Lester's Future

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester is probably getting traded in the offseason

[SoxSport]

Lester and Buchholz are still critical to the teams' success this year. If both can get going, and Lackey stays hot, they will be tough to beat 2nd half.

[Orange Juiced]

Lester is probably getting traded in the offseason

 

I would think it more likely they accept his $13 million option for 2014 than he gets traded.

[a700hitter]

I would think it more likely they accept his $13 million option for 2014 than he gets traded.

A one year commitment at $13 million is not a big deal even if he doesn't turn his game around. Someone in the rotation will need to get traded if they want to give one of the kids a chance next season. I don't know who that will be.

[Standing Room]

If the Red Sox could get anything of value for Lester, I'd trade him in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, I think that ship may have sailed. He's not a bad #5 starter, and there's relatively little risk in a one year deal. But if Lester keeps losing velocity, he cold implode at any time.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yup. He could be a very good fit for a NL Central team, a la Burnett. Or an NL West team, I bet the Dodgers would be very interested to be honest.

[dupree]

I honestly hope Lester can turn things around after the Break. He has the potential to be a top tier lefty pitcher like he once was. I know the velocity is down but im not gonna write him off yet. I dont think trading him is the answer. I also think alot of posters are eager to write off a player and look for options elsewhere, those are the same people who said get rid of Bailey look how hes turned it around. I myself wanted Bailey gone and now it seems im eating my words. But i hope Lester can bounch back and a healthy Buch and a Lackey and Doubrant and a consistent Dempster can get us another World Series ring. I think a starter does need to be added at the deadline but i dont think Lester needs to be traded for another pitcher to come in. A starter for a prospect or two is definitely in my mind a must, because injuries do happen and if this team is all in to win it all I think the rotation has to be looked at. Think of Tim Lincecum last year, he had a horrible year so they stuck him in the pen and he was magic and helped the Giants secure another Series . Maybe thats what Lester needs its just a thought. But look what Tim Lincecum has done this year he was written off last year and tonite he is thrown a nohitter thru 8. I think Lester can turn it around and be the Ace of old.

[Standing Room]

It's been what, nearly two years now since he was a top of the rotation starter? He was never a control pitcher. He was always a guy who relied on strikeouts, so I'm not sure how he's going to get back to the type of pitcher he was without the ability to be a power pitcher anymore. I wouldn't trade Lester right now, he has value as a #5 starter and you can never have enough pitching. In the offseason, I would definitely trade him if we got anything valuable. Because we can replace him with a free agent.

[User Name]

In 2008, Lester's (arguably) best season, he posted a very pedestrian (6.5) K rate with pretty much league average BABIP and strand rate. So it's not necessarily strikeout reliance. In my opinion, it's all in the loss of velocity and in his head. He still throws hard enough to not have to nibble, so why does he?

[Standing Room]

Lester appears to have gotten lucky with his home run rate (lowest of his career) that year. His xFIP was over 4 and there's no reasonable explanation for it such as his decline velocity the last two years. He also had the lowest walk rate of his career, something he's not doing anymore.

[User Name]

Yeah but that's certainly a limitation of xFip, which i like, but is not always reflective of the effectiveness of certain pitcher's skillset. Per xFIP, Lester was better in 2012 and has been better this year than he was in 2008, mostly because of K rate, and the normalization of HR rate, that is the reason why his xFIP was so high relative to his ERA too. I think both of us know that the 2008 version of Lester was better than the current version, even though the 2008 Lester actually had lower velocity than he does now.

 

I think that instead of immediately assuming that he got lucky with homers, we should instead look at the difference in Lester's pitch sequence and pitching habits. He's constantly behind in the count in the innings where he gives up big run totals. I know it's observation, but so many people talking about Lester's tendency to nibble and eroding command can't be wrong. Most of the problem is in his head.

Edited July 14, 2013 by User Name?

