Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

Being the high bidder on top free agents could turn out even worse than it has in the past, now that fewer elite players are hitting the open market and team revenues are increasing, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs writes. Cameron focuses on the Red Sox, who will attempt to find value in a potentially inflationary environment this coming offseason.

Hmmm, I guess they are prepping us for an uneventful off season with lots of whining about how the FA's are over-priced yada yada yada. I'm not freakin interested in their excuses.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hmmm, I guess they are prepping us for an uneventful off season with lots of whining about how the FA's are over-priced yada yada yada. I'm not freakin interested in their excuses.

 

They shouldnt even really be going for the big names. They have a shot to develop over the next 2 yrs. Going out and getting Hamilton just makes their s*** a little shinier.

[Dojji]

Hmmm, I guess they are prepping us for an uneventful off season with lots of whining about how the FA's are over-priced yada yada yada. I'm not freakin interested in their excuses.

 

Is it still an excuse when it's the complete truth? You can't sign an ace when aces aren't out there to sign.

 

If you can't accurately analyze what's out there to work with and make a judgment call of what should be acceptable based on that analysis -- if you insist that they somehow create a championship roster year after year without even trying to determine whether or not the talent even possibly exists to accomplish that feat -- then you are out there on an island and your opinions aren't worth listening to.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hmmm, I guess they are prepping us for an uneventful off season with lots of whining about how the FA's are over-priced yada yada yada. I'm not freakin interested in their excuses.

 

More likely they're going to go for cost controlled players via trade and internal options like Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, De La Rosa, Tazawa, etc.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They shouldnt even really be going for the big names. They have a shot to develop over the next 2 yrs. Going out and getting Hamilton just makes their s*** a little shinier.

 

They can certainly compete next season with just a few moves, most notably to the rotation.

 

Going out and giving Dan Haren a 1 year pillow contract and trading for a guy like Cliff Lee or Tim Lincecum gives them a ferocious rotation.

 

Going out and signing Napoli to play 1B, and signing Melky Cabrera to play LF, or trading for a guy like Shin Soo Choo gives them a deep rotation with high OBP players who can also hit for above average power.

 

They don't have to go get a guy like Hamilton. But that hardly means that they're going to be a s*** team next year.

[a700hitter]

More likely they're going to go for cost controlled players via trade and internal options like Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, De La Rosa, Tazawa, etc.

In a period of inflationary salary costs, I don't see teams being anxious to part with cost controlled players unless they are getting a very big haul of prospects. Hopefully, they resist the urge to trade for a high cost guy like the AGon trade. They gave up good prospects and they still paid $156 million. That was just crazy. The trype of high priced guys for which I'd trade a package of top prospects would be a guy like King Felix.

 

Also, I have seen this ******** two-step dance move from generations of Red Sox FO's. They start planting stories early about how this crop of FA's will be over-valued. They wait for 1 or 2 of them to sign and then you get the planted articles about how the signing salaries have been much higher than anticipated and not in line with players' values. Then we sit back and watch them doi nothing and we argue about whether that is the right move.

 

Picking up some under the radar guys and some trash heap guys will not get us out of 4 th place. I will go beserk if they go down that ******** path once again.

[rjortiz]

They shouldnt even really be going for the big names. They have a shot to develop over the next 2 yrs. Going out and getting Hamilton just makes their s*** a little shinier.

 

What are you talking about? Getting Josh Hamilton makes any team better. If the Red Sox can get him at 4 X 20, they should sign him immediately.

 

BTW, I love it how everyone is writing off the Red Sox for two years. They have a ton of assets, and a large financial advantage over most their competition. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Red Sox back in the playoffs next year.

[Bellhorn04]

BTW, I love it how everyone is writing off the Red Sox for two years. They have a ton of assets, and a large financial advantage over most their competition. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Red Sox back in the playoffs next year.

 

I don't think everybody is writing off the Red Sox for 2013 and 2014. But the reality is, they've missed the playoffs 3 straight years in spite of their large financial advantage. Now they have to virtually start from scratch again. And the Orioles and the A's have joined the Yankees, Rays, Rangers and Angels as our competition for spots. Making the playoffs next year is a tall order indeed, IMO. Not impossible but looking like an outside chance at this point.

