Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[example1]

I will tell you this, unless Theo changes his tune, Gonzalez is not coming to Boston.

 

This is probably true, though you and I have no idea what the actual negotiations are. I doubt Theo has any interest in parting with Buchholz, Kelly, or Westmoreland. He should be confident that the team has many capable pieces that will be attractive--especially to the guys who were patting themselves on the back after the 05-09 drafts (McLeod and Hoyer

 

McLeod knows these prospects as well as anyone, he drafted them:

http://news.soxprospects.com/2009/08/q-with-jason-mcleod.html

 

 

Do the sox pull a Yankee and open the wallets all the way? Or do they pack it in and go to war with the team that they have? The current sox team cannot hold a candle to the yankee squad in the regular season, but they should make the playoffs

 

The Yankees have a great team, there's no doubt about that.

 

I don't think it is in the Sox best interest to break the bank on Jason Bay. Bay probably isn't interested in signing at the price they're willing to pay him to be a LF and then take up 3-4 years hogging up the DH position a la 2009/2010 Mike Lowell. I think Bay is a better hitter than Lowell, but this FO really doesn't like to lack flexibility, either financial or positional, if they can help it. At least with Matt Holliday they can be reasonably assured that he can manage LF for a good portion of the contract.

 

I'll be pleasantly surprised if they end up with either of them, at this point. I think getting Matt Holliday for a reasonable deal when the market seems quiet would be a good move, but I'm not sure how much that would cost. Likewise if Bay is really not interested in going anywhere that wants him (specifically NYM) then maybe he comes back to the Sox at a reasonable Ortiz-like deal. It's not my money so the luxary tax hit and lack of future payroll flexability doesn't mean as much to me as it probably does them.

 

Signing Bay all-but assures the notion that Ortiz will be leaving town after 2010 and Bay is waiting to take his place; it could also portend an Ellsbury move. Clubhouse anxiety isn't a great thing on a team that is already playoff-good. They can't sign too many replacements for the expiring contracts without it causing some trouble, and they were quick to try to reassure Beckett after the Lackey signing.

[Lester82]

I guess Jacko had to move on to attacking the Red Sox offense as to why the Sox will have the floor wiped with them, since earlier in the offseason, he kept harping on how the Red Sox didn't have three reliable starters and "do you guys realize that you need 3 reliable ones to win a WS". John Lackey has now been added to a tough Red Sox rotation.

 

Jacko, you are getting ahead of yourself if you think the Red Sox 'won't hold a candle' to the Yankees in the regular season with three ace starting pitchers, a good 'pen, and still having Ellsbury/Pedroia, Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis in the 1-2-3-4 spots plus Drew. They simply won't suck enough on offense to make the divisional race as smooth as you'll think.

[Dipre]

I guess Jacko had to move on to attacking the Red Sox offense as to why the Sox will have the floor wiped with them' date=' since earlier in the offseason, he kept harping on how the Red Sox didn't have three reliable starters and "do you guys realize that you need 3 reliable ones to win a WS". John Lackey has now been added to a tough Red Sox rotation.[/quote']

 

He was still talking about how the Yankee rotation was "deeper and more effective". But taking into consideration that the Sox' 6th starter (Wakefield) has been more "effective" in the AL than Javier Vasquez, that rumor was shot down pretty quickly.

[riverside sluggers]

Will you be yawning when the yankees run away with the division? The current sox offense took a MASSIVE hit with the loss of Bay. They made a major upgrade in the rotation as well. For the regular season' date=' its a wash. And the Yankees were much better than the sox were in 2009 AND they got better.[/quote']

 

Take away starts being given to John Smoltz/Brad Penny/Paul Byrd, an actual full season from Dice-K, and a little addition of Lackey is going a long way

 

John Smoltz/Brad Penny/Paul Byrd: 38 starts (10-16, 6.18 ERA)

205.2 innings, 266 Hits, 148 Runs (141 ER), 29 HRs, 62 Walks, 133 Ks

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre, that was with the caveat that the sox were resigning Bay. Also, saying that Wake is better than Vazquez is retarded. Sorry, but it is. You have sauid before that ERA is not a good way to evaluate a pitcher, and I agree with you. But then you use ERA to support your case. Kinda hypocritical. Regardless, we need this season to start so the proof can be rammed down your throat.

