2014 Roster Projections

[marklmw]

Didn't Breslow fall apart in the WS? Who removed the Napoli thread ... I hope Fred had the chance to see it.

[sk7326]

But Wainwright, who was the emergency closer in 2006, had 9.2 scoreless innings that postseason.

 

Here's a question/challenge: when was the last time a team won the World Series in spite of their closer pitching poorly in that postseason?

 

He had 9.2 scoreless innings ... Trevor Rosenthal had 11 scoreless innings. That sort of streak is not actually that rare among relievers. It is hard to win a World Series when any of your regulars performs poorly. It's even harder if your starters perform poorly.

 

And if you wanted an answer to your question fwiw, 2001 Diamondbacks

[Dojji]

This makes zero sense. Lack of a reliable closer isn't the reason neither of them has won a WS this decade. Hell, they've made the postseason several times between the two of them with elite closers without winning jack squat.

 

Lack of a reliable closer is only a symptom of the real issue I'm calling to with either of those teams, which is about a refusal to stockpile real depth in bench and bullpen roles. Makeshift closers tend to be at the end of makeshift bullpens, and a makeshift bullpen won't hold in the playoffs. Similarly, platoon roleplayers can have great years over a regular season when their slumps and hot streams average out, but when the level of competition goes up in the playoffs I wouldn't expect them to sustain their surges very long if left exposed in starting roles. Heck, look what happened to Nava this year.

 

 

This, however, makes more sense, but is still misguided to an extent. The closer is important, yes, but having several go-to guys in the BP is even more important, as you present here. Even though he shat all over himself in the WS, the Sox don't even make it without Craig Breslow's and Brandon Workman's contributions, the unsung heroes of the post-season.

 

I was the "Koji-for-closer" club's leader all season long, so it's not like i'm discounting his dominance. He would have been just as important, however, in a relief-ace role instead of the annointed "closer" tag based on an archaic, nearly-meaningless stat.

 

Fortunately, we had stockpiled enough depth and were sufficiently nonstupid that we didn't put the entire postseason on Koji's arm. Which of 3-4 talented arms to use in which role, is the same discussion it would be if we were debating which of 3-4 utterly talentless arms to use in the same role. It's the talent that matters, which reliever used where is mostly a question of rearranging furniture, and any possible gains are minor enough to make the whole argument little more than noise to me.

 

I'm not a slave to the closer mentality. Most good relievers can probably close at a decent level, but when you have a guy who's getting it done at a level well above decent, that's a good time to leave well enough alone.

I just feel that it's misguided to make the issue about the closer when it's really about picking up quality arms and building the bullpen as a whole, top to bottom, to save leads.

[sk7326]

While true, when was the last time either Tampa or Oakland won the World Series?

 

They're great at doing the regular season on the cheap, but when the chips are down, their cheapout tactics don't leave them the depth or internal fortitude to weather problems.

 

They lost because they couldn't HIT ... the relief had little to do with it (ESPECIALLY in Oakland's case)

[Dojji]

Didn't Breslow fall apart in the WS?

 

True, but overall in the playoffs he still put up a 2.15 ERA.

[Dojji]

They lost because they couldn't HIT ... the relief had little to do with it (ESPECIALLY in Oakland's case)

 

And their lack of offense speaks to the same problem -- going cheap in depth and putting questionable players in key positions because they're cheaper to pay to play there.

[marklmw]

Without the Ortiz slam off Detroit's Closer the Sox more than likely loose the series to Detroit. Koji never gives up that slam.

[Dojji]

While true Benoit is quite an RP in his own right. Ortiz just beat him. That's going to happen with the best relievers. It's hard to judge sometimes, the ones that would get away from the best, and the ones you let get away because you couldn't assemble a proper bullpen, there's no real cut and dried rubric.

[sk7326]

And their lack of offense speaks to the same problem -- going cheap in depth and putting questionable players in key positions because they're cheaper to pay to play there.

 

I think in both those cases it is a lot more complex than that - Tampa gets a lot of mileage out of their offense with approach. And both of the teams (like Boston does) built teams to their home ballparks - both play in extreme pitchers parks, and they gear to it.

