2014 Roster Projections

[mvp 78]

Saying Ells can't throw because nobody taught him is a load of bull. Some guys just have weak arms.

 

Nah, the minor leagur coaches aren't there for that!

[mvp 78]

We must not be talking about the same Harvard. To me that was one of the elite universities in the country. When a classmate of mine Jack Shershow was accepted there and graduated from there I was envious as hell. He became a surgeon in New York. I became a teacher and coach but I would have given anything to have had the ability to get into Harvard. Why you hold it in such low esteem is beyond me.

Then I won't spoil it for you by telling you what my wife and friends have said about taking classes there.

[marklmw]

"Beginning in the fall of 1973, Bush attended the Harvard Business School, where he earned a Master of Business Administration. He is the only U.S. President to have earned an M.B.A.[39]"

 

Ok ... we get your point ... you hate Harvard because George Bush went there.

[marklmw]

Simple...Ells game is far more dependent on athleticism that it is on specific baseball skills. This is not an unusual nor even rare phenomenon as it relates to baseball players. However as his athleticism declines it is more telling for a player like Ells because he does not have assets to replace it. Ells can easily turn into a very mid-pack average player, way overcompensated as he ages and his athleticism declines.

 

In part this is why somebody commented about not seeing many players not named Ricky Henderson that were that reliant on their athleticism to carry their baseball careers that remained effective enough to justify big paychecks later in their careers.

 

Does Ells look like he will turn into a 3 or 4 spot hitter knocking balls out of the park late in his career for example?....No. Can he throw, allowing for a transition to RF making him more valuable later in his career as his athletic skills decline?.....No. Hitting the ball out of the park is a baseball skill more than it is an athletic skill. Throwing the ball is more of a baseball skill than it is an athletic skill. Ells can't throw because nobody bothered to teach him how and he never learned. All you have to do is watch him throw to know that.

 

Sorry Jung ... I am not buying this baseball skill vs. athletic skill argument. I would imagine that most MLB players pitched at one time in their career. Little League etc. Perhaps Ellsbury never pitched. Perhaps he never had to make throws because he was running down everything hit. How many runs in the course of Ellsbury's career has he cost the team because of his throwing arm? How many of those runs have cost the Sox winning the game. This whole stuff about his arm is crazy. His arm is stronger than Damon's ... was Damon just an athlete as well with no baseball skills. We are not talking golfers here and even if were were today's golfers are very good athletes. All baseball players are athletes ... even David Wells was an athlete. Big Papi and Prince Fielder are athletes. Sumo wrestlers are athletes. Would Ellsbury be in the majors for his speed alone ... he obviously has athletic skills that translate to baseball.

Edited November 19, 2013 by marklmw

[User Name]

Ok ... we get your point ... you hate Harvard because George Bush went there.

 

Really? That's your conclusion?

[marklmw]

Really? That's your conclusion?

My educated conclusion is that MVP hates George Bush and so he hates Harvard because Bush went there. My other educated guess is the MVP hates Harvard because it is an elite University and he has issues with anything elite and he still hates George Bush not because G. W. snorted coke but because he does not like him because he has been conditioned not to like him. btw. I am not a fan of George W. Bush either but the fact that he snorted coke and attended Harvard has nothing to do with the reasons I dislike the man. Good enough for you UN?

[User Name]

My educated conclusion is that MVP hates George Bush and so he hates Harvard because Bush went there. My other educated guess is the MVP hates Harvard because it is an elite University and he has issues with anything elite and he still hates George Bush not because G. W. snorted coke but because he does not like him because he has been conditioned not to like him. btw. I am not a fan of George W. Bush either but the fact that he snorted coke and attended Harvard has nothing to do with the reasons I dislike the man. Good enough for you UN?

 

I just think those conclusions are pretty uneducated. Lol.

[marklmw]

I just think those conclusions are pretty uneducated. Lol.

 

What is with the LOL UN ... what are you 12 years old? Since you felt compelled to chime in (I know you can't help yourself) how about you with your infinite wisdom tell me your conclusion to MVP's comment about Harvard then. Words and comments have consequences. Or maybe MVP himself would like to further explain his comment.

