Phillies sign Papelbon

[User Name]

Not many teams win without good closers (look at the 2003 RedSox, almost good enough)......and not many closers can handle the pressure of pitching in Boston. We had one of those guys, and he just walked out the door without a single phone call.

 

Im not saying they are going to be terrible.......but they do have a huge hole to fill, a hole which didnt exist if they just paid him.

 

You mean like the 2011 Cardinals with Jason Motte, 2002 Angels with a rookie K-Rod, 2005 White Sox with a rookie Bobby Jenks, 2006 Cardinals with a broken-down Jason Ishringhausen or the 2003 Marlins with the "electric" Braden Looper?

 

Look, a good closer is a necessity for a contending team, but the Sox clearly have options. The sky is not falling (yet).

[Palodios]

The guy has a 3.50 ERA over the last two years, and yet he got the largest contract for a reliever in baseball history through age 36. I just don't get why people are not weighing the pros and cons of this, and realizing it was what needed to be done. An absolutely huge loss for the Sox, but it had to be done.

[User Name]

U won't get it, will you?

 

He is not even close to be one of our recent FA nightmares (D-K, Lackey, Jenks, etc.)

 

And you know that how? Do you have some sort of crystal ball, or some type of actual analysis to back this up?

 

History tells us that every long-term, high-dollar contract for a reliever not named Mariano Rivera has been a bust.

 

Hanging harder from Papelbon's jock strap will not change the fact that relievers are fickle.

[iortiz]

And you know that how? Do you have some sort of crystal ball, or some type of actual analysis to back this up?

 

History tells us that every long-term, high-dollar contract for a reliever not named Mariano Rivera has been a bust.

 

Hanging harder from Papelbon's jock strap will not change the fact that relievers are fickle.

 

Hey, A700... Do we have a crystal ball? I'd say common sense mixed with expirience and instinct which is better

 

Seriously IMO He is driving in Mo's highway.

[User Name]

Hey, A700... Do we have a crystal ball? I'd say common sense mixed with expirience and instinct which is better

 

Seriously IMO He is driving in Mo's highway.

 

Experience on what? Are you a player evaluator or something?

 

Common sense dictates that examples like BJ Ryan, Brad Lidge (similar track record to Papelbon), Joe Nathan (better track record than Papelbon), Francisco Rodriguez (similar track record, younger than Papelbon) that injuries/decline for relief pitchers can happen at any given moment. What makes Papelbon immune to those problems over the length of a four year contract?

 

You didn't answer those questions, and came back with a lame, cop-out style answer.

[a700hitter]

The guy has a 3.50 ERA over the last two years' date=' and yet he got the largest contract for a reliever in baseball history through age 36. I just don't get why people are not weighing the pros and cons of this, and realizing it was what needed to be done. An absolutely huge loss for the Sox, but it had to be done.[/quote']When he throws the last pitch of his 4 year contract, he will be 34. He has to vest in the 5th year, i.e. it is contingent upon performance.

[a700hitter]

Hey, A700... Do we have a crystal ball? I'd say common sense mixed with expirience and instinct which is better

 

Seriously IMO He is driving in Mo's highway.

Maybe a different lane, but definitely the same highway.

[Palodios]

When he throws the last pitch of his 4 year contract' date=' he will be 34. He has to vest in the 5th year, i.e. it is contingent upon performance.[/quote']

 

That's the thing about contingencies based on performance. If you're going to assume he's going to be healthy and productive throughout the contract, you also need to assume the option will vest. Please stay consistent with us here.

[iortiz]

Experience on what? Are you a player evaluator or something?

 

Common sense dictates that examples like BJ Ryan, Brad Lidge (similar track record to Papelbon), Joe Nathan (better track record than Papelbon), Francisco Rodriguez (similar track record, younger than Papelbon) that injuries/decline for relief pitchers can happen at any given moment. What makes Papelbon immune to those problems over the length of a four year contract?

 

You didn't answer those questions, and came back with a lame, cop-out style answer.

 

I wouldn't predict his future matching with those examples. He is better than them. Again, IMO he is more likely in Mo's highway. But that is me.

