Big Fan of Pedroia but Not His Extension

[Standing Room]

In my opinion sk7, Ellsbury is as good as gone. I wish we could resign him because as much as love Jackie Bradley I have some suspicions about his being able to hit ML pitching consistently, and he certainly isn't going to be the speed burner on the bases that Jacoby is. Still, we have to face reality and hope JB is more than up to it and become a stalwart for the Red Sox because Ells will fly the coop this winter.

 

Bradley's not as fast as Ellsbury, but he's still pretty damn fast. Defensively, he's better. On the basepaths, I expect there to be a learning curve just like there was with Ellsbury.

[sk7326]

In my opinion sk7, Ellsbury is as good as gone. I wish we could resign him because as much as love Jackie Bradley I have some suspicions about his being able to hit ML pitching consistently, and he certainly isn't going to be the speed burner on the bases that Jacoby is. Still, we have to face reality and hope JB is more than up to it and become a stalwart for the Red Sox because Ells will fly the coop this winter.

 

Bradley has had precious few at-bats above AA. The spring hype was both silly (for his 2013 output) and justified (for his promise in general). You look at his approach at the plate and it's super advanced. He has shown potential to be a plus-plus defender in center field. The power will be fine. The baserunning will not be as amazing. That said, the marginal value of a 70 SB guy is not that high. I think Ellsbury will get 5/75 somewhere. Quality CFs in an industry drowning in cash.

[marklmw]

Bradley has had precious few at-bats above AA. The spring hype was both silly (for his 2013 output) and justified (for his promise in general). You look at his approach at the plate and it's super advanced. He has shown potential to be a plus-plus defender in center field. The power will be fine. The baserunning will not be as amazing. That said, the marginal value of a 70 SB guy is not that high. I think Ellsbury will get 5/75 somewhere. Quality CFs in an industry drowning in cash.

 

Are you telling me that the Sox will not fork over 5/75 for Ellsbury. Compare Ellsbury's numbers to other lead off hitters in MLB and you will find that he is a very valuable player ... especially if he plays for a team with a pitcher's ballpark. SB's do not seem like a big deal in a hitter's park but in a pitchers park with lot's of one rruns games they are.

[Bellhorn04]

Are you telling me that the Sox will not fork over 5/75 for Ellsbury. Compare Ellsbury's numbers to other lead off hitters in MLB and you will find that he is a very valuable player ... especially if he plays for a team with a pitcher's ballpark. SB's do not seem like a big deal in a hitter's park but in a pitchers park with lot's of one rruns games they are.

 

5/75 won't be enough. Boras has a number in mind that starts with a 1.

[Orange Juiced]

If 5/75 was what would get Ellsbury done, I think the Sox would definitely do that. I don't think that will be sufficient, though. Someone will pay a lot more than that, I think. I'm thinking like 6/108 or something. And for that, I wouldn't sign him.

[redsoxrules]

Ellsbury has 4 HR , let me say this again 4 HR.

Aside from his 2011 season he has not reached 10 HR in a season. I wouldn't throw too much money at a CF who can't hit for power.

[seabeachfred]

Ellsbury has 4 HR , let me say this again 4 HR.

Aside from his 2011 season he has not reached 10 HR in a season. I wouldn't throw too much money at a CF who can't hit for power.

 

You wouldn't but someone else would. The CFs in FA last winter made out pretty damn well and Ellsbury is at least as good as any of them are. Some team will throw the kitchen sink at him. There's always one or two teams swimming in cash that will take a leap of faith. In the meantime, where do we get two outstanding starting pitchers that we're going to need very badly if we ever want to see a WS again from anyplace besides a television? We don't any to speak off in our farm system-----not ONE who projects as anything but a No. 3.------Maybe Henry Owens.

[carolinapianoman]

I think it was a good move. Is there risk involved? Yes, but I think it sends a statement that Pedroia is their long term leader and the face of the franchise. The only bummer so far is he is in a slump since signing that deal!

[sk7326]

Ellsbury has 4 HR , let me say this again 4 HR.

Aside from his 2011 season he has not reached 10 HR in a season. I wouldn't throw too much money at a CF who can't hit for power.

 

His 2011 season with the 30 homeruns - he was probably the MVP, and definitely the MVP among position players. If he did THAT every year, he could write his own check. If he could give 140 games of THIS SEASON, that is a 5 win sort of player, and that is really really valuable - easily worth a 15-20M a year number in today's environment. He is one of the best CFs in the American League this year. Problem is he has not been able to put the number of games together consistently.

