Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

Why is it abhorrent? A major league baseball team is an entertainment entity at least as much as it is a sports entity. The audience's needs and expectations are taken into consideration. Red Sox fans were sending a message that they weren't prepared to be patient. When Epstein uttered the words 'bridge year', the general reaction was 'f*** bridge years, this is the Red Sox and we want to go after another title right now.'

 

I'm not trying to defend any of it. It has been a catastrophe. But I think we need to learn some lessons from it.

They own the stupidity of their own moves. We didn't make them make stupid moves. They could have opted for smart moves. Plenty of teams were making smart moves during this period.

[Bellhorn04]

They own the stupidity of their own moves. We didn't make them make stupid moves. They could have opted for smart moves. Plenty of teams were making smart moves during this period.

 

No argument there.

 

Needless to say this upcoming offseason will be interesting. As I said before I think the team is going to be bad again next year because there's no way to fix it that fast. It'll be tempting to do something like sign Josh Hamilton, but in the long run that's probably a stupid move.

[a700hitter]

No argument there.

 

Needless to say this upcoming offseason will be interesting. As I said before I think the team is going to be bad again next year because there's no way to fix it that fast. It'll be tempting to do something like sign Josh Hamilton, but in the long run that's probably a stupid move.

They have a huge opportunity to make this team competitive for 2013. They have a tremendous amount of payroll flexibility. I don't know why you are so willing to let them off the hook for 2013. If they make smart moves, there is no reason why the 2013 Red Sox cannot be a competitive team.

[SouthieFanatic]

Has anyone heard anything on the roster for the fall league? I just wanna see Barnes, Bradley and Bogaerts there and i'll be happy

[DocHolliday]

They own the stupidity of their own moves. We didn't make them make stupid moves. They could have opted for smart moves. Plenty of teams were making smart moves during this period.

 

What I still will never understand is why the majority of mistake decisons during this period were made with the "pink hat" fans interests as top priority. It seems as though the FO thought process was "as long as we keep the pink hat fans happy, revenue will continue to flow in. Plus, the hardcore, critical, 365 days a year fans will continue to follow no matter what - because it's their nature, in their blood, etc."

 

Going forward, their mindset needs to be "we will make decisions that will benefit our organization in the short and long term because that will lead to prolonged winning. When the team wins, our 365 day a year, hardcore, critical fans will be satisfied. And, because the team is winning, we also keep the pink hat fans interested and the revenue streams they provide."

 

Never again should baseball decisions take a backseat to the business decisions.

[Bellhorn04]

What I still will never understand is why the majority of mistake decisons during this period were made with the "pink hat" fans interests as top priority. It seems as though the FO thought process was "as long as we keep the pink hat fans happy, revenue will continue to flow in. Plus, the hardcore, critical, 365 days a year fans will continue to follow no matter what - because it's their nature, in their blood, etc."

 

Going forward, their mindset needs to be "we will make decisions that will benefit our organization in the short and long term because that will lead to prolonged winning. When the team wins, our 365 day a year, hardcore, critical fans will be satisfied. And, because the team is winning, we also keep the pink hat fans interested and the revenue streams they provide."

 

Never again should baseball decisions take a backseat to the business decisions.

 

What I'm suggesting is that some of the smart baseball decisions ahead for this team may involve taking a pass on moves that will make the team better in the short term, in favor of moves that make it better in the long term.

 

Josh Hamilton is an example. Assuming he goes to free agency, he is definitely a player who would make us a better team next year. But he's also a very expensive and risky investment and his contract could end up as another albatross.

 

Will we be able to stay away from big free-agent signings the next few years, especially with all this money freed up?

[DocHolliday]

What I'm suggesting is that some of the smart baseball decisions ahead for this team may involve taking a pass on moves that will make the team better in the short term, in favor of moves that make it better in the long term.

 

Josh Hamilton is an example. Assuming he goes to free agency, he is definitely a player who would make us a better team next year. But he's also a very expensive and risky investment and his contract could end up as another albatross.

 

Will we be able to stay away from big free-agent signings the next few years, especially with all this money freed up?

 

I wouldn't mind it if this team makes another big free agent signing in the future - as long as it makes sense for the long term.

