Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

Bogaerts/Brentz/JBJ should all be given the opportunity to win MLB jobs in ST. If any of them appear ready, they should play.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bogaerts/Brentz/JBJ should all be given the opportunity to win MLB jobs in ST. If any of them appear ready, they should play.

 

I do recall Lucchino saying they are going to move their prospects at a faster pace. This is a chance for him to walk the talk.

 

I would be ok with a lineup going into next season of:

 

Ellsbury (CF)

Bradley Jr (LF)

Pedroia (2B)

Ortiz (DH)

Middlebrooks (3B)

Belt (1B)

Bogaerts (SS)

Brentz (RF)

Lavarnway ©

 

That actually would be a pretty solid lineup. It would also be extremely cheap, and the Sox could really do a lot of damage on the SP. That'd give them around $65-75mm to spend on pitching. Obviously they wouldn't spend all of it, but they certainly could go out and take on a full contract of Cliff Lee and sign Dan Haren/Jake Peavy. Potentially both if they wanted. And also bolster the bullpen by signing Broxton or League.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sands should be given a shot at LF as well. He looks like a guy who was blocked in LA. Gotta see if he's AAAA or a real talent

[Plumpamania]

Did everyone forget about Ryan Kalish here?

[jacksonianmarch]

There is a chance that both could be out there, especially if Ross goes elsewhere

[jung]

It is probably tough for folks to think much about Kalish because no matter what he is as a player, based on what is known about him, he represents yet another FO mistake in what has been an avalanche of FO mistakes.

 

While the A's wanted Reddick for Bailey, Sox willingness to send Reddick packing was a clear sign of making an even deeper commitment to Kalish than they had already made. To some extent, Reddick and Kalish are two halves of a complete RFer. Reddick features power and a decent glove. Kalish features speed and well above average defense but is not considered to be that much of a power threat even with a healthy shoulder.

 

So with the very real possibility of needing more power from their OF downstream, the Sox sent the power hitter packing for a guy that admittedly was not as yet healthy. So the Sox made an even deeper commitment to a guy that at best is not really a power hitter and a guy that is not really still able to show us what he has at the major league level. Kalish appears to have been completely honest about his shoulder situation. So it is not like the Sox went into this blindfolded.

 

So, I think people tend to ignore Kalish because we are just all tired of confronting FO mistake after FO mistake. I think the Sox have to give Kalish a legit shot once his shoulder is healthy. What else can they do at this point having invested so much time and effort into him.

[jopete19]

I do recall Lucchino saying they are going to move their prospects at a faster pace. This is a chance for him to walk the talk.

 

I would be ok with a lineup going into next season of:

 

Ellsbury (CF)

Bradley Jr (LF)

Pedroia (2B)

Ortiz (DH)

Middlebrooks (3B)

Belt (1B)

Bogaerts (SS)

Brentz (RF)

Lavarnway ©

 

That actually would be a pretty solid lineup. It would also be extremely cheap, and the Sox could really do a lot of damage on the SP. That'd give them around $65-75mm to spend on pitching. Obviously they wouldn't spend all of it, but they certainly could go out and take on a full contract of Cliff Lee and sign Dan Haren/Jake Peavy. Potentially both if they wanted. And also bolster the bullpen by signing Broxton or League.

 

Is that Brandon Belt from the Giants?

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox have to give him a chance, but when it comes to Sands, look at his MiLB numbers. They're fantastic with great power and patience. He cut his teeth in 2011 as a rookie and wasnt terrible (.727OPS, .340OBP) in nearly 200AB, but played in only 9 games in the bigs this yr.

[Plumpamania]

But Kalish wasn't a mistake, that's just the thing. And the Reddick deal was a Cherington move. That's current front office.

 

The kid has produced at any level he's been at, including solid OB%'s.

 

Ellsbury is a mystery and an injury plagued player. He's a Boras client and would want at least Carl Crawford money, and we shouldn't do that. Kalish gives us a leadoff hitter that we sorely need.

[jopete19]

I do like Kalish. He is a good ballplayer. I am just worried about the first base position.

[Plumpamania]

We all are worried about first base, but we also have to be realistic. For all the points pointed out above, why would Brian Sabean, a very smart GM, give Belt away cheaply?

