2014 Offseason Thread

[cp176]

Sounds like your analysis of him came up with much different results from the Sox brain trust's.

 

I have every intention of staying upbeat about this team but my overall approach will be one of - wait and see - This is a big year for everyone in a management position. There is no question that there have been some good upgrades but I am not quite as excited as I think people want us to be. A realistic approach this year is not a bad one to have. It will be nice if everything comes together. I think that this is a very difficult team to predict. I want to think that they are capable of winning between 85 and 90 games. I am just not ready to place any bets. I think that we will soon see really what kind of a manager we have. He has a tough job with lots of decisions to be made-lots. I like him. I hope that he gets it done.

[User Name]

He'll be the X Factor.

 

I see what you did there.

[Spitball]

The Red Sox have made some positive additions to the offense. They are gambling on the conservative side on the starting pitching. That is okay with me. It will be easier to correct their conservative approach later than to correct a bad high salaried signing later. No team in the AL East made a truly significant upgrade to their starting pitching for the coming season. Why should the Red Sox risk a bad long term contract to a starting pitcher?

 

Lester pitched like a number three starter in 2012 and for most of 2013. He pitched well in 2014, but many pitchers do in their walk year. He was a willing participant in the beer and fried chicken scandal of 2011. I can see why the Red sox questioned his commitment.

 

The Yankees have a lot of bad long term contracts which prevented them from signing any of the big name starters this off season. The Red Sox were wise not to throw lots of money at an arm for longer than that arm was likely to be productive.

[jacksonianmarch]

Spit, while I don't think the sox have built a playoff roster, I am definitely jealous of what they are building. They have minimal long term commitments to older vets and have a cadre of young kids who look to be the goods. Without major expenditures, I think the sox are going to have the bragging rights after 2015 likely for a couple years.

[seabeachfred]

I'm not trying to resurrect bad memories, Fred, but this is my favorite baseball call of all time.

 

 

My favorite old dump of a ball park.

 

Nah Ogden....I got over that years ago when I became a Red Sox fan. I know go your way and call it the most dramatic moment in baseball history and feel no pain anymore. However, what is your favorite old dump, the Polo Grounds or Ebbets Field?

[Ogden]

Nah Ogden....I got over that years ago when I became a Red Sox fan. I know go your way and call it the most dramatic moment in baseball history and feel no pain anymore. However, what is your favorite old dump, the Polo Grounds or Ebbets Field?

 

 

The Polo Grounds because I saw the Mets play there when I was a wee lad - the short porches in LF and RF, the cutout in CF with the stairs up to the clubhouse, the walk down along Riverside Drive and descending to the park, the catwalks out to the second deck. Just awesome Although from what I've seen of Ebbets Field, it was probably the coolest ballpark I would have loved to have gone to. I assume that's what you are leading to. My mother was born in Flatbush and my grandfather used to play semi-pro ball in Ebbets Field so I'm well aware of what it meant to have a park in the neighborhood and have players living all around the area.

[Kimmi]

I have every intention of staying upbeat about this team but my overall approach will be one of - wait and see - This is a big year for everyone in a management position. There is no question that there have been some good upgrades but I am not quite as excited as I think people want us to be. A realistic approach this year is not a bad one to have. It will be nice if everything comes together. I think that this is a very difficult team to predict. I want to think that they are capable of winning between 85 and 90 games. I am just not ready to place any bets. I think that we will soon see really what kind of a manager we have. He has a tough job with lots of decisions to be made-lots. I like him. I hope that he gets it done.

 

 

I think we all have to take a wait and see approach. None of us knows for sure how this season is going to play out. I agree, it's a difficult team to project because there are several question marks. Not all of those question marks will break in our favor, but certainly some of them will. Knowing which ones will and which ones won't is the tricky part. If I had to put a number of wins on the season at this point, I'd say 88.

[Kimmi]

Spit, while I don't think the sox have built a playoff roster, I am definitely jealous of what they are building. They have minimal long term commitments to older vets and have a cadre of young kids who look to be the goods. Without major expenditures, I think the sox are going to have the bragging rights after 2015 likely for a couple years.

 

 

How long do you think the Yankees will be able continue this offseason's philosophy of not handing out any big contracts? IMO, if the Yanks miss the playoffs again, and the Red Sox win the WS (just speaking hypothetically), I see the Yankees throwing caution to the wind and having another big spending spree next offseason.

[mvp 78]

Is anyone buying the "Lucchino is on the way out" chatter of the past few days?

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/02/16/are-red-sox-shifting-away-from-larry-lucchino/yOI0qA1XmsDKQMYg7BUpCM/story.html

 

I know it comes from Shank, but could this be a real issue?

