Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dipre]

Interest in Uggla ... at third base — 10:51 a.m.

 

The two teams showing the most interest in Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla would move him to third base.

 

The Giants and Orioles are the clubs in strongest pursuit of Uggla, according to major-league sources.

 

The Red Sox also have inquired, envisioning Uggla as a potential replacement for free agent Jason Bay in left field.

 

Uggla, 29, projects to earn approximately $8 million in arbitration. But in four major-league seasons, he has averaged 30 homers and 90 RBIs.

 

For the Giants, he would represent a more affordable addition than Bay or Matt Holliday. The Giants would play Uggla at third, Edgar Renteria at shortstop, Freddy Sanchez at second and Pablo Sandoval at first.

 

If Uggla went to the Orioles, he could replace free agent Melvin Mora at third base and also fill in at first base and DH.

 

The Orioles, awaiting the arrival of third-base prospect Josh Bell, do not want to block the position long-term. They also are concerned about Uggla's defense at third; their pitching is too weak for the team to give away outs. But the team would benefit from Uggla's right-handed power.

 

If the Marlins trade Uggla, they almost certainly will keep third baseman Jorge Cantu, who also is arbitration-eligible.

 

Cantu, 27, has driven in 195 runs the past two seasons and provides protection for shortstop Hanley Ramirez in the cleanup spot.

 

Emilio Bonifacio likely would replace Uggla at second, with top prospect Logan Morrison perhaps taking over at first.

 

Source:http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10353396/Wednesday%27s-buzz-from-the-G.M.-meetings

 

The Red Sox brass likes logic. They use it.

[TheKilo]

So you would rather they hamstring the payroll this year by adding Uggla to play 1st, sign Bay or Holliday while absorbing Lowell's contract to be on the bench or dumping him on another team.

 

I'm sorry, but i just don't see the offensive upgrade as enough to commit this type of financial butcher job.

 

What are you talking about? Lowell is on the team already, and I'd rather they NOT pay him if they can find an upgrade.

 

Uggla is an upgrade. Period.

[Dipre]

What are you talking about? Lowell is on the team already, and I'd rather they NOT pay him if they can find an upgrade.

 

Uggla is an upgrade. Period.

 

At 1B Kilo?

 

Lol upgrade.

[TheKilo]

He doesn't have to be an upgrade at 1B. He has to be better than Lowell. He is.

[Dipre]

Interest in Uggla ... at third base — 10:51 a.m.

 

The two teams showing the most interest in Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla would move him to third base.

 

The Giants and Orioles are the clubs in strongest pursuit of Uggla, according to major-league sources.

 

The Red Sox also have inquired, envisioning Uggla as a potential replacement for free agent Jason Bay in left field.

Uggla, 29, projects to earn approximately $8 million in arbitration. But in four major-league seasons, he has averaged 30 homers and 90 RBIs.

 

For the Giants, he would represent a more affordable addition than Bay or Matt Holliday. The Giants would play Uggla at third, Edgar Renteria at shortstop, Freddy Sanchez at second and Pablo Sandoval at first.

 

If Uggla went to the Orioles, he could replace free agent Melvin Mora at third base and also fill in at first base and DH.

 

The Orioles, awaiting the arrival of third-base prospect Josh Bell, do not want to block the position long-term. They also are concerned about Uggla's defense at third; their pitching is too weak for the team to give away outs. But the team would benefit from Uggla's right-handed power.

 

If the Marlins trade Uggla, they almost certainly will keep third baseman Jorge Cantu, who also is arbitration-eligible.

 

Cantu, 27, has driven in 195 runs the past two seasons and provides protection for shortstop Hanley Ramirez in the cleanup spot.

 

Emilio Bonifacio likely would replace Uggla at second, with top prospect Logan Morrison perhaps taking over at first.

[Dipre]

He doesn't have to be an upgrade at 1B. He has to be better than Lowell. He is.

 

Statue's 2009 OPS: .811

 

Uggla's 2009 OPS: .813.

 

Uggla's first base experience: 20 games.

