Lester's Future

[Rdsxmbnt]

Lester has one more year on his contract after this season at 13 mil.

 

So the questions for discussion:

 

1) Should the Red Sox explore a trade in the offseason? James Shields who I would say is a fairly comparable pitcher, netted the Rays a consensus top 5 prospect (Myers) and another guy Odorizzi who was a top 50 prospect by some rating sites. Quite the haul for a 30 year old pitcher.

 

2) Should they extend him? He's due for quite a pay raise and the first year of his contract will be his age 31 season. Grienke got 6/159 but is probably a tier above Lester in pitcher quality. Anibal Sanchez got 5/88 and is probably a notch below Lester. I think Lester is due for at least 5 or 6 years at 100 or more. Do we want him at that price?

[Youk Of The Nation]

Give him whatever he wants, up to and including the firstborn children of any Red Sox FO members and the severed head of the Minotaur.

[User Name]

Not a fan of 100 million contracts for pitchers. If they can't get him for 5/85 or less, trade him in the offseason.

[Thunder]

Even with Buchholz's Cy Young worthy season, I still think that Lester is the ace of this staff. No way Cherington lets him go.

[Palodios]

Not a fan of 100 million contracts for pitchers. If they can't get him for 5/85 or less, trade him in the offseason.

 

The problem is there aren't any pitchers available who are even remotely close to his value on the free agent market in 2014. Garza, Johnson, Burnett, Hughes and Feldman won't be able to fill his innings. If the Red Sox trade for a pitcher, they hurt their future by trading away pitching prospects. I doubt they make the playoffs in 2014 without him.

 

Its a no-win situation. Signing him 6+ years will end up being a mistake, but trading him before 2014 will also hurt the team. Maybe waiting till the 2014 deadline makes the most sense-- a desperate NL team might be willing to give two top 100s for him.

[a700hitter]

The problem is there aren't any pitchers available who are even remotely close to his value on the free agent market in 2014. Garza, Johnson, Burnett, Hughes and Feldman won't be able to fill his innings. If the Red Sox trade for a pitcher, they hurt their future by trading away pitching prospects. I doubt they make the playoffs in 2014 without him.

 

Its a no-win situation. Signing him 6+ years will end up being a mistake, but trading him before 2014 will also hurt the team. Maybe waiting till the 2014 deadline makes the most sense-- a desperate NL team might be willing to give two top 100s for him.

Most teams are retaining their top pitchers, even small and middle market teams. I agree that they don't have much of a choice, and the contract would be ugly. It's just the state of the game with regard to pitching. It's at a ridiculously high premium.

[User Name]

The problem is there aren't any pitchers available who are even remotely close to his value on the free agent market in 2014. Garza, Johnson, Burnett, Hughes and Feldman won't be able to fill his innings. If the Red Sox trade for a pitcher, they hurt their future by trading away pitching prospects. I doubt they make the playoffs in 2014 without him.

 

Its a no-win situation. Signing him 6+ years will end up being a mistake, but trading him before 2014 will also hurt the team. Maybe waiting till the 2014 deadline makes the most sense-- a desperate NL team might be willing to give two top 100s for him.

 

If he keeps regressing, we'll all be left wondering if a significant pitching prospect or two could've been obtained by trading Lester.

[Orange Juiced]

I think Lester would net a pretty serious haul. He's a terrific pitcher and being a lefty makes him even more desirable. I think in many ways it all depends on how the development of Webster and Ranaudo and Barnes goes (first two especially). If by the end of this season they're convinced that those guys could step in and be solid major league contributors, then they might be ok. Especially if Doubront develops into a legit #3 starter. Let's say Webster is ready for prime time next year. They could enter 2014 with this rotation: Buchholz (who might be a CYA winner), Lackey (having a terrific season), Dempster, Doubront, and Webster.

 

That would be a pretty good rotation, assuming, of course, that Doubront and Webster are ready to step up. It would be much cheaper, and they'd add a really nice piece or two in any deal for Lester.

 

This next offseason I'd love to see them trade Lester, a minor league OF (Brentz?), and another 1b type bat (Alamanzar?) to Arizona in exchange for Paul Goldschmidt and pitching prospect Archie Bradley.

 

Arizona could use a good OF prospect and Lester would give them an incredible rotation of Lester, Kennedy, Cahill, Corbin, and Miley. The Sox would get a power-hitting 1b for the next half-decade or more (Goldschmidt is nice) and a top pitching prospect.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Red Sox have a $13mm club option for 2014. They'll certainly exercise that, then assess where they are at in terms of prospects going into 2015.

