Phillies sign Papelbon

[jung]

And:

 

as much different as 1/16 is to 4/50 on a single year basis, when you add the vesting part of the deal which basically makes it 5/60, this deal is life changing for Paps. He now has his "set for life" deal whatever happens from here. 1/16 is a lotta' money but it is not a set for life deal. I don't think it would have mades sense for Paps to take 1/16 with a guaranteed contract worth 5/60 on the table.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I was hoping this thread was a joke. f***!

[Palodios]

Pal' date=' you're rationalizing pretty hard here. Papelbon is a humongous loss. Not sure if he can be replaced[/quote']

 

Papelbon was the best closer on the market, and possibly the best the Red Sox have ever had. Losing him is huge, but it is still the painfully shrewd move that they needed to make. They also have the second best closer they've had in years as well, so it seems like a perfect time for a promotion.

[Bellhorn04]

You keep throwing out my examples' date=' and provide none of your own. Find me a comparable contract then. Papelbon is not Rivera, and he never will be. Stop pretending he is.[/quote']

 

Rivera is the best closer ever, but Papelbon's numbers at his age are better than Rivera's were at the same age.

[wyo-sox]

I hope they have some master plan here for a good starter. In my mind the better the starting rotation is the less important the bull pen is. I don't think you can replace Paps. So I don't see spending big money trying to. Let Bard have his shot and strengthen the starting rotation.

[Palodios]

Rivera is the best closer ever' date=' but Papelbon's numbers at his age are better than Rivera's were at the same age.[/quote']

 

********. At age 30, Rivera was coming off seasons of 2.09, 1.88, 1.91 and 1.83 ERAs in the middle of the steroid era. Papelbon is coming off 2.34, 1.85, 3.90 and 2.94 ERAs. He may have the hard save numbers, but that doesn't make him a better pitcher.

[wyo-sox]

And all numbers, deals, moves, and dollars aside- I am certainly going to miss Pap on the team. He added a ton of character and excitement.

[Bellhorn04]

********. At age 30' date=' Rivera was coming off seasons of 2.09, 1.88, 1.91 and 1.83 ERAs in the middle of the steroid era. Papelbon is coming off 2.34, 1.85, 3.90 and 2.94 ERAs. He may have the hard save numbers, but that doesn't make him a better pitcher.[/quote']

 

Papelbon has an ERA+ of 197, Rivera's ERA+ was 180 at the same age.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Both my parents died in the first 5 weeks of the year. My brother had a heart attack. My mother in law is in a rehab with a broken hip and she is senile to boot. And the F'in Red Sox had the worst September collapse in history. 2011 has been a banner year. Damn red Sox!!

 

Other than that, everything is good. My daughter has a full time job as a chemical engineer after graduating from Northeastern and my son is gainfully employed with the federal government and mooching off me.

 

How's your son doing at MIT?

 

Holy s***, what a disaster. Hope everything is alright a700.

 

If the organization decides to go closer by committee' date=' I'm burning down that dump they call Fenway. :thumbdown[/quote']

 

HEY! You watch your damn mouth boy! Fenway is legendary how dare you

[Palodios]

Papelbon has an ERA+ of 197' date=' Rivera's ERA+ was 180 at the same age.[/quote']

 

Does that include his first season as a starter where he was terrible?

[jung]

Papelbon was the best closer on the market, and possibly the best the Red Sox have ever had. Losing him is huge, but it is still the painfully shrewd move that they needed to make.

 

The Sox are not left with easy choices to make or an ability to just open the wallet wide. I don't understand what people are not getting. I would rather they not be in this spot but this is what the very costly and for the most ineffective FA moves of the last couple of years do to you. To be honest I don't like some of the moves generally thought of as successful because they all served to paint this team farther and farther into the corner that they are in today. They closed off options lineup options during the season and personnel options in the off season.

 

And for our yankee fan friend:

I would not be crowing to loudly if I were a Yankee fan because all they managed to do was take double the revenue of every other major league baseball team, busting through the Luxury Tax limits like the bloated, belching deceased cow that they are and used it effectively enough to get waxed in the post season.

