2014 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox philosophy on long term deals has more or less been in place since this ownership group took over, hasn't it? I know they had some lapses with Crawford and Lackey, but for the most part, they set their ceiling on what they think a player is worth, and they will not go over it.

 

I think Crawford (142 million) and the A-Gon extension (154 million) were a little more than just 'lapses', Kimmi.

 

I also think the non-retention of Lester is kind of a statement. This is a guy they would have kept if it was 5 years earlier, IMO.

[iortiz]

Less years/more money is definitely the way to go.

 

It depends. I would base it on NPV, mostly considering the inflation that the league is facing. Look at Scherzer contract, it is around 210/14 Y isn't it? If the discount rate is 10% that contract woud look like a bargain to me.

[mvp 78]

I think Crawford (142 million) and the A-Gon extension (154 million) were a little more than just 'lapses', Kimmi.

 

I also think the non-retention of Lester is kind of a statement. This is a guy they would have kept if it was 5 years earlier, IMO.

Those were the signings that the gloom and doomers were popping boners over.

[Kimmi]

I think Crawford (142 million) and the A-Gon extension (154 million) were a little more than just 'lapses', Kimmi.

 

I also think the non-retention of Lester is kind of a statement. This is a guy they would have kept if it was 5 years earlier, IMO.

 

 

I agree with you on AGon. I think he is someone Theo really wanted and was willing to give the big contract to. I think Crawford and Lackey were lapses, at a time where they fed into the "monster". They made those signings against their better judgment.

 

As far as Lester goes, I really think they screwed that initial offer up big time. Had they made that same initial mistake 5 years ago, and had Lester hit FA 5 years ago where some other team outbid the Sox by $20 mil, I don't think the Sox would have upped their price. They would have let him walk.

 

It's the same with guys like Damon and Bay. The Sox wanted them back, but on their own terms, not on the player's terms.

[Palodios]

I can't stop thinking about James Shields. The pricetag has gone way down. The Patriots just upped the bar for New England sports, and Superbowl hype should die down soon. The Red Sox have a rotation of 20-something pitchers and probably could use a veteran presence, because Laptop is not going to be the ace or leader of this staff.

 

Maybe it is time to get creative. A 1/30 contract? A 3 year contract with lucrative vesting options? The lineup looks excellent, the defense looks excellent, the bullpen has potential. Why not finish the whole thing off with the most durable pitcher in baseball?

[mvp 78]

Laptop?

[SeanJohn93]

I feel as though Shields will be signed to an NL team

[SeanJohn93]

Fred was a great talent, no question about it, but his departure from Boston impacted his career and he was never the same player again. He was also very injury and, unfortunately, a very slow healer. Lynn lived just two miles from me, went to El Monte High School and competed in the same Pacific League as my Arcadia did. He was the PL's Player in the League in 1970 and was a standout pitcher as well. He lost to Arcadia 1-0 the last league game giving Mark Keppel the title and El Monte second place. Permit me to boast just a trifle. That spring I was the Frosh-Soph baseball coach at Arcadia and we went 21-1, finishing right on top. It was first year coaching in my community.

 

And I got married that summer too.

 

Sounds like a great summer Fred. You ever try and be a scout for a team?

[Kimmi]

I can't stop thinking about James Shields. The pricetag has gone way down. The Patriots just upped the bar for New England sports, and Superbowl hype should die down soon. The Red Sox have a rotation of 20-something pitchers and probably could use a veteran presence, because Laptop is not going to be the ace or leader of this staff.

 

Maybe it is time to get creative. A 1/30 contract? A 3 year contract with lucrative vesting options? The lineup looks excellent, the defense looks excellent, the bullpen has potential. Why not finish the whole thing off with the most durable pitcher in baseball?

 

 

I was thinking more or less the same thing. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of interest, and it seems that he is there for the taking. He has to be getting antsy with pitchers and cathcers reporting in about 2 weeks.

 

I've also read that no pitcher has ever signed for more than $50 mil after Feb. 1. Make him a decent offer and he might bite.

[cp176]

I was thinking more or less the same thing. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of interest, and it seems that he is there for the taking. He has to be getting antsy with pitchers and cathcers reporting in about 2 weeks.

 

I've also read that no pitcher has ever signed for more than $50 mil after Feb. 1. Make him a decent offer and he might bite.

 

I wonder if they have any interest in him at all. In a way I wish that they did but if they have a plan, he might not fit into it. Porcello for this year - Masterson for one year. lThey might really be counting on one of the youngsters to step up this year -

Rodriguez - Owens - Barnes- Johnson. Workman may even get another chance to start. I have to say that I don't expect much from Wright. I also hate the thought of a knuckleballer in the pen. (If) (When) they make a move, I think that it is going to be for a bigger fish though.

