Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

a700hitter · August 30, 2012

My God, we are in for some long off season. It's not even September and our season is over. Horrible just horrible.

RedSoxfanforlife305 · August 30, 2012

My God, we are in for some long off season. It's not even September and our season is over. Horrible just horrible.

Thank god I work almost full time so I barely see any games

RedSoxNC84 · August 30, 2012

Thank god I work almost full time so I barely see any games

Same, my 50+ hour work weeks have been a blessing lately.

RedSoxfanforlife305 · August 30, 2012

Same, my 50+ hour work weeks have been a blessing lately.

Jesus, I hope you're enjoying that overtime pay haha. I went over 40 this week and to be honest I don't think it's worth it. I like having money and all but I don't want to have to work my ass of for it.

RedSoxNC84 · August 30, 2012

Jesus, I hope you're enjoying that overtime pay haha. I went over 40 this week and to be honest I don't think it's worth it. I like having money and all but I don't want to have to work my ass of for it.

Haha can't enjoy it when I'm always working.. At least that way I can't spend it though.

example1 · August 30, 2012

The Red Sox really like elite talent. Just to refresh my memory about who some players are who are considered "elite" I took a look at all top 5 picks in the draft from 1997 to now. The list below includes only players who made it to at least AAA or MLB. As you will realize, there's plenty of elite talent, a few of whom the Sox have already dated...

1B

Adrian Gonzalez 2000

Eric Hosmer 2008

Pat Burrell 1998

2B

Rickie Weeks 2003

3B

Alex Gordon 2005

Evan Longoria 2006

Josh Vitters 2007

Mark Teixeira 2001

Mike Moustakas 2007

Pedro Alvarez 2008

Ryan Braun 2005

Ryan Zimmerman 2005

C

Buster Posey 2008

Jeff Clement 2005

Joe Mauer 2001

Matt Wieters 2007

Tony Sanchez 2009

Eric Munson 1999

CF

Dustin Ackley 2009

IF

Corey Myers 1999

Luis Montanez 2000

OF

Bryce Harper 2010

Chris Lubanski 2003

Corey Patterson 1998

Delmon Young 2003

J.D. Drew 1998

Josh Hamilton 1999

P

Adam Johnson 2000

Adam Loewen 2002

Brad Lincoln 2006

Brandon Morrow 2006

Brian Matusz 2008

Bryan Bullington 2002

Clint Everts 2002

Daniel Moskos 2007

Danny Hultzen 2011

David Price 2007

Dewon Brazelton 2001

Drew Pomeranz 2010

Gavin Floyd 2001

Greg Reynolds 2006

Jeff Austin 1998

Jeff Niemann 2004

Josh Beckett 1999

Justin Verlander 2004

Justin Wayne 2000

Luke Hochevar 2006

Mark Mulder 1998

Mark Prior 2001

Mark Rogers 2004

Mike Stodolka 2000

Philip Humber 2004

Tim Stauffer 2003

Trevor Bauer 2011

Stephen Strasburg 2009

SS

B.J. Upton 2002

Christian Colon 2010

Justin Upton 2005

Manny Machado 2010

Tim Beckham 2008

Clearly some of these players are not available, while others are pretty bad. I would be thinking about guys who are either unproven yet (Garrett Cole--unlisted--/Trevor Bauer if they wanted to shoot big) or guys who are somewhere between a bonafide star and a flop. For instance players like Alex Gordon or Justin Upton (especially if the Sox move Ellsbury) could make sense.

SCM33 · August 30, 2012

Josh Hamilton will likely require a contract the likes of which the Sox just dumped in Crawford and Gonzalez. It would be ridiculous to commit to another huge contract for a player who perhaps doesn't deserve it after the moves that have been made. It's like breaking up with a girl who tried to set you on fire while you slept and immediately getting into a relationship with someone you know is going to do exactly the same thing.

Hopefully Emmz hasn't purchased a lighter recently.

If Gomez is your starting 1B in April then it will be a loooooooooooooooooong season. What offense you get from him he will give back up in the field. I think J Upton has a no trade clause in his contract and the Red Sox are one of the teams he can nix a trade to. Good young player (the kind they should be looking for), but he would have to be talked into coming here. Some guys know that they just don't want to play under the microscope of Boston.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Mauro-Gomez

Why? Hes done nothing but hit in the minors with what looks to be a decent OB/OPS skill set. Hes never gotten the opportunity. Youkilis was the same age before given an opportunity.