[Kimmi]

Is anyone buying the "Lucchino is on the way out" chatter of the past few days?

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/02/16/are-red-sox-shifting-away-from-larry-lucchino/yOI0qA1XmsDKQMYg7BUpCM/story.html

 

I know it comes from Shank, but could this be a real issue?

 

 

It's not the first time we've heard speculation about this in recent weeks. I honestly believe that he is a very good businessman, but that he tries to assert too much influence into baseball ops, and things do not go well when he does. We also heard a couple of years ago that Bill James was going to be given a larger voice in baseball decisions. I think that is synonymous with saying Lucchino would have less influence. I think that there is some substance to this story. I can only hope that it's true.

[cp176]

I think we all have to take a wait and see approach. None of us knows for sure how this season is going to play out. I agree, it's a difficult team to project because there are several question marks. Not all of those question marks will break in our favor, but certainly some of them will. Knowing which ones will and which ones won't is the tricky part. If I had to put a number of wins on the season at this point, I'd say 88.

 

Hope you are close with the 88 although it does seem very optimistic to me. That is a good thing I think. I also tend to think that dealing for that elite pitcher at the trading deadline is going to be more costly than the price today.

[Bellhorn04]

Hope you are close with the 88 although it does seem very optimistic to me. That is a good thing I think. I also tend to think that dealing for that elite pitcher at the trading deadline is going to be more costly than the price today.

 

Last year was a very good year for getting elite pitchers at the deadline for a reasonable cost (Lester & Price).

[Bellhorn04]

Is anyone buying the "Lucchino is on the way out" chatter of the past few days?

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/02/16/are-red-sox-shifting-away-from-larry-lucchino/yOI0qA1XmsDKQMYg7BUpCM/story.html

 

I know it comes from Shank, but could this be a real issue?

 

It's sort of interesting that Shank ties this in with Larry getting old and falling off his motorbike rather than anything to do with his track record.

[cp176]

Last year was a very good year for getting elite pitchers at the deadline for a reasonable cost (Lester & Price).

 

We'll see - hope you are right. I just think that it could turn into a ransom case when dealing with the Sox. It won't be a surprise to anybody when they decide to deal. Just the fact that they are talking about it sends the message that in fact they really aren't quite as optimistic going forward with that pitching staff as they would like us to believe.

[User Name]

No Red Sox official has talked about their interest in dealing for a pitcher. The media and we, the fans, are the ones doing the speculating. BC has been admant about his trust in the current pitching staff.

[sk7326]

Cherington has said nothing about it. I have no doubt he has explored talks about the sorts of pitchers who represent improvements. But to acknowledge it publicly would be stupid. Also, the industry knows how the Red Sox really feel about their staff - it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out if the Red Sox will be looking to add pitching in June. Management after the winter meetings - correctly IMO - decided to get off of other people's timelines for dealing with the pitching staff. The power to stand pat is the strongest trade chip the Sox have (think of the adage about negotiating for a car or house). Management has decided to credibly establish that power - which they have to do in order to make the deals on terms they can accept.

[User Name]

Cherington has said something. He has said he is very much satisfied with the current pitching staff, which is exactly what he SHOULD be saying:

 

We like where we’re at. We like the collection of pitchers we have,” Cherington said. “We think there’s untapped potential in the group, and the collection we have now can give us a strong pitching staff this year.”

[cp176]

Cherington has said something. He has said he is very much satisfied with the current pitching staff, which is exactly what he SHOULD be saying:

 

You are absolutely right . He has been nothing but upbeat as he should and has to be. At the same time it really is no surprise that he continues an open line with the Phillies for one.

[cp176]

Cherington has said nothing about it. I have no doubt he has explored talks about the sorts of pitchers who represent improvements. But to acknowledge it publicly would be stupid. Also, the industry knows how the Red Sox really feel about their staff - it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out if the Red Sox will be looking to add pitching in June. Management after the winter meetings - correctly IMO - decided to get off of other people's timelines for dealing with the pitching staff. The power to stand pat is the strongest trade chip the Sox have (think of the adage about negotiating for a car or house). Management has decided to credibly establish that power - which they have to do in order to make the deals on terms they can accept.

 

I just hope he is not dealing the way I just did for my car. I am just concerned that the price of the "real estate" is apt to go up.

[sk7326]

I just hope he is not dealing the way I just did for my car. I am just concerned that the price of the "real estate" is apt to go up.

 

In many cases I think, it is about "when do the contractual questions trump the baseball ones". The tough thing with the Hamels negotiations is that question is somewhat murky. In a case like Cueto or Gallardo, it's a lot more straightforward.

