2014 Offseason Thread

[Spudboy]

I read that the Jays had already decided to cover the Saunders loss with an internal candidate.

 

Do the Angels have any outfield depth?

 

And if the Sox were to make a deal with one of these two teams, who would be coming back to Boston in return?

[a700hitter]

I read that the Jays had already decided to cover the Saunders loss with an internal candidate.

 

Do the Angels have any outfield depth?

 

And if the Sox were to make a deal with one of these two teams, who would be coming back to Boston in return?

didn't the jays sign Viciedo?

[Spudboy]

didn't the jays sign Viciedo?

 

I though he was likely headed to Oakland. Hmmm. I don't know.

[seabeachfred]

Well Fred, not that I disagree with this post, but as far as I know, you still think HRs and RBIs are the be-all end-all of offensive stats. That is just wrong on so many levels.

 

Well we will have to just agree to disagree on that one Kimmi. I think RBI's are a very telling baseball statistic. You can talk about OPB, BAPIP, walk ration and all that stuff but someone has to bring those runners home and I have insisted and will continue to insist that some players rise to the occasion under those circumstances and some do not . That is one reason I am very leery of Xander Bogaerts. As good a prospect as he's supposed to be he was absolutely horrible when coming to the plate with RISP. He hit a miserable 153 in such situations, and I have had the perspective of over 30 years in coaching and believe me, I saw that some players I had on my teams were literally shaking in their boots coming up with runners on, while there were those blue chippers who reveled to be up at the plate with the game on the line. You talk to 100 baseball coaches from high school on up and I will be you will get 90 of them to tell you the same thing I am.

[seabeachfred]

It's just really easy to play baseball from one's comfortable couch. Do you know how goddamn hard it is to hit? Once a guy finds an approach that works, and has taken thousand of reps refining it, it's almost impossible to change it. Specially if it works, and it works for Napoli, who is a very productive hitter.

 

Everyone's a couch expert.

 

90% of that is very true User, but a little adjustment from time to time is certainly possible for a seasoned hitter. As for those "couch experts" you're talking about I have gone round after round with some of them (not use in this case) about their dissing of that RBI statistic. The fact is anyone with extensive coaching experience knows full well that there are players who simply cannot function as well with runners on base as they are when batting with no one on. As I told Kimmi, you ask 100 coaches with extensive coaching experiences and 90 of them will tell you the same thing. OTOH, there are those players who seem to have the knack and skill to come through when the chips are down and on this board we don't need any further proof that David Ortiz himself. Some can do it with RISP and some, like Xander Bogaerts last season, cannot. That holds true for dozens and dozens of players and we can talk BAPIP, OBP and walks vs strikeouts until the cows come home but someone has to bring those runners home and that is the rub. Some can do it better than others, some can do it a lot better than others and some have trouble up the gazoo doing it at all.

[cp176]

Well we will have to just agree to disagree on that one Kimmi. I think RBI's are a very telling baseball statistic. You can talk about OPB, BAPIP, walk ration and all that stuff but someone has to bring those runners home and I have insisted and will continue to insist that some players rise to the occasion under those circumstances and some do not . That is one reason I am very leery of Xander Bogaerts. As good a prospect as he's supposed to be he was absolutely horrible when coming to the plate with RISP. He hit a miserable 153 in such situations, and I have had the perspective of over 30 years in coaching and believe me, I saw that some players I had on my teams were literally shaking in their boots coming up with runners on, while there were those blue chippers who reveled to be up at the plate with the game on the line. You talk to 100 baseball coaches from high school on up and I will be you will get 90 of them to tell you the same thing I am.

 

You are absolutely right here. It is the same in every game. A player can look very, very good statistically and not be able to do the job in the clutch. Serves as great separator - the good from the very good and the very good from the truly great ones.

[SoxnCycles]

I would imagine that the kids who shake in the cleats during a big at bat never sniff the minor leagues, never mind the majors.

I'm not sure how this applies to someone like Napoli.

Or Bogaerts, for that matter.

[Kimmi]

Yes, I think stats are interesting too, but in those instances where they can't establish or prove a case, we need to resort to our eyes and studied observation.