[jung]

If they are just competitive in 2013 that would be quite an accomplishment and I think they can get there...actually getting into the "real" post season beyond a 1 game play in will be very difficult in 2013.

 

If they make no missteps at all, then they would likely be in a better spot for 2014 I would hope.

[DocHolliday]

I don't think everybody is writing off the Red Sox for 2013 and 2014. But the reality is, they've missed the playoffs 3 straight years in spite of their large financial advantage. Now they have to virtually start from scratch again. And the Orioles and the A's have joined the Yankees, Rays, Rangers and Angels as our competition for spots. Making the playoffs next year is a tall order indeed, IMO. Not impossible but looking like an outside chance at this point.

 

And, their financial advantage is shrinking as teams benefit from favorable local tv contracts and the national TV deals MLB recently signed. We are seeing more and more talented players signed with the teams that drafted them before they hit FA at the latter end of their prime years.

 

Like SFF said, the future of this team will largely depend on how this team's upcoming players and prospects turn out, supplemented by value adding trades and free agents.

[Bellhorn04]

And, their financial advantage is shrinking as teams benefit from favorable local tv contracts and the national TV deals MLB recently signed. We are seeing more and more talented players signed with the teams that drafted them before they hit FA at the latter end of their prime years.

 

Like SFF said, the future of this team will largely depend on how this team's upcoming players and prospects turn out, supplemented by value adding trades and free agents.

 

Another factor in the financial game is that beginning in 2014 a new and substantial penalty for exceeding the lux tax threshold comes into effect. It has something to do with losing a revenue sharing amount that all teams will receive otherwise. That's why the Yankees keep chirping about getting under the threshold for 2014.

 

The Red Sox do have a huge amount of payroll room for 2013-2014. It'll be very interesting to see how they play it. They will be able to add a chunk this offseason and then add another chunk during the season when other teams are looking to dump salaries. I just hope they are up to this.

[DocHolliday]

Another factor in the financial game is that beginning in 2014 a new and substantial penalty for exceeding the lux tax threshold comes into effect. It has something to do with losing a revenue sharing amount that all teams will receive otherwise. That's why the Yankees keep chirping about getting under the threshold for 2014.

 

The Red Sox do have a huge amount of payroll room for 2013-2014. It'll be very interesting to see how they play it. They will be able to add a chunk this offseason and then add another chunk during the season when other teams are looking to dump salaries. I just hope they are up to this.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say that the payroll for next season will be around $150 M. Right now, they have around $40 M committed to a handful of players for next season. When arbitration raises are factored in, the payroll will be around $80 M before any free agents or trades are considered. That leaves around $70 M to spend on free agents and/or to extend players acquired in trades who might be nearing free agency.

 

The figure will be way below the threshold for the following season that you mention. It puts them among the top spending teams in the league, but maintains the flexibility they had for years when they were competitive. But it also seems to force them to be creative in filling the many holes the team has currently. They obviously won't be able to spend their way to solutions for all of the problems they have. Nor will they be able to trade for solutions for all of the problems they have. With a limited amount of resources, my hope is that they put their focus on improving the primary areas of need, such as the starting pitching and offense at 1B and in the OF.

[Station 13]

Did you know the Red Sox are 29th in walks in baseball? Something must be done.

[jacksonianmarch]

They can certainly compete next season with just a few moves, most notably to the rotation.

 

Going out and giving Dan Haren a 1 year pillow contract and trading for a guy like Cliff Lee or Tim Lincecum gives them a ferocious rotation.

 

Going out and signing Napoli to play 1B, and signing Melky Cabrera to play LF, or trading for a guy like Shin Soo Choo gives them a deep rotation with high OBP players who can also hit for above average power.

 

They don't have to go get a guy like Hamilton. But that hardly means that they're going to be a s*** team next year.

 

Sooooo getting Tim Lincecum, who looks wrecked in the NL West, and Dan Haren, who looks wrecked in the AL West, gives you a ferocious rotation? That's absurd. You don't need guys who can be aces but are flailing currently. You need consistent innings eaters.

