Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Lester82]

buster olney said the red sox won't do anything this offseason, he said that he doesn't see the red sox being able to make any moves

 

that guy Buster is such a...

http://www.boboandfriends.com/images/bozo.jpg

[example1]

There is one area of contention that I have with E1. I admit that I don't know enough about the Red Sox farm system to make a fair assessment, but I would be a bit surprised if the Blue Jays traded him to the Red Sox (especially considering it's in the division) without demanding Buchholz. Granted, E1, you know much more about these guys than I do, but I just think the Blue Jays would be hesitant to deal him within the division if they weren't blown away.

 

I think they will find that nobody offers them someone like Buchholz. I dubt they would ask for him.

 

Kelly was rated as a five-star prospect by BP. Bowden could start for Tornoto right now, and Reddick could contribute to the big club right away too. Anderson or Rizzo could develop into a very good mid-order bat in a few years, Stolmey is 19 and is probably the 3rd or 4th best pitching prospect on the Sox.

 

I'm not sure it would be these players exactly, but that's 4 of Boston's BP top 10 (#s 2, 3, 8 and 9) and #14.

[yankees228]

I think they will find that nobody offers them someone like Buchholz. I dubt they would ask for him.

 

Kelly was rated as a five-star prospect by BP. Bowden could start for Tornoto right now, and Reddick could contribute to the big club right away too. Anderson or Rizzo could develop into a very good mid-order bat in a few years, Stolmey is 19 and is probably the 3rd or 4th best pitching prospect on the Sox.

 

I'm not sure it would be these players exactly, but that's 4 of Boston's BP top 10 (#s 2, 3, 8 and 9) and #14.

 

Fair enough. Thank you for the explanation.

[Lester82]

Although Bowden is now someone a lot of people are rightfully not high on... could be a 3rd, 4th starter in the major leagues.

 

-sorry, just don't see a high ceiling for him

[example1]

Fair enough. Thank you for the explanation.

 

Sure thing.

 

*note: By "I doubt they would ask for him"... I mean they'll ask for him, but they should know he won't be available and not be deterred from discussion because of that fact.

[yankees228]

Sure thing.

 

*note: By "I doubt they would ask for him"... I mean they'll ask for him, but they should know he won't be available and not be deterred from discussion because of that fact.

 

Right I understand. One more thing though. You said that you're not advocating for the Sox to necessarily extend Halladay, just that you want him for the 2010 season, and then possibly extend him or Beckett later. Don't you think, considering his NTC, that he's going to ask for an extension in order for the trade to be completed (like Schilling, Johnson, and Santana, for example)? Has Halladay said otherwise?

[Paradisecity]

Right I understand. One more thing though. You said that you're not advocating for the Sox to necessarily extend Halladay' date=' just that you want him for the 2010 season, and then possibly extend him or Beckett later. Don't you think, considering his NTC, that he's going to ask for an extension in order for the trade to be completed (like Schilling, Johnson, and Santana, for example)? Has Halladay said otherwise?[/quote']

 

No link, but I'm pretty sure Halladay said that he wants to test free agency, so he would probably be all for that.

[Gom]

I find it very hard to believe that the Sox will sign the best hitter, trade for the best pitcher and sign the best international free agent while the rest of baseball watches. Couple this with the fact that this will cost them over 40 million to next years payroll for Hall and Holl and probably a total outlay of 40 million for Chapman....with their primary competitors, the Yankees, shaving 40 million off their payroll and sitting on their wallets.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Although Bowden is now someone a lot of people are rightfully not high on... could be a 3rd, 4th starter in the major leagues.

 

-sorry, just don't see a high ceiling for him

 

You don't need to project as a #1 SP to have good value. Someone who pitches 200 innings with a 4.25 ERA has a lot of value and Bowden would be the 3rd or 4th most desirable piece in the trade, not the centerpiece.

