2014 Offseason Thread

[User Name]

Clutch is just one word used to describe something good happening in a key moment.

 

But what is a "key moment"? That's part of the issue.

 

Is it only when the season's on the line, postseason, close games? If a guy drives in the game-winning run in 20 games during the regular season, then has a bad postseason series and his team gets bounced from the playoffs, is he un-clutch?

[mvp 78]

Rising to the occasion or shrinking on it is exactly what it is. The problem is with the "clutch" terminology. You can quantify a guy who exceeds expectations, or one who shrinks under them, but not the mythical creature known as "clutch". Also, denying the luck factor in baseball is like trying to deny the existence of dinosaurs. See, that's the beautiful thing about facts, they are true whether we want to believe in it or not, and the fact is that luck plays a significant factor in performance within limited samples.

 

Let me ask you a question: Do you think Xander Bogaerts is "unclutch"?

 

I'm not going to fight your circular reasoning on this.

 

In life, you make your own luck. If you lose, it's because you weren't good enough not because you were unlucky.

 

I think Xander had a s***** season all around. He was fine in 2013 when it mattered.

[mvp 78]

Nomar was a bleepin' monster in 1998 and 1999 postseasons - 2003 ordinary. So I'm not sure that's a conclusive statement either.

 

Luck and health are facts of any postseason - it's not fun to chock up things to it, but there you go. And besides, big occasions are a function of good teams (usually) as much as anything. I don't think the argument is even that clutch exists/doesn't exist. I'm a fan - it sure as hell exists to me when I watch.

 

But there has not been a definition of those situation which meaningfully separate hitters or pitchers in a way that is siginificantly different from those players rank in general. The extreme cases largely do not exist ... the guy who is Nicky Punto 90% of the time but magically turns into 2004 Barry Bonds in the 8th inning with the tying run on base (and if he did, you'd ask whether he was asleep during the Nicky Punto times).

You can have clutch moments during the regular season to. I remember many more weak popouts to end a game from Nomar than successes.

[User Name]

I'm not going to fight your circular reasoning on this.

 

In life, you make your own luck. If you lose, it's because you weren't good enough not because you were unlucky.

 

I think Xander had a s***** season all around. He was fine in 2013 when it mattered.

 

It's not circular reasoning.

 

Are you saying that you can't have a significant amount of good AB's with s***** results?

 

You know who's a good example of this? Let's go back to Nick Swisher. Good AB's, bad results. Yankees buy low, get a bunch of good seasons for a cheap price because the guy was just flat-out unlucky with the White Sox. I bet Kenny Williams thought "you make your own luck", before facepalming into giving the guy away.

[mvp 78]

I think you care about this way too much tbh.

[sk7326]

You can have clutch moments during the regular season to. I remember many more weak popouts to end a game from Nomar than successes.

 

How his tour ended in Boston obscures just what a ridiculously good player he was before his injury ... he was good after too, but the 2003 postseason was meh and 2004 was what it was.

[User Name]

I think you care about this way too much tbh.

 

Or it's a slow day at the office, either/or.

[sk7326]

I don't think the "does clutch exist" question is germane for whether I enjoy the big games, or get nervous at big times or have had hero worship for Big Papi. I have had all of those - but it's not sufficient for management to evaluate players. That is the crux of the thing.

[iortiz]

You are just wrong on pretty much everything here except for two things: Pressure matters, and it's true that some pitchers/hitters can't handle it. But your continued incorrect assessment that closers are the only BP pitchers who can handle pressure is so wrong it makes me want to punch a kitten. It's wrong, you're wrong. Setup men face as much pressure as closers do, and are a lot of the time better pitchers than the closer itself. The only reason the closer myth persists is because of archaic thinking like this.

 

Number two, aren't you a stats guy who claims to have invented a model for accurate predictions? If so, how can you accept a statistically insignificant sample as the basis for anything? Stop.

 

whoa whoa there, gallo.

 

1. I said that closers are who can handle the pressure better than other good arms in a BP staff. Plenty of examples and situations are out there. In fact most of the teams have a named player for that spot and they usually use those arms in those under-pressure environments because it is a special role. Sorry, It is a fact.

 

2. Set up arms are under pressure as well but it is not even comparable what a closer face in the ninth. Some set up arms evolve and become closers. Unfortunately some of them can not make that big step and stay in that role because when they give them the opportunity they piss in their pants. This is why closers are the best paid in a BP staff, because they are supposed to shut down games consistently through a season.

 

3. Leave your kitten alone, it doesn't have the fault.

 

4. What does the clutch thing has to do with my model? Nothing. In baseball just like in life, out there are intangibles you have to consider like the clutch thing and pressure. In fact when you bet when game is already started (on direct bets) your best ally is your eyes and experience, and the stats frequently do not tell you nothing.