 

By 2015, guys like RDLR, Barnes, Webster, and Ranaudo will all be ready to be inserted into the rotation, if they stay on track. Plus, Henry Owens will likely have a year of AA under his belt, and will provide a lot of depth.

 

I think they'll let Lester walk after the 2014 season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think Lester would net a pretty serious haul. He's a terrific pitcher and being a lefty makes him even more desirable. I think in many ways it all depends on how the development of Webster and Ranaudo and Barnes goes (first two especially). If by the end of this season they're convinced that those guys could step in and be solid major league contributors, then they might be ok. Especially if Doubront develops into a legit #3 starter. Let's say Webster is ready for prime time next year. They could enter 2014 with this rotation: Buchholz (who might be a CYA winner), Lackey (having a terrific season), Dempster, Doubront, and Webster.

 

That would be a pretty good rotation, assuming, of course, that Doubront and Webster are ready to step up. It would be much cheaper, and they'd add a really nice piece or two in any deal for Lester.

 

This next offseason I'd love to see them trade Lester, a minor league OF (Brentz?), and another 1b type bat (Alamanzar?) to Arizona in exchange for Paul Goldschmidt and pitching prospect Archie Bradley.

 

Arizona could use a good OF prospect and Lester would give them an incredible rotation of Lester, Kennedy, Cahill, Corbin, and Miley. The Sox would get a power-hitting 1b for the next half-decade or more (Goldschmidt is nice) and a top pitching prospect.

 

No way the DBacks trade Goldschmidt for 1 year of Lester.

[BSN07]

I agree for the most part with UN, if it's a Weaver type deal then fine, if he wants 100M + let him walk. I love Lester but I don't think giving any pitcher 100M for their 30-35 years is a good idea. I think they should go to him this off season, find out what it's gonna take and make their choice. If he's signable do it, if he's not cash in and trade him. If he continues the rest of the season as he is now he will be worth likely more the Shields being a LHP.

[jung]

Seems to me that at the rate he is going everybody including the Sox are going to be in the same place on Jon. They will all be looking at a pitcher that is more cutter happy than ever who will likely have lost a little more on his FB by then. Hitters are hitting his FB more and getting it in the air more. Jon is throwing it when he can locate it but appears to be losing confidence in his ability to get hitters out with it. When he can't locate it, he throws the cutter at an even higher percentage than usual. By varying degrees he is slowly but surely throwing all of his secondary pitches other than the Cutter less with his FB usage changing significantly up or down depending on his ability to locate it. Hitters are missing his Cutter less over time as well which would seem to indicate that they are expecting it more. I don't like the way the dif in velo on his FB and his Cutter is narrowing. If Jon misses with the Cutter when the hitter was expecting FB, it makes the Cutter an easier pitch to hit as it just ends up looking like a poorly thrown FB.

 

His Curve has been a very reliable pitch for him but I think it benefits from being utilized judiciously. It is clearly a set up pitch for him.

 

Anyway I think teams including the Sox will believe they have seen the best Jon has to offer and will consider his ability to eat innings his most endearing quality when the time comes. It would appear that he will be a cut above the Dempsters of the world but might be a cut below somebody like Lackey if Lackey continues on the path he appears to be on. Lester is just becoming more and more predictable over time I fear and I don't think there is an answer out there for him at this point.

 

None of that would suggest Jon is headed for the scrap heap. I just don't think teams will be looking at Jon in terms of $20M per for 5 years or something like that. If it has to be 5 years then I would think the number might be something like $15-$17 per. If Jon is interested in max money per, then maybe $20 per on a 3 year deal.

[redsoxbeatz]

BLAH BLAH BLAH

 

Let's see Lester finish the season!! He is going through a rough patch right now but I bet he turns it around.

[Orange Juiced]

No way the DBacks trade Goldschmidt for 1 year of Lester.

 

The assumption I was making was that Arizona would be given a window to negotiate an extension for Lester, and that they'd want to do that. I should have made that clear though. My bad.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Red Sox have been pretty spot on with their contract deals for pitching, IMO. Rarely are they giving the "franchise savior" deal to a pitcher. Lester on the open market will get a 6+ yr deal. Plus, after 2014, Lester will be 31. A 6 yr deal takes him to 37, and with all the pitching this guy has done, will likely entail him losing his velo early on in that deal. Also, the warning flags are still there on Lester. Even though his ERA has improved, his K rate is still low for his standards and his FB velo is 1.3mph off from his peak in 2009. I honestly think the sox are going to definitely ride it out this yr, then consider dealing him in the off-season. If they don't get a deal to their liking, they'll let him reach FA and take the pick. A guy like Lester on a 6 yr deal starting in 2015 is a disaster waiting to happen

[User Name]

BLAH BLAH BLAH

 

Let's see Lester finish the season!! He is going through a rough patch right now but I bet he turns it around.

