Anti-Fantasy League Draft and Discussion Thread

[BoSox21]

ummm, didnt he bring the convo back to what we were talking about?

[BSN07]

We'll see if Miller can get his walk rate down to sane levels at some point. He's definitely a work in progress' date=' and the major league contract hurt him a lot. I suspect he's just too raw to live and he'll get burned by the contract rules and have his development stunted as a result;[/quote']

 

He wouldn't be the first LHP to be wild and inconsistent and then mature later. He has the stuff and is in the right organization to develop into a very good SP.

[castigs850]

The American League? Has A-Rod and Morneau.

 

as does the billerica booblickers

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

ummm' date=' didnt he bring the convo back to what we were talking about?[/quote']

Nahhh, too logical.

[Dojji]

ummm' date=' didnt he bring the convo back to what we were talking about?[/quote']

 

Nah, he was maundering on about Bush's HBP in the '09 season. That really isn't very relevant to anything. HBP isn't a tell stat -- even if J_E was absolutely right, it still tells us absolutely nothing about David Bush other than that he's the victim of a minor statistical fluke. That's the definition of a red herring.

 

Why should I care about what Bush and Meche are doing so far this year when in both cases, there are many years of player history to fall back on and judge them? I don't need to use the '09 stats to evaulate these players because they both have a body of work in their past. Unless there is a severe deviation from the norm (such as Chien-Ming Wang's or David Ortiz's performacnes this year and NOT such as Bush's HBP totals) the incomplete '09 sample size is less valuable than any one other year of stats.

[ORS]

Meh. "Stuff" is more than fastball velocity. I'll take Bush's WHIP given the choice.

 

As for K/9, Bush is at 6.1 and Meche is at 6.6 for their careers. Not exactly an earth-shattering difference.

I've posted in the past, with some analysis, that the major difference in offensive production in the leagues is due to the DH vs. the pitcher hitting. So, I agree with you that the league difference in negligible......outside the rule difference.....but the rule difference will certainly have an impact on something like striking out.

 

For a quick comparison, using 2008 stats, pitchers and pinch hitters combined for 2846 K's in 9905 PA's. That's 3.48 PA/K. The DH struck out 1756 times in 9252 PA, for 5.26 PA/K. With a league average near 5 runs a game, you only need 4 LOB to average 5 PA a game, which is a nice round number I'll use to turn these rates into per game performance. The 5.26 becomes .95 K/G, the 3.48 is 1.43 K/G.

 

All other things being equal, ie the only difference in leagues is the rule difference, and the difference of 0.5 is really more like 1.0, or close to it, in terms of the ability to strike hitters out.

 

Pitching at home at Kauffman Stadium with its deep outfield is probably the biggest part of his "turnaround."

You know, if you want to credit the environment for the change, there's more to it than noting the change and the characteristics of the new place. An honest assessment would consider the original environment. From the 2006-2008, the HR park factor for Kaufman was .890. For Safeco, it was .930. There's more to it than just saying it's a park thing.

[Dojji]

All other things being equal, ie the only difference in leagues is the rule difference, and the difference of 0.5 is really more like 1.0, or close to it, in terms of the ability to strike hitters out.

 

That is a pretty fair point, I'll cop to having overlooked that. Doesn't really hurt my argument that much, neither of them are exactly strikeout pitchers.

 

 

You know, if you want to credit the environment for the change, there's more to it than noting the change and the characteristics of the new place. An honest assessment would consider the original environment. From the 2006-2008, the HR park factor for Kaufman was .890. For Safeco, it was .930. There's more to it than just saying it's a park thing.

 

Now you've got me curious. I'll have a look around and see if I can find something else that explains the dropoff. It might simply be pure command improvement, since it coincides with a drop in bb/9, but I'm not convinced if only because the turnaround happened just as soon as he left one team and joined another.

 

Then again, it's the Mariners. I might simply be making the mistaken assumption that they knew what they were doing with Meche.

[Keeper]

This Bush-Meche debate is meaningless. If I get who I have in mind for my 5th starter, look out.

[Cocos Disciples]

^ I'm almost positive I know who you are after.

