Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[example1]

f*** something needs to happen I'm going to paint my walls with my brain if I have to keep reading this ********.

 

I agree. Sorry man.

[Dipre]

They should sign John Mcdonald.

 

That would get the ball rolling.

[Red Foreman]

Throughout the past year' date=' I believe that I have confined my discussions to trading him for Gonzalez, Halladay, Lee, or Felix. Where did you get the idea that I thought it would be an easy upgrade? It would also take more than Buchholz to get anyone of those guys, because his potential is greater than his accomplishments. The Sox would not consider trading Lester or Pedroia for any of those guys, because it would create another huge hole to fill. It would also be very questionable whether Halladay, Lee or Felix would be an upgrade over Lester. [b']Buchholz is not yet close to having the status of Lester or Pedroia. [/b]That's a fact. This is what I am saying. I am not saying that Buchholz stinks or that he would be an easy upgrade. Those are words and sentiments that you are trying to attribute to me. I reject those ideas. He is our biggest trading chip that could be moved in the off season in a very big deal. The other guys (Lester, Pedroia) are not trading chips. There is no chance they get moved.

 

 

I absolutely love Dustin out there and appreciate your appreciation of him but if there wasn't much else involved the Sox would have a hard time explaining why they turned down a deal for three of the four you mention. I'm speaking strictly on performance and not knowing the paramaters of any given deal. Just saying it would bother me to a degree that he was gone but three of those four have more to offer IMO. Lee is close also.

[Red Foreman]

Is it so hard to understand that Lowrie who can't play more than 30 games witout getting injured and who hits .150 would be easier to replace than Melky Cabrera?

 

 

The Sox would have to sign or trade for an SS to replace Lowrie, all the Yankees have to do is insert Gardner.

[bsox0407]

The Sox would have to sign or trade for an SS to replace Lowrie' date=' all the Yankees have to do is insert Gardner.[/quote']

 

We just have to wait until Iglesias. he is a few years away. Can't wait to see how he does in Spring training. he does well enough and we just have lowrie he may be on the 25 man roster.

[Red Foreman]

He's a solid 4th OF option' date=' but he's more valuable at this point than Lowrie.[/quote']

 

 

I agree with that. Like I said, he's accomplished more to date but I equate a utility player to a fourth OF. Maybe I mis-read you but you didn't say he was more than Lowrie, you said he was more than a utility player. At least that is how I read it.

[Red Foreman]

We just have to wait until Iglesias. he is a few years away. Can't wait to see how he does in Spring training. he does well enough and we just have lowrie he may be on the 25 man roster.

 

If he pans out for sure. I'm talking about opening day 2010.

[bsox0407]

If he pans out for sure. I'm talking about opening day 2010.

 

yeah so was I. he could split time if he and Lowrie are our only big league SS. no Gonzo.

[Red Foreman]

yeah so was I. he could split time if he and Lowrie are our only big league SS. no Gonzo.

 

Got ya, I'm speaking about what we know so far based on ML performance and so far it looks like Gardner could step right in and the Yankees don't miss Gardner. Iglesias still hase something to prove IMO, then again, so does Lowrie.

[bsox0407]

Got ya' date=' I'm speaking about what we know so far based on ML performance and so far it looks like Gardner could step right in and the Yankees don't miss Gardner. Iglesias still hase something to prove IMO, then again, so does Lowrie.[/quote']

 

Iglesias is going to really good. he is considered to be like Orlando Cabrera at this time. he has done really well lately with the bat and the bat is his weak point. his D and his range and arm are top notch.

[Red Foreman]

Iglesias is going to really good. he is considered to be like Orlando Cabrera at this time. he has done really well lately with the bat and the bat is his weak point. his D and his range and arm are top notch.

 

I'm really impressed by his bat speed through the zone. He doesn't swing wildly (based n the few ABs I've seen) but he just misses on some of those swings. If he makes some regular contact he should be a keeper.

[TheKilo]

I agree. Sorry man.

 

It's not you, dude. Lots of people are talking a lot without saying anything, which isn't your MO.

[Dipre]

It's not you' date=' dude. Lots of people are talking a lot without saying anything, which isn't your MO.[/quote']

 

I plead guilty.

 

I'm just annoyed at some people's unwarranted sense of superiority.

 

Apologies.

[Lester82]

Mike Lowell:

 

Red Sox willing to eat 6 million of his salary to get him traded.

 

-Ken Rosenthal's blog

 

Rival exec doubts anyone wants Lowell at 6 mill.

[Lester82]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594

[TheKilo]

Mike Lowell:

 

Red Sox willing to eat 6 million of his salary to get him traded.

 

-Ken Rosenthal's blog

 

Rival exec doubts anyone wants Lowell at 6 mill.

 

That's really interesting. Color me surprised that the FO would be willing to do this without a defined replacement bat in place.

 

(Please please please please be Miguel Cabrera)

[Dipre]

That's really interesting. Color me surprised that the FO would be willing to do this without a defined replacement bat in place.

 

(Please please please please be Miguel Cabrera)

 

Please just be anyone that can f***ing hit cleanup. Jesus Christ.

