Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dipre]

Not completely. Point was that Theo hasn't budged on a Buchholz deal yet and given his run to end the season it seems completely improbable.

 

I think anyone can be moved in the right deal.

 

Even Kelly, who's been deemed "Untouchable" could probably be moved if the right player came along.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not sure why Kelly is untouchable and Buchholz isnt. Regardless, one of the two or even both would be needed to get Gonzalez

[Dipre]

Not sure why Kelly is untouchable and Buchholz isnt. Regardless' date=' one of the two or even both would be needed to get Gonzalez[/quote']

 

Ask Theo. I don't see the sense in it either. There has to be something pretty special about that kid.

[BSN07]

Ask Theo. I don't see the sense in it either. There has to be something pretty special about that kid.

 

That and I have to think it would hurt in some manner towards the negotiations with future draft picks. It at least has to be taken in to account.

 

Either that or he's just making Hoyer think he is untouchable and when Theo agrees to put him in a package with a couple other prospects, Hoyer will believe he is getting a steal or something. :dunno: Just a thought.

 

Right now I think a Kelly/Reddick/Rizzo(Anderson)+1 gets a deal done. Which is a solid offer IMO.

 

I don't want them to give Kelly up, but I understand the type of player that would be coming back. And he really shouldn't be untouchable. As high as his ceiling may be(and I admit I think it's top of the rotation high), he is only 20. And the Red Sox have shown consistency in advancing their young pitching prospects at a less then aggressive pace. So Kelly might not be a stable piece of this club until for 3+ seasons. A lot can happen over that time. So I wouldn't be upset if he was moved for a player like Agon.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hoyer wont be deceived right now BS07, remember, he knows all of the internal communications about all of these minor leaguers

[SoxSport]

I'd go one step further and say that the only way AdGon is dealt is if the sox hurt their current team more than they help it by adding AdGon' date=' right now.[/quote']

 

Agreed. It's a buy high situation right now. No doubt. Not a good time, unless Hoyer is willing to accept mostly A and AA prospects. That's where their best minor league talent is. But I think he needs ready now players. That means Buchholz and Ellsbury. If he gets Ellsbury, he's in the same situation as AdGon in a couple of years. And then there's Boras... As for Buccholz, I don't think he's shown as much as AdGon yet, and wonder if he would be enough of a ready now player. It's still too early for this deal to happen.

[riverside sluggers]

Buchholz pitching in cavernous PETCO Park and in the NL... yeah Id say he would thrive and then some

[a700hitter]

I think the FO went to Plan B too fast. Bay could have been landed by the Sox for probably very little more than they originally offered, but they lost the payroll flexibility by signing Cameron. I don't know why they rushed to sign Cameron. Were other teams knocking on his door? Holliday could also have been an option if Cameron hadn't been signed, because the market for Holliday is proving to be a bit soft. Substituting Cameron and Kotchman for Bay and Lowell is a big net loss offensively which will widen the gap with the Yankees despite the Lackey acquisition. I think the Sox are done making moves. Their off season plan and budget included only one big ticket long term acquisition. They told Bay to make a decision, because they were about to go in a different direction and then they announced the Lackey acquisition. They were going to add a big pitcher or a big bat, but not both. That's not a good formula for catching the Yankees.

 

Did you see the "Kotchman Friendly" article in the Herald. That article is such a transparent plant by the FO. They are trying to pump up his popularity, because he is going to be the Opening Day first baseman in my opinion. There was absolutely no reason to write an article about this guy at this time, except that it was prompted by the FO. This, plus Tito's official declaration of love for the guy means they are selling him to the fan base as the 2010 first baseman.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20091229red_sox_casey_kotchman_on_claus_nice_list/

 

Make no mistake about it. The Sox got worse despite the Lackey acquisition. In order to compete with the Yankees, they are going to need to stay healthy while the Yankees suffer a few key injuries, and they will need a big year from Big Papi-- and everyone is writing his obituary. There will be no acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez. Hoyer doesn't want his first major move to be trading the team's young super star to his old boss. He'll want a king's ransom for that. Theo doesn't want to sacrifice the future for a single trade. That's understandable, but they don't want to preserve the future and purchase the present either. Kotchman and Cameron are not the short term answer to making a championship run even with the acquisition of Lackey.

[Dipre]

Anything but Kotchman at 1B makes this a whole new ballgame though.