[Dipre]

Dipre' date=' that was with the caveat that the sox were resigning Bay. Also, saying that Wake is better than Vazquez is retarded. Sorry, but it is. You have sauid before that ERA is not a good way to evaluate a pitcher, and I agree with you. But then you use ERA to support your case. Kinda hypocritical. Regardless, we need this season to start so the proof can be rammed down your throat.[/quote']

 

He's been the better pitcher in the AL. Sorry, but it;s the truth.

 

With a pitcher as unconventional as Wakefield you take the results as proof. There's simply no other way to evaluate him.What's retarded is you thinking the Yankees have a better rotation. Stop the bias.

[SoxSport]

All this talk about who's better. You mean on paper? I think the Yankees are better. They better be. After all they spend much more. That's their goal. Who ultimately wins will depend on injuries.

 

The Yankees' approach now is to maximize their spending advantage--not to try to compete at the farm system level. That means not only signing the top FAs, but trading for salary dumps other teams want to unload and will take less in return. When you get a player and give up less, you improve. That's what happened with Granderson and Vasquez. Not "steals", as the media reported, but simple salary dumps teams wanted to unload where the Yankees effectively "agreed" to add salary in return for giving up less. They added about $8 mil for Vasquez and about the same for Granderson, whose contract balloons after next year. The teams they traded with, the Braves and Tigers, of course, saved that much to do other things.

 

Cashman made some very clever deals here--improving his team by taking on salary. Contrast that to Epstein, who is forever trying to deal for young, low salaried stars like AdGon or HRam. The only way you can get those types is to OVERPAY in talent, so the net effect is to weaken your team in the long run.

 

Theo probably realizes this, which is why there is renewed interest in Bay. Bay could be the logical route to making a deal for AdGon involving Ellsbury which doesn't weaken the team--since they now have Cameron near term for CF and replacements longer term. I think Ellsbury's agent Boras is also a factor. I doubt the Red Sox will re-sign Ellsbury, since Boras will push him into the FA market--like he will Pap. Say goodbye to both. I think Pap will be traded, too, perhaps by July.

[Dipre]

All this talk about who's better. You mean on paper? I think the Yankees are better. They better be. After all they spend much more. That's their goal. Who ultimately wins will depend on injuries.

 

The Yankees' approach now is to maximize their spending advantage--not to try to compete at the farm system level. That means not only signing the top FAs, but trading for salary dumps other teams want to unload and will take less in return. When you get a player and give up less, you improve. That's what happened with Granderson and Vasquez. Not "steals", as the media reported, but simple salary dumps teams wanted to unload where the Yankees effectively "agreed" to add salary in return for giving up less. They added about $8 mil for Vasquez and about the same for Granderson, whose contract balloons after next year. The teams they traded with, the Braves and Tigers, of course, saved that much to do other things.

 

Cashman made some very clever deals here--improving his team by taking on salary. Contrast that to Epstein, who is forever trying to deal for young, low salaried stars like AdGon or HRam. The only way you can get those types is to OVERPAY in talent, so the net effect is to weaken your team in the long run.

 

Theo probably realizes this, which is why there is renewed interest in Bay. Bay could be the logical route to making a deal for AdGon involving Ellsbury which doesn't weaken the team--since they now have Cameron near term for CF and replacements longer term. I think Ellsbury's agent Boras is also a factor. I doubt the Red Sox will re-sign Ellsbury, since Boras will push him into the FA market--like he will Pap. Say goodbye to both. I think Pap will be traded, too, perhaps by July.

