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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    Another reason to use FIP over ERA. Crochet was unhittable in his last year with the WS. It took him a month to knock the rust off, and had a 2.83/2.27 the rest of the way. In his last 9 games, he had a 47/3 K/W in only 27.2 IPs. That's just about unhittable. You can't ignore the injury concerns, but he looked like one of the top-3 arms in BB.
  2. JoeBrady
    There is no coming clean with the fans, if for no other reason than no one can predict the future. There might not be a co-ace available at any price. The only one out there that might qualify as a 'co-ace' might be Greene. And maybe Cincy won't trade him to us because everyone wants to help us. Once you get to the next level of a #2, no one will ever agree on who qualifies as a #2. Does anyone consider Burns or Chandler a #2? But I'd prioritize them over almost anyone in baseball. And again, they are very unlikely to be available. Too many fans get overly involved in FO pronouncements and thinking that the FO should be advising them of everything that is going on.
  3. JoeBrady
    To me, he's a headcase. Lots of talent, but lots of bad games. Maybe slightly more talented than Lodolo, but I'd take Lodolo over Gore without a second thought.
  4. JoeBrady
    My opinion is that those three numbers should be identical over ten years. The reason why I prefer FIP over ERA is that it is more consistent and filters out the noise. But over ten years, the noise should be de minimis. Just for fun, with no real research, DeGrom's ERA/FIP is 2.57/2.71. Scherzer is 3.22/3.23. Wheeler is 3.28/3.29. But some fans will never accept calculations that they don't understand. And that's fine. But it is also less accurate.
  5. JoeBrady
    Well said. I think folks need to separate the #2 issue from this trade. There is a better than even chance that neither guy amounts to anything. One more year like last year, and you might not hear about Clarke again. In any case, neither rank highly in our future plans. I think it was best said when someone said 'the Red Sox just got better'. Nice and simple.
  6. JoeBrady
    Okay, I didn't have to add the playoffs. But there is almost no indication that Yoshida is not a good hitter. He's a lefty, and gets paid $18M+. But FG projects him as a wRC+ of 112. I think the RS corner the market on fans that think that, if a guy isn't a star, he's waiver bait. I don't consider Yoshida a problem whatsoever.
  7. JoeBrady
    While I agree that I'd like a #2, and quite honestly, with our farm, I'd like to see if someone is looking to move a #1. That said, the RS could legitimately want to give a rotation spot to Early and Tolle. If the FO assessment is that both of these guys have #2 potential, and the only to get to #2 status is to start them, I can't argue against that. The scouts love Tolle, and like Early a lot. They project as a #2 and a #3. I'd shell out a big package for Chandler or Burns, but there is also a good argument in favor of developing our own prospects.
  8. JoeBrady
    FIP is a better indicator of how well someone pitched. ERA is very inconsistent, and imo, the lowest level stat, except maybe for W/L. Start with K/W, GB/FB and HRs. Massage the HRs if there was an anomaly for a high or low HR/FB. That will tell you how good a pitcher is without spending a couple of hours on it. If you are going to go with a stat like ERA, massage that number for BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%.
  9. JoeBrady
    And BTW, the Jays just signed a real #2. Cease is off the boards. You said that Cease was a "real #2". TBH, I like Cease a little, but that was too much money for someone that inconsistent. But that's not the important part. If you don't like Cease as your #2, and Cease is the best available FA pitcher, what are you looking for?
  10. JoeBrady
    I'd say that Early should rank above those two. Tolle as well, though the RS might be thinking of different ways to develop him.
  11. JoeBrady
    One of the concepts that RS need to get use to is that you get what you pay for. If Alonso had a better glove, he'd get paid more money. If Alonso was two years younger, you'd have to sign him for two more years. Those things are already baked into his $110M/4. That's why he isn't $180M/6.
  12. JoeBrady
    No fans should ever think that they see things similar to any FO. And no executive of any company should be more forthcoming than the law mandates.
  13. JoeBrady
    I think your total payroll will be in excess of $280M. Not happening.
  14. JoeBrady
    But you consider Cease to be a #2 with an ERA of 4.55? Why?
  15. JoeBrady
    That's a copout. You want to criticize for not having done something that you have no idea of what you even want.
  16. JoeBrady
    That makes even less sense. Gray is 10x more consistent than Cease. Cease has had an ERA of 4.55 or higher in two of the last three seasons. Gray hasn't had an ERA that high since 2018. Maybe explain what the consistency is.
  17. JoeBrady
    I don't care what his PROJECTIONS are. I care what he has done. If you don't care about projections, then why would you think Cease is better than Gray? Gray had a better ERA, much better K/W, better record, much better Whip, more IPs, more IP/GS. If you want to go by 2025 stats, then Gray is better. If you want to go by FG projections, then Gray is better. But I think you need to choose one set of criteria.
  18. JoeBrady
    Not in the slightest. He had a 112 OPS+ in 2023-24, got hurt, had an .837 in September, and an 1.143 in the playoffs. Much like with Story, the issue is that he's overpaid, not that he cannot play.
  19. JoeBrady
    While I believe that Ceddanne should never be moved out of CF, I do agree with the hypothesis that a lot of regression *for Duran* is due to playing out of position. But the best move to address that is to simply trade him to a team that needs a CF.
  20. JoeBrady
    if Mil is looking to cut payroll, then Peralta won't be on the block. The correct target for the RS should be Woodruff, pending a huge drill-down into his medicals. Peralta, at $8M, is going to cost a lot of prospects. Woodruff, at $22M, will cost a lot less.
  21. JoeBrady
    I'd be real happy with Alcantara. That would give us a 1-4 that could compete with anyone. After that, throw out the 5-slot to the best pitcher coming out of ST.
  22. JoeBrady
    Crawford led the league in losses in 2024, finished the year with a 6.59 ERA in the second half, and missed 2025. He's not an option. And it's not to say that any of our #6/7/8/9 guys couldn't develop. But starting the year with 2 question marks in your rotation is going to make it a long season.
  23. JoeBrady
    Getting Sonny Gray does nothing to address our major needs. We needed three SPs. That's a major need. I'd love a #2, or better yet, another #1. But when you only have 2 SPs, you have a major need for pitching.
  24. JoeBrady
    Over the past three seasons, FG has him as the 5th (6th) highest WAR. While anything can happen, if you think he is a 4/5, I question your knowledge of pitching.
  25. JoeBrady
    Of course he addresses one of our major needs. We had two locked-in SPs on the team. We have some decent pitching prospects, but we had ONLY TWO real pitchers. Crochet was CY-level, and Bello was kind of meh+. So our #3, #4, and #5 SPs were going to be an injured Sandoval, Early with 4 career starts, and Tolle with 3 (weak) career starts. That's not a serious approach. Seriously, am I missing someone? Is there an SP on our team that I am missing?
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