2014 Roster Projections

[User Name]

Hart will take a 1-year deal to rebuild value per reports.

[sk7326]

We don't need 6 OF's.

 

Probably not - and Hart is really more of a 1B look than anything. But LF/1B are similar searches. If the Sox had a full time option in mind for LF they would not have had the Gomes fetish for so long. Now Hart is not an urgent priority but it would be irresponsible not to do the due diligence.

[Palodios]

It's a perfect pickup if the terms are reasonable - starter upside and there is at least one job opening for somebody to snatch up in LF.

 

I'm a big fan of signing Hart as a backup plan. Signing him could potentially net the Red Sox two first round picks. The problem is that the Red Sox will need to wait till December and his health information becomes available, and if it turns out his knees are shot after Napoli signs, that could be a problem.

[jung]

Glad the Sox are hunting Hart. I don't know if it has been reported here as yet but while I was down in the shop working with the radio going, I heard that the Sox were in hot pursuit of Beltran.

[BornToRun]

Glad the Sox are hunting Hart. I don't know if it has been reported here as yet but while I was down in the shop working with the radio going, I heard that the Sox were in hot pursuit of Beltran.

 

Yup, appears that there are serious talks occurring between the Sox and Beltran. I don't know if I it gets done though, Beltran wants 3-4 years and our OF situation is kind of crowded.

 

If we signed him, I don't think I'd want him in right field. His old age and poor knees would be a disaster in Fenway's RF not to mention he'd force us to move Vic off position back to center. I don't think Shane would be bad as a center fielder again but I think his defense would certainly take a hit. He was probably the best defensive player in the game in 2013, I don't wanna mess with that. Bradley profiles as a solid glove in center so I think he could do an adequate job of replacing Ellsbury's defensive value at the least.

 

I would put Beltran in left if we signed him which would mean the end of the Nava/Gomes platoon. And between Nava/Gomes/Carp, I don't see us carrying all 3 on the bench so someone has to be the odd man out. Either Gomes or Carp by my estimation given the recent report that BC has no interest in trading Nava.

 

Is there any chance that Beltran maybe moves to first? I don't think he's capable of being a plus defensive outfielder anymore and a move to first would take some strain off of his knees. And I think his bat is good enough to replace what Napoli gave us in 2013. Just spitballing.

[jung]

If the Sox are serious about Beltran they must be thinkin' LF at this point. I can't remember at this moment if he has played any 1st at all but you would think somebody would have tried him there by now. If he could play 1st it would be helpful to the cause even if the Sox did not intend playing him there. Sox have done a great job of implementing roster flexibility in 2013. I would guess they would like to continue that for 2014.

[Thunder]

Sox need to focus on resigning everyone they want to before looking to Beltran. tbh, Beltran isn't a necessity. Sox need to bear down.

[Palodios]

I just don't get the need for Beltran. He's way too old, fills no role, and costs too many years and a draft pick. On a 1/20 year, great. Otherwise, I just don't understand this at all. Can he play 1B?

[User Name]

Playing him at 1B may be exactly what they're thinking.

[User Name]

Sox need to focus on resigning everyone they want to before looking to Beltran. tbh, Beltran isn't a necessity. Sox need to bear down.

 

This doesn't make any sense. They can do both at the same time (not referring specifically to Beltran, but to FA's besides their own).

[marklmw]

I just don't get the need for Beltran. He's way too old, fills no role, and costs too many years and a draft pick. On a 1/20 year, great. Otherwise, I just don't understand this at all. Can he play 1B?

I am with you Palodios ... why would the Sox want to add a second senior citizen to the roster. We were lucky enough last season that Papi's heal did not act up. Makes zero sense whatsoever. But perhaps they are just kicking the tires and not all that series. Hart and Beltran at the same time makes even less sense.

[User Name]

I am with you Palodios ... why would the Sox want to add a second senior citizen to the roster. We were lucky enough last season that Papi's heal did not act up. Makes zero sense whatsoever. But perhaps they are just kicking the tires and not all that series. Hart and Beltran at the same time makes even less sense.

 

They wouldn't be able to sign both even if they wanted to. They're probably looking for contingency plans in case Napoli signs elsewhere. In that scenario, it makes all the sense in the world to do due dilligence.