[Kimmi]

I wonder if they have any interest in him at all. In a way I wish that they did but if they have a plan, he might not fit into it. Porcello for this year - Masterson for one year. lThey might really be counting on one of the youngsters to step up this year -

Rodriguez - Owens - Barnes- Johnson. Workman may even get another chance to start. I have to say that I don't expect much from Wright. I also hate the thought of a knuckleballer in the pen. (If) (When) they make a move, I think that it is going to be for a bigger fish though.

 

It's tough to know what the plan is cp. IMO, Shields would fit nicely in this rotation, providing some veteran leadership. He's a pretty doggone good pitcher too, despite his recent postseason numbers. I have been thinking that the Sox were just waiting for the prices to come down, either with Shields or someone they might trade for. But maybe they really are intent on starting the season with what they have, and reassessing midseason.

 

I don't really like the idea of a knuckleballer in the pen either. That just scares me. LOL Farrell said the other day Workman would be preparing in camp to pitch out of the BP, not as a starter.

[cp176]

It's tough to know what the plan is cp. IMO, Shields would fit nicely in this rotation, providing some veteran leadership. He's a pretty doggone good pitcher too, despite his recent postseason numbers. I have been thinking that the Sox were just waiting for the prices to come down, either with Shields or someone they might trade for. But maybe they really are intent on starting the season with what they have, and reassessing midseason.

 

I don't really like the idea of a knuckleballer in the pen either. That just scares me. LOL Farrell said the other day Workman would be preparing in camp to pitch out of the BP, not as a starter.

 

I think that there is some legit fear that Shields has not pitched well in Fenway. I agree with you about what he has done and about his leadership abilities. Workman says he is willing to do whatever but he wants to get that shot again. You probably saw the great article on Vasquez today. He has been hanging with the Molina brothers - about the best instruction he could get. I did realize that he set a record last year - 51%- runners thrown out. He might be good enough to get away with hitting .240.

[Palodios]

I think that there is some legit fear that Shields has not pitched well in Fenway. I agree with you about what he has done and about his leadership abilities. Workman says he is willing to do whatever but he wants to get that shot again. You probably saw the great article on Vasquez today. He has been hanging with the Molina brothers - about the best instruction he could get. I did realize that he set a record last year - 51%- runners thrown out. He might be good enough to get away with hitting .240.

 

Vazquez has been hanging out with the Molinas a few years actually. By next year, he'll be teaching them a few things:cool:

[cp176]

Vazquez has been hanging out with the Molinas a few years actually. By next year, he'll be teaching them a few things:cool:

 

I guess he has been down there in catcher heaven for a good part of his life.

[User Name]

Postseason numbers are the least of my worries with Shields. They are a small sample and should be taken with a grain of salt.

[seabeachfred]

Sounds like a great summer Fred. You ever try and be a scout for a team?

 

SeanJohn----Actually I did do some "unofficial" scouting. I scouted some players for regular scouts when I was a coach. Being a real scout is a tiresome process and you better like it or you will fail. You're required sometimes to go to parts of three or four games a day, watch for two innings for a particular player and then go elsewhere for another game. And those reports you have to write. Writer's cramp, constant travel, away from your family-----I take my hat off to full time scouts. They're not paid nearly what they're worth. I had it best. I could coach my team and when I had time to a favor or two for five or six scouts that I knew and give them what help I could.....and I never took a penny for it.

[seabeachfred]

It's tough to know what the plan is cp. IMO, Shields would fit nicely in this rotation, providing some veteran leadership. He's a pretty doggone good pitcher too, despite his recent postseason numbers. I have been thinking that the Sox were just waiting for the prices to come down, either with Shields or someone they might trade for. But maybe they really are intent on starting the season with what they have, and reassessing midseason.

 

I don't really like the idea of a knuckleballer in the pen either. That just scares me. LOL Farrell said the other day Workman would be preparing in camp to pitch out of the BP, not as a starter.

 

Well hooray for Farrell. The idea of Workman as a starter is a sickening thought. All last season he would start an by the second time around the lineup would be little but cannon fodder for the hitters. A good one or two inning relief pitcher is what he could be, and probably an effective one as he showed in the 6th Game of the WS in 2013.

[Kimmi]

I think that there is some legit fear that Shields has not pitched well in Fenway. I agree with you about what he has done and about his leadership abilities. Workman says he is willing to do whatever but he wants to get that shot again. You probably saw the great article on Vasquez today. He has been hanging with the Molina brothers - about the best instruction he could get. I did realize that he set a record last year - 51%- runners thrown out. He might be good enough to get away with hitting .240.

 

 

As good as his CS% is, that is not the quality that has me excited about Vazquez. It's his pitch framing and his handling of the pitching staff. He is a big reason why I think the starting rotation that we have can be very good. I am glad to see how hard he is willing to work and that he is not taking his role on the team for granted.

