Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees are proving this yr that a solid #1-#5 gets you places. When Nova and Pettitte were in the rotation, we rolled. When they werent, we were meat. Our "ace" in CC hasnt been great this yr and our #2 has been pitching past what was expected. But we gained our 10 game lead due to having #1-#5 give quality starts for nearly a 45 day span. Lester can be a quality starter and pidgeon holing him into a "spot" isnt necessary. If he can sustain a 4.40ERA through the season (which sans July, he has been doing), then he fits that mold. Buchholz has been great since mid May and Doubront has shown flashes. The problem has been your other two spots. With Beckett, Cook, DiceK, et al, you have had a steaming pile of dogshit. You dont need an ace or two. You need two guys who can throw 200IP and have an ERA in the low 4's to high 3's. You get that, and your pen will stabilize and you will improve. You dont get that, or you see Lester suck, Buchholz get hurt or Doubie regress, and you are cooked again

 

Cook has pitched decently his last 3 starts and I think he should be considered for next year, only as a dirt-cheap #5-#6 of course.

[jung]

Cook sandwiched a 5 inning stint giving up 3 runs against NY between two stints against Seattle and the Rays, two of the weakest hitting teams you will ever see.

 

If the Sox want to bring him back as the 6 (the guy that comes in when somebody gets injured) I suppose that would be fine. If he comes back even as a 5 I would consider that a comment on their off season plan to resolve the pitching and not a positive comment either.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Cook sandwiched a 5 inning stint giving up 3 runs against NY against two stints against Seattle and the Rays, two the weakest hitting teams you will ever see.

 

If the Sox want to bring him back as the 6 (the guy that comes in when somebody gets injured) I suppose that would be fine. If he comes back even as a 5 I would consider that a comment on their off season plan to resolve the pitching and not a positive comment either.

 

Even if the Sox didn't make a single SP acquisition this offseason (which is quite literally impossible), the rotation would still be without Cook going into next season. You'd have Buch - Lester - Lackey - Doubront - De La Rosa.

 

Personally, I think they shop Doubront, potentially shipping him to Philly in a deal for Cliff Lee. I don't see Doubront with the Sox next season.

 

Josh Johnson has really settled down nicely lately (2.88 ERA in his last 10 starts). He's also a guy who I could see the Sox dealing for. If the Marlins liked Crawford so much, I wonder what they'd think about dealing Josh Johnson for Ellsbury straight up, considering both are in the final year of their deals.

 

Adding Cliff Lee and Josh Johnson to the rotation certainly makes them a contender next year, along with a pick up of Melky on a 1 year pillow deal and another move for a power hitting OF (maybe even give Hamilton a high AAV for only 4 years, like 4/100).

[Bellhorn04]

Melky?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Melky?

 

Cabrera. The guy who was on roids but hit .345 this year

[rjortiz]

Even if the Sox didn't make a single SP acquisition this offseason (which is quite literally impossible), the rotation would still be without Cook going into next season. You'd have Buch - Lester - Lackey - Doubront - De La Rosa.

 

Personally, I think they shop Doubront, potentially shipping him to Philly in a deal for Cliff Lee. I don't see Doubront with the Sox next season.

 

Josh Johnson has really settled down nicely lately (2.88 ERA in his last 10 starts). He's also a guy who I could see the Sox dealing for. If the Marlins liked Crawford so much, I wonder what they'd think about dealing Josh Johnson for Ellsbury straight up, considering both are in the final year of their deals.

 

Adding Cliff Lee and Josh Johnson to the rotation certainly makes them a contender next year, along with a pick up of Melky on a 1 year pillow deal and another move for a power hitting OF (maybe even give Hamilton a high AAV for only 4 years, like 4/100).

 

Marlins would never make that trade. A year of Johnson for a year of Ellsbury?

[Bellhorn04]

Cabrera. The guy who was on roids but hit .345 this year

 

I dunno...Melky seems like a touchy proposition coming off a PED suspension and attempted obstruction of justice.

[mvp 78]

No more Aaron Cooks please. I'd rather bring up some younger guys with upside.