SP-
You have Lester, Buchholz and Doubront slated as the 1-3. Lackey will get a fair shake at #4. In terms of free agents, you have the big name in Greinke, who would suck in Boston. You have some other quality guys like Edwin Jackson and Kuroda under the radar as well. And then there are the under the radar moves that could better your rotation on minimal risk moves

1. Colby Lewis- he plays in a bandbox, he's coming off elbow surgery and is a strikeout pitcher. He likely wont be ready for the start of 2013, but he has the stuff and the results to be a good 1 yr flier kind of pitcher. And if the team sucks, but he is solid coming back from injury, he could bring something back in trade

2. Jorge de la Rosa- the guy was good in Colorado before arm issues arose. He's had trouble in his return from TJS, but might be able to pitch in the bigs this September. Provided a good physical in the winter, he could be an under the radar signing with big implications come next yr

3. Brandon McCarthy- this guy has had trouble staying healthy, but he is a sinkerballer who is currently #2 in Oakland on a competitive team. When he's on the mound, he's been good, and with his injury history, he should come cheap

Franklin Morales will be in the rotation. Hes looked better than Doubront IMO.

My God, we are in for some long off season. It's not even September and our season is over. Horrible just horrible.

Come on man......you knew it was over before it even started. No need to be dramatic.

Jesus, I hope you're enjoying that overtime pay haha. I went over 40 this week and to be honest I don't think it's worth it. I like having money and all but I don't want to have to work my ass of for it.

I work between 48-64 hours a week. Overtime is like gold. Most people would kill to make $48 dollars an hour.......I cant turn down money knowing some people dont have jobs at all. Im very grateful for what I have.

DocHolliday · August 30, 2012

The Red Sox really like elite talent. Just to refresh my memory about who some players are who are considered "elite" I took a look at all top 5 picks in the draft from 1997 to now. The list below includes only players who made it to at least AAA or MLB. As you will realize, there's plenty of elite talent, a few of whom the Sox have already dated...

1B
Adrian Gonzalez 2000
Eric Hosmer 2008
Pat Burrell 1998

2B
Rickie Weeks 2003

3B
Alex Gordon 2005
Evan Longoria 2006
Josh Vitters 2007
Mark Teixeira 2001
Mike Moustakas 2007
Pedro Alvarez 2008
Ryan Braun 2005
Ryan Zimmerman 2005

C
Buster Posey 2008
Jeff Clement 2005
Joe Mauer 2001
Matt Wieters 2007
Tony Sanchez 2009
Eric Munson 1999

CF
Dustin Ackley 2009

IF
Corey Myers 1999
Luis Montanez 2000

OF
Bryce Harper 2010
Chris Lubanski 2003
Corey Patterson 1998
Delmon Young 2003
J.D. Drew 1998
Josh Hamilton 1999

P
Adam Johnson 2000
Adam Loewen 2002
Brad Lincoln 2006
Brandon Morrow 2006
Brian Matusz 2008
Bryan Bullington 2002
Clint Everts 2002
Daniel Moskos 2007
Danny Hultzen 2011
David Price 2007
Dewon Brazelton 2001
Drew Pomeranz 2010
Gavin Floyd 2001
Greg Reynolds 2006
Jeff Austin 1998
Jeff Niemann 2004
Josh Beckett 1999
Justin Verlander 2004
Justin Wayne 2000
Luke Hochevar 2006
Mark Mulder 1998
Mark Prior 2001
Mark Rogers 2004
Mike Stodolka 2000
Philip Humber 2004
Tim Stauffer 2003
Trevor Bauer 2011
Stephen Strasburg 2009

SS
B.J. Upton 2002
Christian Colon 2010
Justin Upton 2005
Manny Machado 2010
Tim Beckham 2008

Clearly some of these players are not available, while others are pretty bad. I would be thinking about guys who are either unproven yet (Garrett Cole--unlisted--/Trevor Bauer if they wanted to shoot big) or guys who are somewhere between a bonafide star and a flop. For instance players like Alex Gordon or Justin Upton (especially if the Sox move Ellsbury) could make sense.

Gordon and Hosmer from the Royals are both intriguing to me. Both are under control through 2015, with Gordon under contract for a lit $11 M per season and Hosmer Arb eligible for the first time this offseason.

