Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Lester82]

another quote from the ESPNBoston link :

 

They are in a precarious short-term/long-term place right now, and realize 2010 and 2011 may be slight downturns until they retool for a big and long run beginning in 2012.

 

I'm wondering how fun these next two seasons may be... It's going to be hard at times to take a transition year in 2010. But 2011 as well? I guess this could happen.

 

But I'm sorry-- this team can not justify with it's financial resources having both of 2010 and 2011 being years before a new run. They will actually have to sign a major free agent again, with the market next year having some real gems... they can't just use 2011 as more 'hope to get in the playoffs, but not necessarily be built to win all' time.

 

I accept 2010 is probably a transition year, which doesn't mean not contending by any means, but is very likely to still have the declining Ortiz, Lowell and perhaps no major offensive move.

[example1]

But I'm sorry-- this team can not justify with it's financial resources having both of 2010 and 2011 being years before a new run.

 

You have to define what a run is. I think it is reasonable to expect this team to compete every year. Whether that means they have a dynastic core or not is a separate issue. I think they're planning for a dynastic run, not two largely different teams surrounding two players (2004, 2007, Ortiz and Ramirez).

 

They will actually have to sign a major free agent again, with the market next year having some real gems... they can't just use 2011 as more 'hope to get in the playoffs, but not necessarily be built to win all' time.

 

I'm sure they will sign FAs again. The question is which players will the Yankees let through and of those which are the Sox willing to overpay to ensure they get? Draft picks are extremely valuable, so they should maxamize this by signing FAs in groups to avoid a significant draft penalty (like 3 years of losing your 1st round pick).

 

I accept 2010 is probably a transition year, which doesn't mean not contending by any means, but is very likely to still have the declining Ortiz, Lowell and perhaps no major offensive move.

 

I think this is probably right. I would consider landing Bay or Holliday a pretty major offensive move though, if only because it cements another lineup spot for the next 4-6 years.

 

The Sox should compete into the playoffs next year and could be baseball's best team with some good "chemistry" and health and perhaps an addition or two. At the same time, they have a chance with prospects like Kelly and Westmoreland to add high impact, cost controlled players down the not-too-distant-road, so keeping them might be in the team's best interest.

 

Remember how in 2007 Lester and Ellsbury both contributed to that WS as afterthoughts? Pedroia was an established player, but he was a rookie. I don't think any were as highly thought of as Westmoreland is through this point of his career.

 

I also think given what we've seen from the highly touted Red Sox pitching prospects who have arrived on the scene, Casey Kelly must project really well for people to be so excited about him. If Kelly ends up like a RH Lester then we're really in for a treat in the next few years and any decision about "selling the farm" now could have big implications for the longterm success of this team from 2011-2017.

[Lester82]

"and of those which are the Sox willing to overpay to ensure they get? "

 

I'm afraid they set their line in the sand-- i.e., the 'value' they place on a free agent-- and sometimes won't pay what the market will bear. This franchise is going to have to actually pay the money for a prime offensive talent. I hate to give Dan Duquette credit sometimes, but the Manny Ramirez signing obviously was a tremendous move in Red Sox history. Or at least in modern Red Sox history. I know, Theo tried last year, and Teix unfortunately had to end up a Yankee. Obviously that part was beyond Theo's control when the Yankees bid higher and highest.

[BSN07]

If the Sox make minimal short term moves and hold steady until some off the "old" contracts come off the books, it wouldn't be surprising. I would expect them to contend for the WC like normal. Their core is good enough for that. Winning the division and making a deep run in the playoffs is a different story(of course any team can get on a hot streak).

 

Like I said before, outside of a long term deal for Holliday or a 4 yr deal for Ba,. I don't think the Sox make a big FA splash. 2011 I would have a harder time believing they wouldn't be involved in the FA market.

[Lester82]

" 2011 I would have a harder time believing they wouldn't be involved in the FA market."

 

I agree. But I also think Gammons drops things in his columns that are from the Red Sox front office.

 

(The Red Sox actually told him after 2007 that they basically had "no chance" of re-signing Beckett after seeing Santana's new deal.)

 

So, I believe this too could possibly be Gammons saying something via the Red Sox execs:

 

They are in a precarious short-term/long-term place right now, and realize 2010 and 2011 may be slight downturns until they retool for a big and long run beginning in 2012.

 

Ok, ah... nice.

[Lester82]

"Winning the division and making a deep run in the playoffs is a different story"

 

By the way, I'm not one that believes that winning the division goes hand in hand with making a deep playoff run. I think it's realistic to say that in most years the Yankees will win the division, they were built in the 2000's to be regular-season bullies with all their expensive talent (but up until this year, not necessarily W.S. winners.)

[Lester82]

BTW-

 

Jon Heyman is the best in the business (only kidding....)