[a700hitter]

I don't know what is wrong with the guy, but it has been broken since September 2011. He's not a top of the rotation pitcher. In the playoffs if we get there, Buch starts game 1, Lackey game 2. Game 3 is up for grabs.

[User Name]

Right now it'd be Doubront.

[a700hitter]

Right now it'd be Doubront.

Yes, with Dempster being available in relief if Doubs runs his pitch count to 100 after 4 innings.

[User Name]

The nice thing about Doubront is that even when he's out after 4-5 innings, he's not really a "complete meltdown" kind of guy. You'll usually see him exiting after giving up two-three runs but having thrown close to 100 pitches.

[a700hitter]

The nice thing about Doubront is that even when he's out after 4-5 innings, he's not really a "complete meltdown" kind of guy. You'll usually see him exiting after giving up two-three runs but having thrown close to 100 pitches.

Doubs has done his job this year. I hope he holds up in the second half.

[mvp 78]

Lester is past his expiration date. He's not getting better. Doubs still has yet to reach his ceiling.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester's FB velo per fangraphs is pretty much the same as last yr. I think the guy could thrive with a change of scenery

[User Name]

Last year he had horrible home stats and excellent road stats. This year he has excellent home stats and horrible away stats. Dafuq?

[Behindenemylines]

Don't think the Sox make the playoffs if they can't straighten Lester out. He seems to be throwing the ball as hard as in the past so it has to be above the shoulders problem.

[jung]

I would question the Sox getting there with Lester like this AND no Buch. The longer this ridiculous thing with Buch goes the more at risk the ability for Buch to come back and be what he was earlier in the year.

 

It is getting to the point now where he has lost so much time that it will be like starting from scratch when he does come back. When you are idle so long that you have to regain your arm strength just to pitch you are starting from scratch. Nobody goes through that process and comes out the same way. Since there is no way he could be better than he was at the start of the year, there is only one other way for that to go.

 

I for one take no comfort in the comments now from Buch himself that he could pitch if he had to. Well then pitch,,,,WIMP!

Edited July 16, 2013 by jung

[User Name]

Yeah it's pretty easy to call an injured player a wimp from the comfort of your couch there jung.

[Thunder]

Yeah it's pretty easy to call an injured player a wimp from the comfort of your couch there jung.

 

Yes. I know this from experience. Earlier this spring when a fastball got me in the elbow and I was out for a few games, a fat parent/fan (not sure which) called me a wimp. If a ball hit him in the elbow, he wouldn't feel anything, so he can't call me a wimp because he doesn't know how much at hurts. And boy did it hurt like hell. I wore a Jonny Gomes elbow pad the first few games after I came back.

[a700hitter]

Yes. I know this from experience. Earlier this spring when a fastball got me in the elbow and I was out for a few games, a fat parent/fan (not sure which) called me a wimp. If a ball hit him in the elbow, he wouldn't feel anything, so he can't call me a wimp because he doesn't know how much at hurts. And boy did it hurt like hell. I wore a Jonny Gomes elbow pad the first few games after I came back.

Wimp.

[User Name]

Yes. I know this from experience. Earlier this spring when a fastball got me in the elbow and I was out for a few games, a fat parent/fan (not sure which) called me a wimp. If a ball hit him in the elbow, he wouldn't feel anything, so he can't call me a wimp because he doesn't know how much at hurts. And boy did it hurt like hell. I wore a Jonny Gomes elbow pad the first few games after I came back.

 

Oblique injuries. I remember someone telling me "it can't hurt that bad". Ummmm, yes it can. You can't even take a deep breath without it hurting.

[jung]

Look the guy (Buch) admits he can pitch! So he can pitch but has resisted pitching all the way to the point where he now has to rebuild the strength back in his arm!!! You have got to be f***ing kidding me. "So he does not pitch so as to not risk his season cause he does not want to pitch unless he is 100%. I guess that is the reason??? That is also what he is now saying. He has already risked his season due to inactivity!