[User Name]

What is with the LOL UN ... what are you 12 years old? Since you felt compelled to chime in (I know you can't help yourself) how about you with your infinite wisdom tell me your conclusion to MVP's comment about Harvard then. Words and comments have consequences. Or maybe MVP himself would like to further explain his comment.

 

It's funny you're calling ME a 12-year old when you're trying to turn a comment about a university into a political debate. I can't help but LOL. Oh, and Bush sucks.

[marklmw]

It's funny you're calling ME a 12-year old when you're trying to turn a comment about a university into a political debate. I can't help but LOL. Oh, and Bush sucks.

If I were to call you an ******* it would be unkind to the *******s of the world

[User Name]

If I were to call you an ******* it would be unkind to the *******s of the world

 

I'm sorry man, you're just to easy to troll. I'm just messing with you. Bush does suck though.

[User Name]

Dioner Navarro is thought to have "drawn initial interest from the Red Sox," Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald reports. The switch-hitting catcher hit a career-best .300/.365/.492 in 266 PA with the Cubs last season, doing most of his damage against left-handed pitching. Navarro is just one of several catching options the Sox are considering, from Brian McCann or A.J. Pierzynski to re-signing Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

 

From MLBTR

[Palodios]

Harvard is a joke university that gave GWB a degree when his nose spent more time in a pile of coke than in his books. I wasn't talking about that overpriced hole.

 

One student doesn't make a college. 8 U.S. Presidents have attended Harvard, including Obama. Two more Vice Presidents as well. 40 Nobel Prize winners. A long list of senators and congressmen. I'm sure the college doesn't lose sleep over letting in one overprivileged senator's son 30 years ago.

[User Name]

According to Sean McAdam, the Red Sox have around 25 million to spend instead of the 32 million presented by Alex Speier. That would make the off-season plan a little more problematic.

[mvp 78]

My educated conclusion is that MVP hates George Bush and so he hates Harvard because Bush went there. My other educated guess is the MVP hates Harvard because it is an elite University and he has issues with anything elite and he still hates George Bush not because G. W. snorted coke but because he does not like him because he has been conditioned not to like him. btw. I am not a fan of George W. Bush either but the fact that he snorted coke and attended Harvard has nothing to do with the reasons I dislike the man. Good enough for you UN?

Holy s***... My original point was that there is a better school than Cal Tech in Cambridge. Fred said, "Hahvid" and I had to disagree because Cal Tech is a better school than Harvard. Harvard is overrated. It's hard to get into, but the classes are easier than other schools in the area. This is based on what I've been told by people that have attended there. I made the GWB point as a joke, not as my only point of criticism.

[jung]

Sorry Jung ... I am not buying this baseball skill vs. athletic skill argument. I would imagine that most MLB players pitched at one time in their career. Little League etc. Perhaps Ellsbury never pitched. Perhaps he never had to make throws because he was running down everything hit. How many runs in the course of Ellsbury's career has he cost the team because of his throwing arm? How many of those runs have cost the Sox winning the game. This whole stuff about his arm is crazy. His arm is stronger than Damon's ... was Damon just an athlete as well with no baseball skills. We are not talking golfers here and even if were were today's golfers are very good athletes. All baseball players are athletes ... even David Wells was an athlete. Big Papi and Prince Fielder are athletes. Sumo wrestlers are athletes. Would Ellsbury be in the majors for his speed alone ... he obviously has athletic skills that translate to baseball.

 

For example, Ells at least right now has both excellent speed and acceleration. Both of those are athletic skills. Yes, they translate to an ability to track down balls in the outfield, steal bases and stretch singles into extra base hits. What does Ells replace his speed and acceleration with as they decline? Why do you think so much of the discussion regarding Ells and years has focused on the subject of what you do with a player that depends so much on his legs as a key element to his game, once he starts to age and his legs start to go?

 

or

 

Are you going to contend that his speed and acceleration are simply not going to decline as he ages? If that is the case, good luck with that one.

 

I am inclined to think he will retain enough speed, acceleration and hitting skill to remain a lead off hitter. However if playing CF does take too much out of him athletically over time, not at all an unusual occurrence for a CF, then he may not be able to lead off later in his career. He may have to drop down to the 2 hole in the batting order or even lower. He does not appear to be a guy that can hold down the 3, 4 or 5 hole in the order. So if he has drop lower than 2, he is going to drop to 6 or lower in the order.

