Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Keeper]

Not to toot my own horn, but on EEI today, at around 215pm, it was rumored that the current deal on the table is:

 

Laptop

Lowrie

Ellsbury (I didnt include him in my original)

Esposito ( I included him later in the thread)

Kotchman

 

 

Westmoreland and Kelly are untouchables.

 

Also happy to see Kotchman on his way out. I hope Theo's faith in Westmoreland and Kelly isn't misplaced because Ellsbury and Buchholz have a lot of value.

[example1]

Interesting comment from today's Lackey press conference:

 

THEO:We had a couple different versions of an offseason plan, some involved spending more resources on a big time position player, and getting pitching depth, but this really intrigued us, as an alternative. And the deeper we got in to the offseason the more intrigued we got the more we dug about John and his personality and his fit for the red sox and what it would mean for our rotation and the future of our rotation we got more and more interested and talks developed well and it ended up being the right path for us.

 

1. I imagine the big time position player he's talking about is Holliday.

 

2. The future of this rotation is really, really nice. I'm not sure Theo is very interested in dealing Buchholz any time soon. If they resign Beckett to a 5 year, Lackey-like deal this offseason, Matsuzaka will be the first pitcher of the 5 to reach FA, in 2013.

 

Lester (2015) ($41.75m) (5)

Beckett (2015) ($82.5m) (5)

Lackey (2015) ($82.5m) (5)

Matsuzaka (2013) ($30m) (3)

Buchholz (2015) ($17.5m) (5)--a guess--what Lackey made his first 6 seasons

 

$254m/23 years. That's $11.4m per-pitcher-year. A good deal for that group IMO, and a group that would be hard to upgrade for any reasonable price.

[jacksonianmarch]

You are making a pretty strong assumption my friend. Beckett has a bit more of a track record, and unlike Lackey, when Beckett is on, he is one of the top 2 or 3 pitchers in the AL along with CC and Verlander. I have a hard time believing that Beckett doesnt top the century mark.

[Imperial59]

You are making a pretty strong assumption my friend. Beckett has a bit more of a track record' date=' and unlike Lackey, when Beckett is on, he is one of the top 2 or 3 pitchers in the AL along with CC and Verlander. I have a hard time believing that Beckett doesnt top the century mark.[/quote']

 

You must have missed when Lackey had a 3.02 ERA in the second half this year or when he had a 2.46 ERA in the first half of 2008, or when he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting the year before.

 

And how does Beckett have more of a track record? Lackey has 8 more career starts, 100 more career innings, and a nearly identical career ERA.

[jacksonianmarch]

Player A: 1401IP 1280H 590ER 426BB 1330K 3.79ERA 1.21WHIP 8.5K/9IP 3.1K/BB .242BAA .692OPSA

Player B: 1501IP 1519H 636ER 441BB 1201K 3.81ERA 1.31WHIP 7.2K/9IP 2.7K/BB .263BAA .719OPSA

 

Player A has by far better peripherals and has two world series rings to Player B's 1. Also, in those two world series runs, Player A was probably the MVP of the team in the postseason. Obviously, Player A is Beckett. AND, Lackey is coming off two yrs in which he had arm issues and didnt reach 200IP. Beckett, OTOH, has reached 200IP 3 of the last 4 yrs and his injury history has been oblique, blisters, and back. And, Beckett will hit the market a yr younger

[Emmz]

You're REALLY stretching the difference from Lackey to Beckett, dude.

[Dipre]

Player A: 1401IP 1280H 590ER 426BB 1330K 3.79ERA 1.21WHIP 8.5K/9IP 3.1K/BB .242BAA .692OPSA

Player B: 1501IP 1519H 636ER 441BB 1201K 3.81ERA 1.31WHIP 7.2K/9IP 2.7K/BB .263BAA .719OPSA

 

Player A has by far better peripherals and has two world series rings to Player B's 1. Also, in those two world series runs, Player A was probably the MVP of the team in the postseason. Obviously, Player A is Beckett. AND, Lackey is coming off two yrs in which he had arm issues and didnt reach 200IP. Beckett, OTOH, has reached 200IP 3 of the last 4 yrs and his injury history has been oblique, blisters, and back. And, Beckett will hit the market a yr younger

 

There's a really big difference between what you want to happen, and what actually will happen.

[riverside sluggers]

Me thinks someone wants Beckett in pinstripes haha

[Imperial59]

You're REALLY stretching the difference from Lackey to Beckett' date=' dude.[/quote']

 

Yup, that's kind of his thing though.

[Emmz]

I think trying to say that guys who are that close in statistics, and Lackey even having more experience, with those similar statistics, while Jacko can state that the other (Beckett) has "more of a track record" than Lackey shows a lot of bias.

[a700hitter]

Not to toot my own horn, but on EEI today, at around 215pm, it was rumored that the current deal on the table is:

 

Laptop

Lowrie

Ellsbury (I didnt include him in my original)

Esposito ( I included him later in the thread)

Kotchman

 

 

Westmoreland and Kelly are untouchables.

On WEEI today before noon, Tito said that he likes this team and he thinks its great that the defense and pitching have been improved. That was the focus of the off-season. He doesn't see the need for additional moves, and then he concluded with an unsolicited compliment for Kotchman. He said that he really liked him and that he wouldn't mind having him in the bottom of the lineup catching every ball at 1B. He went on and on about the guy without being asked about him. I almost drove off the rode. If this is an indication that Theo will wait till mid seaso to see if he needs another bat, the Yankees will bury us if we don't get another bat. If the Lowell trade goes through, essentially we will have replaced Lowell's and Bay's bats with Cameron and Kotchman. That doesn't add up to me.