 

To use your example, Josh Hamilton doesn't make sense for the LT. At his age, his most productive seasons would be the first few years of the contract. Who knows if this team will be able to compete next year. We're not even considering the other risk factors he brings.

 

Big market FA, particularly those in their late 20s and/or with a proven track record in big markets, can make sense. But they won't make sense if the FO uses them to fix an already underperforming team, as they have done recently. Instead, they should be used as retaining and supplemental pieces with a young core of cost controlled players as the main foundation.

[youmetaxidermy]

Let's just pretend that Billy Beane had went to the Red Sox after all and work like that.

[Orange Juiced]

They have a huge opportunity to make this team competitive for 2013. They have a tremendous amount of payroll flexibility. I don't know why you are so willing to let them off the hook for 2013. If they make smart moves, there is no reason why the 2013 Red Sox cannot be a competitive team.

 

Absolutely. But they need a new heart and soul. Because they are dead men walking. There is no life to this team, no drive, no energy. I'm sure the guys are trying, but anyone who has played competitive sports knows there is something intangible about a winning spirit, about a player or a team with heart and guts. There's no stat for it, so the guys at SoSH can decry it all they want, but I'm guessing that not many guys there have ever actually played anything competitive before, because intangible stuff is REAL. And this team sure doesn't have it.

[BornToRun]

I think that our struggles might have intangible issues but I'd rather we address the talent issues first, a competent shortstop and a decent rotation should be our top priority.

[jung]

Both issues should be addressed at the same time. The intangibles if not addressed result in players that don't blend together to form an actual team regardless of what their individual stats might be. Somebody that knows how to judge stats and understands how a player plays the game is the kind of talent evaluator that can make these sorts of judgements. The Sox seem short on guys that can evaluate talent that way and long on guys that know how to manipulate a computer program.

[redsoxfan3]

My offseason to do list:

 

-Sign Ross to a 3 year deal worth close to 20-25 million.

-Sign Big Papi to a 2 year deal worth close to 20-25 million.

-Try to sign Ellsbury long-term.

-Explore all possible free agent options.

 

Mike Napoli is a guy that I want us to take a serious look at, especially with him capable of playing first and catcher. He could be a platoon guy at both positions.

 

As much as I do not like Nick Swisher, I want us to take a serious look into signing him. I cannot stand the fact that he is a complete ******* who always has a smirk on his face or the fact that he plays on the Yankees, but he is versatile in terms of being able to play 1B and RF. He is not the best player to hit for average, but he does have some power.

 

The biggest problem of all is our SP. I want Lester and Buchholz in the rotation, but if we can replace Morales, Doubront, etc. with better options, then I am all for it. Lester and Buchholz have potential, but I do not see either has more than number two and number threes on this team, or possibly back end of the rotation pitchers if they keep underperforming.

 

Here is one option that I thought was interesting. The Mets are looking to rebuild. David Wright might be a FA if they do not pick up his 16 million option. I think he is definitely worth picking up that option, but that is not my call to make. Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey are both guys that are on the Mets that are pitching well this year. I know this will cost us an arm and a leg and would take a lot of balls to pull off, but a huge blockbuster trade for Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, and David Wright would be huge for this team. David Wright is only 29, Jon Niese is only 25, a R.A. Dickey is 37, but is coming off of a career year. Here is where it gets interesting, who do we trade for? Middlebrooks has a bright future and Doubront even has a bright future, but with getting David Wright, that means we will have a 3B for a few years to come. The only way I would ever make this trade if is I can get Wright to sign a long-term contract with the threat of him becoming a FA after 2013. I would do the same with Dickey, but only by making him sign a 2 or 3 year contract with him being 37. Jon Niese is under team control through 2018. The negative is we get rid of a young guy with a lot of potential in Middlebrooks, but with Wright being our 3B for a few years, a lot of people would forget about Middlebrooks. Doubront pitched decent for us early on in the year, but as the year went on and his arm started to fatigue, his performance started to decline. If we can somehow package a trade around Middlebrooks, Doubront, Iglesias, and prospects, then I will be all for this trade. There are obviously a few prospects that should be untouchable, but I think we should try to get rid of Iglesias in this package. It is hard to tell how much in return the Mets would want, but I am assuming it will be A LOT. Realistically, this probably will never happen.