[Palodios]

Papelbon has an ERA+ of 197' date=' Rivera's ERA+ was 180 at the same age.[/quote']

 

You sneaky bastard, you did try to slip that by me. Rivera's ERA+ as a reliever is around the 240's at that age. Big difference.

 

Edit: That is a playful "sneaky bastard", not a mean-spirited one. In case that wasn't clear.

[iortiz]

Ben has manged to ruin this weekend. Please go get the GM from Tampa.

 

He better bring a bomb or be creative to ease this pain (SP, DH, BP arms and pitching depth).

 

But seems like he is focused in in the manager, Sizemore and Theo's compensation.

[Bellhorn04]

You sneaky bastard, you did try to slip that by me. Rivera's ERA+ as a reliever is around the 240's at that age. Big difference.

 

Edit: That is a playful "sneaky bastard", not a mean-spirited one. In case that wasn't clear.

 

No, in my haste I actually missed that little detail. Point taken.

[iortiz]

Both my parents died in the first 5 weeks of the year. My brother had a heart attack. My mother in law is in a rehab with a broken hip and she is senile to boot. And the F'in Red Sox had the worst September collapse in history. 2011 has been a banner year. Damn red Sox!!

 

Other than that, everything is good. My daughter has a full time job as a chemical engineer after graduating from Northeastern and my son is gainfully employed with the federal government and mooching off me.

 

How's your son doing at MIT?

 

Your daughter chose an excellent career.

 

BTW, Sorry to hear about your loss.

[3rdManOut]

I guess Im not TOO suprised that this happend. It does suck but I had a feeling Pap might not return for next season with us. Now we try to figure out who are next closer should be. Got to hand it to the Phillies though. They took advantage of a situation quick.

[a700hitter]

You keep throwing out my examples' date=' and provide none of your own. Find me a comparable contract then. Papelbon is not Rivera, and he never will be. Stop pretending he is.[/quote']I never said that he was Rivera. If there are no comparable examples of contracts at age 30 for consistently elite closers that doesn't prove your case. It just proves that there are no comparable contracts that indicate whether Papelbon's contract is good or bad. You should be looking at how many elite closers stay elite through age 34. Their contracts are not relevant. The issue is performance and durability, not the contract. You are twisting yourself in a circle with irrelevant data that proves nothing. Do you want examples of closers who have remained elite to age 34? Off the top of my head: Billy Wagner, Joe Nathan, Trevor Hoffman, John Franco, Jeff Reardon, Eck, Lee Smith and on and on. Papelbon will still be punching out batters and locking down games 4 years from now at the ripe old age of 34.

[a700hitter]

Holy s***, what a disaster. Hope everything is alright a700.

Thanks. Things are going better lately. That's life. It's hard sometimes.

[a700hitter]

Your daughter chose an excellent career.

 

BTW, Sorry to hear about your loss.

Thank you.

[iortiz]

You keep throwing out my examples' date=' and provide none of your own. Find me a comparable contract then. Papelbon is not Rivera, and he never will be. Stop pretending he is.[/quote']

 

Who is better than Papelbon (as a closer, of course) TODAY? not career numbers but TODAY in order to perform the next cuple of season at least?

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is horrible. Last offseason, I said I would never want Pap back because he was on the downside. Then 2011 happened. Lets just say I'm eating crow.

 

Letting Papelbon walk does, however, free up about $12mm from last season that we can use to put toward an elite SP (hopefully via trade).

 

The only reason I'm not mortified by this is because last year, when we let Vic go and everyone everywhere was freaking out, we ended up with Gonzo and Crawford. Let's let the offseason pan out before we hammer Cherington. This is not a good start, though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Who is better than Papelbon (as a closer' date=' of course) [b']TODAY[/b]? not career numbers but TODAY in order to perform the next cuple of season at least?

 

Papelbon is elite. The only thing is that he was wildly inconsistent over the past 2 years. 1down year and an elite year in past 3. I wanted Pap back, but at the same time, I understand the reasoning of not wanting to commit $50mm over 4 years to him.