 

I don't mind when stats are used to refute assertions or support an argument. I hope that you don't mind if I pick apart those stats in the context of a discussion if I think the recited stats are inadequate to prove or disprove a certain position.

 

I do know something for certain. After this discussion, I am very interested to watch Napoli in 2015 in those situations. I am curious to see if he chokes up a bit or shortens his stroke or looks to take the ball the other way. My interest in this regard has been piqued, and isn't that what these forums are intended to do. Too many people (not referring to you) must have their arguments prevail and they demand capitulation from those holding differing views. Now, I am one stubborn SOB so I am not in the habit of capitulating (and especially not with my strongly held beliefs), but I like to read other viewpoints and they change my opinion more often than I let on.

 

I don't mind at all if you want to pick apart stats. As I said before, I enjoy the discussion/debate. That's why I'm here.

 

I actually very much liked this post, because I was thinking the same thing about Napoli's at bats in those situations. I will be paying close attention to what he does. Just keep in mind that in most cases, the team is probably not playing for one run, so Naps should be swinging for the fences. But I will be using the eye test right along with you. Ha!

[Kimmi]

90% of that is very true User, but a little adjustment from time to time is certainly possible for a seasoned hitter. As for those "couch experts" you're talking about I have gone round after round with some of them (not use in this case) about their dissing of that RBI statistic. The fact is anyone with extensive coaching experience knows full well that there are players who simply cannot function as well with runners on base as they are when batting with no one on. As I told Kimmi, you ask 100 coaches with extensive coaching experiences and 90 of them will tell you the same thing. OTOH, there are those players who seem to have the knack and skill to come through when the chips are down and on this board we don't need any further proof that David Ortiz himself. Some can do it with RISP and some, like Xander Bogaerts last season, cannot. That holds true for dozens and dozens of players and we can talk BAPIP, OBP and walks vs strikeouts until the cows come home but someone has to bring those runners home and that is the rub. Some can do it better than others, some can do it a lot better than others and some have trouble up the gazoo doing it at all.

 

 

Fred, Fred, Fred. Shaking my head. Let me first say that the RBI stat has it's place. It is just not a very useful stat to assess a player without have some context to go with it. I think a very good example of that was the year that your favorite player Lugo had more RBIs than Pedroia.

 

More importantly, by the time players reach the MLB level, they are more or less all "clutch". In other words, the ones that are shaking in their cleats in pressure situations are either not going to make it to the majors or they are not going to last very long. A player cannot raise him game to an otherworldly level in a clutch situation. The good players simply maintain their composure and do what they normally do. Hitters who seem clutch are just typically good hitters.

 

Papi is not a great clutch hitter. He is a great hitter, period.

[Kimmi]

You are absolutely right here. It is the same in every game. A player can look very, very good statistically and not be able to do the job in the clutch. Serves as great separator - the good from the very good and the very good from the truly great ones.

 

 

Unfortunately, Fred is not right.

[User Name]

You are absolutely right here. It is the same in every game. A player can look very, very good statistically and not be able to do the job in the clutch. Serves as great separator - the good from the very good and the very good from the truly great ones.

 

This is nonsense, because a player can't look "very, very good statistically" if he consistently fails in pressure situations. There are statistical measurements for that too, and are part of a player's overall profile. This is why I said in our previous conversation that you really don't know what you're talking about here. It's not an insult, it's just the feeling I get with all of the misconceptions you have about how stats work, what they measure, and why.

[cp176]

This is nonsense, because a player can't look "very, very good statistically" if he consistently fails in pressure situations. There are statistical measurements for that too, and are part of a player's overall profile. This is why I said in our previous conversation that you really don't know what you're talking about here. It's not an insult, it's just the feeling I get with all of the misconceptions you have about how stats work, what they measure, and why.

 

I would guess that it might depend upon the statistics you choose to look at.

[cp176]

Unfortunately, Fred is not right.

 

 

It certainly isn't unfortunate. You don't think that he is right and that's ok.

[seabeachfred]

Unfortunately, Fred is not right.

 

Sorry but don't go Kimmi on me Kimmi. What I said not only goes for high school players but college and minor league players as well. Scouts will also tell you that some players handle pressure much better than others just as coaches will tell you that. With all due respect Kimmi, you never played baseball in competitive leagues and you sure as hell have never coached the game either. Those of us who have seen with our own eyes players who revel in key situations and those who would rather be anywhere but the plate in these pressure situations and you have them in the Big Leagues as well.

