2026 MLB post-Red Sox postseason thread

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't mind upgrades, but:

• The first consideration is how much are you upgrading.  Once you start off with an assumption that player X is a 105 players, then you need a 115 to even make the upgrade noticeable.  If you upgrade from Aroz to Yoshida, and Aroz adds 20 OPS points, you team has increased by only 2 points. 
• On the other hand, if you replace Arias with DLC, that might be 150-200 points higher, which is 15-20 points higher for the team.  That might be a difference of 7 places in overall OPS.  For the RS, and additional 15 points moves us from 18th to 8th.  And if was 20 points, it moves us from 18th to 6th.  That's a material difference.
• And defense counts.  If we moved Arias for Neto, the team OPS difference is maybe +6 points, which is not a lot, and the downgrade in defense might eat that up entirely.
• And then age and control and salary.  Some of these contracts are a disaster.  And if you add $30M in salary for a modest upgrade, that is $30M you cannot spend elsewhere.

But when you consistently use not enough upgrade from Yoshida to poo-poo offensive additions from DH (which you do) and then you do this again to poo-poo really any additions, by showing what we already have , if you squint, can be fine and good value.  You are just not aggressively team building enough. This is pure complacency.  

And multiple times now, we have had to rely on guys like Monasterio, Siegler, Sogard, and the year before that it was Eaton and Lowe and Romy who worked out but was literally waived by one of the worst teams in modern history And Dom Smith even the year before that.....And these guys filled in so well, better than could have been expected.  So we've had a lot of good luck in recent seasons.  But what this shows is consistent attrition during the season.

And when you try to be hyper efficient like examining what you already have in place, and breaking it down to WAR/$$ , you can and always will talk yourself out of improving.  But this lack of aggression is exactly how you get stuck in 3rd place and first round playoff exit.  The meh, good enough, and good value is the literal road map to how you get where we have been.  Thats like 5 straight years in 3rd of fifth and no playoff series wins.

Theyve done the Joe Brady model.  Very efficient. Very budget conscious.  And the teams they build are consistently thin at the plate because they have too much optimism baked in (and when there are predictably injuries, you can say "Ferrarri hit by a meteor!" "Ferrari hit by a meteor").  And you need to do this, because every single year you cheerlead and defend and bootlick and carry water for an offseason that leads to a team falling on its face.

And thats why i was laughing at you when even before the yankees seeries, you were like we are going to lose, we arent goig to hit, and here is why we should accept that and btw not improve our offense this next offseason either.

Our offense was not a ferrari that got hit by a meteor and i jsut hope nobody ever again accuses me of using strawmen when im like there are people here who applauded everything weve done and even after flopping, have learned 0 lessons and are back to assuming no injuries, trying to be as efficient as possible.

The jury is in.  The story is settled.  Those who said we werent going to hit, which was a lot of us were right.  The bootlickers lost and I understand that people will go to extreme lengths to justify a victory lap, but maybe, just maybe you should consider the possibility that the last 7 seasons ending in disappointment has something to do with something that we are doing wrong from a teambuilding perspective.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Rafaela would be more surprising that Abreu, but both have much more trade value than Duran. They have a weird fixation on keeping Duran so it wouldn't be shocking for Duran to be the Opening Day CFer. 

Surprising:

1. Crochet (unrealistic)

2. Adley (unlikely)

3. Suarez (unlikely)

4. Contreras 

5. Whitlock

6. Anthony

7. Tolle

 

I would put Cedanne on this list of "guys I would be surprised if they traded" and it felt like you were heading that way , maybe hes 8 and right below your cutoff. But I would certainly be surprised, so he would make my list.  

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

I would put Cedanne on this list of "guys I would be surprised if they traded" and it felt like you were heading that way , maybe hes 8 and right below your cutoff. But I would certainly be surprised, so he would make my list.  

I think it's less surprising that they'd trade Rafaela than any of the guys on my list. I like Rafaela as a 8th/9th hitter and GG CFer and can overlook his bad approach at the plate. Can the Red Sox? There's been trade rumors in the past (MIA). 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The jury is in.  The story is settled.  Those who said we werent going to hit, which was a lot of us were right.  The bootlickers lost and I understand that people will go to extreme lengths to justify a victory lap, but maybe, just maybe you should consider the possibility that the last 7 seasons ending in disappointment has something to do with something that we are doing wrong from a teambuilding perspective.