 

And Oakland did not have Justin Verlander - or the best baseball team of the last 20 years. Tampa lost to the wire to wire best team in the sport. What horrible mismanagement.

[SoxSport]

There's a Salty thread at Sons of Sam Horn chatgroup with an analysis of pitch framing for different catchers some of you folks might be interested in.

 

I won't go into the parameters-a bit complicated (% of in zone pitches called balls, out of zone pitches called strikes, etc)--but the results show Salty and Lav are much worse pitch framers than Ross, McCann and Hannigan--the catchers who were listed. I've always thought Salty was a bad pitch framer--often holding his glove in the middle of the plate. Ross frames the corners more frequently. That was evident in the playoffs. The data seem to support that.

 

I would guess the Red Sox FO is well aware of data like this.

[User Name]

And their lack of offense speaks to the same problem -- going cheap in depth and putting questionable players in key positions because they're cheaper to pay to play there.

 

But the problem is that you've significantly altered the scope of the problem. You've gone from the closer issue to roster construction as a whole. You are moving the goalposts.

[Palodios]

Anyone else annoyed that David Ortiz wants a new contract again? I get it, you're awesome. We all love you, and you know it. But keep this stuff inhouse.

[marklmw]

While true Benoit is quite an RP in his own right. Ortiz just beat him. That's going to happen with the best relievers. It's hard to judge sometimes, the ones that would get away from the best, and the ones you let get away because you couldn't assemble a proper bullpen, there's no real cut and dried rubric.

 

I believe that he threw a first pitch fast ball down the heart of the plate if my memory serves me correct ... my mind got a little crazy on that one.

Pitching is as much mental as physical.

[marklmw]

Anyone else annoyed that David Ortiz wants a new contract again? I get it, you're awesome. We all love you, and you know it. But keep this stuff inhouse.

I agree ... keep it in house and give him another year.

[sk7326]

The "who won with poor closing" question is a bit of a red herring. Shoddy relief pitching will kill you in any short series. It is not the magical 9th inning. The more important question is who has won with "non-special" closing, and the answer is "a lot".

[marklmw]

There's a Salty thread at Sons of Sam Horn chatgroup with an analysis of pitch framing for different catchers some of you folks might be interested in.

 

I won't go into the parameters-a bit complicated (% of in zone pitches called balls, out of zone pitches called strikes, etc)--but the results show Salty and Lav are much worse pitch framers than Ross, McCann and Hannigan--the catchers who were listed. I've always thought Salty was a bad pitch framer--often holding his glove in the middle of the plate. Ross frames the corners more frequently. That was evident in the playoffs. The data seem to support that.

 

I would guess the Red Sox FO is well aware of data like this.

Through only my eyes I believed this. In fact it seems to me that Salty makes strikes balls which is the worse thing a catcher can do. I think Lester knows this for sure. It is hard to imagine that a catcher who has been catching since 10 or 11 does not know how to frame a pitch. I bet that Molina is the best and I said that he probably saves .5 off era for every game he catches.

[Palodios]

The last few years, Lester has been frustrated about not getting strike calls he once did, and that coincided with Salty's arrival. I have absolutely no problem seeing him go, but Lavs may not be much better.

[marklmw]

The last few years, Lester has been frustrated about not getting strike calls he once did, and that coincided with Salty's arrival. I have absolutely no problem seeing him go, but Lavs may not be much better.

 

I hear good things about Vasquez.

[iortiz]

And their lack of offense speaks to the same problem -- going cheap in depth and putting questionable players in key positions because they're cheaper to pay to play there.

 

This.

 

This is why rich teams often win regardless the sport.

 

Not sure why some people want to play money ball with a big market team like the Red Sox at every position. JH has plenty of money. I'm not saying that we have to sign every single FA, giving them long stupid contracts at every position, but trying to platoon every position or/and go all the way with rookies is simply ridiculous. if they want to go with JBJ, XB and WM next season I'm all for it but protect them with big boys like McCann and Napoli.

 

Anyway, hopefully our FO assemble a good team this year.