[a700hitter]

Sooooo getting Tim Lincecum, who looks wrecked in the NL West, and Dan Haren, who looks wrecked in the AL West, gives you a ferocious rotation? That's absurd. You don't need guys who can be aces but are flailing currently. You need consistent innings eaters.

I agree. We already have a guy like that in Lester and no one trusts him to be a #1 next year. We had two guys like this before Beckett got traded. We should a struggling Lincecum or Haren be such an improvement. These guys are having terribvle seasons with good teams. It's curious how people are willing to take a shot on two guys who are s***ing the bed on good teams and who are probably damaged, but they don't want to touch a young healthy Greinke who is performing well. I just don't get it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Did you know the Red Sox are 29th in walks in baseball? Something must be done.

 

Yet some guys on the site feel comfortable punting a spot in the order for Iglesias

[Palodios]

Sooooo getting Tim Lincecum, who looks wrecked in the NL West, and Dan Haren, who looks wrecked in the AL West, gives you a ferocious rotation? That's absurd. You don't need guys who can be aces but are flailing currently. You need consistent innings eaters.

 

Lincecum had a terrible first half, but after the all star break this year, he's look significantly better. He's one of the most talented pitchers in the majors, and someone definitely worth giving a second chance. If he won the Cy Young in 2013, would ANYONE be surprised?

 

Dan Haren has a 3.49 ERA after the all-star break as well. He'd be good to fill the #3/#4 spot in Boston, but no matter than that. He could end up being a bargain.

[a700hitter]

Lincecum had a terrible first half, but after the all star break this year, he's look significantly better. He's one of the most talented pitchers in the majors, and someone definitely worth giving a second chance. If he won the Cy Young in 2013, would ANYONE be surprised?

 

Dan Haren has a 3.49 ERA after the all-star break as well. He'd be good to fill the #3/#4 spot in Boston, but no matter than that. He could end up being a bargain.

I think pitching will be at a premium this off season. Haren will not be cheap, and I don't think the Giants will sell low on Lincecum.

[Station 13]

Pass on Lincecum, he's owed $20M for 2013. He's also been giving up more home runs and he plays in a park that his team hits only 25 or so HR all season at home. He's been in decline and extremely risky.

 

Spending $20-24M could get Kuroda for 2 year or Kyle Loshe.

[example1]

Pass on Lincecum, he's owed $20M for 2013. He's also been giving up more home runs and he plays in a park that his team hits only 25 or so HR all season at home. He's been in decline and extremely risky.

 

Spending $20-24M could get Kuroda for 2 year or Kyle Loshe.

 

I doubt Kuroda gets out of NY if he's looking at 10-12m per year for two years. Just sayin.

 

 

This will definitely be an interesting offseason for the Sox. Usually I have some idea of what I think they should do, who they should target, etc., but this offseason is a bit different. There just aren't great options obviously available through FA or trade, as far as I can see.

 

I envision a rotation that includes Buchholz, Lester, Doubront and de la Rosa as a starting point. Perhaps Morales fits in there somewhere, but I actually think they have a bullpen that can be good enough to contend with a few additional pieces, and Morales might fit best in there.

 

If they could move Lester for a few AA or AAA high ceiling pitchers I would have no problem with that, but most teams wouldn't be agreeable to that. Of course, the Sox have the money to pay a majority of his salary too, so perhaps a free Jon Lester for a few good prospects who are 2-3 years away would be a good start.

[rjortiz]

Yet some guys on the site feel comfortable punting a spot in the order for Iglesias

 

The rest of the lineup are all pretty undisciplined. Hard to blame a guy who has been up for a month on that total. If the Red Sox go get Napoli, they would double their BB% at just first base.

[jacksonianmarch]

Let's look at what the projected roster is right now, without any additions

 

C- Lavarnway

1B- Saltalamacchia

2B- Pedroia

SS- Iglesias

3B- Middlebrooks

LF- Nava

CF- Ellsbury

RF- Reddick

DH- Gomez

 

That's your lineup that is under contract. They might re-sign Papi, they might re-sign Ross. But as of right now, that is the lineup. That lineup sucks *******. They cannot feasibly punt the SS position if their offense is that feeble.