[jung]

As I said earlier, I would find it hard to believe that as long as he has played, nobody has at least worked Beltran out at 1st base. Plus even with is advanced years Beltran still fits the "lets get players that can play more than one position approach". I think Beltran could play Fenway's LF although I would not want to see him playing Fenway's RF in anything other than an emergency.

 

I can see it on a short term deal if the Sox can't get Napoli to come back. I do think Naps lands back here if for no other reason than I think Naps wants back and I think the Sox want him back. Seems to me that unless somebody offers Naps something stupid on the open market, both parties find a way to make it happen here.

[sk7326]

Really, if you want to look at the Red Sox objectively, you'd probably say that LF there is absolutely a job opening, same with C. And that's about it. So Beltran is a totally legitimate short term option to play LF and he'd be an upgrade over Nava/Carp. The quibble would be the price - since he is QO'd. As far as 1B goes - between the general nature of the position and the Sox having Butterfield on their staff (who is reputed to be one of the best fielding instructors around - and fielding being one of the places where pro instruction actually can do a lot), I think they are happy signing the bat and figuring out the glove later there.

[Palodios]

Really, if you want to look at the Red Sox objectively, you'd probably say that LF there is absolutely a job opening, same with C. And that's about it. So Beltran is a totally legitimate short term option to play LF and he'd be an upgrade over Nava/Carp. .

 

Beltran is NOT an upgrade to Nava/Gomes though. If platooned correctly, they can produce roughly a .850 OPS with a .380 OBP, and comprable defense.

[sk7326]

Beltran is NOT an upgrade to Nava/Gomes though. If platooned correctly, they can produce roughly a .850 OPS with a .380 OBP, and comprable defense.

 

I meant Gomes - and the probability on Beltran is higher in the short run - though yes the platoon is effective, enough that LF is not an urgent priority. That said, if you can get one person to man the spot, that is one less roster spot needed in this age of 85 man pitching staffs

[mvp 78]

Beltran is NOT an upgrade to Nava/Gomes though. If platooned correctly, they can produce roughly a .850 OPS with a .380 OBP, and comprable defense.

 

If they bring Beltran in, it's to be a 1b.

[BornToRun]

I'm going to feel very smart if we sign Beltran to be our first baseman.

[Palodios]

If they bring Beltran in, it's to be a 1b.

 

He is 37 years old, and has played zero games at first base in his major league career. He is an even worse fit at 1B than LF.

[SoxSport]

Thinking about Beltran, I can't make much sense out of any serious interest here--other than keeping him away from the Yanks. But then do the Yankees really want another expensive graybeard? The Red Sox certainly shouldn't. Can't see him playing spacious RF in Fenway if Vic replaces Ells in CF. And there are no other real defensive options in RF unless it's Bradley--who is supposed to play CF. I don't think Nava is viable defensively in RF.

 

So why the "interest" in Beltran? LF? That would screw up what they have--Nava/Gomes. I think a lot of this is just the usual media hype, at a dead time of the year when they have to have something to talk about.

 

Bradley makes sense as the logical successor to Ells in CF, with Vic staying in RF. Now if they want insurance for Bradley, they need a stronger defensive option in RF than Beltran, if Vic moves to CF.

 

Somebody says Beltran at 1B? That sounds creative--insurance for Napoli, in case he goes elsewhere. But what about Salty at 1B? Mauer says his hitting will be better moving from catcher to 1B. Salty's hitting might be better there, too.

Edited November 20, 2013 by SoxSport

[sk7326]

He is 37 years old, and has played zero games at first base in his major league career. He is an even worse fit at 1B than LF.

 

Considering that 1B is the home of guys who can't do anything else (save the odd Keith Hernandez-JT Snow types), this is not that big an obstacle. And since Beltran is a better athlete than the usual convert - this is an area I'd be less concerned with. Napoli - with less athletic skill, but yes more training - turned into a solid 1B defensively. So coaching up the skill is not at all unprecedented. This ain't shortstop.

[mvp 78]

He is 37 years old, and has played zero games at first base in his major league career. He is an even worse fit at 1B than LF.