[example1]

I find it very hard to believe that the Sox will sign the best hitter' date=' trade for the best pitcher and sign the best international free agent while the rest of baseball watches. Couple this with the fact that this will cost them over 40 million to next years payroll for Hall and Holl and probably a total outlay of 40 million for Chapman....with their primary competitors, the Yankees, shaving 40 million off their payroll and sitting on their wallets.[/quote']

 

That's basically what you said before. I advocated for them signing either Holliday or Bay. Does that change it for you, or is signing Bay and trading for Halladay also too much for you to imagine them doing as well?

 

I never said the Yankees would just sit on their hands. I think I said above that Figgins, Lackey, Granderson, etc., would also be out there and that I could see the Yankees landing all of them. Perhaps they will sign Holliday and trade for Hallday and sign Chapman themselves. I'm sure you wouldn't be shocked if that happened.

 

I mean, I realize that it is a lot to expect my favorite team to be able to do something that might improve them. To then have the audacity to present that in a forum with self-assured Yankee fans is probably the ultimate in grandiosity.

 

To me, they seem like reasonable ideas and not outside the realm of possibility.

[example1]

Right I understand. One more thing though. You said that you're not advocating for the Sox to necessarily extend Halladay' date=' just that you want him for the 2010 season, and then possibly extend him or Beckett later. Don't you think, considering his NTC, that he's going to ask for an extension in order for the trade to be completed (like Schilling, Johnson, and Santana, for example)? Has Halladay said otherwise?[/quote']

 

If he is open to an extension at a price that the Sox find reasonable then great. However I think he will be happy to get out of Toronto and play for a contender to eventually either get a good contract with that team or become a FA.

[Lester82]

"I find it very hard to believe that the Sox will sign the best hitter, trade for the best pitcher and sign the best international free agent while the rest of baseball watches."

 

If someone said that the Yankees would do all those things while baseball just watches, you wouldn't find it odd. At all.

 

Yankee fans want it all in free agency, but need to be consistent. Other teams have money, and once in awhile, they will flex it .

[Gom]

That's basically what you said before. I advocated for them signing either Holliday or Bay. Does that change it for you, or is signing Bay and trading for Halladay also too much for you to imagine them doing as well?

 

I never said the Yankees would just sit on their hands. I think I said above that Figgins, Lackey, Granderson, etc., would also be out there and that I could see the Yankees landing all of them. Perhaps they will sign Holliday and trade for Hallday and sign Chapman themselves. I'm sure you wouldn't be shocked if that happened.

 

I mean, I realize that it is a lot to expect my favorite team to be able to do something that might improve them. To then have the audacity to present that in a forum with self-assured Yankee fans is probably the ultimate in grandiosity.

 

To me, they seem like reasonable ideas and not outside the realm of possibility.

Two out of three is possible. All three? Highly unlikely.

 

The Sox need an outfielder, so they will probably get either Bay or Holliday. My guess is that they will bring back Bay. I can't see them going for Holliday, mainly because they can bring back Bay for less years and money.

 

Can they trade for Halladay? Yes...and the just might. If I was Toronto, I wouldn't take anything less than the two best prospects from any team. I don't think you can get this deal done without Buchholz or if we jumped in there, without Hughes or Joba. I think a real sleeper team is the Phillies, who still kept their top prospect...can you imagine a rotation topped by Halladay and Lee? Their window is shrinking, they've got two or three years and then we will start seeing the fall off from Utley, Rollins, and Howard, IMO.

 

Also, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Braves get into the fray. Their system is solid, and let's face it...especially in the NL, Halladay is a difference maker. I can see the trading for Halladay and dumping off Lowe, who has some value and/or Vazquez for a combination of salary relief and to recoup some lost prospects for Halladay.

 

I just can't see the money for all three. I fully expect the Sox to pull of one, and quite possibly two. However, with about 40 million added to the payroll for Hall and Holl, and then to top it off with a approximately $40 million for a guy who's going straight to the minors, I can't see it. Not when the Yankees, who have more money, would be interested in two out of the three.

 

This isn't last year, when the Sox weren't interested in CC or Burnett. The only reason the Yankees got involved with Tex IMO was because Henry f***ed up.