[Laser Show]

Marlins would never make that trade. A year of Johnson for a year of Ellsbury?

 

Why not? Neither has shown that they can stay on the field or productive long term. Swap jerseys and see what happens. Looks pretty fair to me

[Station 13]

Why not? Neither has shown that they can stay on the field or productive long term. Swap jerseys and see what happens. Looks pretty fair to me

 

Terrible trade for the Red Sox. Ellsbury was taken out by Beltre and some turd SS. If he has a chronic problem, let me know about it.

[DocHolliday]

Terrible trade for the Red Sox. Ellsbury was taken out by Beltre and some turd SS. If he has a chronic problem, let me know about it.

 

Agreed- Ellsbury is too much to give up for a guy with the injury history of Johnson. As you mention, Ellsbury's injuries have been due totally to elements out of his control, while Johnson's injuries can be traced back to no outside cause.

 

If Ellsbury is dealt, it needs to be for a young, cost controlled player with high upside that makes sense for this organization in the future. With Ellsbury's pending FA, it would also have to be to a team that would have both a need and interest in signing him long term.

 

This is part of the reason I have mentioned the Rangers as a logical trade partner. With Hamilton almost certainly due to leave after this season, the Rangers will have a big hole in their lineup going forward. They will continue to mash, but without Hamilton & Napoli, coupled with Young and Beltre's aging, they will need someone to take over Hamilton's role on offense and defense. The interest would presumably be there as well as the need. They have shown they will spend in FA, as their payroll has seen the highest % increase of any ML club since 2009 (and with Beltre as an example, they don't seem to shy away from Boras clients). Add to all of this quality and depth of their farm system and recent call ups, and its easy to see why they would be a logical trade partner.

 

I'm sure there are other teams in similar situations- this is the one that comes to mind immediately.

[a700hitter]

I have read that Soriano can opt to walk from the Yankees after the season. After the year he has had and the failure by Robertson to step up, I suspect that the Yankees will try to retain Soriano. Mo Rivera has stated that he will be coming back. I'm not so sure that the Yanks will want him back if they commit to Soriano. Food for thought: should the Sox make a run at Mo again like they did a couple of years ago?

[Bellhorn04]

I have read that Soriano can opt to walk from the Yankees after the season. After the year he has had and the failure by Robertson to step up, I suspect that the Yankees will try to retain Soriano. Mo Rivera has stated that he will be coming back. I'm not so sure that the Yanks will want him back if they commit to Soriano. Food for thought: should the Sox make a run at Mo again like they did a couple of years ago?

 

I can't see much point. If Rivera does come back it'll be for one year only, and I doubt he has any interest in wrapping a career as a Yankee legend with a one-off for another team.

[a700hitter]

I can't see much point. If Rivera does come back it'll be for one year only, and I doubt he has any interest in wrapping a career as a Yankee legend with a one-off for another team.

I agree that he will want to finish as a Yankee, but if they make no move to sign him and he feels disrespected, he may want to prove them wrong. You never know. Could it hurt to court him in the off season? Never mind whether he would want to end his career elsewhere. The answer to that is clearly no, but he may not like having the door shut in his face. From a Red Sox perspective, would this be a good move?

[Bellhorn04]

I agree that he will want to finish as a Yankee, but if they make no move to sign him and he feels disrespected, he may want to prove them wrong. You never know. Could it hurt to court him in the off season? Never mind whether he would want to end his career elsewhere. The answer to that is clearly no, but he may not like having the door shut in his face. From a Red Sox perspective, would this be a good move?

 

I don't think so, because we'd have to overpay him.

[a700hitter]

I don't think so, because we'd have to overpay him.

rim shot.

[example1]

Alex Speiers most recent piece at WEEI is worth a read. He talks about how important it is that the six finish in the top ten draft picks and I agree completely. Do that and they can be aggressive with FAs this off season. Otherwise, signing even a guy like Edwin Jackson or Mike Napoli would cost them their first round pick, which is their highest since they drafted Nomar and, before that, Trot Nixon.