[Ogden]

Some other Napoli stats, which I've been withholding from the general public. LOL

 

With a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, Napoli scored the runner 48% of the time for his career. The league average is 51%. However, Napoli's rate in 2014 was 64%.

 

With a runner on 2nd and 0 outs, Napoli advanced the runner 51% of the time for his career. The league average is 56%. Napoli's 2014 rate was only 17%.

 

Does this indicate anything about whether Napoli changes his approach or not? Not really, but interesting info at any rate.

 

 

Baseball Reference is a wonderful thing. So much ammunition for such a cheap price.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Silverman of Herald, Betts and Castillo will be competing for Opening Day CF.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/03/mookie_betts_rusney_castillo_in_middle_of_true_outfield

[Palodios]

According to Silverman of Herald, Betts and Castillo will be competing for Opening Day CF.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/03/mookie_betts_rusney_castillo_in_middle_of_true_outfield

 

Strange that only those two are fighting for spots. Maybe Hanley gets a guarantee, but the other 6 outfielders should all be fighting for their opportunities.

[sk7326]

Strange that only those two are fighting for spots. Maybe Hanley gets a guarantee, but the other 6 outfielders should all be fighting for their opportunities.

 

In theory it makes sense - but contractually this is the only real scenario that makes sense. This strongly implies that they are carrying 12 pitchers up north. Until an injury or trade comes up, one of these two have to be sent down.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hanley has to get a guarantee. You don't drop $88 mil on your new LFer and put him on the bench. Also, your paying Castillo over $10 mil this year as well. He isn't gonna go to the minors on that coin. My guess is that Castillo and Hanley are opening day starters. If Vic is healthy, he's gonna start too. Betts will be sent down as will JbJ. JBJ doesn't belong. But sending down Betts might allow for another year of control

[Palodios]

Hanley has to get a guarantee. You don't drop $88 mil on your new LFer and put him on the bench. Also, your paying Castillo over $10 mil this year as well. He isn't gonna go to the minors on that coin. My guess is that Castillo and Hanley are opening day starters. If Vic is healthy, he's gonna start too. Betts will be sent down as will JbJ. JBJ doesn't belong. But sending down Betts might allow for another year of control

 

Hanley seems like a given. However, the Red Sox need to pick 3 of these guys: Castillo, Betts, Nava, Craig, Victorino, Bradley, possibly even Brentz. I am not convinced that Victorino and Craig are two of the best from that group.

[a700hitter]

Hanley seems like a given. However, the Red Sox need to pick 3 of these guys: Castillo, Betts, Nava, Craig, Victorino, Bradley, possibly even Brentz. I am not convinced that Victorino and Craig are two of the best from that group.

Out of that group, Nava will benefit from being a good lefty swinger. Bradley is out. Brentz isn't ready and the rest are right handed. That will give Nava an edge.

[Spudboy]

Does anyone question that Betts is ready for MLB? I don't.

 

That kid can hit. I think that the Sox need to find a way to have him in the lineup.

 

Regardless of how much they spent on Castillo, if he is not a better player than Betts and could benefit from time in AAA he should be sent down.

 

He is still a prospect in my eyes regardless of his age and contract.

 

The Sox have no problem having a guy in MiLB after signing him to a $63. mil deal. How is Castillo any different?

 

The best team possible should be on the field everyday. That is how you have the best chance of winning.

Edited March 2, 2015 by Spudboy

[sk7326]

Hanley has to get a guarantee. You don't drop $88 mil on your new LFer and put him on the bench. Also, your paying Castillo over $10 mil this year as well. He isn't gonna go to the minors on that coin. My guess is that Castillo and Hanley are opening day starters. If Vic is healthy, he's gonna start too. Betts will be sent down as will JbJ. JBJ doesn't belong. But sending down Betts might allow for another year of control

 

Oh they have plenty of cover to start Castillo in the minors. He has played so little actual baseball recently that it would make sense. The thing is, nobody else among the candidates has minor league options. You basically have to cut a guy outright to make room - and only Nava is any sort of candidate for that. Now, Victorino should be - because he is in the last of year of his deal, and it's all sunk cost anyhoo - but that won't happen, which is cool.