 

1) We're talking about pitching. The Yankees do not have better pitching, even though they are the better team overall.

 

2) The Yankees have been working on player development every bit as hard as they've been working on maximizing their financial advantage. To state otherwise would be lying.

 

3) Javier Vasquez is not a salary dump. In salary dumps you don't get significant talent in return and the Braves did. It's another issue altogether if you don't have the knowledge about the players the Yanks gave up, because Melky may be a fringe starter, but Dunn and Vizcaino have the potential to be impact arms, and that's a nice haul for a starter with one year left on his contract who had a fluky season last year.

 

4) The Red Sox have two years left of Papelbon, meaning he's still under their control for 2011. Why would they trade him? And, being as expensive as he is, who would take on him awarding the Sox the significant return they would probably demand? That makes no sense.

[riverside sluggers]

Theo probably realizes this' date=' which is why there is renewed interest in Bay. Bay could be the logical route to making a deal for AdGon involving Ellsbury which doesn't weaken the team--since they now have Cameron near term for CF and replacements longer term. I think Ellsbury's agent Boras is also a factor. I doubt the Red Sox will re-sign Ellsbury,[b'] since Boras will push him into the FA market--like he will Pap.[/b] Say goodbye to both. I think Pap will be traded, too, perhaps by July.

 

Why would they trade Papelbon by July if theyre gunning for a playoff spot??

 

And Papelbon is not a Boras client... well yet anyway

[JimEdHOF2009]

Theo probably realizes this, which is why there is renewed interest in Bay. Bay could be the logical route to making a deal for AdGon involving Ellsbury which doesn't weaken the team--since they now have Cameron near term for CF and replacements longer term. I think Ellsbury's agent Boras is also a factor. I doubt the Red Sox will re-sign Ellsbury, since Boras will push him into the FA market--like he will Pap. Say goodbye to both. I think Pap will be traded, too, perhaps by July.

 

 

I think there is a less than ZERO chance Papelbon is traded in the middle of a World Series run.. The Red Sox will win AT LEAST the Wild Card as the rest of the AL stinks outside of the East and TOR and TB have taken steps backwards... SEA is much improved but still lacks pitching depth behind their silly 1/2 of King and Lee... I think SEA will win the division and the Angels will digress severely turning into a barely over .500 team... The idea of the Sox trading their closer is preposterous even if he does walk.. Let him walk...he will most likely walk away a World Series Champion..again... and we get two sandwich #1's for him when he signs with someone else... Then we have Bard begin 2011 as the Red Sox closer. I think it works out rather nicely.

[jacksonianmarch]

Theo would trade Papelbon without even batting an eyelash if he has a viable in house candidate ready for the big time right now. He doesnt. He has a few guys who are close, in Bard and Ramirez. But neither are ready to close on a playoff team right now. Theo is very much in tune with Billy Beane. And Beane has always traded closers since his theory is that a good middle reliever and a good closer are not all that different in terms of talent, but are worth way more in terms of cost. If Bard comes out this yr and puts up a 1.1WHIP, sub 3ERA and a K per inning over a 65-70IP season, then Papelbon is gone for 2011.

[example1]

Theo would trade Papelbon without even batting an eyelash if he has a viable in house candidate ready for the big time right now. He doesnt. He has a few guys who are close' date=' in Bard and Ramirez. But neither are ready to close on a playoff team right now. Theo is very much in tune with Billy Beane. And Beane has always traded closers since his theory is that a good middle reliever and a good closer are not all that different in terms of talent, but are worth way more in terms of cost. If Bard comes out this yr and puts up a 1.1WHIP, sub 3ERA and a K per inning over a 65-70IP season, then Papelbon is gone for 2011.[/quote']

 

Given how Papelbon has looked the last few years and his unwillingness to look at a longer contract, I imagine Theo would move him now if the right deal came along. You're largely right about the Billy Beane thing, as Saves drive up the price without really impacting the quality of the pitcher.