[a700hitter]

Anything but Kotchman at 1B makes this a whole new ballgame though.

Agreed, but Bay is gone. Holliday will soon be gone. That leaves Beltre, and I don't see them acquiring Beltre until someone takes Lowell. Lowell just came out of surger, and no one will take him until he can resume baseball activity. By then Beltre is gone. Gonzalez is not going to happen no matter how much we pray for it. What's left? It looks like the Kotchman train is on the rails and chugging down the track.

[riverside sluggers]

I think the Sox would sign Beltre even if Lowell is still on board

[a700hitter]

I think the Sox would sign Beltre even if Lowell is still on board

Then they'll have to be prepared to DFA him and get nothing in return. Beltre would be a defensive upgrade, but I am not convinced that he would be even a marginal offensive upgrade.

[example1]

Then they'll have to be prepared to DFA him and get nothing in return. Beltre would be a defensive upgrade' date=' but I am not convinced that he would be even a marginal offensive upgrade.[/quote']

 

And when combined defense and offense is taken into account the overall production is...?

 

Welcome back, btw.

[neilpatrickharris]

I think the FO went to Plan B too fast. Bay could have been landed by the Sox for probably very little more than they originally offered, but they lost the payroll flexibility by signing Cameron. I don't know why they rushed to sign Cameron. Were other teams knocking on his door? Holliday could also have been an option if Cameron hadn't been signed, because the market for Holliday is proving to be a bit soft. Substituting Cameron and Kotchman for Bay and Lowell is a big net loss offensively which will widen the gap with the Yankees despite the Lackey acquisition. I think the Sox are done making moves. Their off season plan and budget included only one big ticket long term acquisition. They told Bay to make a decision, because they were about to go in a different direction and then they announced the Lackey acquisition. They were going to add a big pitcher or a big bat, but not both. That's not a good formula for catching the Yankees.

 

Did you see the "Kotchman Friendly" article in the Herald. That article is such a transparent plant by the FO. They are trying to pump up his popularity, because he is going to be the Opening Day first baseman in my opinion. There was absolutely no reason to write an article about this guy at this time, except that it was prompted by the FO. This, plus Tito's official declaration of love for the guy means they are selling him to the fan base as the 2010 first baseman.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20091229red_sox_casey_kotchman_on_claus_nice_list/

 

Make no mistake about it. The Sox got worse despite the Lackey acquisition. In order to compete with the Yankees, they are going to need to stay healthy while the Yankees suffer a few key injuries, and they will need a big year from Big Papi-- and everyone is writing his obituary. There will be no acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez. Hoyer doesn't want his first major move to be trading the team's young super star to his old boss. He'll want a king's ransom for that. Theo doesn't want to sacrifice the future for a single trade. That's understandable, but they don't want to preserve the future and purchase the present either. Kotchman and Cameron are not the short term answer to making a championship run even with the acquisition of Lackey.

 

How can you assume Cameron was plan B? Maybe the Red Sox looked at his declining defense and decided he wasn't the right fit for the next 4/5 years. Cameron is only a two year commitment and by that time Reddick/Kalish/Westmoreland may be ready to go.

 

Do you really think a front office planted a story for a reporter as a way of pumping up Kotchman's popularity? Did you also consider that perhaps this is a slow offseason and writers need something to write about?

 

If you want to dispute the stuff said in the article I'm all ears, but fact is that he's an excellent defensive 1B who's shown good offensive ability in his limited major league time.

[a700hitter]

And when combined defense and offense is taken into account the overall production is...?

You are arguing on the periphery. I'd be happy if they got Beltre, even though I don't think very highly of him. That shows how little I regard Kotchman. Howver, the Red Sox off season is over with regard to major acquisitions. Unless Beltre has no market and the Sox can get him for a song, he will not be signed by the Sox. The Sox offense will experience a marked fall off from 2009.

[a700hitter]

How can you assume Cameron was plan B? Maybe the Red Sox looked at his declining defense and decided he wasn't the right fit for the next 4/5 years. Cameron is only a two year commitment and by that time Reddick/Kalish/Westmoreland may be ready to go.

They offered Bay a contract during the season and they offered him a contract during the off season. They went back to him at least once that has been documented to get him to make a decision before moving forward. That is why I conclude that Cameron was Plan B. If Bay was Plan B, they wouldn't have offered him 4 yrs/$60 million. Do you really want to argue the point that Cameron might not have been Plan B? He could have been Plan C or D, but give the FO some credit. He was not Plan A.