[SoxFanForsyth]

PeteAbe Pete Abraham

Papelbon and his agents did not give the #RedSox a chance to match the Philly deal, Ben Cherington said

[iortiz]

This is horrible. Last offseason, I said I would never want Pap back because he was on the downside. Then 2011 happened. Lets just say I'm eating crow.

 

Letting Papelbon walk does, however, free up about $12mm from last season that we can use to put toward an elite SP (hopefully via trade).

 

The only reason I'm not mortified by this is because last year, when we let Vic go and everyone everywhere was freaking out, we ended up with Gonzo and Crawford. Let's let the offseason pan out before we hammer Cherington. This is not a good start, though.

 

ok, my hammer is more than ready just in case

 

If they sign Ortiz or Beltran and bring a name like Jackson and solid BP arms and pitching depth, I'll ease my pain, otherwise as I said the hammer is ready.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is horrible. Last offseason, I said I would never want Pap back because he was on the downside. Then 2011 happened. Lets just say I'm eating crow.

 

Letting Papelbon walk does, however, free up about $12mm from last season that we can use to put toward an elite SP (hopefully via trade).

 

The only reason I'm not mortified by this is because last year, when we let Vic go and everyone everywhere was freaking out, we ended up with Gonzo and Crawford. Let's let the offseason pan out before we hammer Cherington. This is not a good start, though.

 

You have $20+ mil to play with prior to the lux tax threshold. This doesnt change that

[MNSoxChief102]

It is what it is. Everyone and their mom has known for a long time now that Pap had his sights set on whoever would pay him the most coin this off-season. And the Phillies overpaid big time to get him... not in the actual yearly dollars but in the length of the contract they gave him IMO. Four years for any closer not name Rivera is asking for trouble. I would have gone 2 years at a much higher AAV, perhaps even 3 years, but not more than that.

 

I'm as big a fan of Pap as there is... I love his attitude, antics, and intimidation on the mound. But after watching him and the rest of the team crap the bed when it mattered most last season, I'm more than willing to take that money and spend it elsewhere to get this club back to the top. One player will not make or break this team... if we can use the cash to sign two players that can contribute to the overall team success, it's a shrewd move IMO.

[SoxSport]

Pap's K/BB ratio (8.5) was the tops among closers last year, but his WAR was only 2.1. Closers don't have the same value in Sabermetrics as they do in fantasy, because saves are not that important. A lot of saves

could probably be done by 2-3 other guys in the bullpen (though that's a stretch on the Red Sox). A saber GM, therefore, probably doesn't value a closer as highly as others would, and the Red Sox FO is probably saber oriented.

 

The other factor is Pap failed his last critical outing that cost them the playoffs, though he had an excellent year. But he sucked the previous 2 years, so the contract year is suspect in terms of getting a long-term contract. The same applies to Papi. Similar situation.

 

Maybe the thinking is let's get the draft choices and go with the cheap guy Bard who is next in line.

When you look at their payroll, you see it's tough to keep Pap or Papi if they are going to spend money on a RHd hitting outfielder, and maybe another starter. Or they might go with a Madsen or somebody else cheaper in the closer or setup role.

 

Giving big bucks long term to Pap is risky the way he has pitched the last few years. But Amaro is very aggressive, and the Phillies have to spend to keep their new ballpark full.

[iortiz]

Papelbon is elite. The only thing is that he was wildly inconsistent over the past 2 years. 1down year and an elite year in past 3. I wanted Pap back' date=' but at the same time, I understand the reasoning of not wanting to commit $50mm over 4 years to him.[/quote']

 

but again, Who is better despite those "inconstancies" TODAY?

[SoxFanForsyth]

You have $20+ mil to play with prior to the lux tax threshold. This doesnt change that

 

Yes it does. If we signed Pap, we would have about 6mm to play with prior to lux tax. Not to mention implications of DiceK's injury (insurance) and Lackey's injury (option). Not sure if either of those will affect the lux tax, but I don't think that going over the tax by a few million $$$ will keep them from chasing an elite SP.

[iortiz]

 

My question would be... Did Cherington even make a formal offer, or he was just waiting till Philli or someone makes a move in order to match it.

 

If no, Philli ate Cherington's lunch.