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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    Have you ever once in your life suggested a trade that actually happened? I doubt I ever did. Just getting the two teams right is probably under 5%.
  2. JoeBrady
    Probably 99%+ of all trade proposals don't happen. I just post them occasionally and read others, and react if I think it makes sense. I'm not sure why anyone would get upset over it. I know my proposals for Vientos, Tong, Burns, Crochet, etc., etc., etc., are pretty much unlikely.
  3. JoeBrady
    For all practical purposes, the RS lineup was without Anthony, Casas, Mayer, Bregman and Abreu.
  4. JoeBrady
    Tong is worth 3 WAR * 6 years. Vientos is a tougher call, but was worth 3.1 in 2024, in 413 ABs. My call would be 2.5 WAR * 4 years. Duran is worth roughly 4.6 * 3. My rough estimate is that Tong + Vientos has excess value of 14 WAR. In addition, Vientos is a better fit. If Duran gets pushed to DH, then his offense as a platoon partner to Yoshida is meh. As a righty, Vientos is more important.
  5. JoeBrady
    IMO, Tong + Vientos is a king's ransom IRT Arenado, I'd trade Yoshida straight up for Arenado. He'll be 35, which is pretty old, but the numbers were decent. FG projects him as a 2 WAR player, which is likely to be better than what we get from Yoshida. Plus he is a righty. He won't be any great addition, but I think he'll be more important than Yoshi.
  6. JoeBrady
    You don't necessarily need to do better. If you think the rotation is Crochet/Bello/Gray/Oviedo/Sandoval, then it becomes a matter of how much you lose by replacing Bello with Tolle or Early, and then comparing that to how much we gain by whatever we add in a Bello trade. Bello alone would get you a pretty decent infielder.
  7. JoeBrady
    As long as it is value-added. If Cincy is putting Greene on the table, but Ceddanne has to be included, I love you dude, but when you gotta go, you gotta go.
  8. JoeBrady
    You belong to a motorcycle gang?
  9. JoeBrady
    That's been my exact mantra for about 6 weeks.
  10. JoeBrady
    How we react is our fault. I know when some rumors are DOA. I know when I might get A, or I might get B, but I know I'm not getting both. I know I like players A, B & C, but I know there is some slight chance that the RS FO knows more than I. I know they have l/t plans on which I am not apprised. There is some chance that the FO might go under even the first payroll cap in order to reset the cap, and then sign Skubal for $450M/10. So I don't over-react.
  11. JoeBrady
    It didn't in 2025. This fall under the category of small sample size, but: There were 11 playoff series in 2025. In 7 of those series, the same team had more HRs AND a higher OBP. In the 4 playoff series where one team had more HRs and one team had a higher OBP, the team with the higher OBP won 3 of the 4 series.
  12. JoeBrady
    The way see it is similar. What are we going to do at 1st, 3rd & DH. Our 2025 stats for each: 1st .691 3B .777 DH .823 Contreras projects to .784. Mayer projects to .724. Yoshida projects to .766. On a net basis, we are down 5.6 points at 3 positions. Almost anything we add is likely to push us into positive numbers.
  13. JoeBrady
    I don't know that to be sure. I would argue that we need more OBP (and less Ks) than we need HRs.
  14. JoeBrady
    Fans speculate about every player. He's very unlikely to be available, as are most players. But Pitt and Cincy should part with some pitching, imo.
  15. JoeBrady
    Great saying. I will lay claim to owning it at some point. I won't try to convince anyone that believes that HRs are the only way to score runs. The correlation of OPS to runs scored is extremely high, and much higher than HRs. As a person that tries to attach math to as many things as possible, I'm at a loss trying to understand why people believe believe things that mathematically unlikely. FWIW, of the top-10 teams in OPS, 9 of them were in the top-10 in scoring. The only team that missed was the Athletics, and they finished 12th. The most interesting of the HR teams were the Angels. They finished 4th in HRs, but 25th in scoring, by virtue of being 28th in OBP, which itself was due to being last in Ks, and 29th in K/W.
  16. JoeBrady
    Are they not both both part of the Fellowship of the Freds?
  17. JoeBrady
    You either predict, or you don't. If someone wants to predict 85-88-91 wins,. then they they stand, or fall, with their predictions. But the Freds will NEVER predict a number.
  18. JoeBrady
    They were at $249M last year. So long as they get to the level this year, then they've spent the money. And they are already at $239M.
  19. JoeBrady
    You could still put your faith in Mayer and start him at 2nd. But I'd be fine starting him at 3rd and winging it with Romy/DHam.
  20. JoeBrady
    I think not. 1-If the author had solid insight, I think he'd have included at least some details. He doesn't even mention the number of years. 2-The price tag would put them at an all-time high. 3-And the fit is weak. If think they really want to start Lawler. If they add Bregman, then Lawler has to go to 2B, where he doesn't have a lot of reps, and then move Marte, with teams knowing they have no leverage. My guess is that this is just Boras trying to invent interest.
  21. JoeBrady
    I often wonder if adversity softens up their payroll demands. Mayer is just starting out, so no biggie. But Casas might be starting to be seen as damaged goods. The eclectic outlook is only tolerated when you mash. If I were him, I would surely be looking to lock up some guarantees. He probably hasn't made $6M yet, including the signing bonus and his 2026 salary.
  22. JoeBrady
    Hamilton.
  23. JoeBrady
    We are borderline desperate for OBP. I'm not a fan, mostly because he is lefty, but Donovan has a career OBP of .361. Our OBP's include .306, .308, .332, .295 and .317. Anthony has a .396, but that includes a BABIP of .404.
  24. JoeBrady
    I appreciate the leadership angle, but Bregman might only have two good years left. I wouldn't pay for four extra years, unless the AAV was low. $100M/4 dressed up to look like $150M/6.
  25. JoeBrady
    Donovan gets ~ $400k less in salary.
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