 

The SBs are valuable - it's nice to have them. But getting on base far out-trumps the other stuff ... he could be that valuable as a 30 SB guy. The future risk with a guy like him is that as a 30 year old, how long will it be before he has to move to a corner, and if he does can his bat still play? Both of those are open questions - let alone the durability one.

[User Name]

You wouldn't but someone else would. The CFs in FA last winter made out pretty damn well and Ellsbury is at least as good as any of them are. Some team will throw the kitchen sink at him. There's always one or two teams swimming in cash that will take a leap of faith. In the meantime, where do we get two outstanding starting pitchers that we're going to need very badly if we ever want to see a WS again from anyplace besides a television? We don't any to speak off in our farm system-----not ONE who projects as anything but a No. 3.------Maybe Henry Owens.

 

Fred, where do you get the idea that no one in the farm system projects as any more than a #3? Because several scouting reports have Owens, Barnes and Webster with #1 or #2 ceilings. I would like to see where you got this information.

[Standing Room]

Fred, where do you get the idea that no one in the farm system projects as any more than a #3? Because several scouting reports have Owens, Barnes and Webster with #1 or #2 ceilings. I would like to see where you got this information.

 

The same place he gets all his information - he just makes it up as he goes along.

[mvp 78]

Alzheimer's, it's a hell of a drug.

[a700hitter]

I'd be ecstatic if Webster/Rubby or Renaudo progress to being productive members of the rotation. I wouldn't hold my breath about any of them being a #1 or 2.

[User Name]

Owens is the one with the higher upside according to current reports, followed by Barnes and the Webster. Then again, prospects are fickle, and it's pretty much a crapshoot. However, there's no denying that their stuff is top notch. Stuff doesn't always translate to success though, and he mental aspect of the game is a roadblock many prospects with elite talent fail to clear.

[sk7326]

Clearly, one underrates the value of #3 pitchers. The Sox down the stretch in 2011, and most of last year had a ton of trouble scrounging up #3 starters. A #3 starter (assuming we have the same definition of a #1 starter - there might be 10 of those in the league) can play a decade in the bigs and deliver 180-200 innings. If these guys can get to a #3 level, that'd be success. Frankly, Ranaudo and Barnes probably are looking at that sort of ceiling. Owens has a lot more, but he also is far away from the show and has not actually thrown a ton of strikes - his potential is all projection. Trey Ball is even more projection, but also not eligible to be traded except as a PTBNL. Webster has more probability - although his ceiling is debatable. For a ground ball pitcher he gave up a lot of homeruns in his show starts. But he definitely can be a useful starter. De La Rosa might have more ceiling.

 

Sox could use another starter - but if you look at their 3-4 record since the break, they have scored a combined 3 runs in the 4 losses. The pitching has been relatively good, just have run into some buzz-saws. Kuroda, Moore, Price and Tillman are 4 of the best in the AL. Not a ton of shame in those losses.

[BigPapi]

Exactly. In 8 years, $13.75mm AAV for a 2B is going to be average pay.

 

Agreed, we did steal him. Even though lately he hasnt been himself at the plate,

[marklmw]

Fred, where do you get the idea that no one in the farm system projects as any more than a #3? Because several scouting reports have Owens, Barnes and Webster with #1 or #2 ceilings. I would like to see where you got this information.

 

I would like to see the scouting report that has Barnes and Webster as 1's or 2's ... can you share that link?

[marklmw]

I'd be ecstatic if Webster/Rubby or Renaudo progress to being productive members of the rotation. I wouldn't hold my breath about any of them being a #1 or 2.

 

California Dreaming .... Pure Fantasy!

[User Name]

I would like to see the scouting report that has Barnes and Webster as 1's or 2's ... can you share that link?

 

Do you know what the "ceiling" of a prospect is? I'd like to read the answer of that question before i make any effort to look for anything.

[User Name]

California Dreaming .... Pure Fantasy!

 

More plausible than Jacoby Ellsbury being the second best CF in baseball, but i digress.

[marklmw]

Do you know what the "ceiling" of a prospect is? I'd like to read the answer of that question before i make any effort to look for anything.

 

Yeah, most scouting reports use ceiling when they discuss a players prospects. They usually do not say that this guy has the potential to be a 5th starting or long relief. If you do come up with your scouting report projecting any of the players you mention to be a 1 or 2 without a doubt they are talking ceiling not floor.

[User Name]

Yeah, most scouting reports use ceiling when they discuss a players prospects. They usually do not say that this guy has the potential to be a 5th starting or long relief. If you do come up with your scouting report projecting any of the players you mention to be a 1 or 2 without a doubt they are talking ceiling not floor.

