello does this year.

[mvp 78]

They'll be out on international bidding in 2016 and 2017 due to restrictions from the Castillo and Moncada signings.

[iortiz]

To me, it is very unbalanced... but time will tell, though.

 

For the record... I'm not stay fixated on "high-profile and $ free agents" at all.

 

As I said Lester at 125 and Shields at 75 would not hurt anybody here.

[Palodios]

They'll be out on international bidding in 2016 and 2017 due to restrictions from the Castillo and Moncada signings.

 

That's only for the draft. If a 25 year old Cuban, or Kenta Maeda becomes available, I see the Red Sox pursuing them heavily.

[iortiz]

It is starting to seem unlikely that the Red Sox go after Price/Cueto/Zimmerman next year. I think it is highly probable that the Red Sox re-sign Porcello because of his age and history in New England.

 

If the Red Sox go for an ace, he's going to be Cuban, Japanese, or a cost controlled 25 year old that they trade a blue chip for.

 

They are stuck at INT signings, aren't they?

 

Hopefully I'm death wrong and this staff keep us competitive, but if they s*** the bed, maybe and just maybe the strategy will change regarding pitching.

[mvp 78]

That's only for the draft. If a 25 year old Cuban, or Kenta Maeda becomes available, I see the Red Sox pursuing them heavily.

 

Per Alex Speier:

 

"Meanwhile, the Sox had already blown past their international spending guidelines (approximately $1.9 million) for the 2014-15 international amateur signing period, something the team did by signing a pair of highly regarded starting pitchers (Anderson Espinoza and Chris Acosta) to a combined $3.3 million in bonuses.

 

For that reason, the team will not be able to sign any international amateurs under the age of 23 to bonuses in excess of $300,000 in either the 2015-16 or 2016-17 international amateur signing periods. In some ways, then, the Sox seized an opportunity to crash through a closing window on their international amateur free agent possibilities."

[mvp 78]

Wasn't sure about age restrictions but this doesn't relate to the draft. Does it?

[Palodios]

They are stuck at INT signings, aren't they?

 

Hopefully I'm death wrong and this staff keep us competitive, but if they s*** the bed, maybe and just maybe the strategy will change regarding pitching.

 

Not necessarily just INT signings -- the emphasis is on building a roster of 20 year olds instead of 30 year olds. There seems to be a very strong belief in this organizations that old pitchers can't be counted on for career average performances. The big contracts for pitchers almost never work out.

[Palodios]

Per Alex Speier:

 

"Meanwhile, the Sox had already blown past their international spending guidelines (approximately $1.9 million) for the 2014-15 international amateur signing period, something the team did by signing a pair of highly regarded starting pitchers (Anderson Espinoza and Chris Acosta) to a combined $3.3 million in bonuses.

 

For that reason, the team will not be able to sign any international amateurs under the age of 23 to bonuses in excess of $300,000 in either the 2015-16 or 2016-17 international amateur signing periods. In some ways, then, the Sox seized an opportunity to crash through a closing window on their international amateur free agent possibilities."

 

23 is the cut off. Any international player above that age can be signed to big money by any team without restrictions. Also, Japanese players still abide by the posting system.

[Bellhorn04]

Per Alex Speier:

 

"Meanwhile, the Sox had already blown past their international spending guidelines (approximately $1.9 million) for the 2014-15 international amateur signing period, something the team did by signing a pair of highly regarded starting pitchers (Anderson Espinoza and Chris Acosta) to a combined $3.3 million in bonuses."

 

Are the guidelines such that any team that signs a guy like Moncada for $30 million will get whacked with a penalty like the Sox did?

[Palodios]

Are the guidelines such that any team that signs a guy like Moncada for $30 million will get whacked with a penalty like the Sox did?

 

Each team was allotted with a bonus pool, and allowed to sign whoever they wanted with that money. The highest bonus pool was 5 million, which went to the Astros. So if they only signed Moncada, they would have been penalized for 30 million - the 5 million allotment, and hit with a tax of 25 million.

 

In retrospect, it tells us exactly what kind of super stud prospect Moncada is, if he is worth that much. The max bonus was 5 million, and he cost 31.5 million to sign. The second highest bonus was 8.27 million. I sure hope he is the real deal.

[User Name]

To me, it is very unbalanced... but time will tell, though.

 

For the record... I'm not stay fixated on "high-profile and $ free agents" at all.

 

As I said Lester at 125 and Shields at 75 would not hurt anybody here.

 

You are, again, missing the point. They're just flat-out refusing to sign older pitchers. As their investment in Moncada (and the rest of the offseason) clearly shows, there is an M.O here, and that is to go younger. Your idea that it's because of the money flies in the face of logic.

[sk7326]

Each team was allotted with a bonus pool, and allowed to sign whoever they wanted with that money. The highest bonus pool was 5 million, which went to the Astros. So if they only signed Moncada, they would have been penalized for 30 million - the 5 million allotment, and hit with a tax of 25 million.

 

In retrospect, it tells us exactly what kind of super stud prospect Moncada is, if he is worth that much. The max bonus was 5 million, and he cost 31.5 million to sign. The second highest bonus was 8.27 million. I sure hope he is the real deal.

 

Shows how stupid the bonus pool is - at least one that is not truly mandatory. Talent costs money - full stop.

[a700hitter]

Per Alex Speier:

 

"Meanwhile, the Sox had already blown past their international spending guidelines (approximately $1.9 million) for the 2014-15 international amateur signing period, something the team did by signing a pair of highly regarded starting pitchers (Anderson Espinoza and Chris Acosta) to a combined $3.3 million in bonuses.

 

For that reason, the team will not be able to sign any international amateurs under the age of 23 to bonuses in excess of $300,000 in either the 2015-16 or 2016-17 international amateur signing periods. In some ways, then, the Sox seized an opportunity to crash through a closing window on their international amateur free agent possibilities."

Speier makes it sound like the Red Sox made the purchase at some sort of "going out of business" sale.

[seabeachfred]

Let's assume Moncada is the real deal.......and I think he is going to be more than just the real deal. He might turn out to be the best of the Cubanos baseball has signed recently. He won't be 20 until May 27, can play any infield position, most likely could become an outfielder, is a switch hitter and can run and has a very strong arm. So what is the problem? None right now but in two years there could be one......Hanley Ramirez, who I am expecting big things from this year. I am also predicting that HR will do what he did in the Boston farm system, in Miami and in LA and that's become virus in his third season....if not late in his second. A leopard doesn't change his spot and for that the Red Sox must keep Moncada away from Hanley with either Panda and or Castillo (assuming he has the good attitude we've heard about) as protection. We saw the chicken and beer in 2011 and we don't want to have a rice and red beans redux two or three years from now. Attitude is extremely important and Moncada must develop and maintain all the positive entities he's so far developed. We cannot afford to let someone put him astray and I'm afraid Hanley could be one to try that. Remember Ortiz will be gone within two seasons.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

I really like this signing. I have high hopes that this kid will be a star for the Red Sox in the years to come. I know all prospects are a crap shoot, but I feel this kid has been put through the paces probably more than the average prospect has. I look forward to seeing the day he gets promoted.