[example1]

That's really interesting. Color me surprised that the FO would be willing to do this without a defined replacement bat in place.

 

(Please please please please be Miguel Cabrera)

 

Yeah, I really like the idea of Cabrera. I'm not as worried about his character issues, he's got a lot of career ahead of him. With his cost I would hope that it wouldn't cost as much as getting, say, Gonzalez or Hernandez. Of course, it would cost that much though.

[a700hitter]

Their values are definitely different. If the categories that I was talking about were "Lester level value" vs. "all other values" then your criticism would be appropriate. I'm not saying they have the same value. I'm saying they can be categorized the same way; namely' date=' they can both be categorized as players who the FO is not looking to upgrade on. [/quote']If the FO is going to actively pursue Felix as you would like and they are willing to part with Buchholz for him, whose spot would they be upgrading?

 

When we talk about value I simply cannot think about it without refering to money. I know that the FO sees things that way, as does every other FO in baseball. The marginal value of the player has to be taken into account.

 

With more time on his initial contract, no escilating longterm deal, and his stuff, Buchholz gains value. I would argue that his youth/inexperience is exactly one of the things that makes him valuable. We probably differ on that.

Lester, Pedroia and Ellsbury have contracts that are very good values compared to their performance, so their cost would not be helpful in comparing Buchholz's value to theirs.

I think we agree on this. Of course' date=' the return is really what makes it a good deal or not. The same would be true if they were thinking of trading Lester for Pujols.[/quote']A very realistic scenario.

When you take into account Buchholz's likely value over the next 5 years and his cost' date=' he may have a particularly high upside to a team like Seattle who is confronted with Felix being willing to resign there, or rebuilding a franchise through a trade of Gonzalez like in San Diego. Most teams hold onto guys like that for a long time. If another team is willing to deal a possible HOF pitcher in his early 20's, an MVP caliber 1B, or another player like that, yes, you seek to upgrade using that player. That's not a shot to Buchholz.[/quote']Here's the only relevant part of this quote:

If another team is willing to deal a possible HOF pitcher in his early 20's, an MVP caliber 1B, or another player like that, yes, you seek to upgrade using that player.

...and I wasn't taking a shot at Buchholz either. I was just giving my opinion of his value compared to Paps, Lester, Pedroia and Ellsbury.

There are players I would trade Lester for too.

But assuming that you could find a willing trading partner, you would have to replace our #1/#2 starter.

 

Hell' date=' I would definitely consider trading Pedroia for Utley if the situation presented itself, but I won't be mad if the Sox don't spend their time pursuing it.[/quote']A extremely unlikely scenario.

 

I have advocated pretty consistently that I would prefer that they keep Buchholz. I think he will be a definite part of this rotation moving forward. However' date=' if they have the chance to get Felix and have Felix and Lester through their 20's I think that is too much to pass up.[/quote']You have vigorously advocated about how Felix would be a perfect fit on the Sox. If they actively pursue Felix, they would most likely be upgrading Buchholz's spot.

[Lester82]

oh, god no more fightin'

[example1]

If the FO is going to actively pursue Felix as you would like and they are willing to part with Buchholz for him, whose spot would they be upgrading?

 

You have vigorously advocated about how Felix would be a perfect fit on the Sox. If they actively pursue Felix, they would most likely be upgrading Buchholz's spot.

 

I have advocated for trying to make this move without Buchholz. I think that the team would be better off upgrading Dice-K's spot or Wakefield's spot. I think the Red Sox would prefer to keep Buchholz over Wake or Matsuzaka. I'm doubtful that is possible.

 

I think getting Felix is about upgrading the rotation, not any particular player. Felix would be an upgrade for everyone. He would be better than Lester or Beckett and would be a safety net against Beckett leaving the following season, so in that sense he would ultimately be an upgrade on Beckett.

 

The way I see it, we're not talking about an outright attempt to upgrade Buchholz. It is an attempt to upgrade the rotation and Buchholz (in this scenario) would be a necessary casualty.

[a700hitter]

I have advocated for trying to make this move without Buchholz. I think that the team would be better off upgrading Dice-K's spot or Wakefield's spot. I think the Red Sox would prefer to keep Buchholz over Wake or Matsuzaka. I'm doubtful that is possible.

 

I think getting Felix is about upgrading the rotation, not any particular player. Felix would be an upgrade for everyone. He would be better than Lester or Beckett and would be a safety net against Beckett leaving the following season, so in that sense he would ultimately be an upgrade on Beckett.

 

The way I see it, we're not talking about an outright attempt to upgrade Buchholz. It is an attempt to upgrade the rotation and Buchholz (in this scenario) would be a necessary casualty.

Let's be realistic, the FO knows that if they are going to pursue Felix, it's going to cost them Buchholz. They know that they are not going to be able to move Dice K in that trade. So again, realizing that Buchholz would be the most likely casualty, if the Sox actively pursue Felix, whose roster spot would they be upgrading? They wouldn't be upgrading Lester or Beckett, because they would still have those guys. If they do what you have been panting for-- getting Felix, they'll be upgrading over Buchholz.