 

BTW...You wouldn't believe our recent predictions... I'm just kidding dude!

[jung]

Look is not a matter of not being able to compete with the Phils. The Phils are doing the same thing we did to win it all in 2007. The Phils like the Red Sox must pick and choose where and when they break the Luxury Tax threshold because they cannot afford to do otherwise. In fact I do think the Phils will break the threshold this year but since they did not break it last year, if they do break it they will pay at the lowest rate of 22.5%. However it is a worthwhile gamble because they have the horses and if they successfully fill a few key spots and stay healthy they have a great chance to win it all.

 

The Yankees are the only team in baseball that generates enough revenue without post season revenue to disregard the tax. They have broken it four years running now and are paying at the highest rate which is 40%.

 

The last time the Sox put themselves in position to pay the Tax at a high rate was right at the WS year of 2007....what a coincidence!

 

The way the tax is structured, you pay at 22.5% in the first year, 30% in the second consecutive year and 40% in the third. The Sox paid at 40% in 2007 having busted the threshold three years running, and worked down to 0% for 2008. They busted the threshold again in 2009 but having been at 0% for 2008, only had to pay at the 22.5% rate for 2009. Then if you remember they postponed AGons contract signing so that it would fall in the 2011 year so that they would not be hit at the 30% rate for 2010.

 

The point is nobody really wants to pay at the 30% or 40% rates and with one exception nobody can afford to pay that tax. So you need to manage you signings so that if you do bust the threshold you do it such that you only pay at the 22.5% rate which means you always need to at least skip one year in between years when you bust the threshold.

 

This is not a great FA market and the Sox are not really in the kind of "all in" position that the Phils are in this year. So they do not want to bust the threshold this year when they are likely to go hard at the FA market next year because busting it this year will force them into the 30% rate for next year. They have needs that they must fill this year that will absorb every dime they have up to the threshold without signing Paps and are likely to go hard at the FA market next year. It is that simple.

 

I don't know how guys figure that the Sox can continue to make bad signing after bad signing and then not realize that at some point it is not even any longer an argument about whether or not the next big signing might be a good signing or not. There are times when you simply can't afford to spend more money and that is the situation the Sox have gotten themselves into this year.

[a700hitter]

That's the thing about contingencies based on performance. If you're going to assume he's going to be healthy and productive throughout the contract' date=' you also need to assume the option will vest. Please stay consistent with us here.[/quote']If you get through the 4 years healthy, that's a good thing right. Stay with me. I'd gladly pay the 5th year at $10 million for 4 years of vintage Papelbon. If he gets injured in year 1,2,3 or 4, i don't have to pay the 5th year. The 5th year never comes into play unless the contract is successful. Do you see that?

[mvp 78]

Jumg, how is your last paragraph only two sentences? Run on city... Great points though.

[jung]

Jumg, how is your last paragraph only two sentences? Run on city... Great points though.

 

I know...saw it when I wrote it I was just to tired to change it. Notice time of entry! I will likely edit it this morning now that my eyes arn't rollin' around in my head.

[mvp 78]

Your contributions are great, just a little wordy. If they were a little more concise I'd have the time to read all of them.

[jung]

I know. The tax topic is particularly complicated both in its concept and its execution. I don't think people realize how much revenue the Yanks actually do generate and how much of a difference there is between their perspective on the tax and that of virtually every other team. The Yanks have paid as much as $26M in a given tax year and paid $18M just last year.

 

I have spent a fair amount of time on this topic of spending because I think we tend to look at these issues of player signings in isolation without understanding that the teams themselves have overarching considerations both with regard to a specific signing and a specific tax year. We get to sit back and discuss whether Player A is worth $X or not in an absolute sense and then extend that discussion to what the teams should or should not do. However the teams simply can't function that way.

[Palodios]

Many of the national and local writers are saying the exact same thing I am.

 

This move stings today.... but its still an absolutely terrible contract.