 

How long is the off-season. If you pitch into October, the off-season is 2.5 months long before pitchers are throwing in ST. He is now going to be off for 2 months at least. Please don't tell me those long tosses amount to anything. He has not been on a mound in 2 months and that will now be at the minimum. I would suggest that since he now has to rebuild his arm strength as in start from scratch, the chance that he comes back as strong and as capable as he was at the start of the season are somewhere between slim and none. So when that happens you guys can tell me again how that has worked out for us. But remember when that happens that Buch himself is saying he could have pitched. The mistake in my view was not in pushing him to max pitch counts while he was struggling with his whatever. The mistake was shutting him down completely when he could have pitched because his season is officially shot now.

[User Name]

He said that he's not 100%, but would pitch in an elimination game if need. Remember Beckett in 2008? That's probably what we're talking about, and it limited him to the point where he was a shell of himself. You don't know exactly what's wrong with Buchholz jung, and most of your opinion is based on guesswork and inference.

[Bellhorn04]

Look the guy (Buch) admits he can pitch! So he can pitch but has resisted pitching all the way to the point where he now has to rebuild the strength back in his arm!!! You have got to be f***ing kidding me. "So he does not pitch so as to not risk his season cause he does not want to pitch unless he is 100%. I guess that is the reason??? That is also what he is now saying. He has already risked his season due to inactivity!

 

How long is the off-season. If you pitch into October, the off-season is 2.5 months long before pitchers are throwing in ST. He is now going to be off for 2 months at least. Please don't tell me those long tosses amount to anything. He has not been on a mound in 2 months and that will now be at the minimum. I would suggest that since he now has to rebuild his arm strength as in start from scratch, the chance that he comes back as strong and as capable as he was at the start of the season are somewhere between slim and none. So when that happens you guys can tell me again how that has worked out for us. But remember when that happens that Buch himself is saying he could have pitched. The mistake in my view was not in pushing him to max pitch counts while he was struggling with his whatever. The mistake was shutting him down completely when he could have pitched because his season is officially shot now.

 

jung, calm down, man...this is just ranting.

[mvp 78]

It's the regular season. There's no reason to throw Buch out there if he's not 100%, especially when they are in first damn place.

[a700hitter]

Look the guy (Buch) admits he can pitch! So he can pitch but has resisted pitching all the way to the point where he now has to rebuild the strength back in his arm!!! You have got to be f***ing kidding me. "So he does not pitch so as to not risk his season cause he does not want to pitch unless he is 100%. I guess that is the reason??? That is also what he is now saying. He has already risked his season due to inactivity!

 

How long is the off-season. If you pitch into October, the off-season is 2.5 months long before pitchers are throwing in ST. He is now going to be off for 2 months at least. Please don't tell me those long tosses amount to anything. He has not been on a mound in 2 months and that will now be at the minimum. I would suggest that since he now has to rebuild his arm strength as in start from scratch, the chance that he comes back as strong and as capable as he was at the start of the season are somewhere between slim and none. So when that happens you guys can tell me again how that has worked out for us. But remember when that happens that Buch himself is saying he could have pitched. The mistake in my view was not in pushing him to max pitch counts while he was struggling with his whatever. The mistake was shutting him down completely when he could have pitched because his season is officially shot now.

They have been so overly cautious with him that they probably ruined his season. Now, as you point out, he needs to build himself up. He will return to the mond without the arm strength and stamina that he should have at mid-season. It's a recipe for another injury. I remember in 2008 when Beckett had the tingling in his fingers and he missed a month and a half or so. He went to every specialist who cleared him to pitch. They built him a special contraption to sleep with so he wouldn't sleep on his arm. After he finally got over the mental hurdle that he was in fact healthy, he returned to the mound and he had lost arm strength. At first he got bombed, then after one or two more starts, he tore his oblique and ruined our post season. The oblique was completely unrelated to the sleeping injury. He was useless in that post season. These stupid sleeping injuries can ruin your season.