 

Edwin Jackson is a SP that has had a solid season. He is one guy that I hope we at least try to go after.

 

Brandon McCarthy has had a solid year and might be worth pursuing as a SP.

 

Zack Greinke is another option, although I am kind of hesitant with him. He has pitched decent this year, but with the Angels he has only had a 4.82 ERA in seven starts.

 

Hiroki Kuroda could be worth a one year contract if the price is right.

 

Kyle Lohse is definitely a good option to pursue, although he is a Boras client.

 

Shaun Marcum might be worth looking into, even though he has missed some time this year.

 

There are definitely options out there. They may not be the best options, but we definitely have room and the opportunity to improve our SP, especially with a flexible payroll. Dice-K and Cook will be gone (hopefully). Morales and Doubront are still options, but if we can take a step up from them and improve our rotation, then I am all for it. If both of those two guys have to fight for a 5th spot in the rotation, that is fine with me. I see us sticking with Lester and Buchholz, but potentially adding three new starters to our rotation is a good thing.

[SoxSport]

I've read a ton of stuff in the media--and in chatgroups lately about the Red Sox. In all this talk, I've haven't yet seen any distinction between Cherington's and Epstein's jobs: Epstein was GM and executive VP of team ops--he was given that authority as a VP in 06 after his gorilla suit episode. Cherington is a notch lower at GM. He is about where Epstein was in '02 when he was named GM.

 

It is hardly surprising that Ben did not name the manager last September--in fact, what was surprising was the dog and pony show Lucchino let happen in the public vetting of managerial candidates by Cherington. That never should have happened. First year GMs don't hire managers--one level below them. VPs hire managers, as Lucchino promptly did with Valentine. In the corporate world, you get hired and fired two levels above you. Lucchino's and Henry's mistake.

 

The fact is Epstein was not replaced. They hired a GM one level below Epstein--an internal promotion. And that may be the beginning of their problems, because Ben was given too much authority to hire a manager. The absence of an Epstein level guy to run team operations has led, I believe, to the power struggles and organizational dysfunction. And has caused Henry to intercede periodically to smooth over the situation.

 

I guess Henry has saved some money not replacing Epstein, but it has led to a lot of organizational confusion. And now they are back to square one. And one writer, Ken Rosenthal, has even suggested bringing back Tito. What's next? Epstein, too?

[SoxSport]

One more thing about Epstein:

 

Did you know that his grandfather and great uncle were the famous Epstein brothers who wrote the script to Casablanca--one of the greatest movies ever?

[Palodios]

I guess Henry has saved some money not replacing Epstein, but it has led to a lot of organizational confusion. And now they are back to square one. And one writer, Ken Rosenthal, has even suggested bringing back Tito. What's next? Epstein, too?

 

Wouldn't that be hilarious? Epstein leaves the team after completely sinking the ship with bloated contracts, and after Ben the Hero fixes his mistakes, Epstein is brought back in to screw things up again.

[jung]

Frankly I think all of this "back to Bill James" ******** is a cover for the real need from a Management and Baseball Operations perspective, that being leaving Marketing instincts out of player personnel decisions. That is the real problem and while I don't know if JH knows that I suspect he does but has no interest in throwing his buddy and confidant LL under the bus since LL makes money for JH.

 

As someone recently pointed out, other than Crawford's OBP, the big money went to guys with great numbers. They just did not gel, did not stitch together into a whole quilt. That is a team building skill, not the sort of thing you would expect Bill James to bring to the table. Sure some of the signings since the Beckett Extension (the flag in the sand that I tend to remember as the beginning of a disastrous string of big money signings), like Jenks and Cameron were horrible signings but they did not get the huge money. Every penny they got was wasted but it was not the huge money. In fact I am inclined to think that if as reported Bill James was also not a fan of the Crawford signing it would have been over his OBP not the simple fact that Carl Crawford was not designed as a ballplayer fit for a Fenway team especially one that already had Ells.

 

So I really think all of this Bill James is back nonsense is a smokescreen for a needed cleansing of Baseball Operations of Marketing instincts. Although I am no longer interested in any blather that emanates from the offices of JH, TW and LL. I want to see them walk the walk. For example if the first thing we see in the off season is some big slugger signed without even the beginning of an effort or the exposure of a plan to fix the pitching then I will go back to these ******** announcements from the corner offices and call foul.