Just wondering how the Sox are going to be able to trade for BOTH an elite starter AND a young, talented, cost controlled position player.

If I had to pick one to acquire through FA, it would be the position player. This organization has an awful track record recently evaluating FA pitchers. Of course they aren't going to find the young, talented, cost controlled position player in FA. Instead, they will find a plethora of guys who won't command top dollar but can play adequate defense and can be suitable 5/6 hitters (Napoli, Ross, etc).

RedSoxfanforlife305 · August 30, 2012

I work between 48-64 hours a week. Overtime is like gold. Most people would kill to make $48 dollars an hour.......I cant turn down money knowing some people dont have jobs at all. Im very grateful for what I have.

I'll just say this one last thing and be done with it unless it gets brought up in the h11am thread so I don't hijack the thread.

I've expressed my feelings toward law enforcement many times on the site. That's the only thing I see myself doing and I have no backup plan because I've had the mindset that I'm going to be a police officer. Right now isn't the best time to be a police officer because they're not hiring but I'm willing to take that risk because that's what I love. What I grew up saying I'm gonna do everyday for the rest of my life.I'd work a 9-5 every single day as a police officer and I'm not even kidding. However, you and NCsoxfan are adults. I'm 18, just started college and working nearly 40 hours a week. At my age it shouldn't be that way. I want to enjoy times with my friends, I want to be able to watch the red sox play even if they do suck, I want to be able to just relax at home without having to do anything, etc. I'm grateful I have a job but it's literally taking my life away. I'm paying bills that I shouldn't be and it's just all so complicated. Besides I make only 8.50 an hour so it'd be making 12.75 for overtime. Not really worth it for me and my opinion.

If you're gonna respond just quote my post and put it in h11am thread so it doesn't get interfere with this thread, thanks.

a700hitter · August 30, 2012

Hopefully Emmz hasn't purchased a lighter recently.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Mauro-Gomez

Why? Hes done nothing but hit in the minors with what looks to be a decent OB/OPS skill set. Hes never gotten the opportunity. Youkilis was the same age before given an opportunity

Plus, he has hit admirably in his MLB opportunities. I think that he has more power than Youk.

Franklin Morales will be in the rotation. Hes looked better than Doubront IMO.

I am not sold on Morales as a regular rotation guy. If we get 2 legitimate good starters to go with Buchholz and L ester, you would pick Morales over Doubront and Lackey? I am not disagreeing. I'm just not sold on him.

Come on man......you knew it was over before it even started. No need to be dramatic.

When you have a loved one with a terminal illness, it still sucks when they die. Sure I knew the Sox had little hope from the get go, but the wheels fell off rather quickly.

jung · August 30, 2012

Morales has looked better against bad teams but has not looked better than Felix against good teams at least in my view. That does worry me about Morales. I would not be surprised if the back end of the rotation next year turned out to be something of a proving ground for some guys including Morales unless he proves out so much over the remaining games that he earns a definite spot.

The pen will likely be interesting for next season as well. This is two years running that we have just burned the pen completely out way before the season ended. People questioned my comment about the pen being burned in August of this season. Do we want to question that again? When your pen gets to the point where the pitchers in it are one turn from done, your pen is burned out. That one remaining stint puts them into the need for significant rest. Do that to them two and three times in a season and it will be an entire off season before they can come back. This is twice now that the pen has gotten to the point where they were down to one or two guys that could go at all before they would have to sit for significant rest. They are so bad off now that Bard is back having hit 10 batters in his AAA work. Do you really think he is back cause he is ready?

SoxFanForsyth · August 30, 2012

Been studying for the CPA exam, so I haven't been around much lately. But here are some interesting options.

1. Kendrys Morales. Could be exactly what the Sox are looking for. A guy who may be a little overlooked (See: Trumbo, Pujols), but has tremendous upside.

He actually sprays the ball all over the field, not just a pull hitter. He's a guy who may be a bit underappreciated by the Angels right now, and the Sox could bite on that and get a 30+ HR first baseman.

2. Mauro Gomez - I was initially down on him, but maybe he's proving me wrong. He's hitting the ball very well, but has a .410 BABIP. That's extremely high, and will obviously regress. Still, he crushed in AAA too, so he deserves a chance. Nelson Cruz was 27 before he got his first full time gig, and he is a pretty damn good player too. That may be what we have here.

