2014 Roster Projections

[a700hitter]

I just want to put out that iOrtiz and a700 just disagreed about something. Cherish this moment friends.

I don't really disagree with iortiz. I think the Ivy's stink at the undrgraduate level. Some do have excellent graduate programs.

[mvp 78]

And, yes, I am a Republican and a proud one. Now let's get back to baseball. I'm sure mvp didn't mean for this to get out of hand.

 

Yeah, I made a dumb joke about Harvard because my gramps went to MIT. Mention GWB and people still lose their minds. Get over it.

 

Why people are in the tank for a university they didn't pay tuition for, I'll never know...

[User Name]

And Obama sucks more. He's a total incompetent who has screwed up the whole medical system with his Obamacare---which is going to do down in flames along with a bunch of his fellow Democrats next year. And I like George W. a hell of a lot more than I do your guy Oby. And, yes, I am a Republican and a proud one. Now let's get back to baseball. I'm sure mvp didn't mean for this to get out of hand.

 

Hahaha who said i'm a Democrat? Don't get your panties in a bunch.

[User Name]

One does not get to be President of the United States by riding on daddy's coattails. It's too impressive a task in its own right for me to think that the daddy issue is not overblown.

 

Now what he did have that gave him a leg up politically, was the remnants of his father's political machine that he'd built up over the years. That gave W a rolodex full of names to call on for support that he might otherwise have come up with on his own. but any Governor or senator would have built up such a rolodex by the time W made the run for the nation's top office. And the name recognition also serves to make HW a factor in W's rise to power but that only takes you so far. He had to get the rest of the way himself.

 

Besides, let's face it, George W. Bush was more successful as a President by any reasonable standard than his father was. He was reelected for one thing. He managed the aftermath of 9/11 (well, IMHO) for another. HW is going to be remembered more as reagan's Veep than for anything he did while in office. Love him or hate him, W's presidency was far, FAR more notable.

 

Except that that's exactly how he got to office, and "sucking less" is not an accomplishment.

[iortiz]

I don't really disagree with iortiz. I think the Ivy's stink at the undrgraduate level. Some do have excellent graduate programs.

 

Mi compadre is in the house! How are you, Ted?

 

I think that the problem is the expectations that some Universities create into their students and/or the expectations that students have when they finish their undergraduate education. Some young people think that only because they completed a undergraduate education at an elite institution deserve a lot of money and a top management position just like that which is totally wrong. Real life is totally different. You have to learn and get experience. On the other hand an undergraduate education and mostly at an elite institution gives you more chances/tools to succeed when you are looking for that qualified/good first job than a young guy that didn't study at all. Collage is not for everyone and some have made a lot money without an undergraduate education, but if I had a son and if it was up to me I would do everything in my hands to encourage him/her to attend collage, and if it is at an elite one, even better. As a father you want the best for your kids and education is the best you can give them IMO.

[Palodios]

I think he is talking about undergraduate level while I'm talking about graduate level and specifically about HBS's MBA program... So I don't know LOL.

 

I don't really disagree with iortiz. I think the Ivy's stink at the undrgraduate level. Some do have excellent graduate programs.

 

Well, it was good while it lasted.

 

Kidding guys, just goofing off

[marklmw]

For example, Ells at least right now has both excellent speed and acceleration. Both of those are athletic skills. Yes, they translate to an ability to track down balls in the outfield, steal bases and stretch singles into extra base hits. What does Ells replace his speed and acceleration with as they decline? Why do you think so much of the discussion regarding Ells and years has focused on the subject of what you do with a player that depends so much on his legs as a key element to his game, once he starts to age and his legs start to go?

 

or

 

Are you going to contend that his speed and acceleration are simply not going to decline as he ages? If that is the case, good luck with that one.