[example1]

Two out of three is possible. All three? Highly unlikely.

 

The probability of all three happening is probably low. It is still what I would do to improve the team.

 

I think the rest of your post seems very reasonable and in line with my thinking.

 

Holliday and Halladay would be the necessary moves, Chapman would be the extremely aggressive move and the least likely among the three, as far as I'm concerned.

 

The Sox need an outfielder, so they will probably get either Bay or Holliday. My guess is that they will bring back Bay. I can't see them going for Holliday, mainly because they can bring back Bay for less years and money.

 

This seems totally reasonable to me too. I've thought the whole time that Bay was more likely, but if this team is in line with my thinking then they will go for Holliday--for reasons that Dipre and I highlighted pretty clearly during the playoffs: defense, batting average and consistency, mostly.

 

My thinking is that the Sox would actually be justified going after Holliday, probably at 5m more, because the differences between the two of them is important for their team moving forward.

 

All in all, if their sign either then they haven't lost ground.

 

Can they trade for Halladay? Yes...and the just might. If I was Toronto, I wouldn't take anything less than the two best prospects from any team.

 

For one year at $15.75m? I tink the Jays will want a fair amount. I'm also saying that a deal around the players I listed would be a very nice haul. Bard could be used too, and I suppose that if it means they can keep Buchholz I would send him.

 

I agree about Hughes and Joba, but I think they are less important to the Yankees than Buchholz is. For a team that gets a big portion of its value from its farm system the Red Sox can't afford to send their best prospects without getting back a lot in return. For one year and a very expensive extension I can't imagine the Sox giving up Buchholz for Halladay. If they do it and resign Halladay I certainly won't be upset--it's just money dedicated to winning it all; for a single season it would be too much.

 

Trade and sgn: Buchholz can go

Trade no-sign: No Buchholz

 

I think a real sleeper team is the Phillies, who still kept their top prospect...can you imagine a rotation topped by Halladay and Lee? Their window is shrinking, they've got two or three years and then we will start seeing the fall off from Utley, Rollins, and Howard, IMO.

 

The Phillies are in a very similar position to the Red Sox. I think they both have a lot of reason to be aggressive right now. Both teams seem about one big move away from World Series caliber.

 

Also, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Braves get into the fray. Their system is solid, and let's face it...especially in the NL, Halladay is a difference maker. I can see the trading for Halladay and dumping off Lowe, who has some value and/or Vazquez for a combination of salary relief and to recoup some lost prospects for Halladay.

 

These could happen as well. I just think the Sox pursuing Halladay again makes a whole lot of sense compared to all the options out there and I believe they pursued him very aggressively.

 

I just can't see the money for all three. I fully expect the Sox to pull of one, and quite possibly two. However, with about 40 million added to the payroll for Hall and Holl, and then to top it off with a approximately $40 million for a guy who's going straight to the minors, I can't see it. Not when the Yankees, who have more money, would be interested in two out of the three.

 

If the Yankees believe they need Holliday then they will get him. You know it, and I know it. Some might argue about negotiation tactics or how badly the Sox want him, but the Yankees will like pay him $20m without thinking twice about it. It's sad. He would be their 4th highest paid player, and basically the highest paid player anywhere else.

[Gom]

I can't see the Yankees going after Holliday. It doesn't make sense, not with next year, having Mauer, Crawford, Dunn, Beckett, Lee, and Halladay as free agents. This is another reason why the Red Sox won't spend as much. I think that Mauer is the real prize. I would think both teams would prime themselves for next year. If the Sox go balls to the wall, you're basically giving the Yankees one or two of these next year without them breaking a sweat.

[Lester82]

not really, Sox would still have Beckett, Lowell and Ortiz off the payroll books and no longer be paying Julio Lugo.

 

Love all this money being freed up!

