Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Behindenemylines]

The numbers are just part of it when looking for players. Players who have the numbers that fit into what Sox want to do also have to have that makeup that allows then to play in Boston. Crawford is a great example of this. Had good numbers, but was not made to play in Boston and the more he struggled the more he pressed.

[SoxSport]

James lost a lot of credibility with me with his defense of Joe Paterno.

 

Try reading his books on baseball. Paterno isn't baseball. Besides, I don't think he defended Paterno. He was just defending Paterno's rights vs the media, as I recall. But that's another issue for a different thread.

 

Henry is an admirer of James and sabermetrics. A few years ago, the Red Sox decided to save money and unload all their saber consultants, who cost them a pittance relative to their regular staff. Why Henry allowed this to happen is Henry's problem. The result was disastrous--a bunch of bad or unnecessary and expensive free agents. Henry was lucky enough to find a daddy, the Dodgers, who took the load off his back. Now he can start over. Hopefully, the consultants will return and they can build a team that gets walks again. And has no $20 million dollar players.

[jung]

Actually I thought James was still contracted to the Sox which makes the "ignored" comments at least make sense. If he was not, then I just don't understand why the Sox would comment that James was being ignored. If he is on retainer to or an employee of your organization, that would allow the comment about being ignored to make some sense. If that is not the case, then they would not be able to say James was ignored. How could you ignore somebody that has no responsibility to you in the first place?

[Elktonnick]

Try reading his books on baseball. Paterno isn't baseball. Besides, I don't think he defended Paterno. He was just defending Paterno's rights vs the media, as I recall. But that's another issue for a different thread.

 

Henry is an admirer of James and sabermetrics. A few years ago, the Red Sox decided to save money and unload all their saber consultants, who cost them a pittance relative to their regular staff. Why Henry allowed this to happen is Henry's problem. The result was disastrous--a bunch of bad or unnecessary and expensive free agents. Henry was lucky enough to find a daddy, the Dodgers, who took the load off his back. Now he can start over. Hopefully, the consultants will return and they can build a team that gets walks again. And has no $20 million dollar players.

 

I have read James's books. James criticized the Freeh report which I read. James should stick to Baseball. He knows nothing about the Sandusky case or child welfare issues.

[a700hitter]

We are so used to the AL East being a tough division, but that hasn't been the case this season. The AL West Division made the AL East their bitches this year.

[Station 13]

McCarthy had surgery on his head after taking a liner. He was one of my offseason target.

 

We need to sign starters. Doubront or whatever filling the 4-5 will melt the BP down before June.

[TutGadol]

No McCarthy. his FIP is a cheater, I value SIERA much more. His BABIP have actually been low the past two years, pitchers who get less Ks support higher BABIPs then usual (And vice versa). Plus his HR/FB rates have been low the past two years, courtesy of the Colosseum. He can forget about that in Boston. It would probably take a three year deal to get him, I expect him to start here with around a 4.5 era, and in his last season get over to the 5s.

[a700hitter]

McCarthy had surgery on his head after taking a liner. He was one of my offseason target.

 

We need to sign starters. Doubront or whatever filling the 4-5 will melt the BP down before June.

McCarthy was not going to be a solution for us. Every season he spends considerable time on the DL, and based on this one year I am not willing to concede that he has found consistency. We need 2 established reliable starters. This should be the #1 priority in the off season. They may have to spend more than they would like, but as I said earlier, they will have to pay a premium to get players after a season like this. If they wait for a bargain, they will come up empty and all of us will be left pinning our hopes on the likes of Morales, Doubront and Lackey to round out the staff after Buchholz and Lester, with several new buckets of s*** as depth options.

[BornToRun]

McCarthy is smart. He's real sabermetrically inclined and I think he'd find a way to be successful here. Im not a ln advocate for signing him because of his injury history but I dont doubt he'd perform well enough if brought aboard.

[a700hitter]

McCarthy is smart. He's real sabermetrically inclined and I think he'd find a way to be successful here. Im not a ln advocate for signing him because of his injury history but I dont doubt he'd perform well enough if brought aboard.

He's sabremetrically inclined? What do you mean?