[Lester82]

I didn't realize it, but M.Lowell has no-trade protection and will have some say here

[example1]

Let's be realistic' date=' the FO knows that if they are going to pursue Felix, it's going to cost them Buchholz. They know that they are not going to be able to move Dice K in that trade. So again, realizing that Buchholz would be the most likely casualty, if the Sox actively pursue Felix, whose roster spot would they be upgrading? They wouldn't be upgrading Lester or Beckett, because they would still have those guys. If they do what you have been panting for-- getting Felix, they'll be upgrading over Buchholz.[/quote']

 

Again with the rigidity.

 

If it makes you happy to see it as intentionally upgrading over Buchholz--and therefore Buchholz doesn't belong in the class of other homegrown talent whom the Sox are not actively seeking to upgrade--then fine. I don't think that of all their pitchers they are most worried about Buchholz and his longterm value to the team. If he's the one that would have to go to upgrade the rotation then so be it. There's 5 spots so obviously there is some give and take.

 

If they have the chance to get an elite player they would let him go, but they would probably let go of Papelbon and just about every other player if the right offer came along so I don't see how that proves any sort of intentionality.

 

I still put Buchholz in the "we don't need to upgrade him" class along with a number of other players who would be upgraded in a heartbeat if the right deal came along. Obviously you think they believe he needs to be upgraded. If you don't think they believe he needs to be upgraded, then stop arguing, because we agree about nearly everything else related to this discussion.

[a700hitter]

Again with the rigidity.

 

If it makes you happy to see it as intentionally upgrading over Buchholz--and therefore Buchholz doesn't belong in the class of other homegrown talent whom the Sox are not actively seeking to upgrade--then fine. I don't think that of all their pitchers they are most worried about Buchholz and his longterm value to the team. If he's the one that would have to go to upgrade the rotation then so be it. There's 5 spots so obviously there is some give and take.

 

If they have the chance to get an elite player they would let him go, but they would probably let go of Papelbon and just about every other player if the right offer came along so I don't see how that proves any sort of intentionality.

 

I still put Buchholz in the "we don't need to upgrade him" class along with a number of other players who would be upgraded in a heartbeat if the right deal came along. Obviously you think they believe he needs to be upgraded. If you don't think they believe he needs to be upgraded, then stop arguing, because we agree about nearly everything else related to this discussion.

Buchholz is not the weak link in the staff. He may be more productive than Dice K in 2010, and i hope he will be more productive than Wakefield. The FO will not move Lester or Beckett to upgrade the pitching staff, because they are the aces. They can't move Dice k or Wakefield, because neither would bring back an upgrade. The only commodity that could bring back an upgrade would be Buchholz. You have concluded that the FO has decided that they don't need to upgrade Buchholz. I think the FO is looking to upgrade the Starting Pitching. That will either come in the form of a FA acquisition like Lackey or a trade that would involve Buchholz. Even if the upgrade to the staff is done via free agency, it probably would be initially at the expense of Buchholz. I don't think they would cut Wakefield or send Dice k to the bullpen or the minors, so Buchholz would be the initial casualty. Where we disagree is that I believe that if the FO decides to upgrade the rotation in 2010, it will be at the expense of Buchholz, and I think that the FO is cognizant of that fact. That doesn't mean that he stinks.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think this should show people a good barometer of Mike Lowell's worth. He had a .713OPS outside of Fenway last season and didnt play 120 games for a second yr in a row. He is not worth even half the money he is paid.

 

Also, the rumor I have seen now thrice is that the sox will be heavily pursuing Adrian Beltre should Adrian Gonzalez not be a feasible option

[BSN07]

It's not you' date=' dude. Lots of people are talking a lot without saying anything, which isn't your MO.[/quote']

 

Ya, I probably fall in there somewhere at some point, just like Dipre Apologies.

[BSN07]

I think this should show people a good barometer of Mike Lowell's worth. He had a .713OPS outside of Fenway last season and didnt play 120 games for a second yr in a row. He is not worth even half the money he is paid.

 

Also, the rumor I have seen now thrice is that the sox will be heavily pursuing Adrian Beltre should Adrian Gonzalez not be a feasible option

 

I've said before that given he can strength train this off season instead of only being able to rehab should help him a lot. I think he could give some team 120-130 games at 3B. Philly might be interested. Especially at 6M. And they play in a very nice hitters park that Loweel could benefit from.

 

Beltre has a great glove and his bat could fit well in Fenway. Interesting option.

[jacksonianmarch]

when you trade for someone, though, you dont have the luxury of offering them an incentive type deal, which Lowell should get. Plus, I think people are deceiving themselves if they think he is going to go from statue to anything but a statue in the field.

[Dipre]

In this instance, i believe captain optimism is right about the defense side of things, however, offensively, upon further research, which he didn't take the time to do, you'll notice that Lowell's home/away splits vary from year to year, so you could call this a part of the trend.

 

Since 2006, Lowell's home/away splits (OPS-wise):

 

2006: 763/866

 

2007: 993/767

 

2008: 766/823

 

2009: 932/713

 

Notice the trend anyone?