Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dipre]

Gonzalez has had one great season' date=' dont go spoogin in your shorts just yet.[/i'] Tex has been great for years. Just because AGon's great 2009 may have surpassed Tex's doesnt mean he's the better player

 

I'm not saying he's better than Tex, but please don't overlook the stats in favor of your arguments.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's had 1 .900+ OPS season. Those are truly great seasons. He's had a bunch of very good ones, but 2009 was his first great season

[Dipre]

He's had 1 .900+ OPS season. Those are truly great seasons. He's had a bunch of very good ones' date=' but 2009 was his first great season[/quote']

 

OPS+.

 

Using OPS by itself when evaluating a hitter that plays at Petco is like using Wins to evaluate a pitcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

Meh, I think it has its utility, but it is a bit skewed IMO. Especially in Gonzalez' case. It over-values players playing in major pitching parks and undershoots for players playing in hitters parks IMO. Plus, its all relative to the park you'd move him to.

[Dipre]

Meh' date=' I think it has its utility, but it is a bit skewed IMO. Especially in Gonzalez' case. It over-values players playing in major pitching parks and undershoots for players playing in hitters parks IMO. Plus, its all relative to the park you'd move him to.[/quote']

 

If anything OPS+ undervalues park impact.

 

Last year Gonzales had a 139 OPS+, but he had a .788 OPS at home and a .947 OPS on the road.

 

No matter what park you move him to besides Petco, there's no way that beast puts up less than an .800 OPS at home, specially if you put something besides suck in front of and behind him.

[jacksonianmarch]

but you also run the risk of him dropping in OPS on the road next yr too.

[Dipre]

but you also run the risk of him dropping in OPS on the road next yr too.

 

Of course he'll regress on the road. But the home-stat improvement should beyond a shadow of a doubt be much bigger than the road regression. Petco is quite simply the most extreme pitcher's park in the Majors.

[The_Destroyah]

If you put AGon in NY or Boston he will be a top 3 hitter easily, I promise.

put him in Colorado and he'll have a hard time not being the best.

[Rodney Harrison]

Pujols isn't a FA 'till '12. By that time' date=' the Dodgers will probably be on an all-out spending spree again.[/quote']

 

The only way this happens is if MLB forces the McCourts to sell the team. The legal issues are starting to pile up and it looks to be a nasty divorce.

[Dipre]

The only way this happens is if MLB forces the McCourts to sell the team. The legal issues are starting to pile up and it looks to be a nasty divorce.

 

That's exactly what i think will happen. I've read speculation about it in a couple articles now.

[riverside sluggers]

What have the Dodgers done so far this offseason? All Ive heard about is them getting Jamey Carroll

[Dojji]

The Dodgers have a good core of youth, solid prospect depth and no obvious holes, I'd be surprised if they did that much. We'd be doing much the same if we were in any other division.

 

The most you'll see them do is maybe trade for a better second baseman. Or maybe go after Felipe Lopez.

[JimEdHOF2009]

Of course he'll regress on the road. But the home-stat improvement should beyond a shadow of a doubt be much bigger than the road regression. Petco is quite simply the most extreme pitcher's park in the Majors.

 

Sure he may regress on the road...but get this...he will play 81 regular season games at the Fens. Gonza goes the other way quite frequently...with authority. His long, 390 feet flyouts in cavernous PETCO will become souvenirs for Cask and Flagon patrons. His 315-379 ft. flyouts will become doubles.... He will hit over .300 with a +.400 OBP.. I would say his OPS would finish around 1.089. This is all rough estimates judging from his hit displacement chart and the adjusted PF's.. I think we can all agree... Adrian Gonzalez in a Red Sox uniform would make an already very good Red Sox team...much better.

 

As an aside.. Dipre...(using my best Hannibal the Cannibal Voice)...."Love the Avatar"..

[riverside sluggers]

Gonzalez has had one great season' date=' dont go spoogin in your shorts just yet. Tex has been great for years. Just because AGon's great 2009 may have surpassed Tex's doesnt mean he's the better player[/quote']

 

These are from his first 4 seasons in San Diego, when he actually got chance for playing time

 

2006- 24 HRs, 82 RBIs

2007- 30 HRs, 100 RBIs

2008- 36 HRs, 119 RBIs

2009- 40 HRs, 99 RBIs

 

Id say he would be a force to reckon with in Boston

[The_Destroyah]

Id love to see AGon's Spray chart but I don't even know where to look for one.

[Paradisecity]

Somebody put one up here already. It looks purrty.

[JimEdHOF2009]

Id love to see AGon's Spray chart but I don't even know where to look for one.

 

I am looking for it now.. I saw it originally over at SOSH and could not find it when I went back to copy it! I will get it up here.

[Paradisecity]

Check out this page in the A-Gon thread:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/13617-unofficial-adrian-gonzalez-thread-6.html

[JimEdHOF2009]

Sweet^^^^ Thanks.. I am actually soliciting some more charts and info from SOSH's insomniac, statistical, guru.

[CoachC.]

According to data supplied by Inside Edge, a scouting service that charts such information, Gonzalez hit 21 home runs to left field this past season, easily the most among left-handed hitters. (Joe Mauer was next with 16, but that's a conversation for next offseason.)

 

Amazingly, 16 of Gonzalez's 21 opposite-field bombs came on the road. That's as many as the next two lefties combined.