[Palodios]

Alex Speiers most recent piece at WEEI is worth a read. He talks about how important it is that the six finish in the top ten draft picks and I agree completely. Do that and they can be aggressive with FAs this off season. Otherwise, signing even a guy like Edwin Jackson or Mike Napoli would cost them their first round pick, which is their highest since they drafted Nomar and, before that, Trot Nixon.

 

The CBA changes could be devastating here. Previously, the top 15 were protected, now, the Red Sox won't be so lucky.

 

If Ben Cherrington were clever, he'd work out a deal with the team that the Red Sox would be giving the pick to.

[Behindenemylines]

If this a top ten pick they can't mess it up. It has to be someone that is a future All-Star. I would focus on a pitcher that is a can't miss.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This could be very good news:

 

Lucchino said the Red Sox plan to take a more aggressive approach in the future in advancing their prospects, and agreed it's possible that some of them will see playing time in Boston next season, especially outfielder Bradley, 22, who finished with an OBP of .430 in 128 games for Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland.

 

"I think that is possible," Lucchino said. "Maybe not at the start of the season, but at some point during the year. ... I do think we have taken a very conservative approach historically to the advancement of players in our minor-league system. I think that's just an undeniable fact and I hope as we focus more on scouting and player development in the next few years that will change, that there will be a presumption for slightly more rapid growth."

 

Finally, maybe we won't wait until our prospects are 24 and 25 years old before they get called up. Obviously, we can't go into 2013 expecting anything from any of those prospects, but it certainly allows the Sox to allocate money on resources other than OF depth, etc because now they have Brentz and Bradley both who can be called up.

[jung]

There is no such thing as a "can't miss" prospect but the Sox have a better shot at getting somebody that will develop into a future front line player/pitcher than they usually get and that is certainly worth a great deal.

 

Amazed at two things in the LL comment:

1) that is about as honest an assessment of a recent Sox malady as I have heard from this organization all year and in fact in several years

2) that they have actually reached a valid conclusion about ANYTHING baseball without letting some ******** business issue get in the way

 

Now I hope that the Sox actually act accordingly. Get guys up here before they are a lock for Rookie of he Year honors in their first year in the bigs. Often our guys from the system win RoY honors more because they have languished in the minors for so long that they are completely polished ML players by the time they finally get to play up here....that is unless they have been injured while in the minors and as a result, never get here.

 

In the meantime we are often off signing the next big bonus baby who plays the same damn position that the kid from the minors should be up here playing. We sign them for enough money to put them into semi-retirement which is often about the level of effort we get out of them. We usually get a few other things out of these "stars" as well. While they are here, many can be relied on to burp and fart out some blather about knowing more about what they need to do to prepare than any coach knows...blah...blah...blah.

 

Don't get me wrong...I am all for signing major players for big money as long as they are somebody that will blend and make for a cohesive team effort and somebody that is not disabled by some malady or another or just out of surgery or just coming out of rehab or just broken in some way or the other. If you are going to give one of these clowns all the money, make it somebody that is worth all the money or don't give it to them.

[rjortiz]

Why not? Neither has shown that they can stay on the field or productive long term. Swap jerseys and see what happens. Looks pretty fair to me

 

The Marlins would be adding payroll, and getting one player for a year. They have payroll limitations, and they have been the worst team in the NL, save for th Astros, since the AllStar break.

 

They probably want cost controlled players.

[SoxSport]

Lucchino's statement that they plan to take a more aggressive approach in advancing prospects is an admission of the failure to do so in the recent past. It is significant to me because it's something I've noticed and commented on as a criticism of the Red Sox the last year or two. That was particularly noticeable with Kalish, whose career was affected by keeping him in AAA two years ago when Bill James had him breaking out in Boston. He got hurt in Pawtucket, and hasn't yet gotten back to where he was.The failure to promote Lav and Iggy pre-season may also perhaps be an example, though both seem to have benefited from a year with Arnie Beyeler--who has managed well enough in Pawtucket to be a serious candidate for the Red Sox job next year.

