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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    I have no problem incorporating as many stats as possible. The bottom line, for me, is the dramatic drop-off. There is a real good chance that he won't be playing at all at ages 35-37. There is only one player 2023-2025 ages 35-37, that has a fWAR of >3.0. No one even averages 1 fWAR/year. You need to get a ton of return from the first three years to make it worth $101M..
  2. JoeBrady
    I forgot about that, but I did think about it at the time, It was a pretty big shot, but he did linger a few seconds.
  3. JoeBrady
    I agree completely. A slow start doesn't mean that much to me.
  4. JoeBrady
    Real aging starts at 33.
  5. JoeBrady
    You can choose other stats. One of my favorites is PAs. From 2021-2025, there were only 16 players, aged 33-37, who even had 1,500 PAs (300/year). Only 6 that averaged 400 PAs.
  6. JoeBrady
    I don't find it that unusual. A lot of hot streaks start with one good batted ball.
  7. JoeBrady
    I used his career stats.
  8. JoeBrady
    That's a fair compromise.
  9. JoeBrady
    To be perfectly honest, I don't think that Valdez spends 5 minutes a day in logical thought. The idea that he thought he wanted to get out of the game, and then devised a plan to allow B2B HRs, and then hit Story and get thrown out and likely suspended without pay? 10% chance, at tops.
  10. JoeBrady
    I'd guess that it is just the opposite. If a guy is so hot-headed that he will throw at a teammate, then I guarantee that he is hot-headed enough to throw at an opposing player after B2B HRs.
  11. JoeBrady
    That part is easy: 84 wins Highest payroll in baseball 30th ranked farm. To me, it's like discussing Cora's firing. One can discuss the merits, but one cannot deny that there were certainly good reasons to do so.
  12. JoeBrady
    Which ones?
  13. JoeBrady
    Half of everything discussed in the RSN is based on conspiracy and conjecture. It couldn't possibly be that we had a DH and four good outfielders, and that Devers was a good, but not great, DH, making $32M.
  14. JoeBrady
    What the casuals are concerned about doesn't bother me. They're entitled to their opinions, but the fact that some of of them wanted (and still do) Alonso, Bregman, and Bichette over Contreras, Durbin and Suarez is not a consideration to me.
  15. JoeBrady
    -3/year
  16. JoeBrady
    Just for fun, let's call 2.5 fWAR the lowest possible threshold for success. That requires 7.5 fWAR for 2023-25. Only 3 players achieved that-Freeman, Altuve, and Springer. That's poor odds. And there are three years after that period to consider. The highest average for those three years is Goldschmidt with a 5.4/3. No one else exceeded 2.9.
  17. JoeBrady
    Very winnable game. Good pitching matchup, depending on if Gray is rusty, and the entire BP available, except the Throwin' Gamboan.
  18. JoeBrady
    I agree with this. I've probably seen 100 pitchers drill someone after B2B HRs. While it's possible that a renowned hot-head didn't lose his temper, but instead logically thought "how do I get out of this game?', I usually go for the simpler answers. $1M on the table and you have to guess right. I'm going with 'he lost it'. No doubt in my mind.].
  19. JoeBrady
    The net negative at SS is not a negative at all. When you have Util's, you expect some weaknesses. DHam's mildly negative -3/year at SS, is almost meaningless.
  20. JoeBrady
    He wasn't bad at all. He had one great year, and one bad year. In 2024, he had 8 HRs and 33 SBs in about a half-season of ABs. But too many RS fans take a binary approach that dictates that a player is either a star, or he should be cut.
  21. JoeBrady
    Probably not. In 2025, these are the players that had an fWAR of 2.5 or higher, by age group: 32 (Marte's current age) 10 altogether 33 Judge, Suarez, Diaz, Contreras 34 None 35 Springer, Freeman 36 None 37 None Past the age of 32, you enter into the area of 'possible, but less than likely'. From the age of 34-37, the only ones you get are by random outliers. ps-I do agree on the SSS. He should be better than he has shown this year. But that's the same for most FA. They usually have a good 1st year. If they don't, you are usually doomed.
  22. JoeBrady
    It isn't really a choice if most of the world uses CBT. Exactly no one in the world considers the LAD to be a #5 spending team. Or the the Angels are cheaper than the Pirates.
  23. JoeBrady
    Just go with Cots. They are almost 100% accurate.
  24. JoeBrady
    Too much focus on the current year and not the long term. Even a guy like Marte, who is a fine player, is also 32.205 years old. He might only have one good year left. So the $101M/6, that sounds good on paper, might wind up being more like $101M/2.
  25. JoeBrady
    So you're saying that Story should've been strapped?
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