 

5. Stop? Are you the only one who can emit opinions here?

Edited March 4, 2015 by iortiz

[User Name]

I know now what I must do. I will bring an end to the great "clutch" debate using quantifiable methods. Stay tuned, members of the TalkSox community, for you are about to watch magic unfold.

[mvp 78]

I know now what I must do. I will bring an end to the great "clutch" debate using quantifiable methods. Stay tuned, members of the TalkSox community, for you are about to watch magic unfold.

 

Yes! You're going to dust off your magic burro again! Woot! s*** just got real!

[User Name]

Yes! You're going to dust off your magic burro again! Woot! s*** just got real!

 

I don't have a burro. I have a chivo. Get your facts straight.

[Spudboy]

But what is a "key moment"? That's part of the issue.

 

Is it only when the season's on the line, postseason, close games? If a guy drives in the game-winning run in 20 games during the regular season, then has a bad postseason series and his team gets bounced from the playoffs, is he un-clutch?

 

I'm not debating this topic. I made a simple observation.

 

I agree that clutch is not something that is not repeatable or quantifiable.

 

It's just someone making a good play at an opportune moment.

[sk7326]

And just like that, the CF position is resolved in the near term ...

[iortiz]

Castillo sidelined.

[Palodios]

There is a lot of good vibes coming from this team. Everyone arrived very early to camp. The starters have become quick friends. Hanley/Ortiz/Pablo seem to get along very well. Xander and Pedroia have been working out together all offseason. The atmosphere feels a lot like 2013.

[sk7326]

Castillo sidelined.

 

And thus ends the competition in CF. Obviously this injury is not a season stealer - but oblique is tough to heal, and if it means not working out for 2+ weeks, everybody has the requisite cover to start him in AAA (or extended spring with a cup of coffee in Pawtucket when it's go time)

[Spudboy]

What a pussy.

[seabeachfred]

There is a lot of good vibes coming from this team. Everyone arrived very early to camp. The starters have become quick friends. Hanley/Ortiz/Pablo seem to get along very well. Xander and Pedroia have been working out together all offseason. The atmosphere feels a lot like 2013.

 

That's good news Pal----and remember I have become the first member of Talksox to predict an AL East Title for our team this season so I hope this leads to the kind of team we grew to love two seasons back.

[Kimmi]

But there has not been a definition of those situation which meaningfully separate hitters or pitchers in a way that is siginificantly different from those players rank in general.

 

 

That pretty much sums it up right there. These players are not doing anything differently in clutch situations than what they normally do otherwise.

[Kimmi]

In life, you make your own luck. If you lose, it's because you weren't good enough not because you were unlucky.

 

 

Luck is not only a very real thing in baseball, it's also a very significant part of most baseball games. We're not talking about luck as in lucky rabbit's foot luck, but luck as in randomness. Randomness sometimes plays a bigger part in determining the outcome of the game than skill does.

[Kimmi]

I don't think the "does clutch exist" question is germane for whether I enjoy the big games, or get nervous at big times or have had hero worship for Big Papi. I have had all of those - but it's not sufficient for management to evaluate players. That is the crux of the thing.

 

^^^This

[Kimmi]

I know now what I must do. I will bring an end to the great "clutch" debate using quantifiable methods. Stay tuned, members of the TalkSox community, for you are about to watch magic unfold.

 

 

I wait with bated breath.....

[Kimmi]

There is a lot of good vibes coming from this team. Everyone arrived very early to camp. The starters have become quick friends. Hanley/Ortiz/Pablo seem to get along very well. Xander and Pedroia have been working out together all offseason. The atmosphere feels a lot like 2013.

 

 

I have felt this too Pal. There are a lot of good vibes heading into the season.

 

I wonder if I can find a stat on that.

[Kimmi]

And thus ends the competition in CF. Obviously this injury is not a season stealer - but oblique is tough to heal, and if it means not working out for 2+ weeks, everybody has the requisite cover to start him in AAA (or extended spring with a cup of coffee in Pawtucket when it's go time)

 

The outfield depth that we have is paying off already. Tough break for him, but it does make the decision for the FO easier.

[Kimmi]

What a pussy.

 

[Kimmi]

That's good news Pal----and remember I have become the first member of Talksox to predict an AL East Title for our team this season so I hope this leads to the kind of team we grew to love two seasons back.

 

 

No Fred, you are not the first member.

[Spudboy]

 

I was kidding.

 

Sorry if I offended you.

[Spudboy]

No Fred, you are not the first member.

 

lol

 

But he is the first member to remind us all twice a week.

 

But that's Fred!

[Kimmi]

I was kidding.

 

Sorry if I offended you.

 

 

You didn't offend me. It actually made me laugh.

 

I just wasn't expecting it from you.