[Laser Show]

Reddick? You mean Kalish right?

[Palodios]

Pass on Lincecum, he's owed $20M for 2013. He's also been giving up more home runs and he plays in a park that his team hits only 25 or so HR all season at home. He's been in decline and extremely risky.

 

Spending $20-24M could get Kuroda for 2 year or Kyle Loshe.

 

I want to emphasize this question:

 

Would you be legitimately surprised if Lincecum won the Cy Young in 2013?

 

I'm not saying to sell the farm-- At most, I'd give up Doubront + a mid-tier prospect. But this team needs a bonafide ace, and the only other guys even in the conversation are Greinke/Peavy/Johnson who have plenty of their own question marks.

[rjortiz]

Let's look at what the projected roster is right now, without any additions

 

C- Lavarnway

1B- Saltalamacchia

2B- Pedroia

SS- Iglesias

3B- Middlebrooks

LF- Nava

CF- Ellsbury

RF- Reddick

DH- Gomez

 

That's your lineup that is under contract. They might re-sign Papi, they might re-sign Ross. But as of right now, that is the lineup. That lineup sucks *******. They cannot feasibly punt the SS position if their offense is that feeble.

 

The chances of that being the lineup are pretty low.

[Behindenemylines]

The chances of that being the lineup is zero!!!!!!!! Salty is not playing 1B. That is like me saying the $panks let Grandy walk and Andrew Jones is next years CF. Has Salty even played first before? He doesn't even know what a first base glove looks like. Papi is resigned, and one or possible two new outfielders on either side of Ellsbury. The 1B is not even on the current roster. Go Toronto tonight!

[SoxSport]

Yet some guys on the site feel comfortable punting a spot in the order for Iglesias

 

Iglesias clearly isn't the problem.

[Laser Show]

I wonder if it would be possible to pry David Wright away from the Mets.

[example1]

I want to emphasize this question:

 

Would you be legitimately surprised if Lincecum won the Cy Young in 2013?

 

I'm not saying to sell the farm-- At most, I'd give up Doubront + a mid-tier prospect. But this team needs a bonafide ace, and the only other guys even in the conversation are Greinke/Peavy/Johnson who have plenty of their own question marks.

 

They are going to have money and they have a spot in the rotation. I think Lincecum is a better pitcher than a lot of the other names out there (Haren, Ervin Santana, Garza) and he could be a novelty in the AL East for a year. He is expensive, but his contract is short (one season) and, as you noted, his bounce back potential is decent. If he returned to form, the Sox might be able to re-sign him and would have a special pitcher on their hands.

 

Of course, that only applies if there is nothing wrong with his arm. His FB velocity is down to about 90mph from a high of 94 a few years ago. He's got a small frame and a weird delivery and his shoulder may have seen its best days pass by.

 

I wonder if it would be possible to pry David Wright away from the Mets.

 

Where would Wright play? Move Middlebrooks to 1B maybe? With Xander on his heels I've thought that moving Middlebrooks across the diamond would actually make some sense.

 

I just hate the idea of parting with any decent prospects for guys like Wright or other veterans with no contracts left.

[Palodios]

Of course, that only applies if there is nothing wrong with his arm. His FB velocity is down to about 90mph from a high of 94 a few years ago. He's got a small frame and a weird delivery and his shoulder may have seen its best days pass by.

 

Obviously I would expect the Red Sox work very hard at determining whether or not he's done or not. I'm just pointing to him as a very good option if he's healthy.

 

Where would Wright play? Move Middlebrooks to 1B maybe? With Xander on his heels I've thought that moving Middlebrooks across the diamond would actually make some sense.

 

I just hate the idea of parting with any decent prospects for guys like Wright or other veterans with no contracts left.

 

I really don't like seeing good position players move from anywhere to first base. An .850 OPS player's value turns from "very very good" to "decent" instantly. Wright just doesn't fit what the Red Sox need.