[Elktonnick]

Frankly I think all of this "back to Bill James" ******** is a cover for the real need from a Management and Baseball Operations perspective, that being leaving Marketing instincts out of player personnel decisions. That is the real problem and while I don't know if JH knows that I suspect he does but has no interest in throwing his buddy and confidant LL under the bus since LL makes money for JH.

 

As someone recently pointed out, other than Crawford's OBP, the big money went to guys with great numbers. They just did not gel, did not stitch together into a whole quilt. That is a team building skill, not the sort of thing you would expect Bill James to bring to the table. Sure some of the signings since the Beckett Extension (the flag in the sand that I tend to remember as the beginning of a disastrous string of big money signings), like Jenks and Cameron were horrible signings but they did not get the huge money. Every penny they got was wasted but it was not the huge money. In fact I am inclined to think that if as reported Bill James was also not a fan of the Crawford signing it would have been over his OBP not the simple fact that Carl Crawford was not designed as a ballplayer fit for a Fenway team especially one that already had Ells.

 

So I really think all of this Bill James is back nonsense is a smokescreen for a needed cleansing of Baseball Operations of Marketing instincts. Although I am no longer interested in any blather that emanates from the offices of JH, TW and LL. I want to see them walk the walk. For example if the first thing we see in the off season is some big slugger signed without even the beginning of an effort or the exposure of a plan to fix the pitching then I will go back to these ******** announcements from the corner offices and call foul.

[Elktonnick]

James lost a lot of credibility with me with his defense of Joe Paterno.

[a700hitter]

It was foolishness to have the father of sabremetrics on the FO payroll. He's best suited for rotisserie sports.

[mvp 78]

No matter how marginal his insight was, they got 2 rings after he came on board. Doesn't seem foolish to me.

[Palodios]

It was foolishness to have the father of sabremetrics on the FO payroll. He's best suited for rotisserie sports.

 

Do you really think he had anything to do with the Lackey or Crawford signings? The Red Sox had done well up until three years ago... the point at which they supposedly stopped listening to him.

[a700hitter]

No matter how marginal his insight was, they got 2 rings after he came on board. Doesn't seem foolish to me.

Are you saying that the Sox should seek out employees who can contribute marginally and give them FO jobs? That doesn't sound like a sound approach to business. There's nothing James can do that some baseabll fan/nerd from MIT couldn't do as an intern. They'd probably love to do it for free.

[mvp 78]

They won 2 rings with him on staff. I wouldn't care if they had the staff of the Glass Slipper on their payroll from 03-on.

[a700hitter]

They won 2 rings with him on staff. I wouldn't care if they had the staff of the Glass Slipper on their payroll from 03-on.

Oh okay, let's rehire all the marginal performers from that era. That's a good strategy.

[Elktonnick]

Oh okay, let's rehire all the marginal performers from that era. That's a good strategy.

 

And Hiedi Whatney too! I guess she was more than eye candy!

[mvp 78]

Oh okay, let's rehire all the marginal performers from that era. That's a good strategy.

 

You said it was foolish to hire him. I said it couldn't have been that foolish if they won two rings with him on board after an 86 year drought.

 

I never said anything about having him in the FO going forward.

 

You said it was foolish. It clearly wasn't because it worked out.

[a700hitter]

You said it was foolish to hire him. I said it couldn't have been that foolish if they won two rings with him on board after an 86 year drought.

 

I never said anything about having him in the FO going forward.

 

You said it was foolish. It clearly wasn't because it worked out.

There's no logical connection there. Winning championships doesn't mean that every move or decision was a good one.

[Bellhorn04]

There's no logical connection there. Winning championships doesn't mean that every move or decision was a good one.

 

But you haven't explained why it was foolish to hire him.

[a700hitter]

But you haven't explained why it was foolish to hire him.

I think the metrics that he developed decades ago that are useful are well-known, and we don't need to pay Bill James to use them. Where this team needs to devote resources is to scouting. I have little regard for the use of sabremetrics with regard to scouting or even with regard to minor league stats.

[jung]

Things like the Temp Gauge are I think indications that James is struggling to come up with more interesting ways to look at numbers than what he has already developed.