 

I am inclined to think he will retain enough speed, acceleration and hitting skill to remain a lead off hitter. However if playing CF does take too much out of him athletically over time, not at all an unusual occurrence for a CF, then he may not be able to lead off later in his career. He may have to drop down to the 2 hole in the batting order or even lower. He does not appear to be a guy that can hold down the 3, 4 or 5 hole in the order. So if he has drop lower than 2, he is going to drop to 6 or lower in the order.

 

So, today whoever signs him has a lead off hitting, base stealing, extra base stretching CFer that covers an incredible amount of ground in the outfield. However three, four or five years from now, they may very well have a LFer, hitting out of the 2 or 6 holes, not nearly so valuable an asset. That is why there is so much focus on what you are paying for Ells in the out years and how much you are willing to risk on a guy who's legs are such a big part of his game.

 

The offset for the right team might be that Ells will be on the cover of their program starting in 2014. That is an additive feature that another team might value in Ells The Sox won't IMO pay a penny for that. That might in fact be one of the differences in what another team will pay and what the Sox will pay for Ells. The Sox already have their face of the franchise, Pedey.

What you are basically saying is how long into ones career can a player be an effective center fielder. Is there an age. You have to take a year off of Ellsbury's legs due to injuries ... so he is really 29 in baseball years. I actually think that the Sox have a chance to repeat. But what is a good chance .... make the playoffs and you have a chance ... win your division or have the best record in the AL and win the All Star Game and your chances improve. The Sox chances of a repeat are further increased if they sign Ells. From a long term vision it probably makes more sense to let JBJ take over at 500K in 2014. I think the one thing that everyone agrees on is that Dempster and his 14M contract need to go.

Edited November 19, 2013 by marklmw

[Palodios]

I think the one thing that everyone agrees on is that Dempster and his 14M contract need to go.

 

Getting rid of his 14 million would be great. Getting rid of 7 million of his 14 million would not be great.

[seabeachfred]

Getting rid of his 14 million would be great. Getting rid of 7 million of his 14 million would not be great.

 

The problem is getting some team to take over Dempster's contract for next season and it isn't going to be easy. I think we will have to eat some of that from the look of things and be grateful for any savings we can get as we try to send Ryan back to the NL.

[dupree]

If the Sox had to eat 4 million of his contract i see that as a win. And the sox only asking for a low level prospect in return. Getting him out of Boston and having the payroll flexabilty is more important than to have him on this roster.

[Bellhorn04]

Crazy thought of the day: if Dempster had been on the 2012 team, his 4.57 ERA would have been second on the team just barely behind Buchholz's 4.56.

[marklmw]

Among all those dissing the Red Sox's chances entering 2013, one optimist stood out: Bill James.

 

We don’t know what he was telling the Sox privately, in his role as senior adviser of baseball operations. Proprietary information and all that, although we can tell you that his influence on the Sox roster extended all the way down to Mike Carp, a complementary piece that James lobbied the Sox to sign. He wasn’t the only one -- the Sox had liked Carp for a while -- but his voice was heard.

 

[+] EnlargeWill Middlebrooks

Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY SportsAlthough Will Middlebrooks struggled in 2013, Bill James still is a believer, projecting Middlebrooks will hit 32 home runs in 2014.

Fortunately for fans -- and the fantasy baseball players in their midst -- James annually graces us with the publication of his handbook, in which he offers player projections for the coming season. He is very self-effacing about the process, and the newly published 2014 Bill James Handbook is no different.

 

“We are always right, except when we are wrong,’’ he writes. “We are always on target except when we’re off. We are always on time, except when we are early, or when we are late. We do the best we can.’’

 

But when it came to projecting Sox players last season, James had a very good year. He was too high on Will Middlebrooks and too low on Daniel Nava, but close on many of the team’s other key components. He predicted that nine Sox players would hit 10 or more home runs. Eight did, while three (Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Carp) finished with nine apiece. He predicted that the Sox would have five starting pitchers with an ERA under the league average (3.99). Three did, while a fourth (Jake Peavy, who didn’t join the team until midseason) just missed.