[User Name]

Remember SK, Gallardo got moved to the Rangers, so he is likely no longer an option for the Sox unless Texas absolutely tanks.

[mvp 78]

@JessMoranCSN: Hanley Ramirez on sox rotation"we are going to try to score 10 in the first inning, to try and make it easy for them."

[sk7326]

Remember SK, Gallardo got moved to the Rangers, so he is likely no longer an option for the Sox unless Texas absolutely tanks.

 

True. That said, Texas is very much on the same sort of knife's edge Detroit is, even moreso. They still have a lot of a team on paper that can contend. But they are also very much a team that could go the other way - the first couple of months will be particularly big for them.

 

To me there are maybe 6 teams who already know 2015 ain't for them. (Houston, Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona, Atlanta, Milwaukee) And I am sure a couple of those can lie to themselves for a bit. We have to be patient with how the teams themselves evolve. There are fewer financial reasons to move guys than ever - so we'll have to settle for the baseball ones.

[cp176]

@JessMoranCSN: Hanley Ramirez on sox rotation"we are going to try to score 10 in the first inning, to try and make it easy for them."

 

I needed that. I'm sitting here delayed in the airport. Humor needed. Need to get out of the northeast.

[cp176]

True. That said, Texas is very much on the same sort of knife's edge Detroit is, even moreso. They still have a lot of a team on paper that can contend. But they are also very much a team that could go the other way - the first couple of months will be particularly big for them.

 

To me there are maybe 6 teams who already know 2015 ain't for them. (Houston, Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona, Atlanta, Milwaukee) And I am sure a couple of those can lie to themselves for a bit. We have to be patient with how the teams themselves evolve. There are fewer financial reasons to move guys than ever - so we'll have to settle for the baseball ones.

 

When they do make a move, I think that it will hurt many people who would like to keep all prospects. You have to give to get and I don't think teams will want our tired iron. They will want youth and they will want good.

[sk7326]

When they do make a move, I think that it will hurt many people who would like to keep all prospects. You have to give to get and I don't think teams will want our tired iron. They will want youth and they will want good.

 

True - but that's what the scouting and development is for. I am not sentimental. My untouchable list is very short - Swihart, Owens, Rodriguez, Margot, Devers ... and the latter three are sufficiently far away from the bigs (although Rodriguez in particular can address that this season) that I wouldn't hang up the phone right away.

[cp176]

True - but that's what the scouting and development is for. I am not sentimental. My untouchable list is very short - Swihart, Owens, Rodriguez, Margot, Devers ... and the latter three are sufficiently far away from the bigs (although Rodriguez in particular can address that this season) that I wouldn't hang up the phone right away.

 

I agree with your list. What I have read about Rodriguez suggests that his "potential ceiling" is high - as in 2 or maybe the top of the rotation. He is just 21. Physically he looks like the real deal and already comes equipped with ample power. Do you know anything else about him? Mental makeup for instance.

[sk7326]

I agree with your list. What I have read about Rodriguez suggests that his "potential ceiling" is high - as in 2 or maybe the top of the rotation. He is just 21. Physically he looks like the real deal and already comes equipped with ample power. Do you know anything else about him? Mental makeup for instance.

 

Not much than what has been written - that his stuff is raw, but he made progress after the deal last season. Probably not a 2015 guy in any form (contrast that with Owens). I would not deal him for the most part.

 

Here is my view of the latter three prospects. Say you had a chance to get Josh Beckett again, knowing what you knew at the time (which is all you can rate a move on). 25 year old, former World Series MVP, #1 caliber stuff. And he was available for prospects. The latter prospects are guys the Marlins would have asked for, and those would be guys that I'd be willing to talk about because of the level of dude coming back. And I'd know there is a solid chance the kids blossom elsewhere and it'd break my heart - but opportunities like this do not happen every day and you have to take that seriously. (and fwiw while Josh Beckett generally underachieved relative to the expectations and prospect price - I have no issues with the deal and that 2007 flag of course is still pretty sweet)

 

That is the threshhold I'd be looking at. I know I've posted here that Devers - granted with the sort of super wide range of outcomes that is part of just turning 18 - is the guy in the system with future MVP upside.

[Palodios]

Here is my view of the latter three prospects. Say you had a chance to get Josh Beckett again, knowing what you knew at the time (which is all you can rate a move on). 25 year old, former World Series MVP, #1 caliber stuff. And he was available for prospects.

 

For modern day, we'd be talking Swihart + Owens for Chris Sale. Most of us would say yes to that. Unfortunately, the White Sox believe they'll contend, and I don't see many other 25 year old aces available, except maybe Strasburg, who is not healthy.

[Palodios]

Cole casually mentioned that he wanted to be traded to a contender.