[kreinbihl34]

I can't see the Yankees going after Holliday. It doesn't make sense' date=' not with next year, having Mauer, Crawford, Dunn, Beckett, Lee, and Halladay as free agents. This is another reason why the Red Sox won't spend as much. I think that Mauer is the real prize. I would think both teams would prime themselves for next year. If the Sox go balls to the wall, you're basically giving the Yankees one or two of these next year without them breaking a sweat.[/quote']

 

Actually Gom you're missing a vital point, Ortiz and Lowell are free agents after next year. That's 20+ million coming off the books. Add to the fact the Red Sox have cut the payroll by 30 million since 2007 and I think they can take on Halladay, Bay and add one of the 2010 free agents.

[Gom]

Actually Gom you're missing a vital point' date=' Ortiz and Lowell are free agents after next year. That's 20+ million coming off the books. Add to the fact the Red Sox have cut the payroll by 30 million since 2007 and I think they can take on Halladay, Bay and add one of the 2010 free agents.[/quote']

 

This is a valid point. However, Beckett pretty much eats one of them. Just because they come off the books, doesn't mean they don't need to get replaced.

 

The Yankees have Damon, Matsui, and Pettitte coming off the books. All three need to be replaced in one way or another.

 

If you lose Ortiz, Lowell, Beckett and V-Mart you have to replace them with comparable players.

 

Keep in mind also...everyone has a tendency to believe the status quo will continue. The economy won't stay this bad forever. Salaries won't stay down like they did last year and probably this year.

 

Here is a list of last year and the next four years payroll obligations by team. Sorry I don't know how to put this in a table, so some of you will have to think for yourselves. Maybe this can help you guys figure out your long-term team plans.

 

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 NY YANKEES $206,811,689 $166.307 $118.084 $99.634 $95.384

 

2 NY METS $139,102,235 $92.113 $86.738 $39.250 $26.500

 

3 CHICAGO CUBS $137,945,612 $119.958 $96.300 $54.000 $19.000

 

4 DETROIT $129,598,000 $84.588 $41.250 $31.000 $23.000

 

5 PHILADELPHIA $127,957,380 $96.286 $76.036 $27.286 $16.786

 

6 BOSTON $122,624,689 $76.183 $43.483 $30.833 $11.500

 

7 LA ANGELS $116,709,000 $59.950 $42.150 $29.700 $1.000

 

8 LA DODGERS $109,176,603 $60.933 $25.750 $1.250 $0.000

 

9 HOUSTON $105,035,000 $54.250 $37.000 $21.000 $0.000

 

10 SEATTLE $99,346,926 $44.125 $46.875 $22.250 $0.000

 

11 CHICAGO WHITE SOX $98,268,500 $45.075 $27.975 $10.250 $0.000

 

12 ATLANTA $97,692,834 $44.117 $32.392 $23.917 $15.500

 

13 SAINT LOUIS $93,612,500 $50.339 $44.189 $13.938 $0.000

 

14 SAN FRANCISCO $88,777,106 $51.100 $32.600 $32.600 $20.000

 

15 CLEVELAND $81,325,900 $49.955 $27.205 $13.500 $2.750

 

16 TORONTO $80,493,657 $81.168 $43.643 $36.643 $37.143

 

17 MILWAUKEE $80,280,861 $38.813 $7.038 $6.288 $8.788

 

18 BALTIMORE $77,169,792 $29.568 $21.468 $22.350 $25.350

 

19 TEXAS $76,239,840 $38.950 $22.200 $23.200 $16.500

 

20 KANSAS CITY $76,021,243 $49.100 $30.500 $13.750 $0.000

 

21 COLORADO $74,730,533 $40.558 $29.683 $5.100 $0.000

 

22 ARIZONA $72,475,000 $32.117 $23.700 $26.700 $12.750

 

23 CINCINNATI $71,858,500 $59.888 $28.313 $3.400 $0.000

 

24 MINNESOTA $67,899,267 $59.364 $33.100 $23.500 $15.000

 

25 TAMPA BAY $65,126,368 $39.183 $21.708 $11.430 $6.000

 

26 OAKLAND $61,896,066 $19.250 $3.500 $0.000 $0.000

 

27 WASHINGTON $61,455,049 $22.500 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000

 

28 PITTSBURGH $52,643,000 $22.975 $20.000 $3.950 $0.000

 

29 SAN DIEGO $42,746,653 $26.250 $16.000 $17.000 $4.000

 

30 FLORIDA $35,483,951 $7.950 $11.000 $15.000 $15.500

[example1]

Looks like the Red Sox are in good shape to me. $43.48m for 2011 tells me they have somewhere near $80m in salary that hasn't been spent yet. Some of that will be arbitration, but that's still alot for a club like this to be able to spend.

