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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    1-More like that I am over-valuing Hernandez than under-valuing Duran. It's also an issue of fit. If we had a choice of trading Duran for Lodolo or Hernandez, I'd prefer Hernandez. We've discussed this before irt other #2 hypotheticals, but how much better will Lodolo be over our #6? FG projects Early and Tolle to have better ERAs. So for two years, I don't think your sure we will even improve over our current situation. There are very few pitching prospects that rank as high as Hernandez.
  2. JoeBrady
    I'm not sure what the question is. If Mayer is healthy, then Mayer, Romy, and DHam will be on the team. That only leaves you one roster spot.
  3. JoeBrady
    There is no reason to move Masa. He should be an above-average hitter.
  4. JoeBrady
    Unless we know that Mayer is hurt, then we only need one more IF. A combo of Romy, DHam and Mayer should be fine.
  5. JoeBrady
    Or teams don't have a real DH. When you have Ohtani, Schwarber and Devers, there is no real rotation. The teams that do rotate usually don't have a bat worthy of FT play.
  6. JoeBrady
    I think that's 100% correct. IMO, the RS would rather keep him than pay someone else $9M to play him. A couple of interesting notes: Yoshida projects to a .767 OPS. That's better than 18 teams at DH. Over 2023-24, with a 1,000 PA minimum,Yoshida ranked #47 in wOBA with a .338. That's decent hitting. Alonso, for $155M, is #37 with .343.
  7. JoeBrady
    I looked at it, and tried to apply my massive accounting skills to the issue, but it all seems pretty random. Some have great hitting, some have no one. Some teams have a higher payroll to support a dedicated DH. Some teams have a good-hitting catcher they want in the lineup 150 games.
  8. JoeBrady
    That's a heck of a chart. I'd like to gamble on Vientos, but given those numbers, the Mets might not be as eager a trading partner.
  9. JoeBrady
    Good point. I'd say just keep working the phones. If something big pops up, at any position, then you can circle back to anyone you were talking to.
  10. JoeBrady
    I wasn't sure they'd move him unless they were keen on adding Bregman and moving Lawlar to 2nd, which doesn't make sense to me. I'm not a Lawlar fan, but if they keep him, then Marte at 2nd and Lawlar at 3rd makes the most sense. I'm also not convinced that AZ wants another lefty outfielder. I know that Thomas has not progressed at all, but it just feels too early to give up on him.
  11. JoeBrady
    Pitt won't do that. Hernandez might be real good. I'd give them Crawford, Witherspoon, and DHam straight up for Hernandez. But I don't see Pitt's motive for that. The package would likely have to start with Duran.
  12. JoeBrady
    That's the nature with some people.
  13. JoeBrady
    I've been saying this for a few years. Crochet, Bello, and Gio were great. The rest of the rotation produced a 15-26 record with a 5.18 ERA. With a halfway decent #4-5-6-7-8, we'd have won the division, probably beaten the NYY, and have been favored over TO. We're better than last year, and accept that many feel we need more offense. But I'd feel more comfortable with a #2.
  14. JoeBrady
    It's why I added 'for all practical purposes'. Bregman wasn't awful, but not his usual hitting, and Abreu was still hurt.
  15. JoeBrady
    100% of this depends on which version of Vientos one believes. He was better than Alonso in 2024, and worse in 2025. Over the two years, Alonso averaged 35 HRs per 600 ABs, and Vientos averaged 31.5. It's fair to point out his weak 2025, but it is also fair to point out that he had a .778 in the second half, with 11 HRs in 191 ABs.
  16. JoeBrady
    I wouldn't trade Rafaela straight-up for Marte. I'd make a wager that he out-performs Marte over the next 6 years, and wouldn't be surprised if Rafaela doubled Marte's WAR/$$$ production.
  17. JoeBrady
    I'd bet that, at least for normal trades, BTV is close. Projecting prospects, and projecting players with long-term deals into their mid-30s and beyond, is the stuff that even professional GMs get wrong. But you 5 WAR player with one year left, versus my 3 WAR player with two years left, will be ballpark correct.
  18. JoeBrady
    Have you ever once in your life suggested a trade that actually happened? I doubt I ever did. Just getting the two teams right is probably under 5%.
  19. JoeBrady
    Probably 99%+ of all trade proposals don't happen. I just post them occasionally and read others, and react if I think it makes sense. I'm not sure why anyone would get upset over it. I know my proposals for Vientos, Tong, Burns, Crochet, etc., etc., etc., are pretty much unlikely.
  20. JoeBrady
    For all practical purposes, the RS lineup was without Anthony, Casas, Mayer, Bregman and Abreu.
  21. JoeBrady
    Tong is worth 3 WAR * 6 years. Vientos is a tougher call, but was worth 3.1 in 2024, in 413 ABs. My call would be 2.5 WAR * 4 years. Duran is worth roughly 4.6 * 3. My rough estimate is that Tong + Vientos has excess value of 14 WAR. In addition, Vientos is a better fit. If Duran gets pushed to DH, then his offense as a platoon partner to Yoshida is meh. As a righty, Vientos is more important.
  22. JoeBrady
    IMO, Tong + Vientos is a king's ransom IRT Arenado, I'd trade Yoshida straight up for Arenado. He'll be 35, which is pretty old, but the numbers were decent. FG projects him as a 2 WAR player, which is likely to be better than what we get from Yoshida. Plus he is a righty. He won't be any great addition, but I think he'll be more important than Yoshi.
  23. JoeBrady
    You don't necessarily need to do better. If you think the rotation is Crochet/Bello/Gray/Oviedo/Sandoval, then it becomes a matter of how much you lose by replacing Bello with Tolle or Early, and then comparing that to how much we gain by whatever we add in a Bello trade. Bello alone would get you a pretty decent infielder.
  24. JoeBrady
    As long as it is value-added. If Cincy is putting Greene on the table, but Ceddanne has to be included, I love you dude, but when you gotta go, you gotta go.
  25. JoeBrady
    You belong to a motorcycle gang?
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