Sox and Ortiz Settle at Mid-Point

[Palodios]

We'd need to actually see the figures to know. I'm desperately looking for Alex Speier's numbers and can't find them. I don't think it's possible for the Red Sox to be at the 190 million mark after trading Scutaro. If they were before, after they traded him they would be only a little over the tax without exercising Lackey's option and pending the Epstein situation resolution which, if it's money, would be deducted from the LT as well.

 

All of this is a mess, i'll tell you that much.

 

Here you go. It looked like 173ish after the Ross deal, and before benefits. 10 million for benefits means they're over by about 4 million.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/01/26/budget-isnt-problem-another-look-red-sox-payro

[Bellhorn04]

Most of the high payroll the Sox have is based on decisions made in previous years. If anything those decisions made in previous years appear to be driving this year's austerity program more than anything else.

 

Absolutely true. A lot of long-term big-money contracts were in place coming into this year. But I think 'austerity' is a very relative term when they're spending at this level.

[User Name]

Here you go. It looked like 173ish after the Ross deal, and before benefits. 10 million for benefits means they're over by about 4 million.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/01/26/budget-isnt-problem-another-look-red-sox-payro

 

Then that would allow them to get under the Lux Tax if they get money from the Epstein issue (and they most likely will) and exercising Lackey's option. If that's not what they're going for, then why didn't they sign a friggin' pitcher?

 

That being said, this whole thing makes no sense no matter how you look at it.

[User Name]

What is fact is that he WAS extremely productive last year. It is fact that he has the potential to be extremely productive this year.

 

On balance even given his potential to be extremely productive, I would have taken a major upgrade to the rotation with the added benefit of being able to rotate guys into the DH spot over what we appear to be getting any day of the week. In fact even before the arbitration issue came up, when this board was discussing who should come back and who should not, Ortiz many times ended up on the short end of that discussion. Granted none of us are professional baseball people but we are in the main astute observers of the game. The only reason there was so much divided opinion about whether Ortiz should be back or not is that given what appeared to already be shaping up as a year when the Sox were going to make money an issue, we were making value judgements early on about the value of an aging DH given the number of inter-league games, the need for upgrades to the team pitching staff and the desire to rest certain players that also carry big lumber but have a propensity to fade over the course of the season or have shown a propensity to injury as they have gotten older. Ortiz' penchant for becoming self-centered is also now well documented and as others have mentioned, attitude can be an issue if it has an impact on other team members. Do we have to go back any farther than last year to see how much attitude can have an impact on the team as a whole?

 

As for LL and his comments about the team payroll, that is a pretty ridiculous argument. I also would not trust LL as far as I could throw him. Most of the high payroll the Sox have is based on decisions made in previous years. If anything those decisions made in previous years appear to be driving this year's austerity program more than anything else.

 

But who said we couldn't have both? We could have had Ortiz' bat and the pitching, which is my whole point.

 

Also, even though Ortiz may be a bit whiny, let's not oversell his attitude as being a major detriment to the team.

[Palodios]

Then that would allow them to get under the Lux Tax if they get money from the Epstein issue (and they most likely will) and exercising Lackey's option. If that's not what they're going for, then why didn't they sign a friggin' pitcher?

 

That being said, this whole thing makes no sense no matter how you look at it.

 

The Lackey savings are 2.66 million. The Red Sox will probably need 2-4 million from the Cubs to stay under the cap, and even then they would have to account for extra salaries by incentives reached, and I didn't include Cook/Padilla's high salaries into the figures. They're not staying under the cap unless they trade one of their all-stars.

[User Name]

The Lackey savings are 2.66 million. The Red Sox will probably need 2-4 million from the Cubs to stay under the cap' date=' and even then they would have to account for extra salaries by incentives reached, and I didn't include Cook/Padilla's high salaries into the figures. They're not staying under the cap unless they trade one of their all-stars.[/quote']

 

So why not just sign an SP, given that they will be only slightly over the cap? The impact would be minimal.