 

Best upgrade ever.

[TheKilo]

How many games at 1B did Youkilis have before 2006?

 

Also, Dojji made a good argument about Uggla's counting stats, and how he could benefit from 81 games in Fenway instead of Miami.

[example1]

I don't see it. I admit his power potential is nice to see, but I haven't seen much indicating that he'd be a good LF or 3B.

 

Does this mean that the Sox are devaluing the defense necessary to hang in LF?

[TheKilo]

I don't see it. I admit his power potential is nice to see, but I haven't seen much indicating that he'd be a good LF or 3B.

 

Does this mean that the Sox are devaluing the defense necessary to hang in LF?

 

They haven't had a competent defensive LF since Troy O'Leary (he was actually pretty good if my memory of his defensive stats is correct)

[example1]

They haven't had a competent defensive LF since Troy O'Leary (he was actually pretty good if my memory of his defensive stats is correct)

 

Yet they were a mediocre defensive team and road team last year and I thought they were hoping to get better in both areas.

 

Since the Manny-era started, the OF has looked pretty mediocre in the cavernous ballparks where the ball can roll and roll. I would love to see them put a player out there who combines some defense with some power.

[Dipre]

They haven't had a competent defensive LF since Troy O'Leary (he was actually pretty good if my memory of his defensive stats is correct)

 

Youkilis and Uggla are completely different beasts.

 

Nice power potential, but not much else.

 

Also, Youk was a pretty good 3B moved to 1B, Uggla is horrible at 2nd because he has poor footwork and positioning, that tells you he might not be a very good 1B either.

 

And again, the argument i want you to make is how is Uggla enough of an upgrade to throw Lowell to the bench or dump him on another team.

 

Uggla in LF if we strike out on Bay and Holliday, i'm all for it., but he's a marginal upgrade at 1B.

 

 

Lol sorry i quoted the wrong post.

[TheKilo]

Youkilis and Uggla are completely different beasts.

 

Nice power potential, but not much else.

 

Also, Youk was a pretty good 3B moved to 1B, Uggla is horrible at 2nd because he has poor footwork and positioning, that tells you he might not be a very good 1B either.

 

And again, the argument i want you to make is how is Uggla enough of an upgrade to throw Lowell to the bench or dump him on another team.

 

Uggla in LF if we strike out on Bay and Holliday, i'm all for it., but he's a marginal upgrade at 1B.

 

.

 

Did you ignore the park factors argument? Fenway is a much better hitters park for RHH than the one in Miami is. Jacko made the point of his improving walk rates.

 

In a lesser offensive park, he had a higher OPS than Lowell, in more PA.

[Dipre]

Did you ignore the park factors argument? Fenway is a much better hitters park for RHH than the one in Miami is. Jacko made the point of his improving walk rates.

 

In a lesser offensive park, he had a higher OPS than Lowell, in more PA.

 

Yes, but IMO, quality of pitching can cancel that out.

 

Again, this is a non-factor.

 

The FO views him as a LF replacement and they do so for a reason. Everything else is fabrication.

[Keeper]

Not a big fan of Dan Uggla. And he would not be a good replacement for Bay, offensively or defensively.

 

Bay or Holliday in left field. Anything less is a compromise.

[Dojji]

Not a big fan of Dan Uggla. And he would not be a good replacement for Bay, offensively or defensively.

 

Bay or Holliday in left field. Anything less is a compromise.

 

No duh. If you can get either of Holliday or Bay it's a no-brainer.

 

We aren't the only ones looking to improve our lineup though. A whole lot of other teams could really use either of those guys. Things fall wrong, we could wind up with neither because of circumstances completely beyond our control though, so it doesn't hurt to look at contingencies.

[Dipre]

No duh. If you can get either of Holliday or Bay it's a no-brainer.

 

We aren't the only ones looking to improve our lineup though. A whole lot of other teams could really use either of those guys. Things fall wrong, we could wind up with neither because of circumstances completely beyond our control though, so it doesn't hurt to look at contingencies.