 

Do you really think a front office planted a story for a reporter as a way of pumping up Kotchman's popularity? Did you also consider that perhaps this is a slow off season and writers need something to write about?

Slow off season? There was no one more interesting to write about. No one on the roster had anything interesting happen this winter. Lots of the Sox hosted charity and community events. That would be newsworthy. This article which mentions his so-called "break out" 2007 season and how his progress was curtailed by a hit to the head was a pure puff piece. It was a "you'll be surprised how good he is" piece. There's a story in the article about him scaling a wall in the minors to catch a foul pop, and the article concludes with “I’m glad he’s on our team,” Claus said. “I can tell you that.” Yeah, I'd say it is a puff piece. Did the FO have a role in this article? I think they might have. The author Tomase doesn't have the track record of the other Boston beat writers. If he plays nice with the FO, maybe he gets a scoop or two. Maybe he gets some good access for interviews. Organizations like the Red Sox use the press. It's part of their job.

[a700hitter]

If you want to dispute the stuff said in the article I'm all ears' date=' but fact is that he's an excellent defensive 1B who's shown good offensive ability in his limited major league time.[/quote']He's a slow-footed singles hitter who plays a position where there are many good power hitters throughout the league. IMO, he's also a notch below Youkilis with the glove at first base.

[Cocos Disciples]

He's a slow-footed singles hitter who plays a position where there are many good power hitters throughout the league. IMO' date=' he's also a notch below Youkilis with the glove at first base.[/quote']I'd say he's on par with Youk defensively, but I would not be happy if he was the opening day 1B. He's a below average hitter at a position that calls for much better.

[a700hitter]

When last season ended, it was obvious that the Sox had some work to do to close the gap on the Yankees. We needed another starter, and at the very least we needed to keep our offense intact, but we were hoping to upgrade. Of course something needed to be done at SS. We got Scutaro, and that didn't make anyone turn back flips. We got Lackey and we did back flips an waited for the next shoe to drop. Now, Bay has gone. Holliday is almost gone, and it is becoming clear that the FO is seriously thinking of starting the season with Kotchman at first base and Cameron in LF. The combination represents a downgrade from the offense we finished with in 2009. We were all hot for San Diego's Gonzalez, but now it looks like that will not happen. The FO doesn't want to gut the farm system to get one guy. I understand the concern about the future. However, Holliday would not cost the future, just money, and he is damn good. We hear that the FO will not do a deal with Halladay because they will go over the Luxury cap. What is the penalty for that 40% or 100%? I'm not sure. In any event if they blow $10 million past the luxury cap of $170 million, it would cost an additional $4 million or $10 million. Would that bring financial ruin to the Sox? They threw away $10.5 million on bags of garbage like Penny and Smoltz last year. $10 million spread over a 6 year contract is not a lot. Next season, a lot of $ comes off the payroll and the cap shouldn't be a problem.

 

Right now this team is very expensive and it is not competitive with the Yankees and the FO knows it. Everything would have to go right for the Sox and the Yanks would need a very bumpy road. What is the big deal about luxury tax for 1 year? The Red Sox completely disregard the informal cost guidelines for signing draft picks and they have prospered as a result. Why are they so firm about this luxury threshold?

[example1]

When last season ended, it was obvious that the Sox had some work to do to close the gap on the Yankees. We needed another starter, and at the very least we needed to keep our offense intact, but we were hoping to upgrade. Of course something needed to be done at SS. We got Scutaro, and that didn't make anyone turn back flips. We got Lackey and we did back flips an waited for the next shoe to drop. Now, Bay has gone. Holliday is almost gone, and it is becoming clear that the FO is seriously thinking of starting the season with Kotchman at first base and Cameron in LF. The combination represents a downgrade from the offense we finished with in 2009. We were all hot for San Diego's Gonzalez, but now it looks like that will not happen. The FO doesn't want to gut the farm system to get one guy. I understand the concern about the future. However, Holliday would not cost the future, just money, and he is damn good. We hear that the FO will not do a deal with Halladay because they will go over the Luxury cap. What is the penalty for that 40% or 100%? I'm not sure. In any event if they blow $10 million past the luxury cap of $170 million, it would cost an additional $4 million or $10 million. Would that bring financial ruin to the Sox? They threw away $10.5 million on bags of garbage like Penny and Smoltz last year. $10 million spread over a 6 year contract is not a lot. Next season, a lot of $ comes off the payroll and the cap shouldn't be a problem.