[Gom]

Looks like the Red Sox are in good shape to me. $43.48m for 2011 tells me they have somewhere near $80m in salary that hasn't been spent yet. Some of that will be arbitration' date=' but that's still alot for a club like this to be able to spend.[/quote']

 

Keep in mind as well, that the Yankees will drop $50 million next year. About $20 million will go to Jeter, so that will leave them with about $30 million to play with as well.

 

I'm not putting in aribtration raises...because frankly, I don't know them.

[Lester82]

looks like the Red Sox are in great shape.

[example1]

Keep in mind as well' date=' that the Yankees will drop $50 million next year. About $20 million will go to Jeter, so that will leave them with about $30 million to play with as well. [/quote']

 

A Yankees team that spends money wisely should be unbeatable. They can spend a shitload of money if it makes sense, and that money is more than justified by the player. The place they rightly took criticism was when they would spend stupidly. They are starting to do things differently, which will finally really show their financial might.

 

$30m of available funds for a team like the Yankees--already filled with established stars who can carry the team--should provide them the best supporting cast that money can buy. There's room for the Yankees to improve their bullpen and the bottom part of their rotation, so Halladay and Lackey both make a lot of sense. Lackey seems more obvious because he wouldn't require giving up any talent and will likely end up being a reliable, solid starter for most of his contract. Trading for and extending Halladay sets up a CC, Halladay, Burnett, trio that would be pretty intimidating moving forward. CC, Lackey and Burnett seems less intimidating.

[Lester82]

Actually, signing a 34 year old Roy Halladay to a mega free agent deal does sound like the old Yankees.

 

Beckett would be a (somewhat) younger sign for them. Felix would be the climax.

[a700hitter]

Rosenthal claims that inside the Red Sox FO there is the sentiment that the Sox cannot field a good young team until 2012. Rosenthal is usually full of baloney, but if he is right about this, I hope the accent is on "young" and not "good".

 

Privately, the Sox acknowledge that they cannot field a good young team again until 2012.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10363914/Plenty-of-tough-choices-ahead-for-Epstein,-BoSox

[yankees228]

If that is true, then it would seem unlikely that the Sox will make a big splash this offseason. Obviously, you can't take what Rosenthal says as gold.

[Dipre]

If that is true' date=' then it would seem unlikely that the Sox will make a big splash this offseason. Obviously, you can't take what Rosenthal says as gold.[/quote']

 

If Frodo Baggins said so, i expect a good young team to roll out next year.

[Dojji]

what's he smoking?

 

This is only remotely true if you assume he meant both conditionals, "good" and "young."

 

We have Reddick, Kalish, Bowden, Tazawa and Exposito all within a couple years fo the big leagues. They'll struggle a bit at first, much like Reddick did this year or Pedroia did in 2006, but any of those 5 players have the potential to be solid major leaguers by 2012. Throw in lesser lights like Wagner, Richardson, Bates, and Jimenez, any of which project to at least half decent bench fodder, and our pipeline is in no particular danger of stagnating. That, and Bard's debut season was a wild success, Ellsbury has established himself, Buchholz is working on it, and the old homegrown core (guys like Youks, Lester, and Delcarmen) are a large part of how the team is getting to the postseason.

 

And we even had enough youth to spare two really good young pitchers for the Victor Martinez swap.

 

Now compare that to the Yankees, for whom the only prospects they intro'd in the last 2 years that they have anything in particular riding on, are Brett Gardner and Phil Coke. Makes you wonder who really is gonna have more trouble fielding a "good young team" in the near future.