The addition to next year:

Healthy Roman

Mead

Abreu hitting RHP again

I honestly don't believe the Sox are going to make any wild swings in FA (Sato, Suzuki) to fix the offense. They could make some trades, but those are impossible to predict with Breslow and most of his moves have been pitching/defense so far. I think they are under firm budget restrictions and depending on the new CBA, there may not be much to spend due to their tightwad owner. Wait til 2028? 

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The addition to next year:

Healthy Roman

Mead

Abreu hitting RHP again

I honestly don't believe the Sox are going to make any wild swings in FA (Sato, Suzuki) to fix the offense. They could make some trades, but those are impossible to predict with Breslow and most of his moves have been pitching/defense so far. I think they are under firm budget restrictions and depending on the new CBA, there may not be much to spend due to their tightwad owner. Wait til 2028? 

Accepting and cheerleading are different.  Im not confident there wont be a major shake up, but I dont mind reading people who feel most likely, there wont be any offensive splashes.

But it can be frustrating when people cheer fot it.  And I dont mind just general cheapness. I mean like the max efficiency , thin offensive model we've gone with the last 3-4 years.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The addition to next year:

Healthy Roman

Mead

Abreu hitting RHP again

I honestly don't believe the Sox are going to make any wild swings in FA (Sato, Suzuki) to fix the offense. They could make some trades, but those are impossible to predict with Breslow and most of his moves have been pitching/defense so far. I think they are under firm budget restrictions and depending on the new CBA, there may not be much to spend due to their tightwad owner. Wait til 2028? 

Still hanging on hopes for little A?Mead who knows if he will really be any kind of an addition more than just a body, or not. Abreu is not really an addition. 

[Old Red]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it's less surprising that they'd trade Rafaela than any of the guys on my list. I like Rafaela as a 8th/9th hitter and GG CFer and can overlook his bad approach at the plate. Can the Red Sox? There's been trade rumors in the past (MIA). 

It’s amazing that RAF Man has never really been a good enough hitter for you guys. Some wanted to just make him a utility guy. He’s fine as is IMO.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Accepting and cheerleading are different.  Im not confident there wont be a major shake up, but I dont mind reading people who feel most likely, there wont be any offensive splashes.

But it can be frustrating when people cheer fot it.  And I dont mind just general cheapness. I mean like the max efficiency , thin offensive model we've gone with the last 3-4 years.

I think there's a good chance they kinda run it back again and hope that 40 game stretch is what we see over a longer period from the offense. 😮‍💨

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s amazing that RAF Man has never really been a good enough hitter for you guys. Some wanted to just make him a utility guy. He’s fine as is IMO.

He's fine as is, but Roman sucks, right? 🙃

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He's fine as is, but Roman sucks, right? 🙃

Really that’s where you’re going with this?Come on man you’re better than that. RAF Man is not the Roman Empire who had talk about him being a MVP candidate before last season started. If little A would have put up some numbers like RAF Man did this past year he wouldn’t have been looked down on as much. RAF Man is never going to be Mookie at the plate, and there is a possibility that little A won’t be the RAF Man at the plate.

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think there's a good chance they kinda run it back again and hope that 40 game stretch is what we see over a longer period from the offense. 😮‍💨

You’re hoping a 40 game stretch, which contained a once in a lifetime 15 game winning streak will happen over a longer period of time? 🤔

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The addition to next year:

Healthy Roman

Mead

Abreu hitting RHP again

I honestly don't believe the Sox are going to make any wild swings in FA (Sato, Suzuki) to fix the offense. They could make some trades, but those are impossible to predict with Breslow and most of his moves have been pitching/defense so far. I think they are under firm budget restrictions and depending on the new CBA, there may not be much to spend due to their tightwad owner. Wait til 2028? 

Full year of Rutschman,  too.   Certainly an upgrade over the 100 or so games of Narvaez and Wong.

Biggest lynchpin right now is Duran.  One of the best offensive players in MLB in 2024, one of the best offensive players in Boston in 2025.  One of the worst offensive players in MLB in 2026.  Can he bounce back?  Do the Sox even gamble on him for 2027?

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You’re hoping a 40 game stretch, which contained a once in a lifetime 15 game winning streak will happen over a longer period of time? 🤔

They are hoping. I'm not hoping or expecting.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They are hoping. I'm not hoping or expecting.