[Dipre]

On WEEI today before noon' date=' Tito said that he likes this team and he thinks its great that the defense and pitching have been improved. That was the focus of the off-season. He doesn't see the need for additional moves, and then he concluded with an unsolicited compliment for Kotchman. He said that he really liked him and that he wouldn't mind having him in the bottom of the lineup catching every ball at 1B. He went on and on about the guy without being asked about him. I almost drove off the rode. If this is an indication that Theo will wait till mid seaso to see if he needs another bat, the Yankees will bury us if we don't get another bat. If the Lowell trade goes through, essentially we will have replaced Lowell's and Bay's bats with Cameron and Kotchman. That doesn't add up to me.[/quote']

 

Maybe Tito's trying to deflect attention and get the media to STFU about another bat?

 

I'm reaching here, i know.

[a700hitter]

Maybe Tito's trying to deflect attention and get the media to STFU about another bat?

 

I'm reaching here, i know.

I hope so, but the interview was concluding, and they didn't ask him about getting another bat, and they didn't ask him about Kotchman. He just made the comments without any solicitation.

[Plumpamania]

That's NOT a good sign. The Yankees took some hits with Matsui/Damon leaving but you can rest assured see them add something.

[Teddyballgame10]

On WEEI today before noon' date=' Tito said that he likes this team and he thinks its great that the defense and pitching have been improved. That was the focus of the off-season. He doesn't see the need for additional moves, and then he concluded with an unsolicited compliment for Kotchman. He said that he really liked him and that he wouldn't mind having him in the bottom of the lineup catching every ball at 1B. He went on and on about the guy without being asked about him. I almost drove off the rode. If this is an indication that Theo will wait till mid seaso to see if he needs another bat, the Yankees will bury us if we don't get another bat. If the Lowell trade goes through, essentially we will have replaced Lowell's and Bay's bats with Cameron and Kotchman. That doesn't add up to me.[/quote']

 

Agreed, we need a bat. The Bay loss alone is devastating. Where are 36 homers going to come from now?

[CoachC.]

Could we really trade the 2009 Defensive player of the year?

 

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091216&content_id=7819510&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

[jacksonianmarch]

As we all know, the writers and award givers don't look at stats aside from errors and webgems. Thats about it. Ellsbury has always been dinged for taking bad routes to the ball, which requires him to dive so often.

[SoxSport]

Won't be Ellsbury. SD will never deal with Boras for an extension.

Has to be Buchholz plus a pupu platter.

 

Ellsbury defensive player of the year? I understand he doesn't have good UZR numbers. That stat tends to produce scattershot, anyways. His jump on the ball and arm are questionable, but he does the job in CF with his speed.

They can't trade this guy, but Boras will be a bear to deal with in a couple of years.

[Rdsxmbnt]

As we all know' date=' the writers and award givers don't look at stats aside from errors and webgems. Thats about it. Ellsbury has always been dinged for taking bad routes to the ball, which requires him to dive so often.[/quote']

 

Watch those diving catches in that link and tell me where he went wrong on any of them.

[SoxSport]

Maybe Tito's trying to deflect attention and get the media to STFU about another bat?

 

I'm reaching here, i know.

 

Forget about what Tito says to the media. He gives them a lot of pap. One of his qualities.

Did I say pap? a freudian slip. or slap.

[TedWilliams101]

I can dream right:

We trade Ellsbury, Kotchman, Lowrie, +others for Gonzalez and then to fill the hole in LF... they get... Holliday.

Pedroia

Drew

Youk

Gonzalez

Holliday

Ortiz

Vmart

Cameron

Scutaro

[Spudboy]

As we all know' date=' the writers and award givers don't look at stats aside from errors and webgems. Thats about it. Ellsbury has always been dinged for taking bad routes to the ball, which requires him to dive so often.[/quote']

 

*sigh*

 

I've expressed my opinion on Ellsbury's D several times. I see no need to be redundant.

Nor do I see a need to state the obvious (as you have done here).

 

I will say this. I have not seen a causative relationship between his break/routes and his diving highlight reel catches. He is capable of making plays despite his deficiencies because he has such tremendous athleticism and speed. Which also enable him to make all those spectacular grabs.

 

I wonder if you would be so quick to minimize his ability and game impact if he were wearing pinstripes.

[SoxSport]

On the issue of replacing Bay's HRs, Cameron and VMart over a whole year will more than compensate.

 

There is an issue of replacing Lowell's HRs (17) if he is traded.

[Dojji]

The best possible lineups given our roster and resources are achieved by trading for Hanley Ramirez.

[Palodios]

Hanley is likely just as untouchable as Agon, and they just filled the hole in SS. There is a reason he goes at #1 in most fantasy drafts, and he's cheap too. If the sox had any intention on getting him, they would have done it before getting Scutaro.

[BoSox21]

The best possible lineups given our roster and resources are achieved by trading for Hanley Ramirez.

 

Why not just say Albert Pujols? Just as likely...

[Spudboy]

On the issue of replacing Bay's HRs, Cameron and VMart over a whole year will more than compensate.

 

There is an issue of replacing Lowell's HRs (17) if he is traded.

 

This is a rational assumption.

 

However, would this combo exceed the performance of Bay and VMart?

 

Nope.

 

And that is why the team would seem weaker offensively.

[Gom]

I wonder who will perform better next year....Clay or Joba.

[Keeper]

Clay, especially if he gets out of the AL East and pitches at Petco. But if the Yankees move Joba back into the bullpen like they should, maybe Joba.

[Dojji]

Why not just say Albert Pujols? Just as likely...

 

Because the Cardinals aren't cheap as thirdhand $***