 

It's almost impossible to find a scouting report projecting a guy as a 1 or 2 "without a doubt", but depending on the guy they will give a higher floor and higher ceiling.

 

If you do a quick search for "scouting reports" for Webster, Barnes and Owens, the more current ones usually give Webster a #3, #4 floor with a #2 ceiling, Barnes a #3 floor with a #2 ceiling, and Owens a #3 floor with a #1 ceiling. What i can't find again are John Sickel's grade assignments for the three of them (or any other prospect for that matter) which were posted to over the monster. Sickels gives Barnes and Owens a B+ while Webster gets a B but makes the comment that the grade is liable to improve if he can improve his command a bit more.

[Behindenemylines]

Back to the topic at hand:

 

I think Pedroia would hold up better than Ellsbury over a long term deal, but the reality is that signing one should not preclude the Red Sox from signing the other if they so desire.

 

But i Ellsbury really worth a 100+ million dollar contract? Pedroia is, regardless of length.

 

I think Boras is going to want a larger contract for Ellsbury then what Pedroia got. The Sox I think aren't going to offer him more so he will be playing else where next season, unless Ellsbury really wants to stay and cans Boras as his agent (Like Cano did) and doesn't try breaking the bank. I don't think that happens even though a Bradley - Ellsbury - Victorino outfield would be outstanding defensively.

[User Name]

Cano probably canned Boras because of the promise of more money, not a desire to stay in pinstripes. Had that been the reason he fired Boras, he'd have already signed an extension.

[sk7326]

Ellsbury is worth the money if he could repeat this year for the next 5-6. Chances are, he won't. His durability has not supported it, and if he cannot play CF the duration of the deal, his value goes down a ton.

[dupree]

I think Ellsbury comes back next year and signs early even with Boras as his agent. I think if the Red Sox go far in the postseason and if they win it all he will definitely be back. The front office love him and even with Bradley waiting in the wings i still seeing him coming back to Boston. Some where around Peedy's deal is more like what he will get. If he had a 20+ HRs he'd want a blockbuster contract but him prolly only showing power of about 10+/- HRs he wont be recieving a 20M per year contract.

 

An outfield of Bradley Ells and Vic next year would be terrific next year. With Nava, Gomes, and Carp filling in.

[seabeachfred]

Fred, where do you get the idea that no one in the farm system projects as any more than a #3? Because several scouting reports have Owens, Barnes and Webster with #1 or #2 ceilings. I would like to see where you got this information.

 

Well in one case you only need your eyes to get all the proof your need. Webster has be as bad as smell on s***. He gets routinely pummeled every time he starts a game for us, and he also seems to have a rough time making adjustments. Notice they are not starting him anymore? IMO he is not going to be anything but a guy with a great arm who can't seem to get people out. Barnes? He has been good but he has been bad as well and his progress has slowed the last year or so. He is doing little more than showing scouts that he is a No. type at best. I know one Red Sox scout out here where I live and two Rays scouts, one my daughter's God Father, the other one of my closest friends of whom I'm the Godfather of his son. They believe that. They also have a high regard for Henry Owens who is from Huntington Beach in So. Cal. I think he's the one to watch and both those gentlemen think the same.

[seabeachfred]

Alzheimer's, it's a hell of a drug.

 

Read my last post stupid!!!!!!

[User Name]

Well in one case you only need your eyes to get all the proof your need. Webster has be as bad as smell on s***. He gets routinely pummeled every time he starts a game for us, and he also seems to have a rough time making adjustments. Notice they are not starting him anymore? IMO he is not going to be anything but a guy with a great arm who can't seem to get people out. Barnes? He has been good but he has been bad as well and his progress has slowed the last year or so. He is doing little more than showing scouts that he is a No. type at best. I know one Red Sox scout out here where I live and two Rays scouts, one my daughter's God Father, the other one of my closest friends of whom I'm the Godfather of his son. They believe that. They also have a high regard for Henry Owens who is from Huntington Beach in So. Cal. I think he's the one to watch and both those gentlemen think the same.

 

So what you're saying is that there's one guy who has a higher than #3 ceiling, and two guys for whom you have anecdotal account that says they may not be more than a #3, but not enough data to back up that assertion clearly . Okay.

Edited July 29, 2013 by User Name?

[mvp 78]

Read my last post stupid!!!!!!

 

When my grammy had alzheimer's, she'd have violent episodes too. I'll pray for you!