 

That being said, neither Padilla nor Cook have guaranteed salaries. They have to make the roster in order to impact the cap, because they are split MiLB/MLB contracts.

[Palodios]

So why not just sign an SP' date=' given that they will be only slightly over the cap? The impact would be minimal.[/quote']

 

I've been frustrated by that same question for a couple of days.

 

 

That being said, neither Padilla nor Cook have guaranteed salaries. They have to make the roster in order to impact the cap, because they are split MiLB/MLB contracts.

 

Sure, but the chance of both of those guys making the roster are very high, considering their competition.

[User Name]

I've been frustrated by that same question for a couple of days.

 

They could potentially still sign Oswalt.

 

Sure, but the chance of both of those guys making the roster are very high, considering their competition.

 

Padilla yes, Cook may strain his back playing Top Spin 4 Tennis with his Playstation Move ©.

[jung]

Austerity is a relative term. My argument is that compared to other years, years that are in the main now responsible for what will be either the second or third highest payroll in baseball, spending "adds" this year appear nonexistent.

 

In addition, since you cannot call what a player did as fact in a previous year conclusive evidence that he will repeat that performance the next year, we can only judge everything in terms of potential.

 

If you had to look at the various elements that I content went into the Ortiz arbitration decision, which do you think the more likely:

1. Do you think it more likely that given his increasing age, Ortiz will repeat or exceed his 2011 performance in 2012?

2. Do you think it more likely that Ortiz will remain a fan favorite long enough to provide a benefit to the Sox from the perspective of his marketing potential and the related impact on ticket sales and other revenue bearing elements?

 

I would contend that the way the Sox would view those elements, they would view Ortiz and his ability to be a benefit as a marketing tool as far more likely than that he would duplicate or improve on his on field 2011 performance. His addition to the roster bears an almost immediate benefit with regard to revenue bearing opportunities while his performance on the field will only be a factor that has an impact on revenue well into the season. By that I mean that even if Ortiz were to stumble right out of the blocks, we would all remain optimistic about the chances of his duplicating his 2011 performance and having a net positive impact on the team's standings until and unless his performance remained below that expectation for an extended period of time. By the time that day rolls around most of the tickets will be sold, most of the revenue will be accounted for and from LL's perspective, Ortiz will have done his job.

[Palodios]

They could potentially still sign Oswalt.

 

He doesn't want to come to Boston for 5 million. 10 million, that's a different story.

 

Padilla yes, Cook may strain his back playing Top Spin 4 Tennis with his Playstation Move ©.

 

Cook has averaged 120 IP the last three years. Padilla has averaged 40 IP the last three years. I'd be more concerned with Padilla, personally.

[jung]

But who said we couldn't have both? We could have had Ortiz' bat and the pitching, which is my whole point.

 

It does not matter that we could have had both and in part that is my point. It only matters what the Sox do or do not do and until the Red Sox hire you or me or any one of us, what we think about what they could have done does not amount to a hill a' beans. These are worthy points for discussion here, but we all to often transcend what we do here to a point where it suggests that it has a bearing on what the Sox do.

 

I have been saying that it does not matter the reasons why. It does not even matter whether the Sox have gone down this road because of the LT. What is obvious at this point is that the Sox have adopted a more restrictive approach to spending this year and as a consequence it does not appear that we are getting both or will get both. In light of that outcome, that we could have had both appears irrelevant.

[Bellhorn04]

He doesn't want to come to Boston for 5 million. 10 million, that's a different story.

 

The killer there, though, is the 40% LT. 10 million = 14 million.

[a700hitter]

The killer there' date=' though, is the 40% LT. 10 million = 14 million.[/quote']It's still a one year commitment. Not a big deal when they have $300 million committed to 2 players.

[User Name]

He doesn't want to come to Boston for 5 million. 10 million' date=' that's a different story.[/quote']

 

If they'll be over the cap anyway they can offer that without selling the house.

 

 

Cook has averaged 120 IP the last three years. Padilla has averaged 40 IP the last three years. I'd be more concerned with Padilla, personally.