 

So, today whoever signs him has a lead off hitting, base stealing, extra base stretching CFer that covers an incredible amount of ground in the outfield. However three, four or five years from now, they may very well have a LFer, hitting out of the 2 or 6 holes, not nearly so valuable an asset. That is why there is so much focus on what you are paying for Ells in the out years and how much you are willing to risk on a guy who's legs are such a big part of his game.

 

The offset for the right team might be that Ells will be on the cover of their program starting in 2014. That is an additive feature that another team might value in Ells The Sox won't IMO pay a penny for that. That might in fact be one of the differences in what another team will pay and what the Sox will pay for Ells. The Sox already have their face of the franchise, Pedey.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Sean McAdam, the Red Sox have around 25 million to spend instead of the 32 million presented by Alex Speier. That would make the off-season plan a little more problematic.

 

McAdam, though, is guessing that the team will keep the payroll at the same level it was at last year, even though the tax threshold increases by 11 million from 178 to 189. He may be right but my guess is that their limit will be closer to the 189 million.

[User Name]

McAdam, though, is guessing that the team will keep the payroll at the same level it was at last year, even though the tax threshold increases by 11 million from 178 to 189. He may be right but my guess is that their limit will be closer to the 189 million.

 

Very good point. Good post as usual Bellhorn.

[sk7326]

For example, Ells at least right now has both excellent speed and acceleration. Both of those are athletic skills. Yes, they translate to an ability to track down balls in the outfield, steal bases and stretch singles into extra base hits. What does Ells replace his speed and acceleration with as they decline? Why do you think so much of the discussion regarding Ells and years has focused on the subject of what you do with a player that depends so much on his legs as a key element to his game, once he starts to age and his legs start to go?

 

or

 

Are you going to contend that his speed and acceleration are simply not going to decline as he ages? If that is the case, good luck with that one.

 

I am inclined to think he will retain enough speed, acceleration and hitting skill to remain a lead off hitter. However if playing CF does take too much out of him athletically over time, not at all an unusual occurrence for a CF, then he may not be able to lead off later in his career. He may have to drop down to the 2 hole in the batting order or even lower. He does not appear to be a guy that can hold down the 3, 4 or 5 hole in the order. So if he has drop lower than 2, he is going to drop to 6 or lower in the order.

 

So, today whoever signs him has a lead off hitting, base stealing, extra base stretching CFer that covers an incredible amount of ground in the outfield. However three, four or five years from now, they may very well have a LFer, hitting out of the 2 or 6 holes, not nearly so valuable an asset. That is why there is so much focus on what you are paying for Ells in the out years and how much you are willing to risk on a guy who's legs are such a big part of his game.

 

The offset for the right team might be that Ells will be on the cover of their program starting in 2014. That is an additive feature that another team might value in Ells The Sox won't IMO pay a penny for that. That might in fact be one of the differences in what another team will pay and what the Sox will pay for Ells. The Sox already have their face of the franchise, Pedey.

 

The odds of Ellsbury retaining CF skills are low - although how long that will take is a legitimate question. I actually think "can he stay leadoff" is a far lesser concern. The approach he showed this season would allow him to ride out some of the loss of speed. After all, he is not a slap hitter who leans on bunts or infield hits for production. It is possible he slips from a 50 SB guy to a 20 SB one as he gets older - but one forgets how long Kenny Lofton remained an effective top of the order bat. Obviously as an outfielder as you get older you rely more on your ability to get breaks and positioning (and hopefully coaches who understand it too),

 

The near term valuation of Ellsbury is pretty rock solid - depending on how you factor in the injuries - it is the shape of the performance curve afterwards that is interesting. I like his chances of remaining an effective top of the order bat into his mid-30s ... I would not pay what he is asking for it though.

[SoxSport]

[OT, from discussion above]

 

W went to the Business school at Harvard--with the help of his father. That was documented in the movie "W". There's a scene when his father, Bush, Sr tells him he had to pull strings to get him into the B school. The Bushes were disappointed with W, which may be the reason why Mrs Bush said "two are enough" when asked about son Jeb running for President.

 

W got an MBA from Harvard, and he was a fighter pilot in the AF reserve. He must have some smarts, but his career was heavily greased by his father. He made his money originally by buying a chunk of the Texas Rangers with oil money furnished by his father's friends. After the Rangers moved into a publically-financed stadium, the team's value greatly appreciated, and W made several million $ selling his share.

