JoeBrady
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Everything posted by JoeBrady
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Just so that I understand, predicting, and then trading, your most under-performing players, before they under-performed, is a strategy?
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There is a -0- chance that the best prospect in baseball was going to stay in the minors two more years. None.
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Correct.
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Replacing Durbin's 0.3 bWAR, with Marte's 0.2 bWAR, doesn't actually add up to 3 additional wins. That's heavily influenced by defense, so I won't argue it. But Marte has an 83 OPS+, and you're projecting him for 3 additional wins, over 27 GS, making him an 18 WAR player over 162 games.
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I agree. He is currently our best all-around OF. He should play every day and let the other three battle for playing time.
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I'm not all that comfortable with any aspect of his fielding. Duran might well be better.
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Fair comment. I guess my opinion is more a reflection for my preference for OBP over SLG.
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TBH, I'd more more concerned about starting IKF, but it's impossible to know if the RS have a rotation set up, rest days, an effort to get everyone at least some ABs.
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1-In 25 ABs against Lauer, Story has 3 HRs and 10 RBIs. Projected over 600 ABs, that 72 HRs and 240 RBIs. 2-While I agree with giving Mayer more ABs against lefties, he still has a .556 OPS against them. 3-While anything can happen, for the most part, there aren't any good reasons not to stack the lineup with righties.
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Jake Bennett Emerging as Key Left-Handed Option for Red Sox Bullpen
JoeBrady commented on Jakob Kazlauskas's blog entry in Jakob Kazlauskas
1-We have Chapman, Coloumbe, Moran and Samaniego in the BP; all lefties. I think Bennett would need at least one injury to those 4, maybe two, to get to the BP. 2-As we learned from the Tolle discussion, a reserve SP is much more important than a reserve RP. IMO, it i much more important to keep him on the starter track. There is a better chance of him pitching important games as an SP than as an RP. -
Only if you don't believe in math. I look at KC's peripherals and they are cringe-worthy. I look at Anthony's peripherals and see very good things. Some people look at Tolle's game last night and see an 0-1 and a 5.79 ERA. I prefer to look at hard-hit balls and composure to see what to expect in the future.
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Of course. That's history, But it doesn't matter when you win the games. It is your total that counts.
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9th is perfect for Durbin. He's a good base-stealer, and that should help the top of the order.
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That's a development/experience issue. Some players come in swinging at everything and then cut back as they see more pitches. Others come in overly selective. It isn't necessarily a bad thing. I was looking at Mayer's stats earlier, and noticed he has -0- Ks in his last 9 games and a 1/5 K/W in his last 40 ABs. This is a guy that had 41/8 last year in only 127 ABs. IMO, the start of good hitting is usually a good K/W.
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I mentioned that earlier. Some managers and coaches become a package deal. If we were talking about Tito, then Tito makes the decision. But if you're on the fence about Cora, and he gives you a hard time about Fatse, then they both go. And it is always difficult to tell how much of this is on the player and how much of it is on the coach, but I've been extremely displeased with our OBP over the past two years.
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Like a higher WAR. It seems like the OPS will be close, but the baserunning dynamism of Duran v the Joe Brady-esque speed of Yoshi is, let's say different.
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IMO, this is a winnable game. It's all small sample but Narvaez, Anthony, Story and Contreras have all had some success against Lauer. Abreu and Duran have only 8 ABs, but with a 2/2 K/W. No PAs by either Mayer or Durbin v Lauer. And most of the BP should be available.
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Nothing personal, but you are wasting your time. The same people that wanted to get rid of Mayer, Monasterio and Durbin, now want to bat them #3-4-5. Guys with his K/W and EV virtually always hit. Some fans refuse to acknowledge the numbers underlying the results.
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Nothing personal, but that is laughably wrong. BA and BP have been around a long time, and pay good money for scouts. The idea that they are salesmen with some type of vested interest in hyping Red Sox players is so wrong that I don't know how to process it.
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But if he does a hit a ton, we will win a lot more going forward. The timing of when guys hit doesn't impact the overall winning % of a team.
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This is a pet peeve of mine. RS fans (and some other teams as well) are always talking about team-supplied hype. While every team probably drops stories to their preferred writers, it is ultimately meaningless. BA, MLB, and BP didn't rank RA #2, #2, and #1 because the RS called them and asked 'pretty please' rank our guy #1.
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Everyone in baseball is doing this now, and actually do so earlier.
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It's frustrating, but I'm a fan of watching peripheral stats, In his last 14 games, RA has a 14/14 K/W. Even without my calculator, I am guessing that projects to 162/162 over 162 games. His launch angle is too low, but everyone with his EV hits a pretty fair amount of HRs. In 2025, Oneil Cruz, Wood, and Diaz are the players that resemble his EV/LA, and they averaged 25 HRs each.
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Which is fine. But I'm betting on future results.
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I assume that all these guys (just like ours) will revert some. But imagine a world in which we have: Bregman-Bichette-Alonso with their 0.5 bWAR and $101M salary, instead of Contreras-Suarez-Durbin with their 2.0 bWAR and $46M salary.