 

Cook's shoulder is toast though, and his velocity has decreased on a yearly basis the past few years. Padilla's velocity was very much back during WL's.

[ipot]

OK. So we settled the Ortiz issue, but we don't have a SS (well, I do hope of our options Aviles will be the one who'll come closest to Scutaro's numbers, but the glove is not so good) and no insurance at #4 SP if Bard goes south.

[mvp 78]

OK. So we settled the Ortiz issue' date=' but we don't have a SS (well, I do hope of our options Aviles will be the one who'll come closest to Scutaro's numbers, but the glove is not so good) and no insurance at #4 SP if Bard goes south.[/quote']

 

His glove is no worse than Scutaro's. I'm still hoping they just give Iglesias a shot.

[SoxSport]

His glove is no worse than Scutaro's. I'm still hoping they just give Iglesias a shot.

 

Maybe Ortiz has secretly agreed to work out at SS. Just kidding. He needs to stay in the same shape as last year, though. That should be in his contract.

 

I think they will go to Iglesias at some point in the season. SS is a defensive position.

His hitting has been way overemphasized.

[ibot2much]

His glove is no worse than Scutaro's. I'm still hoping they just give Iglesias a shot.

 

 

I spoke about that a while ago. No SS, who is in RF and what are they doing with LF while CC is out.....that whole left side looks like it could be a defensive black hole. Just hoping that Youk comes back is great shape and can last the season. He got hit pretty hard last year

[User Name]

RF is Ryan Kalish's spot to lose after he comes back, and didn't they sign Cody Ross? Right now they could go with a Ross-Ellsbury-Sweeney arrangement which should be very good defensively and provide adequate offensive production.

 

As for SS, Aviles could have similar production to Scutaro with more power but less OBP, and of course, Iglesias.

[User Name]

Here you go. It looked like 173ish after the Ross deal, and before benefits. 10 million for benefits means they're over by about 4 million.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/01/26/budget-isnt-problem-another-look-red-sox-payro

 

Yahoo's Jeff Passan has the Red Sox estimated opening-day payroll (updated Feb. 10) which, with 10 million added for miscellaneous costs would put them just under the luxury tax.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AlWsZte5CBNRgllyXF1OowYHU84F?slug=jp-passan_hot_stove_daily_boston_red_sox_valentine_021912

 

http://weknowmemes.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/epic-jackie-chan-template.png

[jung]

There is a part of me that hopes that Sox are actually backing themselves into a corner on Iglesias coming up this year. While it is something of a gamble he has got to get up here sometime and I would prefer to see him up sooner rather than later if it is possible.

 

By all accounts he "could" end up being the kind of defensive shortstop that makes you forget that he perennially occupies the bottom of the batting order. It is at least a possibility that his hitting liability might be overshadowed enough by his defense. Might be hard for the "Bostons" to like a guy like that but when guys like that do come along, they can be very exciting to watch.

[User Name]

According to scouts, he has a great swing that has a very good bat-to-ball path and good-to-great speed. The problem is he cannot take a pitch.

[seabeachfred]

His glove is no worse than Scutaro's. I'm still hoping they just give Iglesias a shot.

 

Iglesias will get a look in Spring Training but his bat right now is so weak MVP that it would be a big risk considering all the hitting we have to have with the questionable pitching we will be sending out there. Of course, if Beckett, Lester and Buchholz could pitch lights out and one of the rumbswabs we signed suddenly rediscovers the fountain of youth and effectiveness to go along with it we might be able to carry the kid. Keep in mind that three of the last four season Ortiz has gotten off to a rotten start and if he does this year it would put tremendous pressure on Els, Pedey, Gonzo and Youk to hit up a ton, and do we really know what we're going to get from Satalamacchia, Ross and Sweeney? If they all hit decently enough, again,, we could carry Iglesias. To tell the truth I'm going around in circles because I don't have a damn clue of how this team is going to come out of Spring Training. I do like Aviles as a hitter. The guy does well at Fenway Park, has some power and hits for average. If he can field as well as Scutaro I'm all for giving him the job and hope our offense can help carry some of the stiffs we will be sending out there on the mound.