[jung]

Where there is the way the catcher sets a target for the pitcher and there is the way he frames the pitch thrown.

 

Salty does not do either one worth a darn. As we have often commented here, He often has the mitt just the least bit left or right of the middle of the plate which is not for the most part where the pitcher wants to throw it unless he has a death wish.

 

As for how he frames the pitch, Salty is constantly stabbing at the ball. While it is almost unfair to compare Salty to Molina, it is worthwhile just to discuss doing it right vs doing it wrong. Molina positions himself and his mitt so that he barely has to move himself or the mitt to receive the ball that is thrown where the pitcher intends it. Salty is very often lurching after the ball, carrying the ball out of the strike zone even if it was border line to begin with....just terrible. Sometimes he looks like he is about to topple out of his crouch to catch the ball. The home plate ump is not likely to call a pitch a strike with Salty lurching, stabbing and barely retaining his balance back there?

[Bellhorn04]

He had 9.2 scoreless innings ... Trevor Rosenthal had 11 scoreless innings. That sort of streak is not actually that rare among relievers. It is hard to win a World Series when any of your regulars performs poorly. It's even harder if your starters perform poorly.

 

And if you wanted an answer to your question fwiw, 2001 Diamondbacks

 

This is questionable. The Sox won the World Series with hardly anyone besides Ortiz posting good offensive numbers.

 

Good answer on the D'Backs.

[marklmw]

Where there is the way the catcher sets a target for the pitcher and there is the way he frames the pitch thrown.

 

Salty does not do either one worth a darn. As we have often commented here, He often has the mitt just the least bit left or right of the middle of the plate which is not for the most part where the pitcher wants to throw it unless he has a death wish.

 

As for how he frames the pitch, Salty is constantly stabbing at the ball. While it is almost unfair to compare Salty to Molina, it is worthwhile just to discuss doing it right vs doing it wrong. Molina positions himself and his mitt so that he barely has to move himself or the mitt to receive the ball that is thrown where the pitcher intends it. Salty is very often lurching after the ball, carrying the ball out of the strike zone even if it was border line to begin with....just terrible. Sometimes he looks like he is about to topple out of his crouch to catch the ball. The home plate ump is not likely to call a pitch a strike with Salty lurching, stabbing and barely retaining his balance back there?

Nothing is more frustrating for a pitcher than losing a strike because of poor framing. My dad is 83 and I try to watch a game a week with him. He can attest that I have been bitching about Salty's framing forever. It may not be fair to compare to Molina but this is more mental than physical. When a pitcher louses a K with a pitch that is in or close enough and then the hitter ends up getting on base or worse yet knocking a run in it is a maddening thing to deal with. When an outside pitch is brought in correctly and results in a K and retires the side it is sweetness. Molina expands the zone for his pitchers where Salty constricts the zone. In fact I think with Molina the pitchers purposely miss off the plate knowing that he will frame it as a strike.

[sk7326]

This is questionable. The Sox won the World Series with hardly anyone besides Ortiz posting good offensive numbers.

 

Good answer on the D'Backs.

 

The offense had poor batting averages but got on base - and it has to be noted just how many pitcher-friendly parks they played in. The position players remained solid throughout on defense and the starters ranged from outstanding to good enough.

[Palodios]

First big move of the offseason!!!

 

Red Sox re-sign World Series 40-man roster member Brandon Snyder!

[User Name]

This.

 

This is why rich teams often win regardless the sport.

 

Not sure why some people want to play money ball with a big market team like the Red Sox at every position. JH has plenty of money. I'm not saying that we have to sign every single FA, giving them long stupid contracts at every position, but trying to platoon every position or/and go all the way with rookies is simply ridiculous. if they want to go with JBJ, XB and WM next season I'm all for it but protect them with big boys like McCann and Napoli.

 

Anyway, hopefully our FO assemble a good team this year.

 

The Sox are playing moneyball, and being cheap ain't what moneyball is about. This is, at worst, a 150 million dollar team with several high-priced players. What are you even talking about?