 

You realize that people transition to 1b as they get older. Were people up in arms when Yaz was moved to 1b? 1b is the dumping ground for older players. Napoli moved to 1b this year and was fantastic. Why wouldn't Beltran be as good? He's much more athletic than Napoli.

 

Edit: see SK's post above.

[SoxSport]

I meant Gomes - and the probability on Beltran is higher in the short run - though yes the platoon is effective, enough that LF is not an urgent priority. That said, if you can get one person to man the spot, that is one less roster spot needed in this age of 85 man pitching staffs

 

Nava/Gomes are under contract. Beltran is 37 in April'14, has bad knees and is probably not a full-time player at this point--despite any effort by Boras to make him look 10 years younger. Nava/Gomes worked out very well for them this year. One of Cherington's successes.

[SoxSport]

On the Bill James' Red Sox projections listed by marklmw--thanks.

 

He isn't right all the time, but he's a Red Sox consultant, so his voice is heard in the FO. He is projecting good years for MBrooks, Bradley and Bogaerts. That increases the chances those three will be regulars next year. It also decreases the chances of the Red Sox paying Boras money for Ells or Drew. There are no guarantees, however on any of these young players. But as I've said before, they just won a championship, and have the luxury of being able to gamble on the kids.

The Cardinals do that all the time.

 

By the way, if you want to judge who the FO values, just check who was on and off the Playoffs roster. I would exclude Bradley, who was probably next on the roster in the event of injury. Dempster is clearly the low pitcher on the totem pole.

 

What's the projection on Workman? They have said he'll be competing for a rotation spot. Also, I'd like to see the batting average projections.

[sk7326]

Nava/Gomes are under contract. Beltran is 37 in April'14, has bad knees and is probably not a full-time player at this point--despite any effort by Boras to make him look 10 years younger. Nava/Gomes worked out very well for them this year. One of Cherington's successes.

 

Still a 2-win player as a 37 year old, although some of that will increase moving to an easier position. He is still a reasonable starter, if not an amazing one.

 

I would not judge who the front office values based on the playoff roster. All the 25-man playoff roster was for was to determine who the team thinks can get them through a 1 month tournament in October 2013 - no more, no less. Quintin Berry was on the roster for having precisely one big league skill, but one which is valuable when all 14 of your position spots count. (contrast this to Saint Louis who wasted 2 roster spots on two pitchers they almost never used) But he is by no means ahead of Bradley in the org pecking order. The front office's decisions on players have a much longer time horizon than their decisions on who makes the playoff roster.

[sk7326]

Josh Johnson to Padres - another strong move for both parties. No better way to rehab a career than to go to a hitter's graveyard.

[Palodios]

You realize that people transition to 1b as they get older. Were people up in arms when Yaz was moved to 1b? 1b is the dumping ground for older players. Napoli moved to 1b this year and was fantastic. Why wouldn't Beltran be as good? He's much more athletic than Napoli.

 

Edit: see SK's post above.

 

Yaz played first base in 15 different seasons, as well as time at 3B. Napoli averaged 50 games a year at 1B from 2010-2012. Not only does Beltran have zero games at 1B, he has zero games in the infield for his career.

[sk7326]

Yaz played first base in 15 different seasons, as well as time at 3B. Napoli averaged 50 games a year at 1B from 2010-2012. Not only does Beltran have zero games at 1B, he has zero games in the infield for his career.

 

If there is one position on the field that can be taught (and often is - whether it be Joe Mauer, Buster Posey etc), it's 1B. If there are two positions, it's 1B and LF.

[mvp 78]

Yaz played first base in 15 different seasons, as well as time at 3B. Napoli averaged 50 games a year at 1B from 2010-2012. Not only does Beltran have zero games at 1B, he has zero games in the infield for his career.

 

In 6 of those seasons, Yaz played less than 25 games at 1b.

 

At 3b, he played 3 games one year and 30 5 years later. For someone who played over 3,000 games, calling that "a little time at 3b" is exaggerating it.

[BSN07]

I think the "interest" in Beltran is only to drive up his price imo.

 

If they do however bring him in it could be for LF with Gomes and Nava/Carp take over 1B. Maybe idk, it have to be some kind of combo or someone would have to get dealt. You have to think Carp and Nava's trade value is probably higher then it has ever been, so it's possible. This is just one of many possible routes that the Sox could take.