[mvp 78]

If the Sox get the same production out of every position they got last year (including bad CC, injured Youk, no RF) and only downgrade SS, wouldn't that still leave them towards the top of the league?

 

I expect Salty, CC and Youk to be better this year. AGon should hit for more power.

 

I expect Ortiz and Ells to take a step back.

 

All in all, adding Iglesias won't kill the offense (which has been towards the top of the league since 03) and his glove will help get pitchers out of more jams with his slick fielding. Trading an offensive hit for an extra defensive out seems more like treading water than losing production.

[Emmz]

You expect Salty to be better? He's been awful. The only reason he was as good as that was a 3 month span where his slg% went up by 200 points. Not banking on that performance to be repeated.

[User Name]

You expect Salty to be better? He's been awful. The only reason he was as good as that was a 3 month span where his slg% went up by 200 points. Not banking on that performance to be repeated.

 

This is plain wrong. Not only was he not awful by positional standards, but the possibility for improvement is there.

 

Who's to say his overall production next year won't resemble the torrid three-month stretch from mid-season instead of the s***** ending to the season? The power and OB skills have always been there, they simply haven't translated into sustained production.

[Emmz]

This is plain wrong. Not only was he not awful by positional standards, but the possibility for improvement is there.

 

Who's to say his overall production next year won't resemble the torrid three-month stretch from mid-season instead of the s***** ending to the season? The power and OB skills have always been there, they simply haven't translated into sustained production.

 

What? At AAA? Not in the bigs. He hasn't inspired any hope. He was "above average" OPS for his position only because of that 3-month stretch. His career isn't giving me any reason to expect improvement. He's an above average hitting catcher and sucks behind the plate, there's not much else you can expect out of him.

 

I don't excuse a s***** OPS just because he's a catcher, even less impressive is that it still sucked despite the hot stretch.

[User Name]

What? At AAA? Not in the bigs. He hasn't inspired any hope. He was "above average" OPS for his position only because of that 3-month stretch. His career isn't giving me any reason to expect improvement. He's an above average hitting catcher and sucks behind the plate, there's not much else you can expect out of him.

 

I don't excuse a s***** OPS just because he's a catcher, even less impressive is that it still sucked despite the hot stretch.

 

It's dishonest to discount his good months of production because they were "just a hot stretch". By your logic, Russell Martin sucked ass too.

 

How is a .737 OPS "s*****"? It is above league average regardless of position, and his OPS+ of 95 is right around league average.

 

Also, no reason to expect improvement? He's 26, entering his prime and coming off a season in which he posted an IsoP number of .215. That portends to very good power production.

 

Just for argument's sake, Bill James projects Salty to post a .245/.311/.436 .747 OPS line, which is a mild improvement over last season.

[Emmz]

It's dishonest to discount his good months of production because they were "just a hot stretch". By your logic, Russell Martin sucked ass too.

 

How is a .737 OPS "s*****"? It is above league average regardless of position, and his OPS+ of 95 is right around league average.

 

Also, no reason to expect improvement? He's 26, entering his prime and coming off a season in which he posted an IsoP number of .215. That portends to very good power production.

 

Just for argument's sake, Bill James projects Salty to post a .245/.311/.436 .747 OPS line, which is a mild improvement over last season.

 

League average is s*****, and slightly above average is still s*****. I don't discredit the hot streak, it happened, don't know where you pulled that out of, or how much it hurt to do so. Doesn't matter what Bill James projects, I'm pretty sure it's not a fool proof formula. His career has yet to inspire hope. Spin it whatever way you like, but Salty is mediocre overall. His bat doesn't make up for how much of a butcher he is.

[Emmz]

Age does not equal to expectations for imrovement. He's had one "good" season, and even then he was nothing special. I'll say Salty is an able major league player when he reproduces last year or better.