[a700hitter]

I agree with MVP about Harvard, and hold similar opinions about most of the other Ivy League Universities. The education they provide at the undergraduate level is almost wholly useless. Their graduates enter the work force as entitled brats that don't know how to work, and even worse, many think that work is beneath them. I have worked with many of them over the years. They look great on paper, but they very few are good at their job. There is still value in the degree, because they do get jobs, whereas graduates from other colleges anf universities have a very difficult time getting employment.

[iortiz]

One student doesn't make a college. 8 U.S. Presidents have attended Harvard, including Obama. Two more Vice Presidents as well. 40 Nobel Prize winners. A long list of senators and congressmen. I'm sure the college doesn't lose sleep over letting in one overprivileged senator's son 30 years ago.

 

HBS has one of the best programs in this planet based on the method case which is followed by tons of business schools around the world. The value of the method case is not the "professor" or the "facilities" of the business school but the people that attend the program (average in HBS: 700 GMAT plus other filters; which guaranties in some way the competitiveness of the class) since the dynamic of the program is not the typical class where the professor teaches and the students only receive knowledge. In fact, the professors only play the role of moderators for the discussion created by the students who debate tons of real cases in order to reinforce one thing and one thing only: their decision making. Anyway, I think MVP has been told wrong, HBS is not overrated, most of the people who graduates there are successful in business, look at Bush LOL.

Edited November 19, 2013 by iortiz

[User Name]

Bush is not a good example, since most (if not all) of his success has come from his father's help and manipulation of the system.

[Palodios]

I just want to put out that iOrtiz and a700 just disagreed about something. Cherish this moment friends.

[User Name]

I took a print screen and will hang it on my bedroom wall.

[iortiz]

I just want to put out that iOrtiz and a700 just disagreed about something. Cherish this moment friends.

I think he is talking about undergraduate level while I'm talking about graduate level and specifically about HBS's MBA program... So I don't know LOL.

Edited November 19, 2013 by iortiz

[sk7326]

I agree with MVP about Harvard, and hold similar opinions about most of the other Ivy League Universities. The education they provide at the undergraduate level is almost wholly useless. Their graduates enter the work force as entitled brats that don't know how to work, and even worse, many think that work is beneath them. I have worked with many of them over the years. They look great on paper, but they very few are good at their job. There is still value in the degree, because they do get jobs, whereas graduates from other colleges anf universities have a very difficult time getting employment.

 

I'm sorry Brown University North Campus rankles so.

[mvp 78]

If I was to rank universities, Brown would clearly be the best since Chelsea Clinton went there!

 

Unfortunately, my lazy and entitled father went there too, but just for grad school.

 

[seabeachfred]

I'm sorry man, you're just to easy to troll. I'm just messing with you. Bush does suck though.

 

And Obama sucks more. He's a total incompetent who has screwed up the whole medical system with his Obamacare---which is going to go down in flames along with a bunch of his fellow Democrats next year. And I like George W. a hell of a lot more than I do your guy Oby. And, yes, I am a Republican and a proud one. Now let's get back to baseball. I'm sure mvp didn't mean for this to get out of hand.

Edited November 19, 2013 by seabeachfred

[Dojji]

Bush is not a good example, since most (if not all) of his success has come from his father's help and manipulation of the system.

 

One does not get to be President of the United States by riding on daddy's coattails. It's too impressive a task in its own right for me to think that the daddy issue is not overblown.

 

Now what he did have that gave him a leg up politically, was the remnants of his father's political machine that he'd built up over the years. That gave W a rolodex full of names to call on for support that he might otherwise have come up with on his own. but any Governor or senator would have built up such a rolodex by the time W made the run for the nation's top office. And the name recognition also serves to make HW a factor in W's rise to power but that only takes you so far. He had to get the rest of the way himself.

 

Besides, let's face it, George W. Bush was more successful as a President by any reasonable standard than his father was. He was reelected for one thing. He managed the aftermath of 9/11 (well, IMHO) for another. HW is going to be remembered more as reagan's Veep than for anything he did while in office. Love him or hate him, W's presidency was far, FAR more notable.

Edited November 19, 2013 by Dojji