DocHolliday

This is what I hope from this year's team and the organization in general. Where that translates in the standings is a complete mystery at this point. If the team can be competitive on the field and get back to being a respected organization, I will feel a lot better about the future seasons and worry less about the final outcome of this particular season. Just go out and play hard each day, keep a positive attitude, and see what happens.

Should be available now, but I know it's only available on certain platforms.

Almost reminds me of 2011 and "The Best Team Ever" campaigning by the Herald, et al. As far as I'm concerned, the Giants are still the team to beat in the NL west and Oakland/Texas look to be tough on the Angels- even Seattle has improved. The Astros on the other hand, tonight's game aside, will inflate every other team's record in the AL West.

And the longest running thread on Talksox? http://http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/16902-red-sox-2012-2013-offseason-thread.html

Louisville looks like the team to beat, even with Ware out. They completely shut down Duke for the better part of the game and should have similar results against Wichita State.

Not even one game in yet, but the Astros have played a good game through 5+. Their catcher Jason Castro has the looks and batting stance of Ryan Kalish - anybody else notice that?

Glad to see the Game Thread section active again. Tomorrow should be exciting and hopefully will be the first opportunity for a winning streak in 2013. Why not get started on the right foot for a change? Go Sox!

I wouldn't go as far to say that the last few ST games are must wins. But I will say that the attitude in those games has to be different than previous years. They can't treat it like a must win, but they need to treat it progressively more like a regular season game so that they have the right mindset as a team come April 1. It was especially evident in 2011 for me. I was at all 3 of the games in the opening series in Texas, and the Sox were an embarrassment. The Rangers were clearly ready for the season to start and the Sox, particularly the pitching, looked like they were going through the dead arm period in Spring Training. Lackey pitched the 2nd game and was absolutely rocked - 3.2 IP and 9 ER. Even with revisionist history that his elbow may have been bothering him at that time, the effort was clearly, for lack of a better word, lacking. Last season, there was the bullpen debacle with Aceves and Melancon in games 1 & 3 and the ridiculous 2nd game where Beckett gave up 5 HR in less than 5 innings. Even if they get through the first two weeks and are hovering around .500, that would be a step in the right direction on a lot of different fronts.

As a subscriber to MLB.tv for the past 10 seasons, I can say that April of each season is the worst month for quality and getting issues resolved. Its like clockwork and repeats itself each season. The main reasons for this are the new improvements MLB has each season for the product (which likely don't get proper testing before they are launched) and the fact that MLB promotes free trials for the first couple of weeks. Once May 1 hits, they've usually fixed a lot of the issues and the flood of users that come with the trial period either lose interest or aren't willing to pay for the service for the rest of the season. At that point, there are almost no issues for the rest of the season. If you have Directv, they offer the extra innings package for free during the first week of the season - so that would help out a bit to make sure you can watch the games for that first week, when the MLB.tv issues are at their worst.

They do have a lot to prove - especially in the first 2 weeks of the season. They've gotten off to some terrible starts the last 2 seasons that really set them back. This year, they begin the season with about 15 games against the AL East. Unlike the other 2 divisions, they won't have a divisional team to feast on throughout the season to boost their record. The AL East looks to be quite a competition, particularly with the Yankees injury situation this spring. From a marketing/business standpoint, they are spinning the lack of interest and lowered ticket sales by temporarily lowering concession prices as a "thank you" for the glory years of the past decade. A slow start on the field will quickly refresh the scrutiny and negative feelings/preconceptions that many in the fan base seem to have about the organization, but have largely kept dormant in the offseason. It's the time of the year where optimism springs eternal, but another slow start will bring back the negativity and scrutiny of the baseball and business operations. That being said, I feel and hope that this year will be a step in the right direction and a respectful record by Patriot's Day isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Been really busy with work the last couple of months. Glad to see the regular posters trickling back in and some new posters as well. Less than a week from Opening Day - can't wait to get the season started! Hope everyone is doing well and look forward to seeing everyone on the GTs and on the rest of the board.