3. Two players the Red Sox have to check in on, no matter how ridiculous it sounds, is Mark Trumbo and Mike Stanton. Period. Don't miss out on a deal just because you assumed they were unavailable.

example1 · August 30, 2012

My God, we are in for some long off season. It's not even September and our season is over. Horrible just horrible.

I hate to say it, but if the Sox are going to have a bad season they should have a REALLY bad season. They should aim to get the best draft pick they possibly can at this point. While I don't want them throwing games, I dont hate it when they lose at this point. If they can get a protected pick then they can sign FAs without worrying about draft picks. They should have their best draft spot in years, and every spot up the list makes their choices better.

If they are in rebuilding mode they should look for the best picks possible.

a700hitter · August 30, 2012

I hate to say it, but if the Sox are going to have a bad season they should have a REALLY bad season. They should aim to get the best draft pick they possibly can at this point. While I don't want them throwing games, I dont hate it when they lose at this point. If they can get a protected pick then they can sign FAs without worrying about draft picks. They should have their best draft spot in years, and every spot up the list makes their choices better.

If they are in rebuilding mode they should look for the best picks possible.

It's just so hard to watch.

example1 · August 30, 2012

It's just so hard to watch.

I'd say that's the benefit of letting the kids play more. I will definitely pay attention when Lavarnway or Kalish are batting, or if Iglesias has to make a play in the field.

This too shal pass my friend.

We can also keep rooting for the Yankees to continue their slow descent. It would be great if they were nudged out of the playoffs by a few hot wild-card teams. I can at least hope.

Behindenemylines · August 30, 2012

Kendrys Morales is an interesting player. He seems to be an extra piece for the Angels. With the young guys they have now he might not fit in there and this might be the type of player the Sox could get.

SoxFanForsyth · August 31, 2012

Here are some thoughts for 2013....

Catcher-
I'd have Lavarnway carrying the majority of the load here. I'd shop Salty around, but I doubt there are many takers. I think Salty and Lavs split a lot of the time behind the dish. If Ortiz walks, Salty could try his hand as a DH or if the sox dont make a huge splash at 1b this offseason, he could move to 1b

First base-
The Free Agent options suck considerably, so what do you have to lose with Mauro Gomez? I would also bring in a lefty veteran off the scrap heap who could theoretically platoon with him should he show he completely sucks vs righties. Somebody like Aubrey Huff, who has come through 2 injury riddled yrs, but who has had success in the AL East and who, when healthy, can still draw walks and hit for power. And, if he doesnt play well or stay healthy, he's a scrap heap signee and you could dump him without trouble. Also, depending on the DH spot, you could rotate Salty to 1b vs righties if Gomez struggles

2B-
Pedroia, no doubts there

SS-
I dump Aviles this offseason. There is no reason for it. I'd have Iglesias and Ciriaco splitting time so the kid doesnt get overwhelmed by big league pitching right off the bat. Plus, it gives you a chance to see if Ciriaco is just a one hit wonder, or someone who can actually play in this league

3B-
Middlebrooks, no questions asked

LF-
Re-sign Cody Ross to a 3 yr $21 million deal. He's still young enough, he loves Fenway and if you could lock in a mid .800OPS guy with 20+HRs for the next 3 yrs, you do it

CF-
Ellsbury until he gets dealt midseason

RF-
I think the sox need one big splash this offseason, and I think it could come in the form of Justin Upton. He'd absolutely dominate Fenway and hasnt been healthy this yr, which is why the season has sucked for him. A package of Kalish plus one of the B's should headline it. I am starting to have my doubts as to whether Kalish will ever be the big leaguer the sox billed him as

DH-
Ortiz is the obvious choice, but in the interest of building for the future, I think the sox should offer the qualifying amount, take the pick and watch him go off in the sunset. Lavarnway, Salty, Gomez, et al could use more reps and if the sox arent competing next yr, why bother with a guy who will turn 37, who is breaking down and is a malcontent if things arent perfect?

