Just circling back on this (Durbin), there are very few reasons to not lock him up, even at his advanced age. There are guys that we can be reasonably sure we will give a number of chances to. So let's say we offer to lock in Durbin for three years for $3M. That represents an excess over his minimum salary for about $750k ($3M - $750k*3). The $750k represents our risk.
In return, he gives us 4th, 5th, and 6th year options for $2M, $4M, and $6M. So if the upside of his performance is that he can earn $3M, $6M and $9M, then our risk is the $750k v the reward of $6M.
If this was real life, I'd discount both the $750k and $6M to reflect what I expect by way of under- and over-production. And I'd use McNeil as his comp.