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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    I thought you were commenting on the Py remark
  2. JoeBrady
    119.2 in 2025, including the RS. Using the usual +30 formula, and ignoring the injury, we theoretically have 58 IPs left. Good for at least 10 starts, and we are unlikely to see him until August.
  3. JoeBrady
    Unlikely that the O's are ready to concede.
  4. JoeBrady
    A lot of people want to be a bro, but don't to be THE bro. I think we had a lot of attitude when Papi was here, but Papi made that easier for everyone.
  5. JoeBrady
    Not altogether. Seen from a more intuitive perspective: If you are scoring 20% more than the average team, are you not an above-average offensive team? If your ERA is 20% lower than the average team, are you not an above-average pitching team? If you have above-average hitting and pitching, but are below .500 because you are 1-8 in one-games, are you not still an above-average team?
  6. JoeBrady
    5/1/04-8/1/04 (incl) 41-41 5/29/07-7/31/07 28-27 When Fred called us the biggest chokers in history 4/30/13-5/31/13 15-16 Late 2018 about .500 I think people vastly under-estimate how easy it is to 1-2 months with a .500 or worse record. A 10-game road trip, then a 6-game homestand against tough teams, followed by a 9-game road trip. Add in a few one-runs losses, and you can almost expect some negative (and positive) variance. There are formulas for this which I won't bore you with (since I don't know them), but if you flipped a coin 162 times, there is a decent chance it will come out with the same result 6-7 times in a row. Just for fun, the LAD, from 7/4-9/6, went 22-32.
  7. JoeBrady
    I don't think Early and Suarez are innings-challenged. If my math is correct, we can easily get another 10-11 GS from Early. I'd like to see a few piggy-back games with Tolle-Bello and Bennett-Bello. Bello could actually pitch twice through each rotation. It's a heck of a long-shot to work, but it could extend all three pitchers until September.
  8. JoeBrady
    Not bagging on Mayer, but he can go ion the right trade. But on a team that might be IP-challenged, I'd be hesitant in trading an SP. If Early's cap is maybe 150 IPs, he has ~ 60 IPs remaining. If he returns in mid-August, he has enough IPs to get thru the y/e with 10 starts of 6 innings each.
  9. JoeBrady
    He annoyed me so much during the manager switch that I don't care if he returns. The kids are supplying energy and excitement. And some degree of production. Slightly off target, but for all the talk about how Durbin compares to the other guys folks were interested in. Monasterio/Seigler have combined for 7 HRs. Nothing special, but the HR rate is higher than Bregman, Paredes, and Bichette.
  10. JoeBrady
    Do we want to upset the apple cart by trading a current member of the team?
  11. JoeBrady
    Contreras brings an attitude I have not seen in a long time.
  12. JoeBrady
    Except for Fred's trolling, I assume that no one means any harm. TBH, I often like when posters take a position that I consider illogical. That means it is time for a debate. That's the time I get to teach, or get taught. I enjoy learning things that I'd have considered counterintuitive.
  13. JoeBrady
    It won't be popular, but I'd go with Duran/JJ in LF. Our worst sOPS+ in the lineup is the lead-off slot. Our worst sOPS+ by position is 2B. IMHO, Arraez would be a perfect pickup.
  14. JoeBrady
    That's one of the things that separate baseball from the other sports. My left tackle either gets hurt or stays healthy, but doesn't otherwise get much better of much worse. Baseball has a huge amount of variance. That, in turn, requires is to look deeper into why teams are winning and losing. But only if fans want to.
  15. JoeBrady
    I'd have agreed throughout the winter, and up until about two weeks ago. I don't see anyone in this BP that I would cut or demote.
  16. JoeBrady
    What part of it is unsustainable? I've gone through the BR 28-day results. There will always be some players under and over their historical norms, but I don't see anything way off their projections.
  17. JoeBrady
    Good player, but we might be buying high. He's had a fairly pedestrian career so far. He's having a good year, but his HR/FB of 23% is likely unsustainable. He was scorching hot, but went 1-16 in his last 5 games with 5 Ks. And the Nats sat him on the 17and 19th. It's pretty unusual to see regulars benched in two games so close together. It feels like an undisclosed injury or something.
  18. JoeBrady
    The current RS players are 10-62 against Baz, with -0- HRs, one triple and one double.
  19. JoeBrady
    Is Mayer a bad influence? I always thought he was too quiet, if anything.
  20. JoeBrady
    No one in here knows. Probably 90% of the RS employees don't know. But as your medical accountant, I feel safe in saying that, if the doctor said he had to have surgery, one of two things could happen: They go for a second opinion. They have the surgery. Once upon a time, I had a torn meniscus. It wasn't a huge issue, and the doctor explained the pros and cons. I declined, and 15 years later, I did have the surgery. In both cases, I feel I made the right decision. The point being is that not all medical decisions are B&W. The doctor might have given the RS a wide range of options and outcomes.
  21. JoeBrady
    I actually like to see that in a trade. When teams have guys on the block that make no sense, like Clevinger in 2020, I suspect I am inheriting some issues. When guys are traded for payroll reasons, or rebuilds, that makes more sense to me.
  22. JoeBrady
    I'd probably go this route, assuming they'd value Early more than the others, which they might not. But if we did go this route, then I'd expect that the As would want to see Early pitch to assess his arm. I don't think we have the time for that.
  23. JoeBrady
    Rambunctious kids!
  24. JoeBrady
    Of course you could be right. If you called a raise with a 2-7 off-suit, and flopped 2-2-7, you'd be right, but I would still respect the opinion of the experts.
  25. JoeBrady
    With all due respect, I am still going to trust a doctor with 30 years of experience, who has seen the MRIs, and talked to the player, over that of an account, or whatever.
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