[Station 13]

He's sabremetrically inclined? What do you mean?

 

Basically anti FIP/xFIP, SIERA.

 

Kinda like Buchholz. The sabremetric stats for both these guys are not good, but they get results.

[Behindenemylines]

Even players that the nation are talking about targeting are now getting injuried. McCarthy taking a liner and needing surgury would take him off the list of possible off season targets. Something like that could end the guys career. Is it me or are we seeing more guys get hit by liners?

[a700hitter]

The Padres outrighted both right-hander Ross Ohlendorf and catcher Eddy Rodriguez to Triple-A, reports Jeff Sanders of The North County Times (on Twitter). San Diego designated the duo for assignment earlier this week to create room on the roster for some September call-ups.

Great Cherries can pick him up again as a depth option.

[redsoxfan3]

I am getting kind of nervous about the pitching for next year as well. It looks like Aceves will probably get a chance to start the rest of this year in Dice-K's role. If he is successful, that means we have six internal options in Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront, Morales, and Aceves fighting for spots in the rotation. Realistically I think Lester is done and I would be all for trying to trade both Lester and Ellsbury if we can get some pretty good prospects in return. Next year will be a really bad year if we do not improve our rotation. Lester has underperformed. Buchholz has been inconsistent but has shown signs of being a great pitcher. Lackey is a toss up. I imagine he will be a lot better than he was in 2010, but then again, that is not a given. Doubront has shown potential, but his arm has gotten fatigued. The problem is can we rely on him to be consistent all year. Morales has shown he can start, but then again that is a small sample. Aceves could be a good option, but he also has a small sample. I hope we just do not get content with the internal options. Lester will have to pitch like an ace. Buchholz will have to be a solid #2. Doubront will have to prove he can pitch a whole season without s***ing the bed in the second half. Lackey will have to be on. Aceves and/or Morales will also have to pitch consistently as well. These are all question marks that are huge concerns in our rotation. We really need for these guys to step up next season. What we really need is a true ace. If that means that we get rid of Lester for one, then I am all for it.

[Palodios]

I am getting kind of nervous about the pitching for next year as well. It looks like Aceves will probably get a chance to start the rest of this year in Dice-K's role. If he is successful, that means we have six internal options in Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront, Morales, and Aceves fighting for spots in the rotation. Realistically I think Lester is done and I would be all for trying to trade both Lester and Ellsbury if we can get some pretty good prospects in return. Next year will be a really bad year if we do not improve our rotation. Lester has underperformed. Buchholz has been inconsistent but has shown signs of being a great pitcher. Lackey is a toss up. I imagine he will be a lot better than he was in 2010, but then again, that is not a given. Doubront has shown potential, but his arm has gotten fatigued. The problem is can we rely on him to be consistent all year. Morales has shown he can start, but then again that is a small sample. Aceves could be a good option, but he also has a small sample. I hope we just do not get content with the internal options. Lester will have to pitch like an ace. Buchholz will have to be a solid #2. Doubront will have to prove he can pitch a whole season without s***ing the bed in the second half. Lackey will have to be on. Aceves and/or Morales will also have to pitch consistently as well. These are all question marks that are huge concerns in our rotation. We really need for these guys to step up next season. What we really need is a true ace. If that means that we get rid of Lester for one, then I am all for it.

 

Lester is not going anywhere. His 2014 option is nulled if traded, so he's going to be worth significantly more to the Red Sox than another team. Players are allowed to have bad seasons, you know?

[Station 13]

Lester is not going anywhere. His 2014 option is nulled if traded, so he's going to be worth significantly more to the Red Sox than another team. Players are allowed to have bad seasons, you know?

 

Even if Lester isn't his 2008-2010 self, he's still has value with his contract.

 

200IP, 3.75-4.00 ERA in the AL East is darn good.