[jopete19]

We all are worried about first base, but we also have to be realistic. For all the points pointed out above, why would Brian Sabean, a very smart GM, give Belt away cheaply?

 

I don't think he would. I've seen Belt play. He's a heck of a ball player. He wouldn't give him away cheaply. He is a rising player.

[Plumpamania]

What would give up to get him? The only thing I would be willing to give up as we do this mini rebuild really for a guy like Belt is Ellsbury. Let the Giants handle Boras -- gives them the bat they want in the OF that Cabrera was and opens up 1B for more Kungfu Panda and Posey easy days, and gives us some more salary/head ache relief.

[jung]

I like Kalish but the mistake is in further committing to a player that you cannot even evaluate at the ML level because he is not as yet healthy, and sending the power hitter packing knowing that you face downstream but really pretty near at hand power hitting issues in your lineup. Kalish is not a mistake per-say. Sending Reddick packing under the circumstances was the mistake. However that leaves you with Kalish. As for Kalish being the answer ala Ells...the Sox already know who that is likely to be and it is not Kalish. Kalish does not range in CF anything like Ells but Kalish does have both the glove and the arm for RF.

 

I think the other shoe we will hear dropping on the Reddick deal will be the long term viability of Bailey as a closer here. Don't think we as Sox fans are to thrilled with that end of the transaction either.

 

As for Reddick/Bailey being a BC deal, this FO is infested with the remnants of Theo...it is in fact Theo without Theo. So I for one don't distinguish much between the decisions and recommendations coming out of this version of Baseball Operations and the one Theo ran, especially with LL still sitting on top of the whole deal as Sox President....Mr LL runs the Red Sox.

[jopete19]

What would give up to get him? The only thing I would be willing to give up as we do this mini rebuild really for a guy like Belt is Ellsbury. Let the Giants handle Boras -- gives them the bat they want in the OF that Cabrera was and opens up 1B for more Kungfu Panda and Posey easy days, and gives us some more salary/head ache relief.

 

I have no idea what we would give them. I do want to get rid of all Boras players. One would be ok.

 

The Belt trade would make more room for the Panda and Posey. Very good point!

[jacksonianmarch]

But Kalish wasn't a mistake, that's just the thing. And the Reddick deal was a Cherington move. That's current front office.

 

The kid has produced at any level he's been at, including solid OB%'s.

 

Ellsbury is a mystery and an injury plagued player. He's a Boras client and would want at least Carl Crawford money, and we shouldn't do that. Kalish gives us a leadoff hitter that we sorely need.

 

Wait, so Ellsbury is the mystery, the guy who finished 2nd in the MVP in 2011, but Kalish is the leadoff hitter you have been waiting for? WTF? Kalish has shown a complete and total lack of being able to acclimate to big league life and he's taken serious steps backwards since his debut in 2010. He's one season away from a dump deal

[Plumpamania]

How has he taken serious steps backwards besides getting injured and not given a shot by Bobby V?

 

Ellsbury had one good year and before that was routinely boo'd by fans for not running out ground balls, and flatly being mediocre. We've had one good season from Ellsbury he's in his last year of arbitration eligibility. If he were to repeat his performance I'd be excited as can be, but I don't see Ellsbury coming close to 30 HR again, let alone 25.

[Plumpamania]

.353 .394 .509 .902 131

.280 .336 .394 .729 88

.301 .355 .415 .770 98

.192 .241 .244 .485 30

.321 .376 .552 .928 146

.271 .313 .370 .682 83

 

That's Ellsbury's BA/OBP/SA/OPS/OPS+ for his career. Remember that OPS+ for the average MLB player is 100, Ellsbury isn't exactly breaking down doors here.

[jacksonianmarch]

He did get 96ABs, and while it is a SSS, it isnt like he got 10ABs here.

[Palodios]

How has he taken serious steps backwards besides getting injured and not given a shot by Bobby V?

 

Ellsbury had one good year and before that was routinely boo'd by fans for not running out ground balls, and flatly being mediocre. We've had one good season from Ellsbury he's in his last year of arbitration eligibility. If he were to repeat his performance I'd be excited as can be, but I don't see Ellsbury coming close to 30 HR again, let alone 25.

 

Ellsbury had a .300 average and 70 steals in 2009, and a .280 average with 50 steals in 2008. He also plays a pretty damn good center field. Ellsbury hasn't hit that many home runs, but he's definitely been everything you could ask for from the position for atleast 3-4 years.