SP-
You have Lester, Buchholz and Doubront slated as the 1-3. Lackey will get a fair shake at #4. In terms of free agents, you have the big name in Greinke, who would suck in Boston. You have some other quality guys like Edwin Jackson and Kuroda under the radar as well. And then there are the under the radar moves that could better your rotation on minimal risk moves

1. Colby Lewis- he plays in a bandbox, he's coming off elbow surgery and is a strikeout pitcher. He likely wont be ready for the start of 2013, but he has the stuff and the results to be a good 1 yr flier kind of pitcher. And if the team sucks, but he is solid coming back from injury, he could bring something back in trade

2. Jorge de la Rosa- the guy was good in Colorado before arm issues arose. He's had trouble in his return from TJS, but might be able to pitch in the bigs this September. Provided a good physical in the winter, he could be an under the radar signing with big implications come next yr

3. Brandon McCarthy- this guy has had trouble staying healthy, but he is a sinkerballer who is currently #2 in Oakland on a competitive team. When he's on the mound, he's been good, and with his injury history, he should come cheap

Couple things:

1. Rubby De La Rosa will almost certainly be in the rotation. Kevin Kennedy was on his show on XM (Power Alley) and was saying that De La Rosa would be in the Sox rotation next year, and not as a 4 or 5. At the top of the rotation.

On top of that, Keith Law said that if De La Rosa can throw his slider from the same arm slot as his FB (which just takes a little coaching, not a huge transformation), he's at least a #2, but could easily be a #1. He's very high on both Webster and De La Rosa, and actually said today in his chat that he would rank the Sox pitching prospects as 1. De La Rosa, 2 Webster, 3. Barnes.

It's amazing to me that the Sox picked up 2 pitchers better than Barnes in that huge salary dump.

2. I think the Red Sox make a trade for Kendrys Morales this offseason. He's in the last year of arbitration in 2013, so he'd come pretty cheap. He sprays the ball all over, and likely wouldn't cost a whole lot considering the year he's having, his injury history, and the fact that the Angels have Trumbo and Pujols at 1B. He could almost certainly be had for a package around Brandon Jacobs.

3. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox gave Dan Haren a 1 year, $15mm deal as a pillow contract. That seems exactly like the kind of deal they'll be looking for.

4. They'll almost certainly lock up Cody Ross to a 3 year/21mm deal (Willingham deal is almost a perfect comp). But I think he'll play RF. He's not a great LF with that monster. He's never played big walls very well.

5. I think they'll make a trade for Upton, as well. Kalish + Bradley would likely get it done, potentially with a Pimental as the 3rd piece. I think the Sox would also consider locking up Ellsbury, since they know he can handle it here. So that makes Bradley expendable.

So now you're looking at a lineup of:

Ellsbury CF

Pedroia 2B

Upton LF

Ortiz DH

Morales 1B

Middlebrooks 3B

Ross RF

Lavarnway C

Iglesias SS

And a rotation of:

Lester

Haren

Buchholz

De La Rosa

Lackey

That would certainly be a team that is ready to compete, and would keep the Sox from having to give up Bogaerts, Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, etc.

And as a side note, I know you said that Upton would cost one of the killer B's, but there's a pretty large disparity of talent between Bogaerts and the other 2, I think. I don't think they'll give up Bogaerts (or have to) for anyone other than Felix or Mike Stanton.

DocHolliday · August 31, 2012

Couple things:

1. Rubby De La Rosa will almost certainly be in the rotation. Kevin Kennedy was on his show on XM (Power Alley) and was saying that De La Rosa would be in the Sox rotation next year, and not as a 4 or 5. At the top of the rotation.

On top of that, Keith Law said that if De La Rosa can throw his slider from the same arm slot as his FB (which just takes a little coaching, not a huge transformation), he's at least a #2, but could easily be a #1. He's very high on both Webster and De La Rosa, and actually said today in his chat that he would rank the Sox pitching prospects as 1. De La Rosa, 2 Webster, 3. Barnes.

It's amazing to me that the Sox picked up 2 pitchers better than Barnes in that huge salary dump.

2. I think the Red Sox make a trade for Kendrys Morales this offseason. He's in the last year of arbitration in 2013, so he'd come pretty cheap. He sprays the ball all over, and likely wouldn't cost a whole lot considering the year he's having, his injury history, and the fact that the Angels have Trumbo and Pujols at 1B. He could almost certainly be had for a package around Brandon Jacobs.

3. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox gave Dan Haren a 1 year, $15mm deal as a pillow contract. That seems exactly like the kind of deal they'll be looking for.