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/2011/11/11/papelbon-departure-stings/bxTDYN1NrhQ1YzXQI3f1JO/story.html

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Papelbon-signs-with-Philly-for-60-million-shi;_ylt=Aine_HzdnHanjIXJlBCsUCI5nYcB?urn=mlb-wp26756

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story?id=7220970&_slug_=2011-mlb-free-agency-pitcher-jonathan-papelbon-signs-phillies&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fhotstove11%2fstory%3fid%3d7220970%26_slug_%3d2011-mlb-free-agency-pitcher-jonathan-papelbon-signs-phillies

[Elktonnick]

Many of the national and local writers are saying the exact same thing I am.

 

This move stings today.... but its still an absolutely terrible contract.

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/2011/11/11/papelbon-departure-stings/bxTDYN1NrhQ1YzXQI3f1JO/story.html

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Papelbon-signs-with-Philly-for-60-million-shi;_ylt=Aine_HzdnHanjIXJlBCsUCI5nYcB?urn=mlb-wp26756

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story?id=7220970&_slug_=2011-mlb-free-agency-pitcher-jonathan-papelbon-signs-phillies&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fhotstove11%2fstory%3fid%3d7220970%26_slug_%3d2011-mlb-free-agency-pitcher-jonathan-papelbon-signs-phillies

 

I agree that it didn't make sense for the RS to sign Paps to the same deal as the Phils. But it sort of makes sense from the Phillies point of view even though the sabermetrics may not justify it in baseball terms. First Paps will be in the NL primarily NL East. While Citizen's Bank Park is a band box, he'll be facing NL hitters most of whom haven't seen him much. So I expect he'll do well next year at least. But more importantly the Phils need to keep their fanbase engaged. Philly has become a great baseball town again. The love the Phils. Paps personality will go over really well down here. They'll love him. I don't think that fact is lost on Philly ownership. If he does well here, he'll own this town even more so than he would have in Boston.

[jung]

Just as important i think the Phils believe they are pretty well set up to win it all....probably think they should have this last year. So it is a good year for them to bring in what they would hope to be a "slam the door" closer. If they don't have to use him the way the Sox had to at the end of last year, that should be what they have for the post season.

[SoxSport]

Pay out the ass for a god damn closer while we have big rotation issues to shore up (among other things)? Why not just sell your car for gas money while you're at it.

 

Agreed there. And I wouldn't resign Papi, either, though Cherington is saying they might resign Papi because of his PR value and the lack of much interest in him elsewhere. I.E., they can get him cheap--maybe a 1+1. He is still a gamble to come back at his age. But his OWar (3.8) was higher than Pap's (2.1) last year, and he'll come cheaper.

 

I also think Lucchino is calling the shots on these personnel decisions right now. Theo had to put on a gorilla suit to get that responsibility five years ago. I doubt Cherington is on his own here with these FA decisions. Not as a newbie GM.

And not with Theo's FA record in recent years.

[SoxSport]

Just as important i think the Phils believe they are pretty well set up to win it all....probably think they should have this last year. So it is a good year for them to bring in what they would hope to be a "slam the door" closer. If they don't have to use him the way the Sox had to at the end of last year' date=' that should be what they have for the post season.[/quote']

 

Ha. The Phillies had the best team in baseball last year. The most wins, the best pitching, etc.

Where did that get them in the playoffs? They got beat by a hot team in a short series.

 

There isn't really much they can do to improve. But there are things they can do to make things worse. For example, not re-signing Rollins. Whether they have Pap or Madsen as closer doesn't make much difference. But Pap is a bigger risk, having spiked in a contract year last year, and having a mediocre WAR (2.1). Actually, I prefer Madsen--more pitches. But you can't get him at a reasonable price with Boras.

[jung]

Gosh Boras is such a factor. The Madson deal was apparently squirreled at the last minute by Phils ownership as the owner would not sign. However, I wonder if what that really means is that the owner ended up so hot under the collar that he refused to sign Madson as a Boras client.

[jacksonianmarch]

You prefer....Madson....to...Papelbon. Seriously, WTF? Really? Papelbon showed he could do it in the AL East on the biggest stage. He closed out a world series and was the badass at the end of your pen. Madson has been very good over the last few yrs, but not having to close out AL lineups changes things a little. The only thing Madson has him on is ERA, which isnt entirely pitcher dependent.

[jacksonianmarch]

Many of the national and local writers are saying the exact same thing I am.