 

the #redsox may stay in touch with jason bay, but competing execs believe theyre looking at hard at alternatives now

 

- via his twitter -

 

Um, Heyman.... OF COURSE the Red Sox will keep in touch with Bay. And now that free agency opened, obviously the Red Sox are looking hard at alternatives.

[BSN07]

BTW-

 

Jon Heyman is the best in the business (only kidding....)

 

the #redsox may stay in touch with jason bay, but competing execs believe theyre looking at hard at alternatives now

 

- via his twitter -

 

Um, Heyman.... OF COURSE the Red Sox will keep in touch with Bay. And now that free agency opened, obviously the Red Sox are looking hard at alternatives.

 

I think the Sox are going to put together a good offer for Holliday first. If he doesn't take it, I think they will move on sooner rather then later(maybe the negotiate a little, but I think they are going to make an offer and stick pretty close to it, I don't think they do the dance with Boras this off season) and make Bay the priority. They might up the AAV in order to get Bay to take 4 years.

[Gom]

I love how the Red Sox are primed for a big run in 2012. Funny s***.

 

Considering that the Yankees are stockpiling talent, and have ceased for the most part trading blue chip talent for fading veterans...the Blue Jays will probably trade Holliday and be primed to make a run in a few years...Baltimore can really only go up...

 

It's always sunny in Red Sox Nation...until October, at least 95% of the time.

 

Useless drivel.

[Gom]

In other news, Arnoldis Chapman dropped API and is going with the Hendricks brothers. For Yankee fans, this is great news. The Hendricks have a great relationship with Cashman.

[Spudboy]

Vital input from the sharpest knife in the drawer!

[Gom]

Vital input from the sharpest knife in the drawer!

 

Go back to sleep. You're an idiot.

[Spudboy]

Go back to sleep. You're an idiot.

 

Thanks Gom. Coming from you, I'll take that as a compliment.

[BSN07]

Go back to sleep. You're an idiot.

 

With how last off season went and the Yanks Championship run I knew you were primed for all time doucheness, but this is ridiculous. Take some riddilin or something.

[BSN07]

I love how the Red Sox are primed for a big run in 2012. Funny s***.

 

Considering that the Yankees are stockpiling talent, and have ceased for the most part trading blue chip talent for fading veterans...the Blue Jays will probably trade Holliday and be primed to make a run in a few years...Baltimore can really only go up...

 

It's always sunny in Red Sox Nation...until October, at least 95% of the time.

 

Useless drivel.

 

That's probably about the time the best of the Red Sox prospects should be ready, you know sort of like 2007 when they had multiple prospects come up and contribute to a WS run.

 

I would imagine this more of what i believe he may be alluding to, not that the Sox will not make any runs at big name FA until 2012.

[BoSox21]

the Blue Jays will probably trade Holliday and be primed to make a run in a few years...Baltimore can really only go up

 

*sigh*

[BSN07]

*sigh*

 

He doesn't look at the names when he's "watching" the games.

[example1]

*sigh*

 

He doesn't look at the names when he's "watching" the games.

 

Alright guys, cut him some slack. We shouldn't expect him to be smug and accurate.

[BSN07]

Alright guys' date=' cut him some slack. We shouldn't expect him to be smug [i']and[/i] accurate.

 

[BSN07]

Oh well, back to Hot Stove talk.

 

 

 

I think Josh Johnson may have turned into my new #1 trade target. I think he could be signed for a Beckett type extension after being traded for. Not sure what the price tag would be though. That and will the marlins move him now while his value is probably the highest it's ever been, or risk it and try and get more at the TDL or next off season :dunno:

 

Kelly(Westmoreland)+Bowden+Anderson+MDC(Reddick)????

 

Does Florida hang up the phone laughing or intrigued?

 

Beckett

Lester

JJ

Buchholz

Dice-K

 

drool...

[Spudboy]

Alright guys' date=' cut him some slack. We shouldn't expect him to be smug [i']and[/i] accurate.

 

:lol::lol:

[Spudboy]

Oh well, back to Hot Stove talk.

 

 

 

I think Josh Johnson may have turned into my new #1 trade target. I think he could be signed for a Beckett type extension after being traded for. Not sure what the price tag would be though. That and will the marlins move him now while his value is probably the highest it's ever been, or risk it and try and get more at the TDL or next off season :dunno:

 

Kelly(Westmoreland)+Bowden+Anderson+MDC(Reddick)????

 

Does Florida hang up the phone laughing or intrigued?

 

Beckett

Lester

JJ

Buchholz

Dice-K

 

drool...

 

Umm...

 

It defiantly would come down to what the price tag would be. Anderson? Sure. But three others? No thanks.

 

If the Sox are inclined to trade for a "High upside" pitcher, I'd prefer the buy-in be a little lower. Kelly and Westmorland should be coveted. To be used as chips ONLY in trades for someone like Adrien Gonzalez. Nothing less. Otherwise, I'd like to see Johnson in Fenway.