[Ogden]

As good as his CS% is, that is not the quality that has me excited about Vazquez. It's his pitch framing and his handling of the pitching staff. He is a big reason why I think the starting rotation that we have can be very good. I am glad to see how hard he is willing to work and that he is not taking his role on the team for granted.

 

 

You're right about the pitch framing. Farrell made a comment about his ability to almost imperceptibly move his glove to steal strikes. And I love his emotion when the pitcher gets in trouble and then wiggles out of the jam. His enthusiasm is contagious.

[sk7326]

I would at this point - considering that Shields is still out there and how little the draft compensation is for Boston - offer Shields 2/50and see what happens. Now he might very well sign soon - maybe the length of time Scherzer was out there was a factor - but worth a look.

[cp176]

I would at this point - considering that Shields is still out there and how little the draft compensation is for Boston - offer Shields 2/50and see what happens. Now he might very well sign soon - maybe the length of time Scherzer was out there was a factor - but worth a look.

 

Plate framing or lack thereof cost Saltalamacchia a job in Boston. It is a teachable skill, some just do it better than others. Combining that with his ability to discourage movement on the bases and Vasquez keeps runs from scoring. Worth quite a few points on that batting average.

[cp176]

As good as his CS% is, that is not the quality that has me excited about Vazquez. It's his pitch framing and his handling of the pitching staff. He is a big reason why I think the starting rotation that we have can be very good. I am glad to see how hard he is willing to work and that he is not taking his role on the team for granted.

 

 

I agree with you but I think that discounting Salty plate framing is something that we have had in Boston over the years. Fisk obviously was a great one but I don't think that I have seen a better arm from a catcher in a Red Sox uniform. It's the overall package that makes the position so special and demanding. Not to mention the fact that it is very physically demanding. this guy does look like a Molina back there. Swihart's overall ability might be this guy's only issue. He can't do anything about that.

[cp176]

I am still trying to figure out how I feel about the loss of Renaudo. The move might be worth it - hope it is. When we start talking youth and Rodriguez, Owens, Barnes, I certainly see him as a fit in that group.

[Bellhorn04]

What I've read a few times now is that the Sox aren't interested in Shields because he's a fly ball pitcher. The Sox are keeping it on the ground this year.

[Palodios]

What I've read a few times now is that the Sox aren't interested in Shields because he's a fly ball pitcher. The Sox are keeping it on the ground this year.

 

I've heard that also. What really frustrates me is that the Red Sox kept saying "We're looking for an ace, but at the right price". Shields seems like he might be available for that right price.

[User Name]

He had a 45.2 GB% last year, and is at 44.1% for his career. Also, over 50% of his pitches were located in the lower quadrants of the strike zone last year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=7059&position=P&ss=2014&se=2014&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=0&grid=5&view=pit

 

That ain't it. I'm not buying it.

[Spudboy]

While I'd like to see Shields with the Sox, I just don't see the Sox investing in a 33-34 year old arm at this point.

 

My guess, and my hope, is that the Sox are emphasizing going with younger, controllable arms.

 

My bet is that the 2016 rotation will look quite different.

[a700hitter]

While I'd like to see Shields with the Sox, I just don't see the Sox investing in a 33-34 year old arm at this point.

 

My guess, and my hope, is that the Sox are emphasizing going with younger, controllable arms.

 

My bet is that the 2016 rotation will look quite different.

 

He has no leverage at this point. Pitchers and catchers are reporting in less than 2 weeks. He can probably be had at a reasonable price and length of years. I can't stand this " young controllable arms" idea. Our young controllable arms from last year -- Webster, De La Rosa, and Renaudo have all been jettisoned. I really don't expect the group coming behind them is much better. Porcello is a 1 year deal. So is Masterson. Buch's contract is up this season too

[cp176]

He has no leverage at this point. Pitchers and catchers are reporting in less than 2 weeks. He can probably be had at a reasonable price and length of years. I can't stand this " young controllable arms" idea. Our young controllable arms from last year -- Webster, De La Rosa, and Renaudo have all been jettisoned. I really don't expect the group coming behind them is much better. Porcello is a 1 year deal. So is Masterson. Buch's contract is up this season too

 

Someone will get him to play in a very pitcher friendly park. I think that he would just have to fall into the laps of the Red Sox in order for them to bite. They very well might see him as a player in decline and not likely to be successful in Fenway. He could certainly be an innings eater and might be someone that would help them. He is a proven gamer for sure.

[Palodios]

There is plenty of payroll flexibility to make Shields work at 3/60 or 4/70. At that price, it is a no-brainer. They should dangle Buchholz, and look for 8-10M. Later on, they can make more room with Craig (6 M), Victorino (13M), Mujica(5M). Or they can just spend the money and keep the players.