Which team was the real Red Sox? The team before, and after the Magic carpet ride, or during the magic carpet ride with all their P&P players?

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

Full year of Rutschman,  too.   Certainly an upgrade over the 100 or so games of Narvaez and Wong.

Biggest lynchpin right now is Duran.  One of the best offensive players in MLB in 2024, one of the best offensive players in Boston in 2025.  One of the worst offensive players in MLB in 2026.  Can he bounce back?  Do the Sox even gamble on him for 2027?

Adley's OPS should be a little higher next season, but if Abreu can still hit LHP and go back to hitting RHP like he did previously he'd be a force. 

There were 6 players with 100 PA's for the Sox in '25 with a higher OPS than Duran. He was ok, but I wouldn't say he was one of their best. Because of his skillset, I think his age will be a big factor in the wheels just coming off all at once. Maybe he's already there? Maybe there is a couple more years? I just think there's enough going on with the Jarren Duran experience that I'd like to move on. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

This is just revisionist.  If you would open your ears, you would hear that plenty of people were very concerned about the offense going into last year from posters here to pundits all around.  

The story of the 2026 Red Sox is not OMG, worst luck of any team in MLB.  Its not who could have foreseen these injuries and unreliability from Story and Duran (two volatile players).  Who could have known that Anthony may get hurt when he just got hurt the year before.

Most neutral assessors assessed us as offensively thin and weak.  You proclaimed that we were 2nd best team in baseball spoken about how we were set up historically great going forward, and that Brez should get exec of the year.  That OBP would drive the offense to heights.  And it was so far outside reality.

Well reality came home, and as many knew what would happen our noodlebats were our demise 2 years running.  6th straight year with no playoff series wins.

And instead of learning or listening or acknowledging you (predictably) return to somehow justify taking a victory lap despite being maybe the most wrong.  When I debate with others. They are debating , telling me, that nobody is saying the stuff that you say. Consistently.

They say stuff like nobody was super pumped about our offense. We all knew we could use another big bat.  And you show up and are like i am still glad we didnt get alonso, bregman you see our offense was a ferrarri that got hit by a meteor.  These guys wouldnt have helped.

And no, its just not reality.

As often we spoke of trading Duran, we kept him as a starter, but he was "good depth" for Anthony, until he sucked quicker than anyone expected.

We spent $6M on IKF and traded for Seigler & Monasterio as infield depth. (We already had Romy, Cheng and Eaton.)

We planned for injuries.

I know you want 9 all stars in the line-up, but all star bench players is going to far, even for you.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

As often we spoke of trading Duran, we kept him as a starter, but he was "good depth" for Anthony, until he sucked quicker than anyone expected.

We spent $6M on IKF and traded for Seigler & Monasterio as infield depth. (We already had Romy, Cheng and Eaton.)

We planned for injuries.

I know you want 9 all stars in the line-up, but all star bench players is going to far, even for you.

Thats not at all what I am saying. Im specifially talking about things like not wanting to sign alonso because then masas money would go to waste (what he literally just said). And thats what I mean when I say assume injuries.  Backups are irrelevant.  If Michael Jordan gets hurt, you dont look at your backup shooting guard to save you.  You look at Pippen.  

Depth is having an abundance of hitting that can cover for each other.  Not check off positions like a checklist.  Kind of like when I told you that in a way Rice covers for Judge because he picks up the slack when Judge gets hurt.  

Penciling Masa in at DH hurts our overall depth because hes a below average hitter for a DH.  If you go into the year with 3 good hitters, 3 so-so hitters, and 3 bad ones, and 1 or 2 of your good hitters gets hurt, that will be more likley to undo your goals than if you started with 7 good hitters.  If Tatum gets hurt, you can still win games because of Brown.  Hes more important to winning without Tatum than Tatums position backup.  This is common sense.  

Our offense was predictably thin.  And Im not talking about our backups.  Im talking about already not having enough firepower top to bottom, and so when Anthony got hurt and Story got hurt (predictable) we went to crap. But Joe paints it as a meteor hitting a ferrari, which is just excuse making and false.  But what bothers me is you and MVP are often telling me "I think we all knew going into last year that we needed another bat"

No, that is the opposite of what Joe is saying. Now I understnad that the stuff he says is so out there that its hard to accept.  And so it makes sense to assume that you are misunderstanding.  But no, he says the exact stuff that you say nobody on here says when you often accuse me of making up strawmen.