[Keeper]

Now compare that to the Yankees' date=' for whom the only prospects they intro'd in the last 2 years that they have anything in particular riding on, are Brett Gardner and Phil Coke.[/quote']

 

Also Robertson, Aceves, and Melancon.

[yankees228]

what's he smoking?

 

This is only remotely true if you assume he meant both conditionals, "good" and "young."

 

We have Reddick, Kalish, Bowden, Tazawa and Exposito all within a couple years fo the big leagues. They'll struggle a bit at first, much like Reddick did this year or Pedroia did in 2006, but any of those 5 players have the potential to be solid major leaguers by 2012. Throw in lesser lights like Wagner, Richardson, Bates, and Jimenez, any of which project to at least half decent bench fodder, and our pipeline is in no particular danger of stagnating. That, and Bard's debut season was a wild success, Ellsbury has established himself, Buchholz is working on it, and the old homegrown core (guys like Youks, Lester, and Delcarmen) are a large part of how the team is getting to the postseason.

 

And we even had enough youth to spare two really good young pitchers for the Victor Martinez swap.

 

Now compare that to the Yankees, for whom the only prospects they intro'd in the last 2 years that they have anything in particular riding on, are Brett Gardner and Phil Coke. Makes you wonder who really is gonna have more trouble fielding a "good young team" in the near future.

 

Wait a second. If you're going to mention all those guys for the Red Sox, and then compare it to the Yankees, how are you going to only cite guys who have intro'd in the last two years. Based on the guys you listed for the Red Sox, here are the Yankees that are relevant to the discussion...

 

Phil Hughes

Joba Chamberlain

David Robertson

Melky Cabrera

Jesus Montero

Austin Jackson

 

Dojji, the way you compared the two teams is one of the most biased posts I've seen on this site.

[example1]

what's he smoking?

 

This is only remotely true if you assume he meant both conditionals, "good" and "young."

 

We have Reddick, Kalish, Bowden, Tazawa and Exposito all within a couple years fo the big leagues.

 

This also misses the fact that both Ellsbury and Buchholz have yet to show what they are likely to become. In 2008 Ellsbury was an extremely valuable defensive player. In 2009 he was a valuable offensive player. He has the tools to be able to combine them to be one of the team's most valuable.

 

Buchholz has the ability to be this teams best pitcher, better than Lester or Beckett. I know that seems crazy to say, but I think it is entirely possible.

 

In a few years, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester and Buchholz will still be in their primes. I think there is LOTS of reason to be extremely optimistic about where they could be in 2-3 years time. That said, I think there's just as much reason to be optimistic about the current group. I think they are one good move away from being ready to win the WS again in 2010.

 

And we even had enough youth to spare two really good young pitchers for the Victor Martinez swap.

 

They were good talents, but they won't be missed in the slightest. People underestimate how good this farm system is. Wait until Renfroe, Wilson, Fuentes, Younginer, Volz, Jacobs, etc., enter discussions as potential trade pieces. They should be able to keep this up, year after year.

 

Now compare that to the Yankees, for whom the only prospects they intro'd in the last 2 years that they have anything in particular riding on, are Brett Gardner and Phil Coke. Makes you wonder who really is gonna have more trouble fielding a "good young team" in the near future.

 

The Yankees main strength is their ability to not care how much they pay for FAs. The Red Sox main strength is an excellent analysis and scouting department and an owner who is willing to pay well over slot to get high upside players.

 

They have been going after a whole lot of really athletic players the past few years, which seems odd only because the Sox were--for decades--seen as a classically unathletic team by definition. It will be interesting to see how this direction of player acquisition will play out in the future.

 

My guess is that they believe they have honed their ability to coach OBP and plate discipline and that now they hope to be able to coach that to players who have superior speed and athleticism. When/if that pays off it should be interesting to see; I imagine a future club that looks a lot more like the recent Angels and D-Rays teams than the 2004 Red Sox.