[jacksonianmarch]

That Lester isnt around anymore. Even without his horrible July, he's a 4.40ERA guy. His K/9IP are down 2.3K/IP from 2010 and those guys are accounting for more hits and more homeruns. He's been about as effective in Boston as Freddy Garcia has been for us this yr. He still has his stuff, so maybe he could turn it around. But there is no indication that he is anything more than a #4 at this point

[Station 13]

That Lester isnt around anymore. Even without his horrible July, he's a 4.40ERA guy. His K/9IP are down 2.3K/IP from 2010 and those guys are accounting for more hits and more homeruns. He's been about as effective in Boston as Freddy Garcia has been for us this yr. He still has his stuff, so maybe he could turn it around. But there is no indication that he is anything more than a #4 at this point

 

Players have bad, awful years. Lester Ks may gone down, but you are ignoring that his walks is also down. What hurt him this year is Fenway. His ERA away is 3.30. So he can definitely still pitch.

 

If the Sox decide to trade him, they can get quite a bit. But I do not see them doing it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Right now, they have to hold onto him. His value is at an all-time low.

[Behindenemylines]

Lester is still throwing the ball as hard, but his location has been terrible. You look at a lot of his starts and its a bad inning that does him in.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Some decent pitchers better be picked up this offseason. I can't watch another season of this crap.

[BornToRun]

Should I be surprised that jacko says Jon Lester is a 4 starter after one bad year?

[a700hitter]

Should I be surprised that jacko says Jon Lester is a 4 starter after one bad year?

His decline started in 2011.

[Behindenemylines]

Young, lefty, has won in Boston before, and is one of our own having come up through the system. I think he still has to be in the Sox plans for the rotation in 2013. Maybe he is not a 1 or a 2, but he is not a 4. If he is a 4 in your rotation then you are going to win a lot of games. If it is true that his decline started in 2011, then maybe Farrell leaving as pitching coach is a lot more important then we realize.

[jung]

Lester does not fall to a 4 but I don't think he is a 1 or a 2 either. Buch would be the 2 in a proper, solid competitive rotation. Lester would be a 3. The 1 would be a ????. Lackey might slot into the 4 or maybe a 5 depending on who else was part of the rotation.

 

Lester could work his way past Buch again but I do not any longer see Lester as having the potential to be a 1 in a truly solid rotation.

[Palodios]

His decline started in 2011.

 

People say this like its gospel, and actually have absolutely no idea how Lester pitched at the end of 2011. He essentially had one terrible start that skewed the whole month. Without it, he had a 3.41 ERA in the month of September, pretty close to his career averages. Without that start, his ERA for the year drops from 3.47 to 3.13.

 

How is it that a guy like Papelbon who has been the absolutely middle of the pack the last three years is defended so ardently and erectively by so many people here, but a guy like Lester who has been the very core of this rotation for so many years has one bad start in 2011, and an off season this year when the entire team had an offseason, and suddenly its off to the glue factory for him?

[Behindenemylines]

IF the Sox could some how get that true number 1 for the rotation that would do a lot at turning this thing around. I think Buchholtz has had a good second half, and if healthy could be a good number 2. Lester is close to finding it, and if the Sox can find the right pitching coach it can be fixed and he could be a really good 3.

[a700hitter]

People say this like its gospel, and actually have absolutely no idea how Lester pitched at the end of 2011. He essentially had one terrible start that skewed the whole month. Without it, he had a 3.41 ERA in the month of September, pretty close to his career averages. Without that start, his ERA for the year drops from 3.47 to 3.13.

 

How is it that a guy like Papelbon who has been the absolutely middle of the pack the last three years is defended so ardently and erectively by so many people here, but a guy like Lester who has been the very core of this rotation for so many years has one bad start in 2011, and an off season this year when the entire team had an offseason, and suddenly its off to the glue factory for him?

His k's per 9 and other numbers were starting to decline. His command was slipping too. ...And I am talking about the entire season... not just the last month.

[Behindenemylines]

Sometimes the K's drop when a pitcher has issues with command, and constantly fall behind in the count. If pitchers are always falling behind in the count then hitters aren't swinging at the pitchers pitch and are getting more pitches that get more of the plate. When Lester is on he is always 0-2 or 1-2 on hitters and makes them swing at his pitches. I think the stuff is still their with him, but the command has been the issue.

[jung]

Lester has been wild in the strike zone and wild outside the strike zone. His mechanics have been screwed up. Took him awhile to get to this point and will likely at least take an offseason to get back I would think.