Joe Brady said we didnt need Alonso because we had Masa.  Joe Brady was wrong.  Joe Brady instead of learning is doubling down instead of accepting he was too complacent.  And when our offense was hilariously and laughably bad, so how does Joe spin that to still be right when hehigh fived everyone that we didnt get hitters? Well, he needs to create a narrative that our season was sunk by unforeseeable bad luck and injury, and there was nothing we could have done or seen which is hilarious because people like you and MVP tell me that nobody was ever on here saying that we didnt need more hitting. 

Joe Brady was trying to trade hitting for pitching in APril.  

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats not at all what I am saying. Im specifially talking about things like not wanting to sign alonso because then masas money would go to waste (what he literally just said). And thats what I mean when I say assume injuries.  Backups are irrelevant.  If Michael Jordan gets hurt, you dont look at your backup shooting guard to save you.  You look at Pippen.  

Depth is having an abundance of hitting that can cover for each other.  Not check off positions like a checklist.  Kind of like when I told you that in a way Rice covers for Judge because he picks up the slack when Judge gets hurt.  

Penciling Masa in at DH hurts our overall depth because hes a below average hitter for a DH.  If you go into the year with 3 good hitters, 3 so-so hitters, and 3 bad ones, and 1 or 2 of your good hitters gets hurt, that will be more likley to undo your goals than if you started with 7 good hitters.  If Tatum gets hurt, you can still win games because of Brown.  Hes more important to winning without Tatum than Tatums position backup.  This is common sense.  

Our offense was predictably thin.  And Im not talking about our backups.  Im talking about already not having enough firepower top to bottom, and so when Anthony got hurt and Story got hurt (predictable) we went to crap. But Joe paints it as a meteor hitting a ferrari, which is just excuse making and false.  But what bothers me is you and MVP are often telling me "I think we all knew going into last year that we needed another bat"

No, that is the opposite of what Joe is saying. Now I understnad that the stuff he says is so out there that its hard to accept.  And so it makes sense to assume that you are misunderstanding.  But no, he says the exact stuff that you say nobody on here says when you often accuse me of making up strawmen.

Joe Brady said we didnt need Alonso because we had Masa.  Joe Brady was wrong.  Joe Brady instead of learning is doubling down instead of accepting he was too complacent.  And when our offense was hilariously and laughably bad, so how does Joe spin that to still be right when hehigh fived everyone that we didnt get hitters? Well, he needs to create a narrative that our season was sunk by unforeseeable bad luck and injury, and there was nothing we could have done or seen which is hilarious because people like you and MVP tell me that nobody was ever on here saying that we didnt need more hitting. 

Joe Brady was trying to trade hitting for pitching in APril.  

I think you explained this pretty darn well as you have before. If they had signed Alonso, and Schwaber as was suggested last offseason two big bats would have been great, and if one went down one would have been good.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/29/2026 at 3:09 PM, moonslav59 said:

As always, you made some great points. I will add that if you can upgrade from 105 to 110 without hurting another slot, then as many as them you can do, why not?

That was covered in my final point with the salary.  You will pay for any improvement, whether it is $$$ or prospects.  The question is, all things being equal, do I want to improve from 105 to 110, but have to give up Owen Hull?  My answer is no.  We can all debate how much you want to give up, but the marginal cost/marginal benefit has to be considered.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/29/2026 at 3:14 PM, mvp 78 said:

Wong "can play" 2b. Conteras "can play" C. Even Duran "can play" 2b. At some point, you have to do what's best for the team though.

They can, but they don't.  Sato hits well enough to DH, but would likely be used at 3B or LF if things went wrong.  That said, but if he can't, I doubt he will hit well enough to be a pure DH.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/29/2026 at 4:26 PM, notin said:

I do think they trade a starting position player.  But too often, they surprise me with whom.  

If it’s not Duran, who would be a surprising but realistic trade candidate?  Contreras? Rafaela? Abreu?

I would consider trading Contreras, and I like the guy.  But at age 34, we might've caught lightening in a bottle.  Expecting a repeat at age 35 might be pushing it.  Other GMs will have that in mind as well, but it is always worth listening to.