 

I don't think Theo holding onto Papelbon is as much about a lack of replacement as it is about wanting a deep bullpen and not having any strong offers for a closer who is nearing the end of his contract and who wants to be a FA.

 

To me, Papelbon has looked much more hittable and vulnerable the past few years, digging himself into holes by walking guys and having to battle back out of those holes. He totally stopped throwing the splitter (either due to franchise request or wanting to save his arm) but in either case he doesn't appear to have his whole aresnal available to him.

[Dojji]

In fairness he's still one of the most effective relievers in baseball, and it would be impossible to be as ridiculously unhittable as he was in 2006-2007 for a whole career after hitters had seen you a few times.

 

We're talking about a reliever with a career 1.85 ERA who played exactly to that average last year for pity's sake. If that's unsatisfactory it's probably time to adjust expectations. Most pitchers would kill for a "down" year like Papelbon's 2009

[Keeper]

To me' date=' Papelbon has looked much more hittable and vulnerable the past few years, digging himself into holes by walking guys and having to battle back out of those holes. He totally stopped throwing the splitter (either due to franchise request or wanting to save his arm) but in either case he doesn't appear to have his whole aresnal available to him.[/quote']

 

He has been more hittable, as he gave up 5.3 and 4.6 H/9 in '06 and '07. Those numbers are sick but not really sustainable. In '08 and '09 he held hitters to 7.5 and 7.1 H/9. Not nearly as dominant as he was before, but still very good. Papelbon's biggest issue last season was the walks. He got himself into a lot of jams and usually got out of them. But tripling your walk total from the year before is generally not a recipe for success.

 

Still, there's no question he's an elite closer. Before moving him, you'd have to be pretty damn sure that Bard is the real deal. Is anyone that sure that Bard can fill his shoes?

[Dojji]

But tripling your walk total from the year before is generally not a recipe for success.

 

He'd walked 8 hitters all year the previous season. His bb/9 was still a quite reasonable 3.3 Only 16 more walks all year. This is an exaggerated issue IMHO.

 

His last 3 years of walks were 15-8-24.

[Dojji]

But tripling your walk total from the year before is generally not a recipe for success.

 

He'd walked 8 hitters all year the previous season. His bb/9 was still a quite reasonable 3.3 Only 16 more walks all year.

 

His last 3 years of walks were 15-8-24. It's a career high sure, but a career high for a guy with legendary control, I don't see the issue here.

[Keeper]

I agree that 3.3 BB/9 isn't the end of the world, but it's by far his highest walk total since his rookie year in '05. Could be a cause for concern.

[Dojji]

But only if you're comparing Papelbon only to Papelbon. Compare him to just about any other reliever and he's just fine -- he even compares well enough to Mo.

[SoxSport]

Funny I was under the impression Pap was a Boras client, or client-to-be. Where did I read that? He is aiming for free agency, taking one year contracts. Maybe July is a bit early for trading him--depends on how he is doing and how Bard is progressing--I think the chances are they will deal him when the timing is right to some team that will pay big bucks to a closer. And they're aren't many such teams out there. Look at Valverde.

 

Another factor is that Pap was not that dominating a pitcher last year, particularly in the playoffs. Unless he bounces back, mixes his pitches and throws the splitter more, he won't command a high premium in the FA market. And he will feel some heat from Bard as Bard progresses.

[diony]

Dipre' date=' that was with the caveat that the sox were resigning Bay. Also, saying that Wake is better than Vazquez is retarded. Sorry, but it is. You have sauid before that ERA is not a good way to evaluate a pitcher, and I agree with you. But then you use [b']ERA[/b] to support your case. Kinda hypocritical. Regardless, we need this season to start so the proof can be rammed down your throat.

 

He has been using xFIP on many threads lately. Not this time. Because it doesn't suits his argument.