 

I wish this love affair with Farrell would disappear--he will cost a good prospect, and he was overrated as a pitching coach. The pitching sucked his last two years, and his starters were stolen blind on the bases. The other guy I like for manager is Brad Mills, who kept the Red Sox in good shape coming out of spring training as bench coach. That was clear after he was replaced, and they started the next two seasons poorly with Demarlo Hale as bench coach. Clearly, Tito was a hands off guy, and needed strong coaches to run the team.

 

The other thing I've suggested is a senior VP type to run the team. Cherington's boss right now is essentially Henry, and that's inadequate for a first year GM with a team that is reloading. It is a thin organization vertically. The rehiring of Bill James and others, now we are learning, to help in player evaluations, is another admission that things haven't gone so well for Ben this year with trades and other personnel moves (Bard comes to mind). We know that Lucchino cleaned house of the saber consultants a few years ago to save a few pennies, and it may have cost them in Epstein's big money fiascos. There is also talk of bringing in another senior VP type from the outside to run the team--one suggested is Toronto's asst GM. Henry clearly loves Cherington, but sees the need to replace Epstein with somebody more senior. I suspect he and Werner have brought in management consultants to look at the organization.

 

I hear also they are taking a look at how they handle their pitching--an admission that maybe it just isn't the pitchers themselves that are the problem for the weak arms and the underachieving that characterizes the staff. We've talked about that here, too.

 

It's comforting to see that the top brass of the Red Sox are seeing some of the problems that I (and others) have seen. It's surprising that these perceptions from a distance turn out to be accurate.

[Palodios]

The Marlins would be adding payroll, and getting one player for a year. They have payroll limitations, and they have been the worst team in the NL, save for th Astros, since the AllStar break.

 

They probably want cost controlled players.

 

Didn't they just add like 50 million in the offseason? And then drop 50 million off at the all star break? The money is there, unless they completely decided to throw away the approach they had from last year.

 

They need to fill a stadium. Johnson can help with that one night a week. Ellsbury could do it every night. Unless they want to piss off their brand new fanbase already, they probably will be working on ways to win-now. Maybe Ellsbury is part of that, or maybe, just maybe, there could be a three team trade. Almost any trade involving Ellsbury, and getting back an impact player would be one of those.

[a700hitter]

Didn't they just add like 50 million in the offseason? And then drop 50 million off at the all star break? The money is there, unless they completely decided to throw away the approach they had from last year.

 

They need to fill a stadium. Johnson can help with that one night a week. Ellsbury could do it every night. Unless they want to piss off their brand new fanbase already, they probably will be working on ways to win-now. Maybe Ellsbury is part of that, or maybe, just maybe, there could be a three team trade. Almost any trade involving Ellsbury, and getting back an impact player would be one of those.

They have no fanbase, and I don't think they can build one in southern Florida.

[mvp 78]

They have no fanbase, and I don't think they can build one in southern Florida.

 

Florida shouldn't have any pro teams.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

^This. Marlins did not deserve that new stadium, the fans here are a joke.

[Behindenemylines]

The only time there are a lot of baseball fans at games in the Florida market is during spring training. An those are fans of the 28 other teams. Its a shame because the Marlins have won two championships in their short existence and the Rays have had good teams the last few years. If they can draw under those circumstances then they never will.

[DocHolliday]

Edes reporting tonight that Varitek is "close" to accepting a position within the Red Sox organization, rumored to be a special assistant to the GM.

 

Wonder if this is the organization pitching evaluator position LL referenced on D&C recently.

[rjortiz]

Didn't they just add like 50 million in the offseason? And then drop 50 million off at the all star break? The money is there, unless they completely decided to throw away the approach they had from last year.

 

They need to fill a stadium. Johnson can help with that one night a week. Ellsbury could do it every night. Unless they want to piss off their brand new fanbase already, they probably will be working on ways to win-now. Maybe Ellsbury is part of that, or maybe, just maybe, there could be a three team trade. Almost any trade involving Ellsbury, and getting back an impact player would be one of those.

 

I don't think you get it. They won't give up a good trade chip for someone they control for one year. It will never happen.