 

Now maybe somebody catches the Fort Myers Flu and makes the decision easier.

[User Name]

Does anyone question that Betts is ready for MLB? I don't.

 

That kid can hit. I think that the Sox need to find a way to have him in the lineup.

 

Regardless of how much they spent on Castillo, if he is not a better player than Betts and could benefit from time in AAA he should be sent down.

 

He is still a prospect in my eyes regardless of his age and contract.

 

The Sox have no problem having a guy in MiLB after signing him to a $63. mil deal. How is Castillo any different?

 

The best team possible should be on the field everyday. That is how you have the best chance of winning.

 

The Moncada situation is different. They will have 6 years of control over him no matter what. They didn't sign him to an actual structured MLB contract, he just got a signing bonus.

[sk7326]

The Moncada situation is different. They will have 6 years of control over him no matter what. They didn't sign him to an actual structured MLB contract, he just got a signing bonus.

 

True - although he does have options, which might make him in the minors at least a short short term way to solve the roster issue.

[mvp 78]

Moncada should be in the minors no matter what. If they can't move Victorino before opening day, Betts should be in Pawtucket. For Castillo, the best thing is to have him start from jump street.

[sk7326]

Only suspense with Moncada is whether he starts in Greenville or Salem. Given how little baseball he has played lately, Greenville makes the most sense and let him crash through levels on his own pace.

[pruneface]

Does anyone question that Betts is ready for MLB? I don't.

 

That kid can hit. I think that the Sox need to find a way to have him in the lineup.

 

Regardless of how much they spent on Castillo, if he is not a better player than Betts and could benefit from time in AAA he should be sent down.

 

He is still a prospect in my eyes regardless of his age and contract.

 

The Sox have no problem having a guy in MiLB after signing him to a $63. mil deal. How is Castillo any different?

 

The best team possible should be on the field everyday. That is how you have the best chance of winning.

Agreed. There are so many moving parts, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. First, we can scratch Brentz off the list. He has as much chance of making opening day as he does getting pregnant.

 

Then there's the vets - Vic, Craig, Nava and even Holt. Holt probably makes the bench. Craig is much more versatile than Nava. If he isn't traded, I'd like to see what he could do.

 

Ramirez is a lock. That leaves Betts, Castillo and Bradley. One thing that might help is to send guys down who have options and play the vets for a year if they are healthy. Barring a trade of course. Unlikely, but an OF of the trio just mentioned would be set for years to come. Ramirez could eventually DH or play first after Papi's gone. Napoli's only 33. If he has a monster season, they might look to bring him back, too. It's mind-boggling to consider the potential scenarios. It's a good problem to have, but it also presents a conundrum. The challenge is to choose wisely.

 

I think Cecchini is gone in a trade at some point - and he's a damn fine prospect.

 

For all the attention on their OFers, the Sox also have some starting arms who could come up and help at some point. This team is really in a good position. One could argue they don't need another starter - in house solutions will manifest. However, there are so many spare parts, they have to make a trade. I'd like to see them keep their gold chips. They have so much talent on the farm, they really don't need to give any of them up.

[jacksonianmarch]

Moncada isnt on the 40 man. He doesn't even need to burn an option to go to the minors

[Ogden]

Does anyone question that Betts is ready for MLB? I don't.

 

That kid can hit. I think that the Sox need to find a way to have him in the lineup.

 

Regardless of how much they spent on Castillo, if he is not a better player than Betts and could benefit from time in AAA he should be sent down.

 

He is still a prospect in my eyes regardless of his age and contract.

 

The Sox have no problem having a guy in MiLB after signing him to a $63. mil deal. How is Castillo any different?

 

The best team possible should be on the field everyday. That is how you have the best chance of winning.

 

 

From the limited sample of last year, Mookie looks similar to Ellsbury in that he gets on base a lot, can run, gets an abundance of extra base hits, and is a natural. Castillo should be the 4th OFer until Victorino gets hurt. If Craig hits, he should get time at 1B, the OF, and DH. Castillo's money should not be a factor, as you pointed out.