4. They'll almost certainly lock up Cody Ross to a 3 year/21mm deal (Willingham deal is almost a perfect comp). But I think he'll play RF. He's not a great LF with that monster. He's never played big walls very well.

5. I think they'll make a trade for Upton, as well. Kalish + Bradley would likely get it done, potentially with a Pimental as the 3rd piece. I think the Sox would also consider locking up Ellsbury, since they know he can handle it here. So that makes Bradley expendable.

So now you're looking at a lineup of:

Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Upton LF
Ortiz DH
Morales 1B
Middlebrooks 3B
Ross RF
Lavarnway C
Iglesias SS

And a rotation of:

Lester
Haren
Buchholz
De La Rosa
Lackey

That would certainly be a team that is ready to compete, and would keep the Sox from having to give up Bogaerts, Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, etc.

And as a side note, I know you said that Upton would cost one of the killer B's, but there's a pretty large disparity of talent between Bogaerts and the other 2, I think. I don't think they'll give up Bogaerts (or have to) for anyone other than Felix or Mike Stanton.

If you're going to extend Ellsbury, the starting point has to be Crawford's contract (7 years, $142 M). The 7 years would cover his age 29-35 seasons. $ wise, you'd be looking at around $20 M AAV.

There has been talk that Ellsbury isn't worth that kind of $ because he's been hurt and hasn't put up the deserving numbers outside of last season. With Ells being so close to FA and Boras being his agent, you'd have to think that they will have to be blown away to accept an extension.

If you're committed to him LT, you make the deal this offseason so you can make the most of his prime years. Otherwise you risk him having another break out year next season and having to pay him more to stay while also losing an additional prime year. Waiting to resign him as a FA, you also only gain a compensation pick.

Say the extension talks don't get anywhere, you have to explore trade options and get back a piece for the LT or to trade to acquire a guy like J Upton. Perhaps the Rangers decide to let Hamilton walk- they aren't likely to move Kinsler into CF and their other OF won't be able to replace his production. They also have a log jam in the infield with guys like Profar and Olt coming up and Beltre, Young, Andrus, and Kinsler committed long term. Maybe an Ellsbury for Olt swap (or a similar type of deal with another team) would be a possibility.

Either way, the direction of their offseason and LT plans (outside of managerial or upper management changes) start with what they do with Ellsbury.

win red sox · August 31, 2012

The offseason will be based mostly off of Ellsbury signing an extension, I don't see it happening. I would sign Hamilton 5/125 with 10 million buyout in the 5th year and then flip Ellsbury and Lester to Texas for Moreland (.880ops and not elgible for free agency until 2017) and either Buckel or Mendez. Ben should then make a call to kevin towers and acquire Justin upton, I imagine something along the lines of Brentz,Iglesias,Cecchini, and Aceves. Ben should make an aggresive offer to Edwin Jackson 3/42 and make the qualifying offer to Ortiz. Ben will have plenty of pitching options in 2014 with Barnes,Webster, Buckel or Mendez.

Kalish cf

Pedrioa 2b

Hamilton lf

Upton rf

Ortiz dh

Middlebrooks 3b

Moreland 1b

Lavs C

Aviles ss

Bench

Ciriaco utilty

Sands of/1b

Sweeney of

Buchholz

Jackson

Doubrant

Lackey

Delarosa

Bailey

Bard

Breslow

Morales

Miller

Tazawa

Carpenter

Wilson

I'm estimating the payroll would be around 145million, If Kalish struggles, hopefully Bradley would be ready around the all star break, I know I might catch some flack about Hamilton, but he is a #3 hitter we need, and lets don't say his contract would cripple us, for crist sakes were not the Twins.

jacksonianmarch · August 31, 2012

De la Rosa isn't ranked above Barnes, and if he's at the top of your rotation next yr, then the fens will be a ghost land. If he was that good, wouldn't you think he'd be starting in LA right now? Especially with Billingsley out for the yr? He's a kid with a solid fastball-slider combo with nothing after it and spotty location. If he's in the bigs next yr, he'd be most effective out of the pen. Stop pumping tires

mvp 78 · August 31, 2012

I heard Rubby is more likely sloted for RP as well.

I tend to avoid hearing Kevin Kennedy speak. He's a moron.

Palodios · August 31, 2012

It looks like the Dodgers are looking desperately for a closer. I wonder if the Red Sox could package Lackey and Bailey together...