 

Looking at individual players, some of his projections were spooky. Ellsbury, for example. James projected a .781 OPS for Ellsbury; he finished at .782, with fewer home runs (15 to 9) and more stolen bases (52 to 37) than forecast.

 

David Ortiz was projected to hit 32 home runs with 103 RBIs. He finished with 30 and 103. The projected OPS was .919, the actual .959.

 

Mike Napoli was projected to have an .847 OPS with 29 home runs and 75 RBIs. The actual OPS was .842, with 23 home runs and 92 RBIs.

 

Jonny Gomes was pegged for 16 home runs and a .778 OPS. Gomes hit 13 home runs with a .770 OPS.

 

James said Shane Victorino would hit 14 home runs and steal 29 bases. He hit 15 and stole 21, despite season-long hamstring issues, and outperformed James’s projection for OPS, .804 to .752.

 

He said Stephen Drew would hit 11 home runs; Drew hit 13, and like Napoli had a higher OPS than projected, .776 to .736.

 

James missed on Pedroia, predicting 17 home runs and an .825 OPS, compared to the nine home runs and .787 OPS actually posted by the Sox second baseman, James’s computer models failing to anticipate that Pedroia would tear a thumb ligament in the first game of the season.

 

While many questioned whether Jon Lester could rebound from a 9-14, 4.82 ERA in 2012, James was not in their midst, predicting a dozen wins and a 3.71 ERA. Lester won 15 with a 3.75 ERA. Clay Buchholz’s 1.74 ERA was well below the 3.64 projected by James, but he also missed more than three months. John Lackey had a club record-worst ERA of 6.41 in 2011, the last year he pitched before undergoing Tommy John surgery. James predicted a dozen wins and a 4.05 ERA in a bounce-back year for Lackey, who won 10 with a 3.52 ERA.

 

So what is James projecting for 2014? He remains bullish on Middlebrooks (32 home runs in ’14) and projects strong rookie seasons for Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts, which if his opinion is shared widely on 4 Yawkey Way points to all-but-certain departures for Ellsbury and Drew.

 

Here’s our clip and save list:

 

BILL JAMES' 2014 PREDICTIONS -- HITTERS

Player OBP OPS HRs

Jacoby Ellsbury .348 .774 12

David Ortiz .384 .914 30

Shane Victorino .336 .751 14

Jonny Gomes .336 .769 16

Stephen Drew .332 .730 12

Dustin Pedroia .371 .814 14

Mike Napoli .348 .819 26

Jarrod Saltalamacchia .313 .750 19

Daniel Nava .377 .812 11

Will Middlebrooks .310 .800 32

Jackie Bradley Jr. .329 .749 15

Xander Bogaerts .357 .807 19

BILL JAMES' 2014 PREDICTIONS -- PITCHERS

Player W-L ERA

Clay Buchholz 12-9 3.46

Felix Doubront 8-10 4.39

Ryan Dempster 9-10 4.02

Jon Lester 14-9 3.67

Jake Peavy 11-7 3.31

John Lackey 11-11 3.93

Koji Uehara 23 saves 1.80

[marklmw]

The problem is getting some team to take over Dempster's contract for next season and it isn't going to be easy. I think we will have to eat some of that from the look of things and be grateful for any savings we can get as we try to send Ryan back to the NL.

I would imagine the more the Sox eat the better the prospect in return.

[User Name]

According to Jim Bowden on Twitter, the Red Sox are one of four teams to express interest in Corey Hart so far.

[sk7326]

Getting rid of his 14 million would be great. Getting rid of 7 million of his 14 million would not be great.

 

Generally you can ask a team take salary or send an actual player, but not both. Also, if you hate him that much - cut him. Money is already gone.

[sk7326]

According to Jim Bowden on Twitter, the Red Sox are one of four teams to express interest in Corey Hart so far.

 

It's a perfect pickup if the terms are reasonable - starter upside and there is at least one job opening for somebody to snatch up in LF.