 

Right now this team is very expensive and it is not competitive with the Yankees and the FO knows it. Everything would have to go right for the Sox and the Yanks would need a very bumpy road. What is the big deal about luxury tax for 1 year? The Red Sox completely disregard the informal cost guidelines for signing draft picks and they have prospered as a result. Why are they so firm about this luxury threshold?

 

The point of the season is not to beat the Yankees, it is to win as many of the 162 games as possible. I agree with you that a gap still exists between the Yankees and Red Sox on paper.

 

Just like in other years, the Sox best chance may be for the Yankees to lose to someone else, or to beat them luckily (perhaps with some bad Yankees pitching performances) in the playoffs.

 

If we are sitting here feeling dissatisfied with the composition of this team at this time next year I will join you in the complain-wagon. They have really built up the "contracts off the books in 2010" and the FA class of 2010 and their deep (see: trade-worthy) farm system, so I anticipate WS caliber teams not just in 2010 but through the length of Pedroia and Lester's contracts (as a point of reference).

 

At this point I see them as wild-card favorites in 2010, and with some good chemistry and/or a good offensive pickup mid-season certainly capable of winning it all. I also think they have managed to set themselves up for a great 2010 draft class with 5 picks in the top 50. I see a lot more to be optimistic about than not with this franchise.

[Dipre]

All the FO needs to do is find a suitable option for either 1B or 3B. I say that, as much as i dislike the idea, they should give Lowell a look at 1B if he's healthy. It's a gamble, but it's better than having Kotchman.

[example1]

All the FO needs to do is find a suitable option for either 1B or 3B. I say that' date=' as much as i dislike the idea, they should give Lowell a look at 1B if he's healthy. It's a gamble, but it's better than having Kotchman.[/quote']

 

If the issue is someone who can play 1B servicably, they should also consider playing Ortiz there.

[Dipre]

If the issue is someone who can play 1B servicably' date=' they should also consider playing Ortiz there.[/quote']

 

I don't think he can. Because of his hard hands and his body type.

[a700hitter]

No one is addressing the issue of this Luxury Tax barrier that the Sox refuse to cross. It's not a major $ item, so I don't get it. Signing Holliday in conjunction with lackey would put the Sox in the elite class of the Yankees for 2010 and beyond, and they would still have the minor league crop coming to the majors in 2012-13. The reason why I use the Yankees when I discuss competitiveness is because they are the team to beat. They have earned that status. If Toronto had won the Championship last year, I would be talking about being competetive with Toronto. I don't know what Example means when he says that the goal is "to win as many of the 162 games as possible." Wouldn't Holliday help the team win more games? If the best team in the AL was projected to win 90-92 games, should the Red Sox build a team to win 105 games or 95. It seems that building a team to win 105 would be overkill from a cost perspective, but wouldn't that be in line with your stated goal of winning as many of the 162 games as possible. I disagree with that goal. I think a team should be built to compete with and beat the other quality teams in the Division and the league.

[Lester82]

No one is addressing the issue of this Luxury Tax barrier that the Sox refuse to cross. It's not a major $ item, so I don't get it.

 

Agreed.

[yankees228]

The point of the season is not to beat the Yankees, it is to win as many of the 162 games as possible. I agree with you that a gap still exists between the Yankees and Red Sox on paper.

 

Just like in other years, the Sox best chance may be for the Yankees to lose to someone else, or to beat them luckily (perhaps with some bad Yankees pitching performances) in the playoffs.

 

If we are sitting here feeling dissatisfied with the composition of this team at this time next year I will join you in the complain-wagon. They have really built up the "contracts off the books in 2010" and the FA class of 2010 and their deep (see: trade-worthy) farm system, so I anticipate WS caliber teams not just in 2010 but through the length of Pedroia and Lester's contracts (as a point of reference).

 

At this point I see them as wild-card favorites in 2010, and with some good chemistry and/or a good offensive pickup mid-season certainly capable of winning it all. I also think they have managed to set themselves up for a great 2010 draft class with 5 picks in the top 50. I see a lot more to be optimistic about than not with this franchise.