 

So we can't present our ideas on what could/should happen to a Red Sox player on a Red Sox website?

[BornToRun]

The assumption I was making was that Arizona would be given a window to negotiate an extension for Lester, and that they'd want to do that. I should have made that clear though. My bad.

 

No way in hell Arizona deals Goldie for Lester. They just locked him up and he's keeping up with Joey Votto numbers wise.

[Palodios]

If he keeps regressing, we'll all be left wondering if a significant pitching prospect or two could've been obtained by trading Lester.

 

I think because of what we saw last year, we're overly concerned with his regression. His strikeouts may be down this year, but so are his walks. And with that, he's pitching more innings per game than in any other season. I just don't think its worth dumping him unless they get a top 5 pitching prospect + another top 100 guy.

 

Besides David Price and Cliff Lee, there won't be anyone remotely close to his talent level available in the forseable future.

[BSN07]

I think because of what we saw last year, we're overly concerned with his regression. His strikeouts may be down this year, but so are his walks. And with that, he's pitching more innings per game than in any other season. I just don't think its worth dumping him unless they get a top 5 pitching prospect + another top 100 guy.

 

Besides David Price and Cliff Lee, there won't be anyone remotely close to his talent level available in the forseable future.

 

Why do they have to replace him with a free agent? It is possible to replace from within the organization. They have probably 4-6 guys near or MLB ready by the end of 2014. I don't think it's hard to believe one of them could step into replace Lester as well as Dempster. This is why drafting and developing SP is so important. You don't have to worry about who's gonna be available on the open market.

[jung]

Unless the Sox do end up with an abundance of starting pitching, the price for Lester might be such that they can keep him. Only reason to move him would be cause they do have better options and more options within the organization. I would think that less likely, not more likely. Hurray for us if that is the case. But, you can never have enough pitching.

[BSN07]

Unless the Sox do end up with an abundance of starting pitching, the price for Lester might be such that they can keep him. Only reason to move him would be cause they do have better options and more options within the organization. I would think that less likely, not more likely. Hurray for us if that is the case. But, you can never have enough pitching.

 

It's gonna be on Lester. I think the Sox will come up with an offer and if he wants more they will let him walk, collect a pick, save the money and move on.

[Palodios]

Why do they have to replace him with a free agent? It is possible to replace from within the organization. They have probably 4-6 guys near or MLB ready by the end of 2014. I don't think it's hard to believe one of them could step into replace Lester as well as Dempster. This is why drafting and developing SP is so important. You don't have to worry about who's gonna be available on the open market.

 

2015 is one thing, but do you think any of those guys will be ready to replace him at the end of 2013? We're talking about a rock who gives 200 innings of low-to-mid 3's ERA every single season despite pitching half his games at Fenway. Webster is the best of the bunch, and he probably needs more time.

 

They need to either hold onto him long enough to have a good 2014, sign him for reasonable money, or trade him for the best they can get. There is a tough balance, and I don't like many of the options.

[BSN07]

2015 is one thing, but do you think any of those guys will be ready to replace him at the end of 2013? We're talking about a rock who gives 200 innings of low-to-mid 3's ERA every single season despite pitching half his games at Fenway. Webster is the best of the bunch, and he probably needs more time.

 

They need to either hold onto him long enough to have a good 2014, sign him for reasonable money, or trade him for the best they can get. There is a tough balance, and I don't like many of the options.

 

The end of 2013 would be a stretch, I admit that. But Webster would probably be close.

[a700hitter]

The end of 2013 would be a stretch, I admit that. But Webster would probably be close.

I think that he has hit a rough stretch at Pawtucket since his last MLB start.