 

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he became just the third player in MLB history to hit 40 or more home runs with 12 or fewer coming at home, joining Jason Giambi (2003) and Jeff Bagwell (1999). Just imagine what Gonzalez could do while playing in a favorable home ballpark. The sky's the limit. Or maybe the Mass Pike is.

 

"Gonzalez's home run total would not be strongly affected by a move to Boston," Rybarczyk said. "The main difference in his production would be an increase in doubles. Virtually all of the home runs that the Green Monster takes away turn into doubles, and the shorter distance to the left-field wall in Boston will also turn some routine fly balls into wall-scraping doubles."

 

Indeed, the key statistic to consider at Fenway Park is doubles.

 

This past season, 374 doubles were hit at Fenway. That was 39 more than at the next park (Arizona's Chase Field) and a stunning 160 more than at Petco. In six of the past seven seasons, more doubles occurred in Fenway Park than in any other venue.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/news/story?id=4673277

 

Kudos to Dipre for this chart.

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/508042-post212.html

[Emmz]

Not that we haven't gone over it before, but it really does testify even more to the theory that Gonzalez was severely limited by Petco Park. I'd love to see him play at NYS. All I can say is that there would be bombs.

[SoxSport]

Changing leagues is always an issue for hitters and pitchers. The impact is unpredictable. Maybe because the main effect is how the pitching affects the hitter, and vice versa for a pitcher. Halladay, for example, should be better in the NL, and AdGon should be worse in the AL. I wonder if the park would make as much difference. AdGon will probably lose a few HRs to LF in Fenway with the high wall, so the net affect might be small. A bigger affect is the right field porch in Yankee stadium for a LHd pull hitter--no high wall there. That's why Granderson fits.

 

I see that Ellsbury has been elevated to star status in some CF ratings. That could be enough to persuade Hoyer to swap AdGon for Ellsbury and a package. That assumes they work out some sort of deal with Bay. I don't see the Red Sox standing pat with the status quo. Not with their new pitching advantage negated by the Vasquez salary dump (which cost the Yankees an extra $8 mil--by the way--and saved the Braves the same). You can't stand pat with the Yankees.

[riverside sluggers]

Gonzalez would do worse in the AL because of the green monster??

[Emmz]

Changing leagues is always an issue for hitters and pitchers. The impact is unpredictable. Maybe because the main effect is how the pitching affects the hitter, and vice versa for a pitcher. Halladay, for example, should be better in the NL, and AdGon should be worse in the AL. I wonder if the park would make as much difference. AdGon will probably lose a few HRs to LF in Fenway with the high wall, so the net affect might be small. A bigger affect is the right field porch in Yankee stadium for a LHd pull hitter--no high wall there. That's why Granderson fits.

 

I see that Ellsbury has been elevated to star status in some CF ratings. That could be enough to persuade Hoyer to swap AdGon for Ellsbury and a package. That assumes they work out some sort of deal with Bay. I don't see the Red Sox standing pat with the status quo. Not with their new pitching advantage negated by the Vasquez salary dump (which cost the Yankees an extra $8 mil--by the way--and saved the Braves the same). You can't stand pat with the Yankees.

 

The park has been shown to be a haven for power hitters, and he's a monster at hitting opposite-field homers. He'll gain home runs in the trade, and overall production, you could guarantee that almost. Going from Petco, AT&T, and Dodger to Camden, New Yankee and Fenway is going to make a massive difference.

[jacksonianmarch]

Regardless, the park sucks, we all know this. But the change in division and the change in pitching is going to be just as important.

 

I will tell you this, unless Theo changes his tune, Gonzalez is not coming to Boston. The funny thing is, the sox are right up against the $170 million mark, and they have the chance to get a player similar in age and better in production in Holliday for nothing but a 3rd round draft pick and cash. Do the sox pull a Yankee and open the wallets all the way? Or do they pack it in and go to war with the team that they have? The current sox team cannot hold a candle to the yankee squad in the regular season, but they should make the playoffs

[Dipre]

Regardless, the park sucks, we all know this. But the change in division and the change in pitching is going to be just as important.

 

I will tell you this, unless Theo changes his tune, Gonzalez is not coming to Boston. The funny thing is, the sox are right up against the $170 million mark, and they have the chance to get a player similar in age and better in production in Holliday for nothing but a 3rd round draft pick and cash. Do the sox pull a Yankee and open the wallets all the way? Or do they pack it in and go to war with the team that they have? The current sox team cannot hold a candle to the yankee squad in the regular season, but they should make the playoffs

 

*Yawn*

[jacksonianmarch]

Will you be yawning when the yankees run away with the division? The current sox offense took a MASSIVE hit with the loss of Bay. They made a major upgrade in the rotation as well. For the regular season, its a wash. And the Yankees were much better than the sox were in 2009 AND they got better.

[Dipre]

Will you be yawning when the yankees run away with the division? The current sox offense took a MASSIVE hit with the loss of Bay. They made a major upgrade in the rotation as well. For the regular season' date=' its a wash. And the Yankees were much better than the sox were in 2009 AND they got better.[/quote']

 

The current Yankee OF doesn't even have a LF.

 

As currently constructed, the Sox have better pitching and better defense. But how about waiting until the rosters are finished before you start pounding your chest there, buddy?

[Lester82]

he'd pound his chest if Howard Stern were playing left field.

[Lester82]

how much of the postgame food will this guy cut into?

http://misterirrelevant.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/johnson_nick.jpg