[oldtimer]

It was interesting to see two low budget teams reach  the world series this year. Both had excellent pitching. In addition they featured strong defennse, speed and hitters that put the ball in play. Neither were major homerun threats, but they put offensive pressure on with base stealing and could win without pounding out a large RBI total.

It would be interesting to see what the Red Sox will do. Has management decided what identity the team will try to forge going forward? Clearly every team needs excellent pitching and the Sox are in decent shape; So what are we striving for in the field? Our defense is good in the outfield. Anthony is our weakest link there and is still satisfactory.

In the infield Durbin plays excellent defense at 3rd, Story not so good at SS but Arias could be an improvement.  Mead may just be  average at 2nd and Contreras average defensively at 1st. Rauschman is a good defensive catcher. We need to retain an acceptable utility crew since we seem to suffer a lot of in season injuries.

So what is our offensive identity and what should it be? Would we be satisfied with a focus on players who look to put the ball in play and achieve high OBP's or should we look for a star who can give us 40 HR's? Maybe there are acquisitions who can do both but at what cost? My view of our current players offense:

Anthony - unproven and regressed last season but still has major upward potential

Rafaela - still swings at too many bad pitches

Abreu - concentrates on HR swing, doesn't shorten up when in pitchers count

Durbin - at times looked like a decent contact hitter

Story - Declining and inconsistent hitter with some power

Arias - Looks to have high potential but unproven

Mead - One good year but unproven with Sox

Contreras - our best hitter and has decent power

Rauschman - He showed me consistent contact

Be nice to have a have a DH that could help us without the need to be a defensive whiz. 

One other point is a manager that goes all out to close the winnable games. The Brewers manager seemed to follow that philosopy, where at times Red Sox managers would rest players with our best pitchers up and by doing so contribute to losing winnable games.

 

[notin]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Adley's OPS should be a little higher next season, but if Abreu can still hit LHP and go back to hitting RHP like he did previously he'd be a force. 

There were 6 players with 100 PA's for the Sox in '25 with a higher OPS than Duran. He was ok, but I wouldn't say he was one of their best. Because of his skillset, I think his age will be a big factor in the wheels just coming off all at once. Maybe he's already there? Maybe there is a couple more years? I just think there's enough going on with the Jarren Duran experience that I'd like to move on. 

Duran lead the 2025 Sox in PA, 2b, 3b (where he lead the AL), XBH, total bases and walks and was second in runs scored, hits, RBI and SB on a team that finished 7th in MLB in scoring.   I don’t get how you don’t think he was one of their best offensive players…

[notin]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

I think you explained this pretty darn well as you have before. If they had signed Alonso, and Schwaber as was suggested last offseason two big bats would have been great, and if one went down one would have been good.

And if the Sox also stole Elly De La Cruz and kidnapped Aaron Judge, it would have been great.  Not to mention those moves, as illegal as they seem, were more likely than  signing both Alonso and Schwarber…

[notin]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I would consider trading Contreras, and I like the guy.  But at age 34, we might've caught lightening in a bottle.  Expecting a repeat at age 35 might be pushing it.  Other GMs will have that in mind as well, but it is always worth listening to.

The Sox aren’t likely to improve offensively if they trade Contreras given the available options to replace him.  Plus they would still have too many outfielders…

[notin]

5 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Joe Brady was trying to trade hitting for pitching in APril.  

Can you blame him? Have you seen our hitters??

No pleasing some people.  First he wants to rebuild the offense.  Next he wants to keep all the hitters😉

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The story of the 2026 Red Sox is not OMG, worst luck of any team in MLB. 

 And you show up and are like i am still glad we didnt get alonso, bregman you see our offense was a ferrarri that got hit by a meteor.  These guys wouldnt have helped.

And no, its just not reality.

1-The injuries aren't a story.  It's an article.  And it's by Fangraphs.  Feel free to write them and let them know this injury thing is a farce.

2-I've posted the numbers.  You must have read some of the numbers, so I assume you have no interest in a data-driven discussion.  And that's fine.  But Bregman + Alonso is marginally better than Contreras + Durbin, especially if one acknowledges the extra $50M would've cost them Suarez + Gray.

That's the reality.  It's not even discussion-worthy.  Contreras+Durbin+Gray+Suarez >>>>>>>>Bregman+Alonso.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Joe Brady was trying to trade hitting for pitching in APril.  

=======================

LOL!!!  You were the one that convinced me to keep Duran.  Are mis-remembering agin?