 

I agree with the Uggla for left field if we strike out on Bay and Holliday sentiment.

[Keeper]

Well, what I'm saying is it's not really a good contingency plan unless you get another big free agent to go along with Uggla. Because losing Bay and gaining Uggla does not make this team better.

[Dipre]

Well' date=' what I'm saying is it's not really a good contingency plan unless you get another big free agent to go along with Uggla. Because losing Bay and gaining Uggla does not make this team better.[/quote']

 

Well the way i see it, Theo got caught with his pants down last year, so exploring all possible options in case Bay and Holliday pull a Tex is the right thing to do.

[Dojji]

Well' date=' what I'm saying is it's not really a good contingency plan unless you get another big free agent to go along with Uggla. Because losing Bay and gaining Uggla does not make this team better.[/quote']

 

If we lose out on Bay and Holliday the nature of the game chances. At that point improvement would take a momumental effort and most of what we can do to our lineup amounts to different levels of damage control.

[Lester82]

this offeason will equal boring.

[Lester82]

coming off our world championship year, we signed Sean Casey. Last year, Brad Penny, Smoltz, Baldelli.

 

This offseason, more boring. I just feel it.

 

Hello - 2011?

[The_Destroyah]

I think Uggla is a good idea, just the name Uggla sounds like ugly, which equates to tuff and gritty to me, and thats all that really matters when theo is picking through the FA market lol.

 

in all seriousness though I don't think it would be a smart idea to accept Uggla as a consillation prize in the race for Holliday/Bay, unless of course we got an Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, or Prince Fielder.

[Lester82]

we will get no one this offseason. debbie downer.

 

Buster Olney said so.

[The_Destroyah]

Oh Buster Olney said so? whew! Thank God! I was getting worried there for a second, well hopefulley Buster decides which one we are getting soon so I can ask for their jersey for christmas lol.

[Lester82]

Ken Rosenthal said so too and a bunch of super important media

 

so there!

 

I can't wait to buy the official "no one" MLB jersey.

[Gom]

It's funny how some of you are giving up already.

[example1]

I've been working on this for a bit, here's where I go:

 

Example1's 2010 Offseason Assessment:

 

Contracted Players:

C- Martinez (Varitek)

1B- Youkilis (Kotchman)(Martinez)

2B- Pedroia

3B- Lowell (Youkilis)

CF- Ellsbury

RF- Drew

DH- Ortiz

 

BN: Hermida (OF)

BN: Varitek ©

BN: Lowrie (SS/3B/2B )

BN: Kotchman (1B )

 

SP: Lester

SP: Beckett

SP: Buchholz

SP: Matsuzaka

SP: Wakefield

 

RP: Ramirez

RP: Delcarmen

RP: Okajima

RP: Bard

RP: Papelbon

 

Needs: SS, LF, RP, RP

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where the Sox stand:

 

Offense: Red Sox 3rd in RS in 2009:

Yankees (915)

Angels (883)

Red Sox (872)

Phillies (820)

Twins (817)

Rockies (804)

Rays (803)

 

Pitching/Fielding: Red Sox 11th in RA in 2009: 3rd in the AL

Mariners (692)

White Sox (732)

Red Sox (723)

Rangers (740)

Tigers (745)

Yankees (753)

Rays (754)

 

Red Sox 3rd best X W-L in MLB:

Dodgers (99-63)

Yankees (95-67)

Red Sox (93-69)

Angels (92-70)

Phillies (92-70)

St. Louis (91-71)

Atlanta (91-71)

 

 

I think that offers a pretty good idea of where the team stands on the field. They played like an uninspired group at times last year, but overall they were a very good club. They weren't as good as the World Series teams, but that's a high standard to hold. This team accomplished a lot despite some minor injuries (Youkilis, Bay, Lowell, Lowrie, Wakefield, Beckett, Baldelli) significant slumps (Ortiz), s***** play (Varitek, SS position,) and under-preparation (Matsuzaka, Penny/Smoltz).