 

That advantage that you talk about the Yankees having in past years, in my opinion, did not exist until last year. Even in 2006, for the first four months of the season, the two teams were neck and neck. A ridiculous amount of injuries made it impossible for the Red Sox to compete over the last two months of the season. From 2003 on, the Red Sox, even on paper, were just as good, if not better than the Yankees up until last year.

[a700hitter]

That advantage that you talk about the Yankees having in past years' date=' in my opinion, did not exist until last year. Even in 2006, for the first four months of the season, the two teams were neck and neck. A ridiculous amount of injuries made it impossible for the Red Sox to compete over the last two months of the season. From 2003 on, the Red Sox, even on paper, were just as good, if not better than the Yankees up until last year.[/quote']By the end of 2008, the Red Sox had set the standard for other teams to beat. Yankee management realized that they had to vastly improve their pitching and upgrade their offense to compete with the Red Sox. They got it done last off season in such a big way that the Yankees shifeted the balance of power away from the Red Sox. They are now the team to beat. If the Red Sox FO is not building a team to beat the Yankees, then they are not building a team with a realistic chance to win a Championship in 2010.

[example1]

I think a team should be built to compete with and beat the other quality teams in the Division and the league.

 

They do compete with and beat the other quality teams in the Division and the league. In case you didn't notice, the Sox acquisition of Lackey took the Angels ace and put him on the Red Sox. The Angels are who the Red Sox have met time and again in the playoffs. Seattle may have passed the Angels (as some speculate) but the Angels are still a good team and a well-run franchise. They are certainly "competing with" the other teams.

 

In terms of being able to beat the Yankees they are 26-28 against them head-to-head the past 3 seasons, including 9-9 in '08 and '09. They aren't a dramatically inferior team head-to-head.

[a700hitter]

In terms of being able to beat the Yankees they are 26-28 against them head-to-head the past 3 seasons' date=' including 9-9 in '08 and '09. They aren't a dramatically inferior team head-to-head.[/quote']The tide has turned with regard to the Yankees. The Red Sox were the standard and the team to beat until last year, but that changed drastically last season. After the weather turned warm and the Yankees kicked it into gear, the Sox went 1 and 9 against the Yankees in 2009, and the Yankees looked dominant doing it.

 

Without being a homer, I can't sit here and honestly evaluate the Red Sox as a team that can compete with and beat the Yankees in 2010 with the current personnel. The Yankees are much better than the Sox offensively, and the pitching is very close. Whoever has the better bullpen will have the better pitching, because the rotations are very close. At the end of last season, the bullpen edge went to the Yankees, and I think they have the better bullpen personnel at this point too.

[example1]

That advantage that you talk about the Yankees having in past years' date=' in my opinion, did not exist until last year. Even in 2006, for the first four months of the season, the two teams were neck and neck. A ridiculous amount of injuries made it impossible for the Red Sox to compete over the last two months of the season. From 2003 on, the Red Sox, even on paper, were just as good, if not better than the Yankees up until last year.[/quote']

 

Think about the players as they were known at the time. Before 2007 think about how you would have replied to debate over Cano vs. Pedroia, Lowell vs. A-Rod, Lugo vs. Jeter, Varitek vs. Posada, Damon vs Crisp, even Youkilis vs. Giambi (or whoever the 1B was)etc.,

 

Looking back on it now the Sox had the better 07 team on paper, but that wasn't the case at the time. Beckett was coming off his s***** 06 season, Dice-K was a new-import, Schilling was injured, Lester was recovering, the list goes on. The Sox were boosted by an unexpected ROY year from Pedroia and a late season contribution from Lester and Ellsbury to win. Not something predictable just by looking at the teams on paper. Likewise with 2004, the Yankees were defending AL Champs and it took a miracle for the Sox to win that year.

 

What type of "you can't see it now but it could be there" potential does the 2010 team have? Ellsbury could play like he did the last 50 games of 09 and become a very valuable player; Dice-K can pitch well; Buchholz can do what so many people think he can do and perform like an ace; Ortiz can return to some semblance of himself; Victor Martinez can be a 120ish OPS+ contributer for a whole season; Scutaro could repeat his 2009 season, etc., etc.,

 

Some of those things could improve the team over last year's team, even with the loss of Jason Bay, and last year's team dealt with some unfortunate s*** and still managed to win 95 games.