[example1]

Oh well, back to Hot Stove talk.

 

 

 

I think Josh Johnson may have turned into my new #1 trade target. I think he could be signed for a Beckett type extension after being traded for. Not sure what the price tag would be though. That and will the marlins move him now while his value is probably the highest it's ever been, or risk it and try and get more at the TDL or next off season :dunno:

 

Kelly(Westmoreland)+Bowden+Anderson+MDC(Reddick)????

 

Does Florida hang up the phone laughing or intrigued?

 

Beckett

Lester

JJ

Buchholz

Dice-K

 

drool...

 

I think the Sox will be looking at all deals they can make that don't involve Buchholz, Kelly, Westmoreland, Iglesias, and maybe a few more of their very top prospects.

 

As frustrating as this may be for some of us, it makes a lot of sense. If Kelly and Westmoreland become what they appear able to become, why would they trade 2, 3, or 4 times that amount of talent to get someone who is already at that point?

 

Personally, I don't understand all the hype around Kelly, but if his body projects to be 6-4 and he projects to have a strong frame with great command and stuff (per Gammons article) then I understand a) why they paid so much for him and coddled him allowing him to pretend to be a SS, and why the Sox would not be willing to move him. He sounds like Jon Lester, and thats worked out very well. The explanations about why they won't move Westmoreland seem a lot easier to understand IMO.

 

 

In any case, I don't think we should be shocked if they plan to get the best pieces they can without moving that group, and then reap the benefits when their current group, plus those acquired players, plus the guys they saved, plus a few FA buys here and there, end up having an amazing team in 3-4 years.

 

I'm not pretending that every prospect will make it, but I think the FO has shown that they are capable of knowing high-level talent when they see it. If they think Kelly is in the Buchholz/Lester class, then I'm willing to believe them and advocate for just holding onto those players.

 

Josh Johnson would be nice, but I imagine the Sox opening up their minor league system without offering their very best pieces.

[Cocos Disciples]

Thinking about a Johnson trade, I think the Bedard to Seattle deal is a reasonable place to look. Both were coming off of very good career years. Bedard was a few years older. The Orioles got Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman and two other prospects. That's a pretty enormous value. I don't know who it would take, if Florida is even going to consider a trade, but I think that's a good comparison.

 

Of course, Bedard was a LHP and had played more full seasons.

[jacksonianmarch]

Johnson will cost something similar CD. He's still under control for another 2 seasons and the Marlins know how to scout. If you spare Buchholz from the deal, then you will gut the top of your farm

[BoSox21]

I don't know why we always try and predict what it will take from our farm system to get certain guys. There's a general sense of surprise whenever we trade prospects for anyone in the sense of what it took to get the guy so why even try and say "well, if we try and get this guy, our farm will be a barren wasteland". I get why Jacko does it but not really anyone else.

[Keeper]

Josh Johnson is an ace when he's healthy, but the man is brittle. He's Kerry Wood Jr.

 

Jul 10, 2008: Missed 91 games (elbow surgery).

Mar 29, 2008: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (elbow surgery).

Mar 24, 2008: Elbow surgery, 15-day DL.

Oct 1, 2007: Missed the last 77 games of the regular season (forearm injury).

Aug 10, 2007: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (forearm injury).

Jul 5, 2007: Forearm injury, 15-day DL.

Jun 18, 2007: Missed 70 games (bicep injury).

Mar 31, 2007: Bicep injury, 15-day DL.

Sep 21, 2006: Right forearm injury, day-to-day.

 

Why do you guys want Johnson again? I wouldn't give up any prospects for him. As far as durability is concerned, he's one of the worst starters in all of baseball.

[Dipre]

As Keeper said, his injury history is extremely shady.

 

Pass.

[BSN07]

Umm...

 

It defiantly would come down to what the price tag would be. Anderson? Sure. But three others? No thanks.

 

If the Sox are inclined to trade for a "High upside" pitcher, I'd prefer the buy-in be a little lower. Kelly and Westmorland should be coveted. To be used as chips ONLY in trades for someone like Adrien Gonzalez. Nothing less. Otherwise, I'd like to see Johnson in Fenway.

 

It's not Kelly and Westmoreland, it's one or the other.

[Gom]

Thanks Gom. Coming from you' date=' I'll take that as a compliment.[/quote']

By going to sleep, you'll improve your posting.

 

On another front, I sure do get the spelling of Holliday/Halladay wrong pretty often, don't I? LOL!!!

 

I'm not saying that the Red Sox won't have quality players coming up. However, so will the Yankees. The Blue Jays will look to restock with HALLADAY most likely traded. The Orioles have some good young players. Who the f*** knows about Tampa?

 

Where the Red Sox had a the majority of quality homegrown talent in the AL East in the last 10 years, I think that gap has shrunk.