[Standing Room]

The Red Sox have been pretty spot on with their contract deals for pitching, IMO. Rarely are they giving the "franchise savior" deal to a pitcher. Lester on the open market will get a 6+ yr deal. Plus, after 2014, Lester will be 31. A 6 yr deal takes him to 37, and with all the pitching this guy has done, will likely entail him losing his velo early on in that deal. Also, the warning flags are still there on Lester. Even though his ERA has improved, his K rate is still low for his standards and his FB velo is 1.3mph off from his peak in 2009. I honestly think the sox are going to definitely ride it out this yr, then consider dealing him in the off-season. If they don't get a deal to their liking, they'll let him reach FA and take the pick. A guy like Lester on a 6 yr deal starting in 2015 is a disaster waiting to happen

 

Spot on. Lester velocity and peripherals are continuing to trend downwards. And with the new draft system, draft picks are more important than ever. The next year and a half should give the Red Sox plenty of time to develop Webster, De La Rosa, Ranaudo or Workman in to a major league caliber starting pitcher. If not, there are a lot of qualiy starting pitchers who will be free agents in 2015.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Red Sox have been pretty spot on with their contract deals for pitching, IMO. Rarely are they giving the "franchise savior" deal to a pitcher. Lester on the open market will get a 6+ yr deal. Plus, after 2014, Lester will be 31. A 6 yr deal takes him to 37, and with all the pitching this guy has done, will likely entail him losing his velo early on in that deal. Also, the warning flags are still there on Lester. Even though his ERA has improved, his K rate is still low for his standards and his FB velo is 1.3mph off from his peak in 2009. I honestly think the sox are going to definitely ride it out this yr, then consider dealing him in the off-season. If they don't get a deal to their liking, they'll let him reach FA and take the pick. A guy like Lester on a 6 yr deal starting in 2015 is a disaster waiting to happen

 

I hate to admit it, but this exactly right.

 

Outside of Beckett (and, to a lesser degree, Lackey), the Sox haven't made any big mistakes with their SP. But I think they've also learned from their mistake with Beckett, and that is to not sign pitchers on the wrong side of 30 to long term deals.

 

If the Sox do trade Lester, they'll have to get back a Shields-esque return (i.e. a top 20 prospect, close to the MLB).

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Sox decided to dish Lester, and then package that prospect up with another 1-2 high level guys (Cecchini, Webster, Barnes, type, or even Middlebrooks, if Bogaerts looks ready and they believe in Iglesias) in a deal for a guy like Stanton. Just depends on who they can get in return for Lester.

[SoxFanForsyth]

2015 is one thing, but do you think any of those guys will be ready to replace him at the end of 2013? We're talking about a rock who gives 200 innings of low-to-mid 3's ERA every single season despite pitching half his games at Fenway. Webster is the best of the bunch, and he probably needs more time.

 

They need to either hold onto him long enough to have a good 2014, sign him for reasonable money, or trade him for the best they can get. There is a tough balance, and I don't like many of the options.

 

Not sure Webster will need more time than this full year in AAA. I'd actually be surprised if he doesn't log 10-12 starts at the MLB level before the year is over.

[seabeachfred]

Not sure Webster will need more time than this full year in AAA. I'd actually be surprised if he doesn't log 10-12 starts at the MLB level before the year is over.

 

From what I've been reading Webster hasn't exactly lit up Triple A Ball the last couple of weeks. He has even been ejected from two games according to one report. I know the guy has explosive stuff but he was in the Dodger organization and they always over-hype their prospects and most never amount to much save for Kershaw and Kemp, though those are two pretty good pieces to have on a team. I would like to see Alan pitch three or four solid games in a row before we think about bringing him up or talking about his long potential for our rotation. Then again, after Lackey's less than impressive performance last night we may need another starter besides the replacement for Doubrant if that guy doesn't come around.

 

My hope was that this was just a hiccup for Lackey and next time he will pitch much better. That means more than ever that Buchholz must remain healthy and become a top winning ace for us, and that Lester get out of his recent doldrums and start pitching "ace" type baseball, like starting tonight.

[a700hitter]

From what I've been reading Webster hasn't exactly lit up Triple A Ball the last couple of weeks. He has even been ejected from two games according to one report. I know the guy has explosive stuff but he was in the Dodger organization and they always over-hype their prospects and most never amount to much save for Kershaw and Kemp, though those are two pretty good pieces to have on a team. I would like to see Alan pitch three or four solid games in a row before we think about bringing him up or talking about his long potential for our rotation. Then again, after Lackey's less than impressive performance last night we may need another starter besides the replacement for Doubrant if that guy doesn't come around.

 

My hope was that this was just a hiccup for Lackey and next time he will pitch much better. That means more than ever that Buchholz must remain healthy and become a top winning ace for us, and that Lester get out of his recent doldrums and start pitching "ace" type baseball, like starting tonight.

Does Webster have anger issues? It is unusual for a pitcher to get ejected from 2 games unless beanballs are involved.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Does Webster have anger issues? It is unusual for a pitcher to get ejected from 2 games unless beanballs are involved.

 

He hit a guy in retaliation because they threw at one of the PawSox. Let's not overblow the situation.