[mvp 78]

It's a perfect pickup if the terms are reasonable - starter upside and there is at least one job opening for somebody to snatch up in LF.

 

We don't need 6 OF's.

[mvp 78]

I would imagine the more the Sox eat the better the prospect in return.

 

Sox should just keep him for when Peavy and Buchholz inevitably wind up on the DL.

[User Name]

For the records, reports indicate that the Sox view Hart almost strictly as a 1B after his knee troubles.

[Palodios]

Crazy thought of the day: if Dempster had been on the 2012 team, his 4.57 ERA would have been second on the team just barely behind Buchholz's 4.56.

 

I try to bring that up whenever people talk about trading him. He's significantly more valuable than some posters here realize.

[mvp 78]

For the records, reports indicate that the Sox view Hart almost strictly as a 1B after his knee troubles.

That makes much more sense.

[User Name]

I try to bring that up whenever people talk about trading him. He's significantly more valuable than some posters here realize.

 

When Peavy and/or Buchholz eventually miss time due to injury, the whining about trading Dempster will break the sound barrier if the Sox trade him.

[marklmw]

When Peavy and/or Buchholz eventually miss time due to injury, the whining about trading Dempster will break the sound barrier if the Sox trade him.

 

I can think of 4 or more players who are a lot cheaper who I would rather fill in when injuries occur. Owens, Webster, Workman, Barnes oh and my niece Peggy Sue. Can you pitch underhand under MLB rules?

[marklmw]

Crazy thought of the day: if Dempster had been on the 2012 team, his 4.57 ERA would have been second on the team just barely behind Buchholz's 4.56.

Bellhorn .... please stop bringing up 2012 ... I have just managed to erase that season from my mind.

[marklmw]

And Obama sucks more. He's a total incompetent who has screwed up the whole medical system with his Obamacare---which is going to go down in flames along with a bunch of his fellow Democrats next year. And I like George W. a hell of a lot more than I do your guy Oby. And, yes, I am a Republican and a proud one. Now let's get back to baseball. I'm sure mvp didn't mean for this to get out of hand.

 

Come on Fred Bush was pretty bad ... but I do agree that Obama is a total disaster ... I should not say Obama ... the people behind Obama are a disaster. Obama just reads the teleprompter he dose not write the speeches he only reads them. Our country is going down fast ... much faster than anyone realizes actually.

[User Name]

I can think of 4 or more players who are a lot cheaper who I would rather fill in when injuries occur. Owens, Webster, Workman, Barnes oh and my niece Peggy Sue. Can you pitch underhand under MLB rules?

 

Owens is not ready, Barnes is not ready. Webster is an option, but Workman might not be. RDLR, Webster and Anthony Ranaudo probably get first cracks at rotation time when someone goes down.

[Behindenemylines]

Hart is an Arizona guy. From what I have read I don't think he wants to play on the east coast. His right handed power would be interesting in Fenway. How is his D and does he strike out as much as Nap?

[User Name]

The whole "will only play on X part of the country" is usually silenced by a wad of dough, as we have seen several times. As for his D, there's not a lot to go on since he hasn't played a lot of 1B. He does K a lot, but not as much as Napoli.

[marklmw]

Owens is not ready, Barnes is not ready. Webster is an option, but Workman might not be. RDLR, Webster and Anthony Ranaudo probably get first cracks at rotation time when someone goes down.

I agree that Owens and Barnes are not ready today ... probably not leaving spring training but could very well be by mid season.

[marklmw]

The whole "will only play on X part of the country" is usually silenced by a wad of dough, as we have seen several times. As for his D, there's not a lot to go on since he hasn't played a lot of 1B. He does K a lot, but not as much as Napoli.

Will Hart demand as much money at Napoli? From a health stand point Hart might be more appealing while at the same time Napoli plays one hell of a first base. Hart is tall though so he might have a reach advantage over Napoli.