[Dipre]

^ I'm almost positive I know who you are after.

 

So am i, and i'm nearly certain he doesn't have the health track record of Meche, which is the primary reason why i took Meche.

[BoSox21]

s***, my 5th starter needs TJ

[Cocos Disciples]

I'm a fan of both the Soriano and Gonzalez picks. BoSox21 has an awesome outfield, DipreG has the best bullpen right now.

[Dipre]

I'm a fan of both the Soriano and Gonzalez picks. BoSox21 has an awesome outfield' date=' DipreG has the best bullpen right now.[/quote']

 

I've stretched out for the following back-patting.

 

My team is full of WIN.

[msubulldogs21]

DipreG, I think you have a really good team, I'm just not a big fan of the Gonzalez pick. I don't trust that guy one bit. It seems like every time I'm watching the Braves he's blowing a save or doing something bad.

[Dipre]

DipreG' date=' I think you have a really good team, I'm just not a big fan of the Gonzalez pick. I don't trust that guy one bit. It seems like every time I'm watching the Braves he's blowing a save or doing something bad.[/quote']

 

Then you don't watch the Braves much man.

 

He's sporting a 2.77 ERA, and a 10.4 K/9.

 

Thing is, lefties are hitting .384 with a .800+ OPS, that is not sustainable.

 

He's a bit wild, i'll give you that, but he's much,much better than Brian Fuentes.

 

I dare you to find me a much better LH setup man than Mike Gonzales.

[msubulldogs21]

Yeah I know there wasn't a ton available and everything - I just don't trust him for one second. Like, if I was an opponent and saw him come into the game, I'd feel like we'd have a good chance to tie it up or win. The stats don't back that up I realize, I'm just saying how I feel watching him. That's all.

[BoSox21]

I dare you to find me a much better LH setup man than Mike Gonzales.

 

J.P. Howell

[msubulldogs21]

J.P. Howell

 

I think he meant that was still available.

[diony]

J.P. Howell

 

Gonzalez is better.

[Dipre]

J.P. Howell

 

I suppose you have your own planet.

 

And in your planet, he's better.

 

But here in earth, you know, Gonzales is much much better than Howell.

[Keeper]

If what we're seeing this year is the true Michael Bourn, that was a really good pick by Yankshater. Doesn't get as much hype as Ellsbury, but I think Bourn may actually be better - or at least has a chance to be better.

[Dipre]

If what we're seeing this year is the true Michael Bourn' date=' that was a really good pick by Yankshater. Doesn't get as much hype as Ellsbury, but I think Bourn may actually be better - or at least has a chance to be better.[/quote']

 

He, like Ellsbury, is allergic to getting on base.

 

However, his speed and defense are very very good assets.

[Cocos Disciples]

Unless 2008 Bourn is the real Bourn. Then he's basically the worst hitter ever.

[Keeper]

True.

[YanksHater213]

I like his improvement this year, plus his speed and decent OBP leading off my lineup.

[Cocos Disciples]

Booooo BSN07 for stopping what could have been an epic streak. Hopefully we'll get a good run during tomorrow's game.

 

Dojji and ORS could just send me two picks so I can make them once BSN07 picks, to speed things up. But that's optional.

[BSN07]

Sorry guys, you didn't make you picks until almost 2:30am here and I had just gone to bed.

 

I took Carlos Gonzalez from the Rockies. I wasn't sure how I was going to set my defense up yet, but Gonzalez gives me options. He allows me to put one of my big power bats Braun/Hamilton at DH. Thus negating the trivial trial of trying to find some kind of power hitter left out there. I'll have to do a little more research on each players Defense/Arm before setting my OF.

[Cocos Disciples]

Ahh right you're in the Netherlands. Forgot about that.

[BoSox21]

I leave for the Cape for a week on Saturday. CD, should I PM a list of guys to you or Kilo?

 

btw, I'll be in the car leaving a trail of awesomeness as I roll through Boston if you guys wanna look out...

[Cocos Disciples]

I'm not actually sure when Kilo comes back; PM it to me and I'll send it to Kilo when he gets back. Or send it to both.