 

This move stings today.... but its still an absolutely terrible contract.

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/2011/11/11/papelbon-departure-stings/bxTDYN1NrhQ1YzXQI3f1JO/story.html

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Papelbon-signs-with-Philly-for-60-million-shi;_ylt=Aine_HzdnHanjIXJlBCsUCI5nYcB?urn=mlb-wp26756

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story?id=7220970&_slug_=2011-mlb-free-agency-pitcher-jonathan-papelbon-signs-phillies&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fhotstove11%2fstory%3fid%3d7220970%26_slug_%3d2011-mlb-free-agency-pitcher-jonathan-papelbon-signs-phillies

 

I havent disagreed with you at all. This is a big money contract in length and AAV, and is unprecedented in the history of closers. From a business standpoint, this is a risky deal. It all depends, though, on what the sox planned to allocate towards Paps and what that vesting option is. If the vesting option vests after the first 3 yrs if he makes 180 appearances, then that's actually a good thing. If it vests if he puts on the uniform once over the next 4 yrs, then it's a bad deal. They say the option is easily reachable, but that doesnt help. If all it entails is that he stays healthy, then that is actually a big deal when talking about closers

[Elktonnick]

Ha. The Phillies had the best team in baseball last year. The most wins, the best pitching, etc.

Where did that get them in the playoffs? They got beat by a hot team in a short series.

 

There isn't really much they can do to improve. But there are things they can do to make things worse. For example, not re-signing Rollins. Whether they have Pap or Madsen as closer doesn't make much difference. But Pap is a bigger risk, having spiked in a contract year last year, and having a mediocre WAR (2.1). Actually, I prefer Madsen--more pitches. But you can't get him at a reasonable price with Boras.

 

The Phillies know their market. Madson was a one year wonder. Yes he had 32 saves last year but only 20 saves the previous 7 years. Madson doesn't excite fans here the same way Paps does. In baseball terms no question Paps is a riskier contract. I don't think this was purely a baseball decision. The Phils may have been the best team in baseball last year but phillies fans are like Red sox fans---what have you done for me lately.

[SoxSport]

You prefer....Madson....to...Papelbon. Seriously' date=' WTF? Really? Papelbon showed he could do it in the AL East on the biggest stage. He closed out a world series and was the badass at the end of your pen. Madson has been very good over the last few yrs, but not having to close out AL lineups changes things a little. The only thing Madson has him on is ERA, which isnt entirely pitcher dependent.[/quote']

 

Remember, Pap really sucked his previous two years, and there was some question that he was over the hill--common for closers. These guys don't last long--for the most part.

[jung]

Even in this a pretty darned good year for Pap, you could tell that when push came to shove, Pap for the most part had one answer...rear back and throw harder and that is hard to get away with especially in the post season where the hitters are more focused and can get into this cycle of fouling off balls until they have adjusted to your heat and until you make a mistake with your location.

 

Mariano has had enough versatility so that in some instances once he had you two strikes, he had you. Not only does he not have to throw you a fastball it is unlikely that he will.

 

Not saying Madson is Mariano....nobody is but just saying that there are times over the years especially when Paps gets into one of those duals with a hitter that you can just see the guy catching up to Paps fastball as the at bat progresses.

[User Name]

Remember' date=' Pap really sucked his previous two years, and there was some question that he was over the hill--common for closers. These guys don't last long--for the most part.[/quote']

 

This is not correct though. He was excellent in 2009.

[jung]

Sox ended up cramming a high number of games into a short period of time at the end of 2011 and Paps pitched in just about all of them if not in fact all of them and he finally wore down. Understandable I think.

[Palodios]

This is not correct though. He was excellent in 2009.

 

His ERA was excellent, but his walks and WHIP were way up, and he also had 90% LOB numbers. That's 90% LOB with Vmart as his catcher for half the year. Lucky is a better word for his 2009.

[VA Sox Fan]

Good luck to Paps in Philly. Thanks for everything.

 

I see the usual suspects are up to their bitching and moaning. Ben the Boob? Seriously

a700? I am truly sorry for your horrific year. Lighten up bro.