I love your positive outlook on things, but I think that on paper, there are teams that are either agreed by the baseball world as better than the Sox or are debatably a better team. For me, the teams that are without question better than the Sox on paper are the Tigers and Angels. So while there are only 2 teams that are without question better on paper, there are a lot of teams that have a case but still have legitimate concerns. -Oakland (can they repeat last year's tremendous season?) -Texas (how will their pitching fair and how do they replace Hamilton?) -White Sox (will they get consistency from their staff and lineup?) -Blue Jays (can everybody stay healthy?) -Yankees (health concerns) -Rays (can they score enough runs?) I'm purposefully leaving out other teams that are close to entering the discussion like the Orioles and Royals because I don't think they have the same core of talent and will have to have extraordinary things go in their favor like Baltimore's record in close games and extra inning games.

I'd be pretty ecstatic if they got off to that kind of start in April. Looking back at the past 10 years, they've always faced a group of teams in the first 14 games of the season that, as a group, has a collective winning % of around .500. So, the majority of those seasons, they were able to get off to a fast start simply because they had a more talented team than the group they were facing. The exceptions of course were the past 3 seasons. The only season where they had a winning percentage lower than the group of teams they faced was, of course, last season. Like you mentioned, they'll start this season with four series against division rivals. One of the big things that's been talked about this offseason is how their lineup should be ferocious against LH pitching. They will get to face quite a few LH starters through those first 4 series. NY has Sabathia and Pettitte. Toronto has Romero and Buerhle. Tampa has Price and Moore. Baltimore has Chen and Matusz. That's 8 LH starters, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox had to face at least 5 of those guys through the first 4 series. To me, they should be able to salvage some games there - even if the matchups are tough. They've been pretty terrible in a lot of areas recently. But one area they will have to improve on in 2013 if they want to have a chance at contending is better results against their division. This year's division will be tough and doesn't have a clear favorite at this point. If they can go 7-7 or 6-8 through the first week or so, I would see that as a building block going forward.

I don't want to put an ultimatum on anything, but I feel a lot of things this year will depend on how the team begins the season - particularly in the first couple of weeks of the season. If you look at the Sox record through the first 14 of games of the season, which is roughly 10% of the season, here's where they've stood the past 3 seasons: 2010: 5-9 2011: 4-10 2012: 4-10 Compare that to the season average from 2003 - 2009 of 9-5 (worst start being 8-6). Its not so much a matter of statistical significance but more so of mindset and morale. The organization can say all they want about it being a long season, etc, but the fact is the slow starts have had an ill effect on the final outcome in each of the past 3 seasons. Getting off to a fast start this year would go a long way to making a positive influence on the organization from a number of fronts: instilling some level of credibility and confidence of the real owners of the team - the fanbase, deflecting negative criticism of the organization from sources like the media, the Francona book, etc, and, perhaps most importantly, giving the players a sense of unity and confidence that they in fact CAN get back to playing winning baseball.