Bellhorn04 · August 31, 2012

It looks like the Dodgers are looking desperately for a closer. I wonder if the Red Sox could package Lackey and Bailey together...

If Lackey rebounds well from TJ he could be a good value over the next 3 years. We owe him 30.5 million for those 3 years.

Orange Juiced · August 31, 2012

If Lackey rebounds well from TJ he could be a good value over the next 3 years. We owe him 30.5 million for those 3 years.

All Lackey has to do to be worth $10 million a year (which, thanks to his TJ surgery and the clause it kicked in on his contract, is basically what the Sox owe him) is to be worth about 1.8 WAR. According to Fangraphs, a win is worth:

2013: $5.25m

2014: $5.51m

2015: $5.79m

So over the course of 3 years, 3 WAR will be worth $16.55 million. If he'd cost $30.5 million, he needs to produce just 1.84 WAR a season.

As hard as it is to believe, he *almost* got there in 2010, when he went 14-11 with a 4.40 era for the Sox. That year he was worth 1.5 WAR. In the three years before last year (so we're looking at 2008, 2009, and 2010, he was worth a combined 6.4 WAR. And those years weren't exactly Cy Young Award caliber years:

2008: 12-5, 3.75 era, 1.23 whip, 161 ip

2009: 11-8, 3.83 era, 1.27 whip, 176 ip

2010: 14-11, 4.40 era, 1.42 whip, 215 ip

So he really only has to put up about a line of: 12-8, 3.80 era, 1.25 whip, in 180 innings and he's pretty much got those 2 WAR.

Now, can he even do that? I don't know. But at this point, his contract certainly isn't crazy bad. We have the TJ surgery to thank for that.

SoxSport · August 31, 2012

The talk is Aviles may wind up in St Louis to replace Furcal. I believe he has cleared waivers.

That would free up Ciriaco and Iggy to play SS, and maybe Valencia to play 3B.

rjortiz · August 31, 2012

All Lackey has to do to be worth $10 million a year (which, thanks to his TJ surgery and the clause it kicked in on his contract, is basically what the Sox owe him) is to be worth about 1.8 WAR. According to Fangraphs, a win is worth:

2013: $5.25m
2014: $5.51m
2015: $5.79m

So over the course of 3 years, 3 WAR will be worth $16.55 million. If he'd cost $30.5 million, he needs to produce just 1.84 WAR a season.

As hard as it is to believe, he *almost* got there in 2010, when he went 14-11 with a 4.40 era for the Sox. That year he was worth 1.5 WAR. In the three years before last year (so we're looking at 2008, 2009, and 2010, he was worth a combined 6.4 WAR. And those years weren't exactly Cy Young Award caliber years:

2008: 12-5, 3.75 era, 1.23 whip, 161 ip
2009: 11-8, 3.83 era, 1.27 whip, 176 ip
2010: 14-11, 4.40 era, 1.42 whip, 215 ip

So he really only has to put up about a line of: 12-8, 3.80 era, 1.25 whip, in 180 innings and he's pretty much got those 2 WAR.

Now, can he even do that? I don't know. But at this point, his contract certainly isn't crazy bad. We have the TJ surgery to thank for that.

He's given the Red Sox below replacement level production for a $90 million starting pitcher. It's an awful contract.

SoxSport · August 31, 2012

Bailey is a good enough closer if he can stay healthy. Their problem is they haven't had a setup guy all season, and it has thrown the bullpen out of whack. That's where Bard could firm things up if he can get back to his setup form.

SoxSport · August 31, 2012

I heard Rubby is more likely sloted for RP as well.

He'll be a top of rotation candidate first. Ace potential there in a couple years.

rjortiz · August 31, 2012

He'll be a top of rotation candidate first. Ace potential there in a couple years.

He doesn't have a quality off-speed pitch, or the control to be considered top of the rotation material. He's a bullpen guy right now, and a three at his peak.

jacksonianmarch · August 31, 2012

He has a good slider and fastball. The Boston media continues to sell the Rubby kid as something he isn't. If he was a starter, he'd be in the dodgers rotation already

Sign In

Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

Recommended Posts

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Create an account or sign in to comment

Create an account

Sign in

Member Statistics

Prospect News & Highlights

Recent News

Notes & Rumors

Recent Blog Entries

Recent Status Updates