[Plumpamania]

Perhaps, but do you want to pay for 70 SB's a year with a .290 AVG at $17 plus mil per year?

[Palodios]

Perhaps, but do you want to pay for 70 SB's a year with a .290 AVG at $17 plus mil per year?

 

For long term? Absolutely not. Short term? That's what interests me. My stance on Ellsbury is a bit unique. I think the Red Sox should offer him a 2/30 to 2/40 contract. Its a win-win for everyone involved.

 

Going into free agency in 2013, teams are not going to give Ellsbury more than 4 years because he's so injury prone. So he'll take a 4 year deal and head back into free agency in 2017 at age 34 with his speed waning and fewer suitors.

 

But, if he takes the next two years, in a park he knows he can succeed and stays healthy, he'll still be young enough at 31 to get an elite contract and probably get up to 6 years, and make bank from 31-37. It gives the Red Sox an elite hitter for another year, and the opportunity to trade him if the situation goes well.

[jung]

The question of whether you do or don't want to pay for Ells is not the same question as whether Kalish is the replacement for Ells. Whatever Kalish is, he is not the replacement for Ells and given Kalish shoulder, you would not have wanted him to get more at bats in 2012....would not have proven anything. I do believe that Kalish will get a shot at RF either as a platoon RF or some sort of RF and either he will succeed or fail. That is sort of what the Sox have left themselves with relative to RF. Even if they bring somebody in, you could knock me over with a feather if they don't give Kalish a legit shot at RF. That still does not make Kalish the replacement for Ells.

[Plumpamania]

I don't see anyone paying big time contracts after age 32 much longer.

[Plumpamania]

We strongly overvalue Ellsbury is all I'm seeing here.

[Palodios]

I don't see anyone paying big time contracts after age 32 much longer.

 

Ellsbury would only be 31. And generally, teams spend more and more every year-- not less.

[Plumpamania]

True, but at some point (hoping) there will be some sort of restraint. Pujols was a different animal, and the Tigers spent retardedly out of fright due to the Martinez injury.

[Bellhorn04]

True, but at some point (hoping) there will be some sort of restraint. Pujols was a different animal, and the Tigers spent retardedly out of fright due to the Martinez injury.

 

If by restraint you mean staying under the 189 million lux tax threshold, then I'll agree with you. Baseball has become an incredible money making machine and big market teams are going to spend big. Look at what the Dodgers just did, and they've already said they're going to spend more this offseason.

 

The only thing I can see as a possibility is that the length of contracts might come down...eventually.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yes, I did mean Brandon Belt.

 

And I am discussing trading Brandon Belt because the Giants have Buster Posey, who is not going to be a long term solution at C, and needs to play some 1B. It was just a couple weeks ago that Bochy put Belt in LF so they could put Posey at 1B.

 

Belt was with the Giants all season and only started 102 games. Going forward, he's going to be a 1B first and a C second.

 

So you've got Sandoval at 3B, Posey at 1B, why wouldn't you try to get a player who could help your team for Belt?

 

The Sox could trade Ellsbury + Webster + Montas for Belt and probably make the deal happen. A high caliber MLB player who helps next year, a high caliber arm who will help in the future, and a guy who throws 100 who could help their pen in the future.

[kapsis21]

Yes, I did mean Brandon Belt.

 

And I am discussing trading Brandon Belt because the Giants have Buster Posey, who is not going to be a long term solution at C, and needs to play some 1B. It was just a couple weeks ago that Bochy put Belt in LF so they could put Posey at 1B.

 

Belt was with the Giants all season and only started 102 games. Going forward, he's going to be a 1B first and a C second.

 

So you've got Sandoval at 3B, Posey at 1B, why wouldn't you try to get a player who could help your team for Belt?

 

The Sox could trade Ellsbury + Webster + Montas for Belt and probably make the deal happen. A high caliber MLB player who helps next year, a high caliber arm who will help in the future, and a guy who throws 100 who could help their pen in the future.

 

dude that is crazy, he has nothing proven at the MLB level. why give away Ells and Webster for someone at 1st base who has yet to prove himself.

Is he going to be any better than Mauro Gomez? on offense.. nope. on defense yep.

i dont see any upside here.