If 2013 turns out to be a repeat of 09, I think the majority of posters and fans of the Sox would be ecstatic. Making the playoffs in and of itself in 2013 would likely be above what many of us see as the ceiling for this year's current squad. As for the downward trend, it makes sense to me that it would take a couple of years to show up. Like I mentioned in a previous post, the 08 team - and to an extent the 09 team as well, still had significant holdovers from the 07 team. You see the decline and inconsistency of significant players from the 07 team (Beckett, Lowell, DiceK, Varitek, Wakefield, etc.) along with the departure of key pieces of the 07 team (Schilling, Manny) and the growing pains of young players (Ellsbury, Buchholz). It all contributed to the decline from 07/08 to 09. You can also make the case that the player development machine did not produce enough impact players to help make up for the lost contributions from 07-09. Keeping in mind that impact talent from the draft usually does not arrive to the majors until atleast 2-3 years after the draft year, here's a look at the impact/potential impact players drafted under Theo through 2009: 2003: David Murphy, Jonathan Papelbon 2004: Dustin Pedroia 2005: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz (they also drafted Lowrie and Craig Hansen) 2006: Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Ryan Kalish 2007: Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Rizzo 2008: Casey Kelly (also drafted Ryan Lavarnway and Ryan Westmoreland) 2009: Reymond Fuentes Its pretty clear to me that the overall level of talent coming through the development system dropped off significantly after 2007 - around the time the Sox have gone on the record about a change in draft philosophy. Several of these guys could have been potential impact core pieces going into this season (Kelly and Rizzo) - but we all know that the majority of us, including myself, were on board when they were traded away. But it can work the other way too. Since the Sox have gone back to a refined version of their original draft strategy, they appear to have assembled a significant pool of potential impact talent: 2010: Garin Cecchini, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranaudo 2011: Matt Barnes, Blake Swihart, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley 2012: Deven Marrero, Brian Johnson, Pat Light This year's draft is also shaping up to be promising for the future - when you consider the Sox were able to keep all of their unprotected draft picks, in addition to their protected #7 overall pick in the draft. Going forward, I'd like to see them be more hesitant to trade top prospects and more focused on integrating talent from the minor leagues onto the major league roster.

I'm referring more to the shift in their drafting philosophy - which they themselves have been on the record saying that during the 07-10 period they shifted away from some principles that made them successful in drafting and developing prior to 2007. They have also said that they have since gone back to similar principles that helped them draft and develop the current core of players like Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester and Buchholz. It may very well be that they are heading in the right direction in rebuilding the core that you're referring to. It certainly appears they made the most out of letting Adrian Beltre walk, as that netted them Barnes and Bradley Jr. The Punto trade was a step back in the right direction as well. My biggest hope at this point is that they follow through with letting this up and coming group prove themselves and then supplement that group with established players who are better fits to the mold of what they are trying to accomplish than Crawford and Gonzalez were.

You're right about the 08 team. IMO, it was probably one of, if not the best, squads they have assembled since Henry et al have been in charge. It was also the year Pedroia won the MVP and DiceK had a 2.90 ERA - so it was definitely a year of extraordinary accomplishments in addition to making it to game 7 of the ALCS. My larger point is that the change in philosophy of ownership and the FO began to take place after the 2007 season. It wasn't something that happened overnight and largely had no effect on the 2008 team. The main pieces of the 08 team were largely holdovers from 2007 and the young crop of players drafted before 2007 who had become impact players at the ML level (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Masterson, Lowrie, etc.). Manny's time to go was well overdue and 2008 just happened to be the year where things reached a boiling point AND he was nearing the end of his contract. So to me, the changes began after 07 and really didn't start to show up on the ML team until 09.

Could be a combination of all of these things. Poor conditioning, mechanical flaws - even Lester's mindset/demeanor on the mound has been different at times since 2010. He doesn't seem to have that same focus - I can't remember him being so frustrated and flustered on the mound pre-2010 as he has been the past 2 seasons. In the past, I always got the impression that he was incredibly focused and a bit hard on himself, but never let things he can't control affect his performance. I also think that the league has adjusted to him as the years have gone by. You don't see as many RH chasing the inside cutter as you did a couple of years ago - but some of that is likely due to the lack of movement. The game is all about adjustments, and perhaps by making some adjustments, he can get back to a semblance of his old self.

As much as the FO denies the notion that they changed their vision for the Red Sox in recent years, my feeling is that they have come to the conclusion, at least temporarily, that their vision for the organization needed to be re-evaluated after what transpired the last two seasons, and even going back to 2008. The Francona book really highlighted the change in philosophy after 2007, but I wouldn't say that is some huge revelation that the media and fans weren't aware of before the book came out. As I've said in other posts, the organization burned through all of the goodwill they built up in the first 6 years of the current ownership with 5 years of varying degrees of mediocrity and disgust. For me, its almost as if they are starting from a clean slate at this point.