 

They have added what seems to be "MLB Ready" Clay Buchholz and a newly dedicated and embarassed Matsuzaka to the rotation that includes two excellent, World Series caliber pitchers already. At its finest, the Sox rotation is as good as any in baseball. They have also added Victor Martinez for an entire season, which I believe gets overlooked too often. He was a great acquisition for them.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------

Filling the Sox Openings:

 

Shortstop:

They will probably end up resigning Alex Gonzalez and splitting time between he and Lowrie. That would be the safe option. Obviously they will explore the waters for elite SS like Hanley or Reyes, but if that type of player isn't available I don't think they will do anything that would block Jose Iglesias.

 

Left Fielder:

 

I've made it clear that I prefer Matt Holliday. I prefer him because I think he's better to build around, but I don't think poorly of Jason Bay. I just like Holliday better. I would be surprised if they didn't offer him at least $18m/yr for 5 years. He's worth it. He's a player I wouldn't be surprised if they topped $20m for and landed and took a lot of criticism for. I think the nay-sayers would be proven wrong in a year or two.

 

 

Two Relief Pitchers:

 

Last year they had a great bullpen and it carried them through some tough times. I think they can keep that going without too much difficulty. Great for SPs, great for the playoffs, great overall.

 

*Offer Billy Wagner arbitration (which apparently he's open to discussing now). He may accept it (in which case you pay a bit more money to have an established LH closer) or he turns it down and signs elsewhere (in which case you may get compensation), or he turns it down and can't sign elsewhere and he can be signed for cheaper than arbitration.

 

*If they can't get Wagner they could also look at Mike Gonzalez, LH pitcher.

 

*They have some internal options too (Dustin Richardson maybe) who could be servicable.

 

---------------------------------------------------------

Other Moves to Make:

 

I think that this team is in really good shape long-term.

 

Prospects Available

The only prospects I would not move at this point in a deal are Iglesias (because a plus-defending Cuban SS is valuable), and probably Tazawa for political/franchise image reasons. I would only include Ryan Westmoreland for Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez (among those who might be available). I only hear good things about him and think he could be a superstar, which can take a franchise from very good to dynasty very quickly.

 

Trade for Roy Halladay

Make a really solid run at Roy Halladay without giving up the prospects listed above or Buchholz. I think it is possible with something like Kelly, Bowden, Stolmy, Anderson/Rizzo and Reddick/Kalish. That's a huge price to pay, but Halladay immediately makes this team considerably better and a beast in the playoffs. They may need to overspend to get past the Yankees, but the Yankees can have Lackey instead.

 

Getting Halladay probably also makes Buchholz expendable in another deal if something really great comes along (Felix, Gonzalez, Prince Fielder or Hanley, for instance). Otherwise their rotation would be unbelievable for 2010:

 

Halladay

Lester

Beckett

Buchholz

Matsuzaka

 

Get Aroldis Chapman

Another way for this team to add an impact player would be to be aggressive and sign Aroldis Chapman. They will end up paying him a fair amount to outbid the other teams, but it would be a move that generates buzz for the franchise, officially opens an international market of potential Red Sox fans, and would add a young, high-90's, lefthanded arm to a relatively young core. It sounds like the kind of thing Theo would be very interested in doing to pay off 2-3 years from now.

 

Combined with Iglesias it would give them two young Cuban stars for their primes and, if it works out, the $6-9m/yr he gets paid could be worth it in increased influence in baseball-crazy Cuba. Apparently (according to BP) he and Iglesias are friends--perhaps that would influence him.

 

Moves like that seem critical to allow this club to compete with the Yankees. International FAs are one place that the Yankees DON'T blow other teams out of the water. They pay very well, but they dont spend hundreds of millions. They had to swallow a bad deal like Julio Lugo, and I would say Chapman's upside is probably higher.

 

--------------------------------------------------

That's about it...

 

 

Overall Summary

 

*Sign Holliday or Bay.

*Fill the RP spots (preferably with Wagner as one option),

*Trade for Roy Halladay,

*Sign Aroldis Chapman.