[Dipre]

He has been using xFIP on many threads lately. Not this time. Oh wait' date=' is because it doesn't suits his argument. [/quote']

 

Well if you read (you don't) you'd have noticed that Jacko himself admitted that a pitcher as unpredictable Wakefield cannot be measured by typical standards.

 

Nice attempt, trollus maximus.

[Dojji]

Another factor is that Pap was not that dominating a pitcher last year, particularly in the playoffs.

 

That is pure nonsense. He got a grand total of one appearance in the playoffs, not enough to determine if he was dominant or not, and he played to his astoundingly excellent career averages last year anyway.

 

The standard of perfection you're holding Papelbon to is re-freaking-diculous.

[diony]

Well if you read (you don't) you'd have noticed that Jacko himself admitted that a pitcher as unpredictable Wakefield cannot be measured by typical standards.

 

Nice attempt, trollus maximus.

 

I'm not trolling. Come on, post their FIPs, xFIPs and tRAs. Or at least go check them and prove yourself wrong.

[Dipre]

That is pure nonsense. He got a grand total of one appearance in the playoffs, not enough to determine if he was dominant or not, and he played to his astoundingly excellent career averages last year anyway.

 

The standard of perfection you're holding Papelbon to is re-freaking-diculous.

 

Agreed.

 

In fact, last year, Papelbon was much more dominant than he should have been, seeing as how he basically removed his out pitch from his arsenal.

[Dipre]

I'm not trolling. Come on' date=' post their FIPs, xFIPs and tRAs. Or at least go check them and prove yourself wrong.[/quote']

 

I've checked them, mister troll. The common agreement here is that trying to measure a knuckleballer by any sort of advanced measurement is an exercise in futility. I wouldn't be surprised if bias and trolling blocked your thought process to the point where you simply can't understand this, but don't worry, if Jacko could, so can you.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well if you read (you don't) you'd have noticed that Jacko himself admitted that a pitcher as unpredictable Wakefield cannot be measured by typical standards.

 

Nice attempt, trollus maximus.

 

Right, but standard metrics work too. Like strikeouts and innings pitched, etc. Wakefield has his own metric, but he is nowhere near as important or as useful as Vazquez is at this time.

[Dipre]

Right' date=' but standard metrics work too. Like strikeouts and innings pitched, etc. Wakefield has his own metric, but he is nowhere near as important or as useful as Vazquez is at this time.[/quote']

 

No.

 

He's the Sox' 6th starter for a reason, so i will agree with your point on usefulness, but the point wasn't about "usefulness" it was about "Success in the AL" and even though Vasquez will be more useful next year (specially to the Yanks) the point stands.

 

Oh, and K's really aren't a good measure either. IP and walks are a whole other deal though.

[diony]

I've checked them' date=' mister troll. The common agreement here is that [b']trying to measure a knuckleballer by any sort of advanced measurement is an exercise in futility.[/b] I wouldn't be surprised if bias and trolling blocked your thought process to the point where you simply can't understand this, but don't worry, if Jacko could, so can you.

 

Oh ok. That totally proves he's better than Javier Vasquez. Thanks.

[Dipre]

Oh ok. That totally proves he's better than Javier Vasquez. Thanks.

 

As usual, Mr. Strawman cops out in legendary fashion. Nice try.

[jacksonianmarch]

No.

 

He's the Sox' 6th starter for a reason, so i will agree with your point on usefulness, but the point wasn't about "usefulness" it was about "Success in the AL" and even though Vasquez will be more useful next year (specially to the Yanks) the point stands.

 

Oh, and K's really aren't a good measure either. IP and walks are a whole other deal though.

 

 

But your point is comparing a player well past his prime and someone who is right in the thick of his prime. I could say that Andy Pettitte has a better AL track record than Lackey, but I wont since Pettitte is 37 yrs old and Lackey is still in his prime.