Great post! Its been a long and much needed winter for me. With everything that went on last season, I was in dire need of some periods this offseason where I took a hiatus from the Red Sox and baseball. Super Bowl Sunday is usually the day I begin to transition out of the off season mode and really become anxious for the upcoming season. Then comes Truck Day, reporting day for pitchers & catchers, first full squad workout, and the first ST games. Usually, the NCAA tournament comes right around the time I start to get impatient waiting for regular season games to begin, but the WBC will help make the time pass as well. In the process of buying a new house and keeping my fingers crossed that my new crib will be ready for baseball by Opening Day! Go Sox!

Nothing would help boost (or hurt) the overall morale of the fanbase and expectations in the early season than getting off to a better start than the last few seasons. In the opening series alone, the Red Sox are likely to face 2 lefties in Sabathia and Pettitte. Much talk has been made about the lineup being better suited against LH pitching, particularly with the new acquisitions like Victorino and Napoli. You can't make too much of any regular season series, especially early in the season. But this year's opening series could be the closest thing to a crucial regular season series where mathematical elimination or playoff contention is not at stake. Here are the results from the opening series in each of the last 3 years: 2010 (3 vs NYY): 9-7 W, 4-6 L, 1-3 L (1-2) 2011 (3 @ TEX): 5-9 L, 5-12 L, 1-5 L (0-3) 2012 (3 @ DET): 2-3 L, 0-10 L, 12-13 L (0-3) An overall record of 1-8 and clear signs of a team that was not ready to play at the start of each season. Farrell has commented several times about the importance of coming together in spring training and being ready to start the season. Perhaps its more than just filler.

I agree with your thoughts on fan expectations. To me, the fans are the main shareholders of the organization and are the driving force behind the $ the sport is generating. The "ownership" of the Red Sox is, in my opinion, more or less a stewardship or management group that is responsible for overseeing the desires of the true owners - the fans. Fans are the driving force behind TV revenue, ticket sales, and virtually all sources of revenue that flow into the organization. And, like you mentioned, many of us feel the organization has not followed through with our support in the past few seasons by providing what we desire, a return on our investment - winning baseball teams. On top of this, the off the field drama and missteps of the organization have made many of us look like foolish investors wasting our money on a failing stock (especially when compared to other organizations who have accomplished far more with far less support and resources). As far as the book is concerned, I agree that there were many missteps left out of the book, probably due to the flow of the story and limited space to devote to ALL of the issues that went on behind the scenes. Fact is, there have been many miserable decisions over the years. But, as has been discussed ad nauseum across many mediums, the miserable decisions have become commonplace and, from a shareholder's perspective, unacceptable in the last 3 seasons. The stewards built up a massive pile of goodwill with the majority of the fans during their first 8 years and pissed a lot of it away over the last 3 years. Until they get back to proving that they are capable of properly handling the support that loyal fans will continue to give them, they will remain targets to increasing scrutiny.

I'll go out on a limb and predict that the bullpen will not be taxed in 2013 as they were in 2010-2012. Won't go as far to say that the rotation will be lights out, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Lester, Buch, Dempster, and Lackey combine to pitch 700-750 innings (to varying degrees of quality). Guys like Doubront, Morales, De La Rosa, et al should fill out the rest of the expected starter's innings that were being thrust onto various bullpen names and AAAA starting depth guys the past few seasons.

Very odd. Lavarnway was on NESN last week talking about arriving at Ft Myers weeks before the reporting date to work with Tuck.

Understandably, Arod has been at the forefront of today's news. But the bigger issue to me is whether this is a practice among a small set of players or are we seeing the tip of the iceberg of a widespread PED epidemic with players in today's drug prevention and drug testing era. Outside of Arod, the other players mentioned in the story all began their careers after drug testing became official in 2004. If the allegations are true (and the issue is more widespread than a few players), it could be a clear indicator that not only are the masking agents ahead of the testing standards, but the league's penalties for a failed test need to be re-examined as well. I know the player's union would never agree to such a policy, but to me, nothing would fix this problem faster and more efficiently than to institute much higher monetary fines/penalties than the $10K fine for first time offenders. Even for the players making league minimum, $10K is barely enough to make any significant financial impact on the player.