 

It may sound fantasy baseball-ish, but it seems entirely reasonable. We know they are interested in Bay or Holliday. We know they are interested in Halladay. We know they have kicked the tires on Chapman. We know they don't want to just sign FAs to sign FAs. I don't see Lackey or Chone Figgins or many of the other players as very good options given this FO's track record.

 

A lot of money would come off the books in 2011 (including Halladay) and none of the above moves would handcuff them for the future.

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Holliday

Youkilis

Martinez

Ortiz

Lowell

Drew

Gonzalez

 

(specific order is debatable)

 

Halladay

Lester

Beckett

Buchholz

Matsuzaka

[Gom]

Easy on the crack pipe my friend.

 

You are saying the Red Sox should trade for the best pitcher on the planet and then presumably sign him to an extension, since trading him for the boatload of prospects it will take isn't worth a one year rental, then sign one of the top two hitting free agents for somewhere between 60 million or so for Bay or 100 million for Holliday and then probably another 40-50 million for Chapman.

 

Meanwhile expect the Yankees who are shaving about 40 million in expiring contracts to do nothing.

[example1]

Easy on the crack pipe my friend.

 

You are saying the Red Sox should trade for the best pitcher on the planet and then presumably sign him to an extension, since trading him for the boatload of prospects it will take isn't worth a one year rental, then sign one of the top two hitting free agents for somewhere between 60 million or so for Bay or 100 million for Holliday and then probably another 40-50 million for Chapman.

 

You're saying they couldn't sign Halladay and Bay or Holliday in the same season? As if I'm on crack to suggest it?

 

Those two seem like really, really obvious choices. I thought signing Chapman was the stretch. They could pay Halladay with the money they don't use on Ortiz and Lowell, and could pay Holliday with less than the money they offered Teixeira. Both are entirely reasonable.

 

Plus I never mentioned resigning Halladay. I use him to make a run at 2010 and then either resign one of he or Beckett, or get a bunch of draft picks when they both leave and spend their salaries elsewhere. It seems like a cheaper way to compete with a 200m+ team.

 

Again, it seems entirely reasonable. Thanks for your opinion though. :thumbsup:

 

EDIT:

Meanwhile expect the Yankees who are shaving about 40 million in expiring contracts to do nothing

 

This wasn't a post about the Yankees. I suspect they could sign Lackey or Figgins or trade for Granderson. Those all seem likely.

 

You call Halladay the best pitcher on the planet, but I would contend the Yankees already have a good frontline starter in CC.

[yankees228]

Easy on the crack pipe my friend.

 

You are saying the Red Sox should trade for the best pitcher on the planet and then presumably sign him to an extension, since trading him for the boatload of prospects it will take isn't worth a one year rental, then sign one of the top two hitting free agents for somewhere between 60 million or so for Bay or 100 million for Holliday and then probably another 40-50 million for Chapman.

 

Meanwhile expect the Yankees who are shaving about 40 million in expiring contracts to do nothing.

 

Gom, there's a very good chance that the Red Sox could reasonably have that type of offseason. They can certainly sign Holliday/Bay and Chapman. There's not a doubt in my mind that that is possible. They can also trade for Halladay. Judging by the Yankees recent track record (Santana) I don't think they're going to be willing to part with the necessary prospects to be a legitimate factor in the Halladay sweepstakes. I do hope I'm wrong though.

 

At the same time, the Yankees could bring back some of the players whose contracts have expired (Damon, Matsui, Pettitte, and Nady), and they could sign Lackey. All of those things can definitely happen in the same offseason.

 

There is one area of contention that I have with E1. I admit that I don't know enough about the Red Sox farm system to make a fair assessment, but I would be a bit surprised if the Blue Jays traded him to the Red Sox (especially considering it's in the division) without demanding Buchholz. Granted, E1, you know much more about these guys than I do, but I just think the Blue Jays would be hesitant to deal him within the division if they weren't blown away.

 

Regardless, nice work.