 

I get that you want Napoli. But if they fail to sign him and go for another alternative, (like Hart, who may even have more upside and will command a similar AAV to Napoli, albeit on a one-year deal) how is that going on the cheap?

[marklmw]

First big move of the offseason!!!

 

Red Sox re-sign World Series 40-man roster member Brandon Snyder!

 

I can sleep well tonight!

[seabeachfred]

Thing is Napoli is the one who came out and said he wanted to test the market. The sox didn't say "oh we want to look at other options." The Sox FO is going to do their due dilligence on any and all possibilities for a replacement for Napoli in case he gets an offer from another team that the Sox just can't match. It's simple really. Both sides expressed interest, but Napoli wants to see what kind of payday he can get. We'll just have to see what happens.

 

Right NC84--- we will have to wait. Still I wonder if Mike would have tested the market if the Red Sox had offered him a three contract from he get-go? I guess we won't know until this thing is played out. I think he is a better fit for us than any other team.

[seabeachfred]

Oh we need to make some moves to get to where we want to go. Moreover, we need the performance from the kids to achieve our true promise. I guess the way I look at is, Ben put together a pretty good team on paper last year - and between the fact that the team got to field it's "on paper" lineup far more often than in recent memory, along with the positive performances of Victorino, Uehara and Drew particularly, you get the best team in the majors from wire to wire.

 

The team with a minimalist offseason is still a 90 win team or so with just some solid "typical" seasons from the guys. But you can't count on the injury good fortune - especially the fortune that resulted in basically 6 pitchers making virtually all of our starts.

 

I just take issue with Fred's idea of "Ben put together players with amazing spirit" hooey - chemistry to me forms during the season. It comes when a group of guys is successful together, and each season you are starting from scratch there. It is hard to get that sort of team success when your players - especially your leaders - just cannot perform, and then when you add a manager who cannot fill in the gap, we see what happened. When that stuff starts to slip, and losing becomes all too regular - any set of professionals can let the bad vibes seep in.

 

I would normally go along with what you said Ski but I'm going by what Victorino, Gomes, Napoli and Ross said the beginning of Spring Training last March. To a man they all believed they had the makings of a solid team and believed they not only could win but would. Moreover, Shane said the players came together almost immediately. Perhaps things don't happen this way very often but we all have to admit this Red Sox team was very unusual in this regard. It was a very special team. You don't go from the bowels of the outhouse to the ceiling of the penthouse very often at all and yet this Red Sox team did it. Maybe we should just look at this team as something very unique. I know of no other team that ever dominated baseball as this year's Red Sox team did after a year when they looked like cow s*** and were as dysfunctional and toxic a team imaginable.

[iortiz]

The Sox are playing moneyball, and being cheap ain't what moneyball is about. This is, at worst, a 150 million dollar team with several high-priced players. What are you even talking about?

 

I get that you want Napoli. But if they fail to sign him and go for another alternative, (like Hart, who may even have more upside and will command a similar AAV to Napoli, albeit on a one-year deal) how is that going on the cheap?

 

Again, taking out of context my post. I never said that going on cheap is/means money ball hahaha.

[marklmw]

I would normally go along with what you said Ski but I'm going by what Victorino, Gomes, Napoli and Ross said the beginning of Spring Training last March. To a man they all believed they had the makings of a solid team and believed they not only could win but would. Moreover, Shane said the players came together almost immediately. Perhaps things don't happen this way very often but we all have to admit this Red Sox team was very unusual in this regard. It was a very special team. You don't go from the bowels of the outhouse to the ceiling of the penthouse very often at all and yet this Red Sox team did it. Maybe we should just look at this team as something very unique. I know of no other team that ever dominated baseball as this year's Red Sox team did after a year when they looked like cow s*** and were as dysfunctional and toxic a team imaginable.

Bobby V was a disaster ... Farrell might have been the most important off season signing. Anyway, it is nearly impossible within baseballs framework to keep a team together. Especially a team with 4 FA's. Have you ever noticed that FA's tend to have their best seasons just before entering the FA market. Ellsbury was hurt pretty bad last year ... his hand, foot ... of course he played through it.